The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.87% Vs The XAU Today

After being -0.33% vs the XAU yesterday and -0.56% vs the XAU on 3-29. The Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle began less than an hour into Thursday's session (see 5 day chart below). In the Wave 4 short term downcycle NEM and the XAU will probably fill some of their recently created downside gaps: The XAU has downside gaps at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40, and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 51.49 from 3-30's open, at 49.46 from 3-27, and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon. See 5 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Monthly Upcycle's Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle

began early yesterday. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle. The NEM Lead Indicator is a modestly bearish -0.30% vs the XAU right now, and was a bearish -0.33% and -0.56% the past two days. The XAU has downside gaps at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 51.49 from 3-30's open, at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility rose +4.98% to 33.320 on Thursday 3-30 from 31.740 on Wednesday 3-29 versus a +3.13% rise in the XAU on 3-30, which is an unusually large (> 6%) +8.11% rise in fear (+4.98% + +3.13% = +8.11%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +8.11%, therefore fear rose by +8.11%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Friday 3-31's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +21.72% today to 0.84112 from 0.69105 on Thursday that portends some weakness today because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed didn't spike the punch this week, which is a major negative short term, and, a Wave 4 short term downcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Fed Credit Fell -$6.726 Billion In The Week Ending 3-29-06

Federal Reserve Bank Credit fell a substantial -$6.726 Billion in the week ending 3-29-06: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. The Wave 4 short term downcycle probably began today. See 5 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.33% Vs The XAU Today

After being -0.56% vs the XAU yesterday. Much of today's strength occurred during the gap up at the open, thanks to the Fed's usual Thursday punch spiking: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

The Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle appears to have begun less than an hour into today's session (see 5 day chart below). In the Wave 4 short term downcycle the NEM and XAU will probably fill some of their recently created downside gaps: The XAU has downside gaps created at today's open at 138.84, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 51.49 from today's open, at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24. See 5 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

................More Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle

Today was a surprise and it looks like the Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle is hitting a cycle high today. I sold on Monday and did very well, so I have no complaints. Today is Fed punch spiking day which added to strength.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle. The NEM Lead Indicator is a modestly bullish +0.20% vs the XAU right now, but was a bearish -0.56% yesterday. The XAU has downside gaps created at today's open at 138.84, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 51.49 from today's open, at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility rose +3.34% to 31.740 on Wednesday 3-29 from 30.715 on Tuesday 3-28 versus a +3.48% rise in the XAU on 3-29, which is an unusually large (> 6%) +6.82% rise in fear (+3.34% + +3.48% = +6.82%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +6.82%, therefore fear rose by +6.82%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Thursday 3-29's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a very sharp (3-6%) +4.29% today to 0.69105 from 0.72204 on Wednesday that portends some weakness today because it's a very sharp rise in complacency. The Fed didn't spike the punch this week until today (Thursday is punch spiking day), which is a major negative short term, and, a Wave 4 short term downcycle is or should soon be in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

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.......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.56% Vs The XAU Today

NEM's Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle began on Monday, leading to the downside, HUI and the XAU's probably began today, with Wave 3 in rollover/flat/topping mode. In the Wave 4 short term downcycle the XAU will probably fill it's downside gaps at 133.40 from 3-27 and at 130.03 from 3-24 in the next day or two, and, NEM has downside gaps at 49.46 from 3-27 and at 49.24 from 3-24 that probably will be filled. See 5 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle Began On Monday

Leading to the downside, HUI and the XAU's probably will begin today, with Wave 3 in rollover/flat/topping mode. The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.50% vs the XAU right now. In the Wave 4 short term downcycle the XAU will probably fill it's downside gaps at 133.40 from 3-27 and at 130.03 from 3-24 in the next day or two, and, NEM has downside gaps at 49.46 from 3-27 and at 49.24 from 3-24 that probably will be filled. See 5 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Monthly Upcycle Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle Is In Effect

Since Monday for HUI, NEM, and the XAU ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= ). The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle, which is in Wave 4 down now.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.40% vs the XAU right now, but was a bullish +1.23% yesterday, after being a bearish -0.73% on Monday and a very bearish -2.14% on Friday 3-24. The XAU has a downside gap created at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24 that should get filled this week. NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility rose +1.84% to 30.715 on Tuesday 3-28 from 30.160 on Monday 3-27 versus a -2.24% decline in the XAU on 3-28, which is a modest (0.25-0.49%) +0.40% rise in complacency (+1.84% + -2.24% = -0.40%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.40%, therefore complacency rose by +0.40%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Wednesday 3-29's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +10.59% today to 0.72204 from 0.65287 on Monday that portends some weakness today because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed isn't spiking the punch this week, which is a major negative short term, and, a Wave 4 short term downcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The NEM Lead Indicator = +1.27% Vs The XAU Today

In the Wave 4 short term downcycle, that began with yesterday's HUI/NEM/XAU short term cycle highs, the XAU will probably fill it's downside gaps at 133.40 from 3-27 and at 130.03 from 3-24 in the next day or two, and, NEM has downside gaps at 49.46 from 3-27 and at 49.24 from 3-24 that probably will be filled. See 5 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Monthly Upcycle Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle Is In Effect

Began yesterday for HUI, NEM, and the XAU ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= ).

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle, which is in Wave 4 down now. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +1.20% vs the XAU right now but was a bearish -0.73 yesterday and a very bearish -2.14% on Friday 3-24. The XAU has a downside gap created at yesterday's open at 133.40 and NEM has one at 49.46 that could get filled this week.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility rose +3.98% to 30.160 on Monday 3-27 from 29.005 on Friday 3-24 versus a +2.87% rise in the XAU on 3-27, which is an unusually large (> 6%) +6.85% rise in fear (+3.98% + +2.87% = +6.85%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +6.85%, therefore fear rose by +6.85%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Tuesday 3-28's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a significant (0.50-1.99%) +0.96% today to 0.65287 from 0.65917 on Friday that portends some weakness today because it's a significant rise in complacency. The Fed isn't spiking the punch this week, which is a major negative short term, and a Wave 4 short term downcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.73% Vs The XAU Today

After being a very bearish -2.14% vs the XAU on Friday. The NEM Lead Indicator suggests that the XAU could fill it's downside gap at 133.40 from today's open in the next day or two and NEM has a downside gap at 49.46 from today's open. HUI, NEM, XAU's Wave 3 short term upcycle may have peaked today: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Monthly Upcycle Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle Is In Effect

Began 3-21 for HUI and on 3-23 for NEM/XAU, which put in double bottom cycle lows with 3-21's cycle lows. The Monthly Upcycle Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle may have peaked early today or is in the process of doing so. Since NEM is outperforming the XAU by about +0.40% right now, that suggests that HUI and the XAU may not have hit Wave 3 Short Term Cycle Highs yet.

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle, which is in Wave 3 up now. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU right now but was a very bearish -2.14% on Friday 3-24. The XAU has a downside gap created at today's open at 133.40 that could get filled this week.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility fell -5.47% to 29.005 on Friday 3-24 from 30.685 on 3-23 versus a +2.59% rise in the XAU on 3-24, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.88% rise in complacency (-5.47% + +2.59% = -2.88%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -2.88%, therefore complacency rose by +2.88%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 3-27's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.72% today to 0.65917 from 0.64172 on Friday that portends some strength today because it's a sharp rise in fear. The Fed has spiked the punch recently (but not today) which is a major positive since the Wave 3 short term upcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

................................Weekly Update Ready

At http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See 1 year charts that show the likely Elliot Wave points for the major upcycle since 5-16-05 and show the monthly upcycle's Wave 2 short term cycle lows last week that occurred on Tuesday for HUI and on Thursday for NEM/XAU (double bottom with Tuesday's cycle lows). See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

...............Disclaimer

Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered investment advisor. Investing in stocks involves risk. Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered broker or dealer. Each investor has to ascertain what percentage if any of one's investments should be allocated to growth stocks or gold/silver stocks. Please see a financial planner, registered investment advisor or at least do your homework and decide what is right for your situation. Growth stocks and gold/silver stocks tend to be extremely volatile which creates opportunities but also can be very painful and risky. Each investor must take complete responsibility for his or her investing actions. Joe Ferrazzano should be considered as one source of information out of many from which to derive a decision on investing.

..............................New Charts Uploaded

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) began on 3-10-06 shortly after the XAU filled it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22. HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in a monthly upcycle (since 3-10-06) Wave 3 short term upcycle since Tuesday for HUI and since Thursday for NEM/XAU (put in double bottoms with Tuesday's cycle lows). The XAU could fill it's downside gap at 130.03 from Friday's open on Monday or Tuesday given Friday's very bearish NEM Lead Indicator at -2.14% versus the XAU. See 5 day HUI chart (XAU's yahoo chart is messed up by a weird spike): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The NEM Lead Indicator = -2.14% Vs The XAU Today

The NEM Lead Indicator was very bearish today which suggests that the XAU could fill it's downside gap at 130.03 from today's open on Monday or Tuesday. A huge spike move occurred from early yesterday until early today for HUI/NEM/XAU, in which they rose 5-6%+. That spike move should significantly correct on Monday. HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in a Wave 3 short term upcycle since Tuesday for HUI and since yesterday for NEM/XAU (put in double bottoms with Tuesday's cycle lows). .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Monthly Upcycle Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle Is In Effect

And should peak next Tuesday at about the time of the Fed rate decision at 2:15 pm EST.

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle, which is in Wave 3 up now. The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bullish +0.15% vs the XAU right now. The XAU has a downside gap created at Today's open at 130.03 that could get filled today, but, given the monthly and short term upcycles, it probably won't get filled. NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -6.83% to 30.685 on Thursday 3-23 from 32.935 on Wednesday 3-22 versus a +1.48% rise in the XAU on 3-23, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +5.35% rise in complacency (-6.83% + +1.48% = -5.35%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -5.35%, therefore complacency rose by +5.35%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Friday 3-24's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose a very sharp (3-6%) +4.86% today to 0.64172 from 0.61197 on Thursday that portends some strength today because it's a very sharp rise in fear. The Fed has spiked the punch recently which is a major positive since the Wave 3 short term upcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The NEM Lead Indicator = +0.89% Vs The XAU Today

Which is a great sign. There was an early scare, with NEM and the XAU putting in a double bottom with their early Tuesday cycle lows (made slightly lower cycle lows today), but HUI, NEM, and the XAU should all be in a Wave 3 short term upcycle now, that may peak at about the time the Fed rate decision occurs next Tuesday. There tends to be a sell the news effect after Fed rate decisions. Yes they will raise another 0.25%. .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Reliable Lead Indicator NEM Is Leading To The Upside

Right now by a wide margin of +0.90% versus the XAU, which is a great sign. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . The Fed has spiked the punch recently which is a major positive since the Wave 3 short term upcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

....................It's Fed Punch Spiking Day

And the Fed provided a massive $15.25 Billion in repos today: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
which should soon firm things up since HUI's Wave 3 short term upcycle began on Tuesday, but NEM and the XAU put in double bottoms today, with NEM taking out Tuesday's cycle low (so far) by 5 cents and the XAU did so by 23 cents, which means that their Wave 3 short term upcycle probably began today.

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle, which is in Wave 3 now. The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bullish +0.10% vs the XAU right now. NEM has an upside gap created at Tuesday's open at 49.22 that should get filled in the next day or two. NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -2.24% to 32.935 on Wednesday 3-22 from 33.690 on Tuesday 3-21 versus a -0.01% decline in the XAU on 3-22, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.25% rise in complacency (-2.24% + -0.01% = -2.25%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -2.25%, therefore complacency rose by +2.25%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Thursday 3-22's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +7.59% today to 0.61197 from 0.56881 on Wednesday that portends some weakness today because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed has spiked the punch recently which is a major positive since the Wave 3 short term upcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Perfect 32-0 Record In My Taxable Accounts Last Year

I'm feeling like the 1972 Miami Dolphins right now because I had a perfect 32-0 trading record in my taxable trading accounts last year. I just finished entering all my trades in Schedule D. My record was 87.10% winning trades in 2004 in my taxable accounts. In 2004 I didn't use Elliot Wave or Fed Credit.

www.JoeFRocks.com/

The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.14% Vs The XAU Today

There was some late session weakness but a Wave 3 short term upcycle began early yesterday, and, tomorrow is Fed punch spiking day. The FED has added massive credit every Thursday the past two months plus which drives index fund trading. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The NEM Lead Indicator = +0.65% Vs The XAU Right Now

A truly great indicator. A Wave 3 short term upcycle began early yesterday, and, tomorrow is Fed punch spiking day. The FED has added massive credit every Thursday the past two months plus which drives index fund trading. Buckle up! http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

HUI/NEM/XAU's Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle Bottomed Yesterday

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle, which is in Wave 3 now since early yesterday. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.75% vs the XAU right now. The monthly upcycle's (since 3-10-06) Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle bottomed yesterday, and, NEM has an upside gap created at yesterday's open at 49.22 that should get filled in the next day or two.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -2.59% to 33.690 on Tuesday 3-21 from 34.585 on Monday 3-20 versus a -1.92% decline in the XAU on 3-21, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +4.51% rise in complacency (-2.59% + -1.92% = -4.51%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -4.51%, therefore complacency rose by +4.51%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Wednesday 3-21's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a significant (0.50-1.99%) -0.58% today to 0.56881 from 0.57210 on Tuesday that portends some weakness today. The Fed has spiked the punch recently which is a major positive since the Wave 3 short term upcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Looks Like The Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle Bottomed Today

The XAU barely filled it's upside gap created today at 130.66, peaking at 130. 67, and, NEM peaked at 49.15 versus the upside gap created today at 49.22. After underperforming the XAU by -0.60% early on NEM narrowed the gap to -0.21% by session's end, which means that NEM outperformed the XAU for most of the session, which is a positive sign because the NEM Lead Indicator turned positive. The Fed's massive punch spiking in recent days is a major positive also: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE

The latest COT data is bullish (I wrote this last weekend): The latest COT data (as of 3-14-06) is bullish since the gold Commercial Traders traded substantially net long and the gold Speculators traded substantially net short, both of which portend strength, but weakness is likely early in the week. The gold Commercial Traders added 7857 (added 2767 the prior week, sold 347 the prior week, added 228, 4848, 4679 the prior three weeks, sold 15,347 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and covered 10,609 (covered 5047 the prior week, added 4974 the prior week, covered 1317 the prior week, added 1765 the prior week, covered 9233, 18,701, 8435 the prior three weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator), but weakness is likely early this week due to gold stocks' monthly upcycle Wave 2 short term downcycle. The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold an unusually large (> 10% decrease in long position) 23,450 (sold 3373 the prior week, added 4662 the prior week, sold 5614, 10,272, 5910 the prior three weeks, added 44 the prior week, sold 6157 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and added 695 (added 3328 the prior week, covered 2621, 2300, 3511 the prior three weeks, added 5621, 1047, 1783, 3743, 9445, 5824 the prior six weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator), because the unusually large long liquidation is a short term non contrarian indication. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts below).

See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

It Looks Like The Monthly Upcycle's Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle Bottomed

Early today and the indicators point to strength (see previous post). The massive punch spiking by the Fed in recent days is a major positive. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

HUI/NEM/XAU's Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle May Bottom Today

The XAU filled it's downside gap at 130.25 from 3-15 today. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.60% vs the XAU right now. It looks like the monthly upcycle's (since 3-10-06) Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle may bottom today, and, NEM and the XAU have upside gaps created at today's open at 49.22 and 130.66 that should get filled in the next day or two. The NEM Lead Indicator should turn bullish today if Wave 2 is bottoming. See charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -5.81% to 34.585 on Monday 3-20 from 36.720 on Friday 3-17 versus a -0.82% decline in the XAU on 3-20, which is an unusually large (> 6%) +6.63% rise in complacency (-5.81% + -0.82% = -6.63%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -6.63%, therefore complacency rose by +6.63%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Tuesday 3-21's session . The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose a very sharp (3-6%) +3.60% today to 0.57210 from 0.55220 on Monday that portends some strength today. The Fed spiked the punch again today which is a major positive once the Wave 2 short term downcycle bottoms: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Lead Indicator = -0.46% Vs The XAU Today

It looks like the XAU will fill it's downside gap at 130.25 from 3-15 tomorrow, and, the monthly upcycle's Wave 2 short term downcycle may bottom shortly thereafter, with the NEM Lead Indicator being a great aid in assessing that once the gap gets filled. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Lead Indicator = -1.00% Vs The XAU Right Now

A truly great indicator. Buckle up! http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM's Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle Is Leading To The Downside

The XAU has a downside gap at 130.25 created at Wednesday's open that will probably be filled today or tomorrow. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so Wave 5 began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU.The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.40% vs the XAU right now. NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.41% to 36.720 on Friday 3-17 from 36.870 on 3-16 versus a +0.19% rise in the XAU on 3-17, which is a slight (up to 0.24%) +0.22% rise in complacency (-0.41% + +0.19% = -0.22%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.22%, therefore complacency rose by +0.22%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 3-20's session . The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.47% today to 0.55220 from 0.53890 on Friday that portends some strength today. The Fed spiked the punch today and the fact that it didn't help much jives with a Wave 2 short term downcycle: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

................................Weekly Update Ready

At http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See 1 year charts that show the likely Elliot Wave points for the major upcycle since 5-16-05 and see NEM's 4 month chart that show's the monthly upcycle Wave 1 short term cycle high on 3-16. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

...............Disclaimer Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered investment advisor. Investing in stocks involves risk. Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered broker or dealer. Each investor has to ascertain what percentage if any of one's investments should be allocated to growth stocks or gold/silver stocks. Please see a financial planner, registered investment advisor or at least do your homework and decide what is right for your situation. Growth stocks and gold/silver stocks tend to be extremely volatile which creates opportunities but also can be very painful and risky. Each investor must take complete responsibility for his or her investing actions. Joe Ferrazzano should be considered as one source of information out of many from which to derive a decision on investing.

NEM Lead Indicator = -0.47% Today Vs The XAU

The monthly upcycle's (since 3-10-06) Wave 2 short term downcycle will probably last another session or two and should fill the XAU's downside gap at 130.25 from Wednesday: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=

See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The NEM Lead Indicator Is A Bearish -0.90% Vs The XAU Right Now

Which jives with the monthly upcycle's (since 3-10-06) Wave 2 down being in effect. Wave 2 should bottom in the next session or two. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM's Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle Is Leading To The Downside

The XAU has a downside gap at 130.25 created at Wednesday's open that will probably be filled today or tomorrow. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday, so Wave 5 began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU.The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.30% vs the XAU right now. NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.97% to 36.870 on Thursday 3-16 from 37.230 on Wednesday 3-15 versus a -0.76% decline in the XAU on 3-16, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.73% rise in complacency (-0.97% + -0.76% = -1.73%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -1.73%, therefore complacency rose by +1.73%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Friday 3-17's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration expires this week) rose a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.08% today to 0.75672 from 0.74862 yesterday that portends some strength today. The Fed provided no credit to index fund traders on Monday (rare), provided a relatively modest $6.25 Billion 1 day Repo On Tuesday, a large $9.75 Billion 1 day Repo on Wednesday, did their usual Thursday punch spiking on Thursday, and provided an average $7.5 Billion 3 day Repo today: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Fed Credit Grew By +$4.672 Billion W/E 3-15-06

Which is a good sign once the Wave 2 short term downcycle bottoms in the next few sessions:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ .......
http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Underperformed The XAU Late In The Session

But outperformed by +0.56% today, so some strength is likely tomorrow, which could come after a gap down and early weakness.

The Monthly Upcycle's (Since 3-10) Wave 1 has probably peaked and the XAU has a downside gap at 130.25 created at yesterday's open that will probably be filled tomorrow. Fed Credit for the week ending 3-15 will be released at about 4:30 EST http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/ See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The Monthly Upcycle's (Since 3-10) Wave 1 Is Peaking

The usual Thursday Fed punch spiking (http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE) led to S & P 500 (SPX) and some gold/silver stock strength early on due to index fund buying. HUI's monthly upcycle Wave 1 appears to have peaked yesterday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=) while NEM and the XAU appear to have peaked early today.

The XAU has a downside gap at 130.25 created at yesterday's open that will probably be filled today or tomorrow. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday, so Wave 5 began on 3-10-06.The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.70% vs the XAU right now after being a bearish -0.88% yesterday. NEM's cycle low on Friday at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.98% to 37.230 on Wednesday 3-15 from 37.600 on Tuesday 3-14 versus a +1.73% rise in the XAU on 3-15, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +0.75% rise in fear (-0.98% + +1.73% = +0.75%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +0.75%, therefore fear rose by +0.75%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Thursday 3-16's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) rose a significant (0.50-1.99%) +0.97% today to 0.74862 from 0.74142 on Wednesday, which is a significant rise in fear that portends some strength today. The Fed provided no credit to index fund traders on Monday (rare), provided a relatively modest $6.25 Billion 1 day Repo On Tuesday, a large $9.75 Billion 1 day Repo yesterday, and did their usual Thursday punch spiking today: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

.......NEM Filled It's Downside Gap At 49.68

The Monthly Upcycle's (Since 3-10) Wave 1 is peaking and the XAU has a downside gap at 130.25 created at today's open that will probably be filled tomorrow. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred yesterday, so Wave 5 began on 3-10-06. The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.88% vs the XAU today. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The Monthly Upcycle's (Since 3-10) Wave 1 Is Peaking

and NEM and the XAU have downside gaps at 49.68 and 130.25 created at today's open that will probably be filled today. The spike open by HUI/NEM/XAU appears to have been the monthly upcycle's Wave 1 peaking. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred yesterday, so Wave 5 began on 3-10-06.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.60% vs the XAU right now. NEM's cycle low on Friday at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility rose +0.83% to 37.600 on Tuesday 3-14 from 37.290 on Monday 3-13 versus a +1.96% rise in the XAU on 3-14, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.79% rise in fear (+0.83% + +1.96% = +2.79%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +2.79%, therefore fear rose by +2.79%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Wednesday 3-15's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) rose a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.98% today to 0.74142 from 0.71994 on Tuesday, which is a sharp rise in fear that portends some strength today. The Fed provided no credit to index fund traders on Monday (rare), provided a relatively modest $6.25 Billion 1 day Repo yesterday, and a large $9.75 Billion 1 day Repo today: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Lead Indicator = -0.11% Vs The XAU Today

And became bearish in the last two hours: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem HUI, NEM, and the XAU may have hit very short term cycle highs near session's end or one is probably imminent, so, a good buying opportunity should present itself in the next day or two.

HUI, NEM, and the XAU hit 2% follow through Wave 5 minor intermediate term cycle buy signals today, thanks in large part to a firm S & P 500 (SPX) which led to index fund buying. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Welcome To The Major Upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5!

Hooya! HUI, NEM, and the XAU hit 2% follow through Wave 5 minor intermediate term cycle buy signals today, thanks in large part to a firm S & P 500 (SPX) which has led to index fund buying. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.35% vs the XAU right now, so reliable lead indicator NEM is leading as usual.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Is Acting Well Early On Due Partly To Early SPX (S & P 500) Strength

HUI, NEM, and the XAU have all broken their Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle trendlines, but they haven't had 2% follow through yet, so a Wave 5 buy signal hasn't occurred. The very short term upcycle since early Friday should soon break down and HUI, NEM, and the XAU should put in higher cycle lows (than those that occurred on Friday) in the next few days.

The NEM Lead Indicator is neutral vs the XAU right now and it looks like a test of Friday's likely Wave 4 minor intermediate term cycle lows is coming in the next day or two. NEM's cycle low on Friday at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility rose +1.55% to 37.290 on Monday 3-13 from 36.720 on Friday 3-10 versus a +0.75% rise in the XAU on 3-13, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.30% rise in fear (+1.55% + +0.75% = +2.30%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +2.30%, therefore fear rose by +2.30%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Tuesday 3-14's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) fell a significant (up to 0.24%) -0.22% today to 0.71994 from 0.72150 on Monday, which is a slight rise in complacency that portends some weakness today, and the recent collapse in the XAU Put/Call ratio from above 1.30000 on 2-17 (final February value) correctly suggested that a substantial decline would soon occur. The Fed provided no credit to index fund traders yesterday (rare) and provided a relatively modest $6.25 Billion 1 day Repo so far today: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Underperformed The XAU By -0.40% Today

After underperforming by -0.31% on Friday. HUI came close to a 2% follow through major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 buy signal today, and, it looks like Wave 5 began on Friday, but "Trade the Cycles" hasn't flashed a buy signal yet. The very short term upcycle that began shortly after the open on Friday is rolling over and it looks like HUI/NEM/XAU will take a dive tomorrow and will probably put in higher cycle lows than those that occurred very early on Friday, which was probably the start of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5.

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) probably began on Friday shortly after the XAU filled it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22. See 5 day XAU chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

...........Heading For A Test Of Friday's Lows

The NEM Lead Indicator is about -1.00% vs the XAU right now and it looks like a test of Friday's likely Wave 4 minor intermediate term cycle lows is coming today or tomorrow. NEM's cycle low on Friday at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility rose +0.47% to 36.720 on Friday 3-10 from 36.550 on 3-9 versus a +2.03% rise in the XAU on 3-10, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.50% rise in fear (+0.47% + +2.03% = +2.50%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +2.50%, therefore fear rose by +2.50%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Monday 3-13's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) fell a significant (0.50-1.99%) -1.43% today to 0.72150 from 0.73200 on Friday, which is a significant rise in complacency that portends some weakness today, and the recent collapse in the XAU Put/Call ratio from above 1.30000 on 2-17 (final February value) correctly suggested that a substantial decline would soon occur. The Fed has provided no credit so far today to index fund traders: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

................................Weekly Update Ready

At http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See 1 year charts that show the likely Elliot Wave points for the major upcycle since 5-16-05. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you. Ciao

...............Disclaimer

Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered investment advisor. Investing in stocks involves risk. Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered broker or dealer. Each investor has to ascertain what percentage if any of one's investments should be allocated to growth stocks or gold/silver stocks. Please see a financial planner, registered investment advisor or at least do your homework and decide what is right for your situation. Growth stocks and gold/silver stocks tend to be extremely volatile which creates opportunities but also can be very painful and risky. Each investor must take complete responsibility for his or her investing actions. Joe Ferrazzano should be considered as one source of information out of many from which to derive a decision on investing.

..............................New Charts Uploaded

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) may have begun yesterday shortly after the XAU filled it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22. My gut tells me yesterday was the Wave 4 cycle low and that Wave 5 has begun, BUT that's my gut and NOT my system. I do NOT call cycle highs/lows but I do give opinions based on my great system. A 2% follow through buy signal is what Trade the Cycles uses for a Wave 5 minor intermediate term cycle buy signal.

HUI/NEM/XAU are probably heading for a test of yesterday's early cycle lows (in the next session or two) that might be the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 cycle lows. HUI/NEM/XAU will put in higher cycle lows in the next few sessions if Wave 5 began yesterday and remember that many stocks cycles lag. See 5 day XAU chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Underperformed The XAU By -0.31% Today

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) may have begun today shortly after the XAU filled it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22. HUI/NEM/XAU are probably heading for a test of today's early cycle lows (in the next session or two) that might be the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 cycle lows. HUI/NEM/XAU will put in higher cycle lows in the next few sessions if Wave 5 began today, but a 2% follow through buy signal is what Trade the Cycles uses for a Wave 5 minor intermediate term cycle buy signal and remember that many stocks cycles lag. See 5 day XAU chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Is Now Underperforming The XAU By Nearly 1.00%

So, HUI/NEM/XAU are probably heading for a test of today's early cycle lows (in the next day or two) that might be the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 cycle lows, which means that Wave 5 may have begun today. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The XAU Fills It's Last Downside Gap At 122.49 From 12-22

So the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 may bottom today or Monday since important cycle lows/highs tend to occur shortly after gaps get filled. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.75% vs the XAU right now which suggests that today could be the low, but it's not bullish enough right now to be convincing. But, the way NEM has bounced off 46.60, quickly rising to 48.28 on very high volume, is another sign that NEM's Wave 4 may have bottomed at 46.60 today. NEM tends to lead so keep that in mind. Trade the cycles uses trendline buy/sell signals anyway, so please distinguish between that and me trying to make a "call." I don't really make calls anyway, I do give opinions based on cycle trendlines, the nature of cycles, and some great indicators. NEM's very high volume so far today at over 3 million shares less than an hour into the session points to a potential bottom today or Monday. NEM fell below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49 (was 45-47) with a low at 46.60, which isn't a big deal if 46.60 turns out to be the cycle low or nearly so. Individual stocks have more uncertainty than indexes do because component upside surprises tend to cancel out/average out downside surprises in an index. Also, when choosing a target range I usually pick round numbers, and, my trendlines tend to be drawn fairly tight. With Elliot Wave suggesting that a 12-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market is due later this year after long term cycle highs occur, reliable lead indicator NEM surprising to the downside makes perfect sense.

NEM and the XAU filled their upside gaps from today's open (HUI usually doesn't have gaps or they're tiny ones). A good approach to use, even for daredevil bottom pickers like myself, is to wait for a successful test of today's cycle lows in the next few days before buying, waiting for higher cycle lows to occur for HUI/NEM/XAU. You have to use that same approach for whatever stocks/indexes you're trading. Many stocks lag. Waiting for a Trade the Cycles 2% Wave 5 buy signal is a more conservative approach that makes sense also. You can wait for the Wave 5 buy signal then buy on weakness in a short term or very short term downcycle. You have to use that same approach for whatever stocks/indexes you're trading. If the NEM Lead Indicator remains clearly bullish today I may pick up some XAU Call Options, I did well this week with XAU Puts.

The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) trendlines correctly suggested that further downside was likely. NEM's cycle low today at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low today at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low today at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. Based on the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges of 255-265 for HUI, 47-49 for NEM, and 117-122 for the XAU were derived. XAU Implied Volatility rose +0.27% to 36.550 on Thursday 3-9 from 36.450 on Wednesday 3-8 versus a -1.86% decline in the XAU on 3-9, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.59% rise in complacency (+0.27% + -1.86% = -1.59%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -1.59%, therefore complacency rose by +1.59%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Thursday 3-9's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) fell a significant (0.50-1.99%) -0.50% today to 0.73200 from 0.73567 on Thursday, which is a significant rise in complacency that portends some weakness today, and the recent collapse in the XAU Put/Call ratio from above 1.30000 on 2-17 (final February value) correctly suggested that a substantial decline would soon occur. The Fed spiked the index fund trader punch massively yesterday as they always (past two months) do on Thursday, which is a major factor behind today's sharp rebound after early weakness: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM And The XAU Take Out Yesterday's Cycle Lows

The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) trendlines correctly suggested that the XAU and probably also HUI have further to fall. NEM's cycle low yesterday at 48.13 was in the middle of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, but it hit 47.67 today, while HUI's cycle lows today at 285.46 and yesterday at 282ish were well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, and the XAU's cycle lows today at 124.15 and yesterday at 124.27 were significantly but not far above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. SPX (S & P 500) was briefly firm early today, resulting in gold/silver stock strength, but turned down and entered negative territory, which dragged gold/silver stocks down. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.75% versus the XAU today, so more downside is likely tomorrow.The XAU will probably fill it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 before Wave 4 bottoms. Based on the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI, 47-49 for NEM, and 117-122 for the XAU. XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.40% to 36.450 on Wednesday 3-8 from 36.595 on Tuesday 3-7 versus a -2.20% decline in the XAU on 3-8, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.60% rise in complacency (-0.40% + -2.20% = -2.60%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -2.60%, therefore complacency rose by +2.60%) that correctly portended weakness/a downtrend during part of Thursday 3-9's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) fell a very sharp (3-6%) -4.41% today to 0.73567 from 0.76959 on Wednesday, which is a very sharp rise in complacency that correctly portended some weakness today, and the recent collapse in the XAU Put/Call ratio from above 1.30000 on 2-17 (final February value) correctly suggested that a substantial decline would soon occur. The Fed spiked the index fund trader punch massively today as they always (past two months) do on Thursday, but the cycles are so weak now that it had a very muted effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

..............................I'm Baaaaaaaaaaaaaack

Just got off Blogger's spam list. Was placed on it by their bot not by a human. The Major Upcycle's Wave 4 may have bottomed yesterday but the major upcycle (since 5-16-05) trendlines suggest that the XAU and especially HUI probably have further to fall. NEM's cycle low yesterday at 48.13 was in the middle of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49 while HUI's cycle low yesterday at 282ish was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265 and the XAU's cycle low yesterday at 124.27 was significantly but not far above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. SPX (S & P 500) was briefly firm early today, resulting in gold/silver stock strength, but has turned down and entered negative territory, which has dragged gold/silver stocks down. The NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -1.15% right now versus the XAU, so a test of yesterday's cycle lows may occur today or tomorrow.

The XAU may fill it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 before Wave 4 bottoms. Based on the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI, 47-49 for NEM, and 117-122 for the XAU. XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.40% to 36.450 on Wednesday 3-8 from 36.595 on Tuesday 3-7 versus a -2.20% decline in the XAU on 3-8, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.60% rise in complacency (-0.40% + -2.20% = -2.60%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by +2.60%, therefore complacency rose by +2.60%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Thursday 3-9's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) fell a very sharp (3-6%) -4.41% today to 0.73567 from 0.76959 on Wednesday, which is a very sharp rise in complacency that portends some weakness today, and the recent collapse in the XAU Put/Call ratio from above 1.30000 on 2-17 (final February value) correctly suggested that a substantial decline would soon occur. The Fed spiked the index fund trader punch massively today as they always (past two months) do on Thursday, but the cycles are so weak now that it has had a very muted effect so far: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The NEM Lead Indicator = +0.33% Vs The XAU Today

The NEM Lead Indicator = +0.33% vs the XAU today, was a very bearish -1.06% vs the XAU yesterday after being an extremely bearish -6.12% last week. NEM nearly fell into it's Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49 today with a cycle low at 49.20. NEM will probably continue to outperform the XAU as HUI and the XAU probably plunge the next few days. NEM has a downside gap to fill at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps to fill at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 48.75 from 12-7 and the XAU fills it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 Wave 4 should bottom. Based on that and the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI, 47-49 for NEM, and 117-122 for the XAU.............See 5 day XAU chart for today's/recent action: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau ........... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The Major Upcycle Wave 4's Wave C Short Term Downcycle

Is in effect, which is the parabolic/sharply declining part of Wave 4, so buckle up! NEM is heading for it's downside gap at 48.75 from 12-7 while the XAU is heading toward it's downside gap at 128.03 from 1-3. NEM has a downside gap to fill at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps to fill at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 48.75 from 12-7 and the XAU fills it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 Wave 4 should bottom. Based on that and the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI, 47-49 for NEM, and 117-122 for the XAU. The NEM Lead Indicator is neutral right now versus the XAU, was a very bearish -1.06% yesterday, and was an extremely bearish -6.12% last week. XAU Implied Volatility rose +4.09% to 36.040 on Monday 3-6 from 34.625 on Friday 3-3 versus a -3.34% decline in the XAU on 3-6, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +0.75% rise in fear (+4.09% + -3.34% = +0.75%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +0.75%, therefore fear rose by +0.75%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Tuesday 3-7's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) fell a very sharp (3-6%) 3.32% today to 0.78982 from 0.81697 on Monday, which is a very sharp rise in complacency that portends some weakness today, and the recent collapse in the XAU Put/Call ratio from above 1.30000 on 2-17 (final February value) correctly suggested that a substantial decline would soon occur. The Fed spiked the index fund trader punch modestly this week, but the cycles are so weak now that it has had a very muted effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The NEM Lead Indicator = -1.06% Vs The XAU Today

After being an extremely bearish -6.12% last week. NEM filled downside gaps at 51.59 from 12-28 and at 50.45 from 12-22 today and the XAU filled it's downside gap at 133.35 from 3-1 today. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps to fill at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 48.75 from 12-7 and the XAU fills it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 Wave 4 should bottom. Based on that and the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI, 47-49 for NEM, and 117-122 for the XAU.

............See 5 day XAU chart for this today's action: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau ........... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Why Elliot Wave And Understanding The Nature Of Cycles Are So Important

Aurora Gold, ARXG.OB, a speculative rocket, is up about 10% right now at 1.74 in a Wave B up of an Elliot Wave ABC correction. In Wave C it should fill it's downside gap at 1.05. So, ARXG.OB should fall to 1.00 or below from 1.74 now. This is why Elliot Wave is so important, but the Wave A short term downcycle's trendline was too steep to be the (likely) minor intermediate term downcycle trendline. A good understanding of the nature of cycles would have led one to believe that the downtrend was a (Wave A) short term downcycle even if you didn't understand Elliot Wave. The Yahoo chart is a day behind and you can't see the downside gap but here it is http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ARXG.OB&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=c&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The Major Upcycle Wave 4's Wave C Short Term Downcycle

Is in effect, which is the parabolic/sharply declining part of Wave 4, so buckle up! NEM is heading for it's downside gap at 51.59 from 12-28 while the XAU is heading toward it's downside gap at 133.35 from 3-1. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps to fill at 133.35 from 3-1, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 48.75 from 12-7 and the XAU fills it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 Wave 4 should bottom. Based on that and the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI, 47-49 for NEM, and 117-122 for the XAU. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.70% right now versus the XAU and was an extremely bearish -6.12% last week. XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.13% to 34.625 on Friday 3-3 from 35.020 on 3-2 versus a -1.40% decline in the XAU on 3-3, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.53% rise in complacency (-1.13% + -1.40% = -2.53%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -2.53%, therefore complacency rose by +2.53%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 3-6's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) rose a very sharp (3-6%) 3.90% today to 0.81697 from 0.78629 on Friday, which is a very sharp rise in fear that portends some strength today, but the recent collapse in the XAU Put/Call ratio from above 1.30000 on 2-17 (final February value) suggests that a substantial decline is likely soon. The Fed spiked the index fund trader punch some today with a $8.75 Billion Repo, but the cycles are so weak now that it should have a muted effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

................................Weekly Update Ready

At http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See 1 year charts that show the likely Elliot Wave points for the major upcycle since 5-16-05 and see the 2 month NEM chart dated 3-3-06 for Wave 4's Elliot Wave count. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you. Ciao ...............Disclaimer Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered investment advisor. Investing in stocks involves risk. Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered broker or dealer. Each investor has to ascertain what percentage if any of one's investments should be allocated to growth stocks or gold/silver stocks. Please see a financial planner, registered investment advisor or at least do your homework and decide what is right for your situation. Growth stocks and gold/silver stocks tend to be extremely volatile which creates opportunities but also can be very painful and risky. Each investor must take complete responsibility for his or her investing actions. Joe Ferrazzano should be considered as one source of information out of many from which to derive a decision on investing.

.......New Charts Uploaded Including THE Chart

See first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for reliable lead indicator NEM's 2 month chart showing the Elliot Wave Count for the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 down since 1-31-06. Monday 2-13 was NEM's Wave A short term cycle low for Wave 4, not the beginning of the major upcycle's Wave 5, because HUI/NEM/XAU's cycle lows occurred too far above the major upcycle trendlines (see 1 year charts) to be Wave 4 cycle lows. NEM and the XAU took out their Wave A short term cycle lows last Tuesday, confirming that Wave 5 didn't begin a little over two weeks ago. It appears that each of Wave 4's Waves will last about two weeks, for an approximate 6 week correction that began with Wave 3 cycle highs on 1-31-06. So, Wave 5 should begin in mid March, which is exactly when it began in the previous parabolic major upcycle in 2003 (on March 13, 2003). My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.23% Vs The XAU Today

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle since 1-31-06 should bottom in the next week or two. The extremely bearish NEM Lead Indicator this week (The NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish on Monday at -2.26% vs the XAU, remained so on Tuesday at -1.69%, was also very bearish at -1.50% vs the XAU on Wednesday, was a bearish -0.44% vs the XAU yesterday, and a modestly bearish -0.23% vs the XAU today) points to a substantial 10-15%+ decline in the next week or so. The gold COT data points to weakness next week since the gold Commercial Traders added significantly to their short position and engaged in very modest long liquidation, while the Speculators traded net long, which also points to weakness next week. See http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm ............See 5 day XAU chart for this week's action: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau ........... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

......................HUI Is Just Fine Thank You

I have to respond to the Charleston Voice's latest offbase piece, "HUI Is Broken." (http://news.goldseek.com/CharlestonVoice/1141401780.php) GFI, the largest HUI component (17.37%), has HELPED HUI (see first link) a lot and isn't solely South African as the piece leads one to believe. Also, NEM is a reliable lead indicator (see second link) and is the second largest component of HUI, so HUI is just fine thank you. Ciao. Joe

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=GFI&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5Ehui

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem From Yahoo's profile: "Gold Fields Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, processing, and smelting of gold primarily in South Africa, Ghana, and Australia." .............. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

...........NEM Lead Indicator Three Month Chart

Note how NEM led to the upside a few months ago and has led to the downside recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem ................ http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

S & P 500 (SPX) Weakness Resulting In Gold/Silver Stock Weakness

HUI made a slightly higher cycle high yesterday than it's cycle high on 2-22 (that appeared to be it's Wave B short term cycle high), so HUI may have put in a Wave B short term cycle high late yesterday or could even still be in Wave B. But, NEM began Wave C on 2-24 and the NEM dominated XAU did so on 2-22. Since NEM is a reliable lead indicator it's Elliot Wave count is obviously the most important. I assumed prior to yesterday that the XAU's upside gap at 140.51 wouldn't get filled and it might not, but yesterday's cycle high at 140.19 taught me to be more careful about assuming that gaps won't get filled. I am pretty careful but will try to be more so. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle since 1-31-06 is due to bottom in mid March in similar fashion to what occurred in the prior parabolic major upcycle in early 2003, which peaked a few days earlier and bottomed on 3-13-2003. ......................The major cycles are vastly different for SPX vs HUI/NEM/XAU with SPX being in a secular Bear since March 2000 while HUI/NEM/XAU have been in a secular Bull since late 2000. But, near term SPX has a major impact on gold/silver stocks because it drives index fund trading. The NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish on Monday at -2.26% vs the XAU, remained so on Tuesday at -1.69%, was also very bearish at -1.50% vs the XAU on Wednesday, and was a bearish -0.44% yesterday, so a substantial 10-15%+ decline is likely in the next few days. ...............Right now NEM is outperforming the XAU by a bullish +0.40%, so major weakness won't set in until NEM starts to plunge. An ABC Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle is occurring since 1-31-06. The cycle lows two weeks ago were Wave A short term cycle lows. They occurred too far above the major upcycle trendlines to be likely Wave 4 cycle lows. Both NEM and the XAU took out their cycle lows from two weeks ago on Tuesday. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps to fill at 133.35 from 3-1, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Both have upside gaps from today's open at 54.15 and 139.09 that may get filled. Shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 48.75 from 12-7 and the XAU fills it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 Wave 4 should bottom. Based on that and the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI (was 240-250), 47-49 for NEM (was 45-47), and 117-122 for the XAU (was 112-117). XAU Implied Volatility rose yesterday despite the (to 35.020 on 3-2 from 34.580 on 3-1) XAU rising yesterday (+2.67%) which was a very sharp rise in fear that portends some strength today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) fell an unusually large (> 6%) 7.18% today to 0.78629 from 0.84715 yesterday, which is an unusually large rise in complacency that portends some strength today, but the recent collapse in the XAU Put/Call ratio from above 1.30000 on 2-17 (final February value) suggests that a substantial decline is likely soon. The Fed didn't spike the index fund trader punch this week until yesterday's usual Thursday punch spiking = $18.25 Billion in Repos (happened every Thursday the past two months), with a $2.75 Billion 3 day Repo so far today, $6.75 Billion in Repos on Wednesday, only $2 Billion in Repos on Monday, and $3.5 Billion on Tuesday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.44% Vs The XAU Today

The extremely bearish NEM Lead Indicator this week (The NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish on Monday at -2.26% vs the XAU, remained so on Tuesday at -1.69% and was also very bearish at -1.50% vs the XAU yesterday, so a substantial 10-15%+ decline is likely in the next few days.) and in this Wave B very short term upcycle since early Tuesday points to a substantial decline once Wave C 's Wave C very short term downcycle begins. It may have late today. The fact that the XAU came very close to it's upside gap from Monday at 140.51, with a session high today at 140.19, and failed to fill that upside gap, combined with a bearish NEM Lead Indicator again today, may mean that Wave C's Wave C began late today. Note that the NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.75% Vs the XAU early today, correctly portending strength, as did the very sharp +5.55% rise in the XAU Put/Call Ratio, and XAU Implied Volatility, which revealed a significant rise in fear today.

See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau ........... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The XAU Is Trying To Fill It's Upside Gap At 140.51

Created at Monday's open. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau ......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

..................Wave C Is Doing An ABC Pattern

The Wave C short term downcycle began on Wednesday 2-22 for the XAU and HUI, and it's Wave A very short term downcycle ended early on Tuesday, so this is Wave C's Wave B up that appears to be peaking today, which means the apocalyptic Wave C's Wave C should soon begin. Note that the indicators correctly portended strength today, but cycles are the primary consideration. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau ......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

S & P 500 (SPX) Weakness Resulting In Gold/Silver Stock Weakness

Just as SPX strength yesterday led to strength. The major cycles are vastly different for SPX vs HUI/NEM/XAU with SPX being in a secular Bear since March 2000 while HUI/NEM/XAU have been in a secular Bull since late 2000. But, near term SPX has a major impact on gold/silver stocks because it drives index fund trading. The NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish on Monday at -2.26% vs the XAU, remained so on Tuesday at -1.69% and was also very bearish at -1.50% vs the XAU yesterday, so a substantial 10-15%+ decline is likely in the next few days. Right now NEM is outperforming the XAU by a bullish +0.75%, so major weakness won't set in until NEM starts to plunge. An ABC Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle is occurring since 1-31-06. The cycle lows two weeks ago were Wave A short term cycle lows. They occurred too far above the major upcycle trendlines to be likely Wave 4 cycle lows. Both NEM and the XAU took out their cycle lows from two weeks ago on Tuesday. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps to fill at 133.35 from 3-1, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 48.75 from 12-7 and the XAU fills it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 Wave 4 should bottom. Based on that and the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI (was 240-250), 47-49 for NEM (was 45-47), and 117-122 for the XAU (was 112-117). XAU Implied Volatility fell less in % terms than the (to 34.580 on 3-1 from 34.805 on 2-28) XAU rose yesterday (+1.59%) which was a significant rise in fear that correctly portended some very brief early strength today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) rose a very sharp 5.55% today to 0.84715 from 0.80257 yesterday, which is a very sharp rise in fear that correctly portended some early strength today. Also, the Fed wasn't spiking the index fund trader punch this week until today's usual Thursday punch spiking = $18.25 Billion in Repos (happened every Thursday the past two months), with $6.75 Billion in Repos yesterday, only $2 Billion in Repos on Monday, and $3.5 Billion on Tuesday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE http://www.JoeFRocks.com/