Reliable Lead Indicator NEM Filled It's Downside Gap At 42.14 Today

Reliable lead indicator NEM filled it's downside gap at 42.14 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. In the next few sessions NEM should fill it's downside gap at 41.44, and, the XAU should fill downside gaps at 133.31 and probably also at 129.65. So, NEM should bottom at 41ish (above the monthly cycle low at 40.53 on 3-14-07) and the XAU should bottom at (133ish or) 129ish, then a very short term 2 dayish countertrend Wave B is likely to occur.

The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish short term, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.17% versus the XAU today, was a very bearish -2.96% versus the XAU this week, and, was a bearish -1.90% versus the XAU last week.

The WMT Lead Indicator is bearish short term,see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +0.61% versus the S & P 500 today, but, became much less bullish (turned bearish in the second half of the session) in the second half of the session. The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.99% versus the S & P 500 this week.

Like NEM the XAU made a bearish breakaway gap to the downside last Tuesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The declining peaks downtrend since Tuesday's bearish gap to the downside is very flat, so, the XAU and HUI will probably enter the sharply declining/parabolic part of their short term downcycle on Monday.

Thomson I Watch was bearish today for NEM (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=NEM), for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=GFI), and, for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=WMT).

The COT data (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm) for the five day period ending 3-27-07 points to potentially severe weakness accompanied by some strength next week, because the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded significantly net short, while the clueless gold Speculators traded net long. The aggressive long liquidation by the savvy gold Commercial Traders the past two weeks ending 3-27-07 points to potentially severe weakness next week. The significant short covering by the savvy gold Commercial Traders in the five day period ending 3-27-07 points to some strength next week.

Fed Credit, which fuels the very important index fund program trading activity (about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), rose $997 Million in the five day period ending 3-28-07, which points to a very sharp rally once HUI/NEM/XAU hit a short term cycle low in the next session or two, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at "Mildly Likely," however, given the very bearish situation cyclewise and technically, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, a major upside surprise is very unlikely in the five sessions ending 4-4-07.

I bought XAU April 130 puts (XAVPF) on 3-28 at 1.20, and, will look to exit shortly after the gap filling action is completed in the next few days. I shorted GLD, the gold ETF, at 65.61 on 3-29, which will probably bottom at 63.50ish in the next few days, shortly after filling a downside gap at 63.98 (there are also downside gaps at 62.26 and 60.63). Since NEM probably hit an important monthly cycle low at 40.53 on 3-14-07 and an extremely important Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 39.84 on 10-4-06 (see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), my NEM April 45 calls (NEMDI) position should do well.

One usually will exit trading positions shortly after gap filling action is completed, unless there are very good reasons for remaining in the position(s). Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."

NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 43.73, 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 139.18, 139.66, and at 147.75 for the XAU. NEM has a downside gap at 41.44, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has upside gaps at 47.49 and 49.98, and, a downside gap at 46.21. WMT made a bearish breakaway gap to the downside on 3-28 from 47.49.

The XAU hit a Wave B (began 3-14) cycle high on Thursday 3-22 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==) for the major downcycle since 2-23-07 (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), and, HUI did so on Monday 3-26 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==).

In the next few months HUI/XAU should decline 40-45%+ (from 2-23-07's minor intermediate term cycle highs) to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since November/October 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's target range is 200-220 (220 if the primary trendline turns up) and the XAU's is 85-90.

Annotated chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html shows HUI as of 3-2-07 with Elliott Wave count. HUI/XAU are in a major Wave C decline of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (Secular Bull Market since late 2000). It's Wave C of Wave C for HUI, and Wave C of Wave C of Wave C for the XAU.

Note how the gold ETF GLD (and HUI/NEM/XAU) tracks SPX due to program trading, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=GLD&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. This shows how clueless the manipulation theory gold writers are. There simply aren't any traders who can overcome the huge program trading money, 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, yet many gold writers harp on gold price suppression by some "cartel."

Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for HUI/XAU as well as for SPX (S & P 500), and, to a lesser extent for NEM, which should be in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for the stock market in general, meaning the major averages and nearly all sectors except a few defensive ones (despite what most gold "gurus" say gold isn't a safe haven/defensive sector, T Bills and T Bonds are, which run COUNTER to the precious metals sector, which does well in an inflationary rising interest rate environment).

Fed Credit is extremely important because it fuels index fund program traders, that account for about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Just look at what happened on Tuesday 2-27. THREE out of five hundred SPX components rose. Unreal.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

The HUI/NEM/XAU Short Term Scenario Is On Track

The XAU (and HUI/NEM) is in a very short term Wave C downcycle, that should bottom well below Friday's Wave A cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

In the next few days the XAU should fill downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65, and, NEM should fill downside gaps at 42.14 and 41.44. So, NEM should bottom at 41ish and the XAU should bottom at 129ish, then a very short term 1-2 day countertrend Wave B is likely to occur.

Fed Credit, which fuels the very important index fund program trading activity (about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), rose $997 Million in the five day period ending 3-28-07, which points to a very sharp rally once HUI/NEM/XAU hit a short term cycle low in the next session or two, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at "Likely," however, given the very bearish situation cyclewise and technically, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, a major upside surprise is very unlikely in the next five sessions.

I bought XAU April 130 puts (XAVPF) yesterday at 1.20, and, will look to exit shortly after the gap filling action is completed in the next few days. I shorted GLD, the gold ETF, at 65.61 today, which will probably bottom at 63.50ish in the next few days, shortly after filling a downside gap at 63.98.

Since NEM probably hit an important monthly cycle low at 40.53 on 3-14-07 and an extremely important Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 39.84 on 10-4-06, my NEM April 45 calls (NEMDI) position should do well.

One usually will exit trading positions shortly after gap filling action is completed, unless there are very good reasons for remaining in the position(s). Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."

NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 43.73, 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 139.18, 139.66, and at 147.75 for the XAU. NEM has downside gaps at 41.44 and 42.14, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has upside gaps at 47.49 and 49.98, and, a downside gap at 46.21. WMT made a bearish breakaway gap to the downside yesterday from 47.49.

The XAU hit a Wave B (began 3-14) cycle high on Thursday 3-22 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==) for the major downcycle since 2-23-07 (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), and, HUI did so on Monday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==).

HUI/NEM/XAU are in a very short term Wave C downcycle. The XAU's upside gap from at 139.18 is a bearish breakaway gap to the downside. HUI/XAU are probably in the very bearish Wave C of the major downcycle since 2-23-07 (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). Watch the XAU's downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65 and NEM's downside gaps at 42.14 and 41.44 as previously discussed.

The NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish short term, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The WMT Lead Indicator is very bearish short term, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.43% versus the XAU today/on 3-29, was a modestly bullish +0.28% versus the XAU on 3-28, a very bearish -1.06% versus the XAU yesterday, was bearish on Monday at -0.58%, and, was bearish last week at -1.90% versus the XAU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem). The WMT Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.20% on 3-29, was a very bearish -1.09% versus the S & P 500 today/on 3-28, a slightly bearish -0.11% versus the S & P 500 on 3-27, and, was a modestly bearish -0.20% on 3-26.

Thomson I Watch was bearish today for NEM (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=NEM) and for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=GFI), but, was relatively bullish for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=WMT).

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.........The HUI/NEM/XAU Short Term Scenario

The XAU is in a very short term Wave C downcycle, that should bottom well below Friday's Wave A cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

In the next few days the XAU should fill downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65, and, NEM should fill downside gaps at 42.14 and 41.44. So, NEM should bottom at 41ish and the XAU should bottom at 129ish, then a very short term 1-2 day countertrend Wave B is likely to occur.

I bought XAU April 130 puts (XAVPF) today at 1.20, and, will look to exit shortly after the gap filling action is completed in the next few days. I also tried to short GDX today, but, my broker had no available supply. GDX is somewhat thinly traded, which means that an adequate supply to short is less likely to be available than for a heavily traded stock.

One usually will exit trading positions shortly after gap filling action is completed, unless there are very good reasons for remaining in the position(s). Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."

NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 43.73, 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 139.18, 139.66, and at 147.75 for the XAU. NEM has downside gaps at 41.44 and 42.14, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98 and a downside gap at 46.21.

Since NEM probably hit an important monthly cycle low at 40.53 on 3-14-07 and an extremely important Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 39.84 on 10-4-06, my NEM April 45 calls (NEMDI) position should do well.

The XAU hit a Wave B (began 3-14) cycle high on Thursday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==) for the major downcycle since 2-23-07 (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), and, HUI did so on Monday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==).

The XAU is in a very short term Wave C downcycle and HUI is in a very short term Wave A downcycle. The XAU's upside gap from yesterday's open at 139.18 appears to be a bearish breakaway gap to the downside. HUI/XAU are probably in the very bearish Wave C of the major downcycle since 2-23-07 (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). Watch the XAU's downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65 and NEM's downside gaps at 42.14 and 41.44 as previously discussed.

The NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish short term, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The WMT Lead Indicator is very bearish short term, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.28% versus the XAU today/on 3-28, a very bearish -1.06% versus the XAU yesterday, was bearish on Monday at -0.58%, and, was bearish last week at -1.90% versus the XAU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem). The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.09% versus the S & P 500 today/on 3-28, a slightly bearish -0.11% versus the S & P 500 on 3-27, and, was a modestly bearish -0.20% on 3-26.

Thomson I Watch was bearish today for NEM, see http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=NEM. But, Thomson I Watch was bullish today for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=GFI) and for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=WMT).

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

NEM/XAU Bearish Breakaway Gaps Confirmed

NEM/XAU made bearish breakaway gaps to the downside (upside gaps because they're above the current price) yesterday at 43.73 and 139.18, see the XAU's at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

The NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish short term, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The WMT Lead Indicator is very bearish short term, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

I'm looking to short GDX and go long some XAU puts.

There's a good chance that NEM will fill it's downside gaps at 42.14 and 41.44 in the next few days, and, NEM's Wave 2 short term downcycle of it's monthly upcycle since 3-14-07 should bottom (above the monthly cycle low at 40.53 that occurred on 3-14-07) shortly after filling it's downside gap at 41.44.

Since NEM probably hit an important monthly cycle low at 40.53 on 3-14-07 and an extremely important Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 39.84 on 10-4-06, my NEM April 45 calls (NEMDI) position should do well.

The XAU hit a Wave B (began 3-14) cycle high on Thursday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==) for the major downcycle since 2-23-07 (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), and, HUI did so on Monday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==).

The XAU is in a very short term Wave C downcycle and HUI is in a very short term Wave A downcycle. The XAU's upside gap from yesterday's open at 139.18 appears to be a bearish breakaway gap to the downside. HUI/XAU are probably in the very bearish Wave C of the major downcycle since 2-23-07 (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). Watch the XAU's downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.06% versus the XAU yesterday, was bearish on Monday at -0.58%, and, was bearish last week at -1.90% versus the XAU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem). The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.11% versus the S & P 500 on 3-27 and was a modestly bearish -0.20% on 3-26.

Thomson I Watch is bearish today for NEM, see http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=NEM. But, Thomson I Watch is bullish today for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=GFI) and for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=WMT).

NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 43.73, 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 139.18, 139.66, and at 147.75 for the XAU. NEM has downside gaps at 41.44 and 42.14, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98 and a downside gap at 46.21. I need to check WMT's historical data further to see if there are more gaps.

In the next few months HUI/XAU should decline 40-45%+ (from 2-23-07's minor intermediate term cycle highs) to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since November/October 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's target range is 200-220 (220 if the primary trendline turns up) and the XAU's is 85-90.

Annotated chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html shows HUI as of 3-2-07 with Elliott Wave count. HUI/XAU are in a major Wave C decline of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (Secular Bull Market since late 2000). It's Wave C of Wave C for HUI, and Wave C of Wave C of Wave C for the XAU.

Note how the gold ETF GLD (and HUI/NEM/XAU) tracks SPX due to program trading, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=GLD&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. This shows how clueless the manipulation theory gold writers are. There simply aren't any traders who can overcome the huge program trading money, 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, yet many gold writers harp on gold price suppression by some "cartel."

Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for HUI/XAU as well as for SPX (S & P 500), and, to a lesser extent for NEM, which should be in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for the stock market in general, meaning the major averages and nearly all sectors except a few defensive ones (despite what most gold "gurus" say gold isn't a safe haven/defensive sector, T Bills and T Bonds are, which run COUNTER to the precious metals sector, which does well in an inflationary rising interest rate environment).

Fed Credit is extremely important because it fuels index fund program traders, that account for about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Just look at what happened on Tuesday 2-27. THREE out of five hundred SPX components rose. Unreal.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.................I Sold NEM At 42.83 Today

I sold NEM at 42.83 late today versus an entry point at 42.56 on 3-16, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==, because, NEM didn't even try to fill today's upside gap at 43.73, so, 43.73 is probably a bearish breakaway gap to the downside.

There's a good chance that NEM will fill it's downside gaps at 41.44 and 42.14 in the next few days, and, NEM's Wave 2 short term downcycle of it's monthly upcycle since 3-14-07 should bottom (above the monthly cycle low at 40.53 that occurred on 3-14-07) shortly after filling it's downside gap at 41.44.

Since NEM probably hit an important monthly cycle low at 40.53 on 3-14-07 and an extremely important Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 39.84 on 10-4-06, my NEM April 45 calls (NEMDI) position should do well.

The XAU probably hit a Wave B (began 3-14) cycle high on Thursday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==) for the major downcycle since 2-23-07 (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), and, HUI probably did so yesterday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==).

The XAU is in a very short term Wave C downcycle and HUI is in a very short term Wave A downcycle. The XAU's upside gap from today's open at 139.18 appears to be a bearish breakaway gap to the downside. HUI/XAU are probably in the very bearish Wave C of the major downcycle since 2-23-07. Watch the XAU's downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65.

When HUI does a very short term countertrend Wave B I'll be looking to short GDX and go long some XAU puts.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.06% versus the XAU today, was bearish yesterday at -0.58%, and, was bearish last week at -1.90% versus the XAU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem). The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.11% versus the S & P 500 today/on 3-27 and was a modestly bearish -0.20% on 3-26.

Thomson I Watch was bearish today for NEM, see http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=NEM. But, Thomson I Watch was relatively bullish today for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=GFI) and was bullish for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=WMT).

NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 43.73, 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 139.66, 139.18, and at 147.75 for the XAU. NEM has downside gaps at 41.44 and 42.14, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98 and a downside gap at 46.21. I need to check WMT's historical data further to see if there are more gaps.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

An NEM Downgrade And Weak Consumer Confidence Data Led To More NEM Downside Surprise Today

An NEM downgrade and weak Consumer Confidence data led to more NEM downside surprise today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), but, NEM should be doing Wave 2 down of the monthly upcycle since hitting a cycle low at 40.53 on 3-14-07.

Assuming the downside gap at 42.14 from the 3-16 (large bullish breakaway gap) doesn't get filled this week, then this is merely a normal Wave 2 short term downcycle. However, NEM's upside gap at 43.73 from today's open could be a bearish breakaway gap to the downside.

So, the picture probably hasn't changed from yesterday, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/03/huinemxau-and-wmt-firmed-up.html. Also, NEM's weakness/underperformance (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem) is pointing to severe HUI/XAU weakness in the near future.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

HUI/NEM/XAU And WMT Firmed Up Significantly

After an early weak housing data selloff due to program selling, HUI/NEM/XAU and WMT/SPX firmed up significantly, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. HUI/XAU are in Wave 3 of the very short term Wave 5 that began on Friday, and, NEM probably began a short term Wave 3 today at 42.92, rallying sharply to close at 43.73.

It looks like NEM will fill it's upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and probably also 47.06 this week, and, the XAU will probably fill it's upside gap at 139.66, but probably not the one at 147.75, because the XAU would exceed it's minor intermediate term cycle high that occurred on 2-23-07 if it filled 147.75.

There's likely to be some significant weakness early tomorrow corresponding to Wave 2 down of the Wave 3 short term upcycle for NEM that began today (monthly upcycle since 3-14-07), and, Wave 4 down of the very short term Wave 5 for HUI/XAU that began on Friday 3-23-07 (Wave B since 3-14-07).

On the daily chart, though today's candle doesn't show up yet, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, NEM completed a short term Wave 1 Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle at 44+ on Thursday 3-22 for the monthly upcycle that began 3-14-07 (this just became obvious today), then has probably completed a Wave 2 ABC down up down very short term downcycle that appears to have bottomed today at 42.92. Keep in mind that NEM made a large bullish breakaway gap at 42.14 on 3-16, gapping up to 43.35.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.58% versus the XAU today/on 3-26, see
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -1.90% versus the XAU last week. So, the bearish NEM Lead Indicator jives with HUI/XAU soon hitting an important countertrend Wave B cycle high, probably this week.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.20% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 3-26, but became less bearish toward session's end, see
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Thomson I Watch was very bullish today for NEM, see http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=NEM. But, Thomson I Watch was bearish today for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=GFI) and for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=WMT).

The important weekly Fed Credit data released Thursday points to some weakness in the 5 day period ending 3-28-07, because, Fed Credit fell -$468 Million in the 5 day period ending 3-21-07, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at "Unlikely."

It looks like NEM will fill it's upside gap at 44.53, 45.10, and 47.06 in the next few days, and, the XAU will probably fill it's upside gap at 139.66. Once NEM fills 45.10 and probably 47.06 now, I'll be looking to exit my long NEM/long NEM April 45 calls (NEMDI) positions.

One usually will exit trading positions shortly after gap filling action is completed, unless there are very good reasons for remaining in the position(s). Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."

If it looks like the upside gap at 47.06 might not get filled until later I might exit before 47.06 gets filled. A trader should always be assessing the situation and should never be 100% sold on any scenario.

I bought NEM on 3-16 at 42.56, and, I bought NEM April 45 Calls (NEMDI) at a basis/average cost of 0.78, very close to 3-16's cycle lows at 42.51 and 0.75 (bought 40% of the contracts at 0.75 and 60% at 0.80), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

In the countertrend Wave B since 3-14 NEM (NEM is in a monthly upcycle not a Wave B) will probably fill upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and possibly also at 47.06, and, the XAU will probably fill upside gaps at 136.66 (filled 3-20) and 139.66, but not the one at 147.75, because it's a likely bearish breakaway gap to the downside, and, the XAU would exceed 2-23-07's minor intermediate term cycle high if it filled 147.75. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= for the XAU's five day chart. So, watch NEM's upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06, and, watch the XAU's upside gap at 139.66.

NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 139.66, and at 147.75 for the XAU. NEM has downside gaps at 41.44 and 42.14, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98 and a downside gap at 46.21. I need to check WMT's historical data further to see if there are more gaps.

In the next few months HUI/XAU should decline 40-45%+ (from 2-23-07's minor intermediate term cycle highs) to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since November/October 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's target range is 200-220 (220 if the primary trendline turns up) and the XAU's is 85-90.

Annotated chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html shows HUI as of 3-2-07 with Elliott Wave count. HUI/XAU are in a major Wave C decline of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (Secular Bull Market since late 2000). It's Wave C of Wave C for HUI, and Wave C of Wave C of Wave C for the XAU.

Note how the gold ETF GLD (and HUI/NEM/XAU) tracks SPX due to program trading, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=GLD&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. This shows how clueless the manipulation theory gold writers are. There simply aren't any traders who can overcome the huge program trading money, 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, yet many gold writers harp on gold price suppression by some "cartel."

Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for HUI/XAU as well as for SPX (S & P 500), and, to a lesser extent for NEM, which should be in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for the stock market in general, meaning the major averages and nearly all sectors except a few defensive ones (despite what most gold "gurus" say gold isn't a safe haven/defensive sector, T Bills and T Bonds are, which run COUNTER to the precious metals sector, which does well in an inflationary rising interest rate environment).

Fed Credit is extremely important because it fuels index fund program traders, that account for about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Just look at what happened on Tuesday 2-27. THREE out of five hundred SPX components rose. Unreal.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Program Selling Due To Weak Housing Data

Reliable lead indicator NEM appears to have weathered the weak housing data selloff, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.

On the daily chart, though today's candle doesn't show up, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, NEM completed a short term Wave 1 Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle at 44+ on Thursday 3-22 for the monthly upcycle that began 3-14-07 (this just became obvious today), then has probably completed a Wave 2 ABC down up down very short term downcycle that appears to have bottomed today at 42.92. Keep in mind that NEM made a large bullish breakaway gap at 42.14 on 3-16, gapping up to 43.35.

This is a revision from what appeared to be a very short term Wave 5 having begun on Friday, which is good news, because NEM only bottomed modestly below Friday's cycle low, and, has probably entered a Wave 3 short term upcycle, in which 44.43, 45.10, and possibly also 47.06 will get filled. I feel better about the short term picture now that NEM has entered a short term Wave 3, plus the bullish breakaway gap at 42.14 from 3-16 is a great sign.

Thomson I Watch is very bullish so far today for NEM, which is a good sign, see http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=0&mgp=0&i=2&hdate=&x=6&y=5.

HUI/XAU probably entered a very short term Wave 5 on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, for the countertrend Wave B short term upcycle that began on 3-14-07, which is Wave B of the major downcycle since 2-23-07, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

What's interesting is how does NEM do a monthly upcycle while HUI/XAU should soon fall apart and enter Wave C of the major downcycle since 2-23-07? The answer is that NEM must act well and HUI/XAU must act poorly. Also, NEM is no longer the dominant component of the XAU, see http://www.phlx.com/products/sectors/xaucomp.htm. Both ABX and FCX have more influence on the XAU now, due to recent acquisitions.

The NEM/WMT Lead Indicators have improved some intraday, and, hopefully will continue to improve, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The important weekly Fed Credit data released yesterday points to weakness in the 5 day period ending 3-28-07, because, Fed Credit fell -$468 Million in the 5 day period ending 3-21-07, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at "Unlikely."

It looks like NEM will fill it's upside gap at 44.53, 45.10, and 47.06 in the next few days, and, the XAU will probably fill it's upside gap at 139.66. Once NEM fills 45.10 and probably 47.06 now, I'll be looking to exit my long NEM/long NEM April 45 calls (NEMDI) positions.

One usually will exit trading positions shortly after gap filling action is completed, unless there are very good reasons for remaining in the position(s). Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."

If it looks like the upside gap at 47.06 might not get filled until later I might exit before 47.06 gets filled. A trader should always be assessing the situation and should never be 100% sold on any scenario.

I bought NEM on 3-16 at 42.56, and, I bought NEM April 45 Calls (NEMDI) at a basis/average cost of 0.78, very close to 3-16's cycle lows at 42.51 and 0.75 (bought 40% of the contracts at 0.75 and 60% at 0.80), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

In the countertrend Wave B since 3-14 NEM (NEM is in a monthly upcycle not a Wave B) will probably fill upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and possibly also at 47.06, and, the XAU will probably fill upside gaps at 136.66 (filled 3-20) and 139.66, but not the one at 147.75, because it's a likely bearish breakaway gap to the downside, and, the XAU would exceed 2-23-07's minor intermediate term cycle high if it filled 147.75. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= for the XAU's five day chart. So, watch NEM's upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06, and, watch the XAU's upside gap at 139.66.

NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 139.66, and at 147.75 for the XAU. NEM has downside gaps at 41.44 and 42.14, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98 and a downside gap at 46.21. I need to check WMT's historical data further to see if there are more gaps.

In the next few months HUI/XAU should decline 40-45%+ (from 2-23-07's minor intermediate term cycle highs) to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since November/October 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's target range is 200-220 (220 if the primary trendline turns up) and the XAU's is 85-90.

Annotated chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html shows HUI as of 3-2-07 with Elliott Wave count. HUI/XAU are in a major Wave C decline of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (Secular Bull Market since late 2000). It's Wave C of Wave C for HUI, and Wave C of Wave C of Wave C for the XAU.

Note how the gold ETF GLD (and HUI/NEM/XAU) tracks SPX due to program trading, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=GLD&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. This shows how clueless the manipulation theory gold writers are. There simply aren't any traders who can overcome the huge program trading money, 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, yet many gold writers harp on gold price suppression by some "cartel."

Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for HUI/XAU as well as for SPX (S & P 500), and, to a lesser extent for NEM, which should be in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for the stock market in general, meaning the major averages and nearly all sectors except a few defensive ones (despite what most gold "gurus" say gold isn't a safe haven/defensive sector, T Bills and T Bonds are, which run COUNTER to the precious metals sector, which does well in an inflationary rising interest rate environment).

Fed Credit is extremely important because it fuels index fund program traders, that account for about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Just look at what happened on Tuesday 2-27. THREE out of five hundred SPX components rose. Unreal.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

HUI/NEM/XAU Appear To Have Entered A Very Short Term Wave 5 Upcycle Today

HUI/NEM/XAU appear to have entered a very short term Wave 5 upcycle today (short term upcycle since 3-14-07), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.

In the last few hours of the session HUI/XAU did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, and, were in Wave 5 at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==, so, some weakness early on Monday is likely. There could also be some Wave 5 follow through strength at the open obviously.

Reliable lead indicator NEM's very short term Wave 4 bottomed early in the session, a few hours before HUI/XAU's did, then put in a slightly higher double bottom cycle low and proceeded to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern along with HUI/XAU, and, was in Wave 5 at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==, so, some weakness early on Monday is likely. There could also be some Wave 5 follow through strength at the open obviously.

The decline from early yesterday until today's cycle lows (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==) was probably Wave 4 down of HUI/NEM/XAU's short term upcycle since 3-14-07 (Wave B of the major downcycle since 2-23-07 for HUI/XAU (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and Wave 1 of a monthly upcycle for NEM).

In the very short term Wave 5 the expected NEM/XAU upside gap filling action should occur, as discussed in recent days. If NEM fills it's upside gap at 44.53 on Monday I may exit my long NEM/long NEM April 45 calls (NEMDI) before 45.10 gets filled, if it appears doubtful that it'll get filled. I'm inclined to have a quick trigger right now.

The WMT Lead Indicator became bearish versus the S & P 500 toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and, closed at a bearish -0.32% versus SPX today/on 3-23.

The NEM Lead Indicator became modestly more bearish (gap narrowed modestly) toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, closed at a neutral -0.01% versus the XAU today/on 3-23.

Thomson I Watch was bearish today for NEM (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem), for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi), and, for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt).

The COT data (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm) points to strength accompanied by some weakness next week, because the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded net long, while the clueless gold Speculators traded net short. The aggressive long liquidation by the savvy gold Commercial Traders points to some potentially severe weakness.

On the daily chart one can see that there are two spike cycle highs corresponding to very short term Wave 1 and 3 cycle highs, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Why Yahoo doesn't show the bar for the current day is beyond me, but, one can see the two spikes/very short term cycle highs.

The important weekly Fed Credit data released yesterday points to weakness in the 5 day period ending 3-28-07, because, Fed Credit fell -$468 Million in the 5 day period ending 3-21-07, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at "Unlikely."

It looks like NEM will fill it's upside gap at 44.53 and possibly also 45.10 in the next few days, and, the XAU will probably fill it's upside gap at 139.66. Once NEM fills 45.10 I'll be looking to exit my long NEM/long NEM April 45 calls (NEMDI) positions.

One usually will exit trading positions shortly after gap filling action is completed, unless there are very good reasons for remaining in the position(s). Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."

If it looks like the upside gap at 45.10 might not get filled until later I might exit before 45.10 gets filled. A trader should always be assessing the situation and should never be 100% sold on any scenario.

I bought NEM on 3-16 at 42.56, and, I bought NEM April 45 Calls (NEMDI) at a basis/average cost of 0.78, very close to 3-16's cycle lows at 42.51 and 0.75 (bought 40% of the contracts at 0.75 and 60% at 0.80), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

In the countertrend Wave B since 3-14 NEM will probably fill upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and possibly also at 47.06, and, the XAU will probably fill upside gaps at 136.66 (filled 3-20) and 139.66, but not the one at 147.75, because it's a likely bearish breakaway gap to the downside, and, the XAU would exceed 2-23-07's minor intermediate term cycle high if it filled 147.75. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= for the XAU's five day chart. So, watch NEM's upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10 (possibly also at 47.06), and, watch the XAU's upside gap at 139.66.

NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 139.66, and at 147.75 for the XAU. NEM has downside gaps at 41.44 and 42.14, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98 and a downside gap at 46.21. I need to check WMT's historical data further to see if there are more gaps.

In the next few months HUI/XAU should decline 40-45%+ (from 2-23-07's minor intermediate term cycle highs) to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since November/October 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's target range is 200-220 (220 if the primary trendline turns up) and the XAU's is 85-90.

Annotated chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html shows HUI as of 3-2-07 with Elliott Wave count. HUI/XAU are in a major Wave C decline of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (Secular Bull Market since late 2000). It's Wave C of Wave C for HUI, and Wave C of Wave C of Wave C for the XAU.

Note how the gold ETF GLD (and HUI/NEM/XAU) tracks SPX due to program trading, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=GLD&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. This shows how clueless the manipulation theory gold writers are. There simply aren't any traders who can overcome the huge program trading money, 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, yet many gold writers harp on gold price suppression by some "cartel."

Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for HUI/XAU as well as for SPX (S & P 500), and, to a lesser extent for NEM, which should be in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for the stock market in general, meaning the major averages and nearly all sectors except a few defensive ones (despite what most gold "gurus" say gold isn't a safe haven/defensive sector, T Bills and T Bonds are, which run COUNTER to the precious metals sector, which does well in an inflationary rising interest rate environment).

Fed Credit is extremely important because it fuels index fund program traders, that account for about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Just look at what happened on Tuesday 2-27. THREE out of five hundred SPX components rose. Unreal.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

This Decline Is Wave 4 Down Of HUI/NEM/XAU's Short Term Upcycle Since 3-14-07

The decline from early yesterday until early today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), assuming a cycle low occurred, is probably Wave 4 down of HUI/NEM/XAU's short term upcycle since 3-14-07 (Wave B of the major downcycle since 2-23-07 for HUI/XAU (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and Wave 1 of a monthly upcycle for NEM). Previously I said the Elliott Wave count was Wave 4 down of Wave 5 of the short term upcycle since 3-14-07.

On the daily chart one can see that there are two spike cycle highs corresponding to very short term Wave 1 and 3 cycle highs, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Why Yahoo doesn't show the bar for the current day is beyond me, but, one can see the two spikes/very short term cycle highs.

So, in Wave 5 the expected NEM/XAU upside gap filling action should occur, as discussed in recent days. I was trying to use the Yahoo 5 day intraday chart to arrive at the Elliott Wave count, but, it's better to use both the daily and intraday charts, with the daily chart being the primary chart and the 5 day intraday chart being more for finetuning/very short term/intraday cycles. I was relying too much on the 5 day intraday chart to arrive at the Elliott Wave count.

The important weekly Fed Credit data released yesterday points to weakness in the 5 day period ending 3-28-07, because, Fed Credit fell -$468 Million in the 5 day period ending 3-21-07, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at "Unlikely."

It looks like NEM will fill it's upside gap at 44.53 and possibly also 45.10 in the next few days, and, the XAU will probably fill it's upside gap at 139.66. Once NEM fills 45.10 I'll be looking to exit my long NEM/long NEM April 45 calls (NEMDI) positions. One usually will exit trading positions shortly after gap filling action is completed, unless there are very good reasons for remaining in the position(s). Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."

If it looks like the upside gap at 45.10 might not get filled until later I might exit before 45.10 gets filled. A trader should always be assessing the situation and should never be 100% sold on any scenario.

I bought NEM on 3-16 at 42.56, and, I bought NEM April 45 Calls (NEMDI) at a basis/average cost of 0.78, very close to 3-16's cycle lows at 42.51 and 0.75 (bought 40% of the contracts at 0.75 and 60% at 0.80), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

In the countertrend Wave B since 3-14 NEM will probably fill upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and possibly also at 47.06, and, the XAU will probably fill upside gaps at 136.66 (filled 3-20) and 139.66, but not the one at 147.75, because it's a likely bearish breakaway gap to the downside, and, the XAU would exceed 2-23-07's minor intermediate term cycle high if it filled 147.75. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= for the XAU's five day chart. So, watch NEM's upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10 (possibly also at 47.06), and, watch the XAU's upside gap at 139.66.

NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 139.66, and at 147.75 for the XAU. NEM has downside gaps at 41.44 and 42.14, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98 and a downside gap at 46.21. I need to check WMT's historical data further to see if there are more gaps.

In the next few months HUI/XAU should decline 40-45%+ (from 2-23-07's minor intermediate term cycle highs) to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since November/October 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's target range is 200-220 (220 if the primary trendline turns up) and the XAU's is 85-90.

Annotated chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html shows HUI as of 3-2-07 with Elliott Wave count. HUI/XAU are in a major Wave C decline of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (Secular Bull Market since late 2000). It's Wave C of Wave C for HUI, and Wave C of Wave C of Wave C for the XAU.

Note how the gold ETF GLD (and HUI/NEM/XAU) tracks SPX due to program trading, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=GLD&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. This shows how clueless the manipulation theory gold writers are. There simply aren't any traders who can overcome the huge program trading money, 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, yet many gold writers harp on gold price suppression by some "cartel."

Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for HUI/XAU as well as for SPX (S & P 500), and, to a lesser extent for NEM, which should be in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for the stock market in general, meaning the major averages and nearly all sectors except a few defensive ones (despite what most gold "gurus" say gold isn't a safe haven/defensive sector, T Bills and T Bonds are, which run COUNTER to the precious metals sector, which does well in an inflationary rising interest rate environment).

Fed Credit is extremely important because it fuels index fund program traders, that account for about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Just look at what happened on Tuesday 2-27. THREE out of five hundred SPX components rose. Unreal.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

HUI/NEM/XAU Appear To Have Completed An Intraday Elliott Wave ABC Downcycle

HUI/NEM/XAU appear to have completed an intraday Elliott Wave ABC downcycle shortly before session's end, that was Wave 4 down of Wave 5 of the short term upcycle since 3-14-07 (Wave B for HUI/XAU, Wave 1 for NEM), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.

The WMT Lead Indicator became progressively more bullish versus the S & P 500 as the session progressed, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and, closed at a very bullish +0.54% versus SPX today/on 3-22.

The NEM Lead Indicator became modestly more bullish (gap narrowed modestly) toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, but, closed at a bearish -0.69% versus the XAU today/on 3-22.

Thomson I Watch turned bullish toward session's end today for NEM (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem), but, was a mixed bag for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi) and for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt). GFI's sell interest subsided dramatically in the second half of the session.

Part of today's relatively modest weakness was due to the fact that HUI/NEM/XAU became extremely overbought short term, with Williams %R hitting an extremely overbought 0 early on. Also, it was a typical Elliott Wave ABC correction to the large spike move/Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle that began late yesterday.

The important weekly Fed Credit data released today points to weakness in the 5 day period ending 3-28-07, because, Fed Credit fell -$468 Million in the 5 day period ending 3-21-07, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at "Unlikely."

It looks like NEM will fill it's upside gap at 44.53 and possibly also 45.10 tomorrow or Monday, and, the XAU will probably fill it's upside gap at 139.66. Once NEM fills 45.10 I'll be looking to exit my long NEM/long NEM April 45 calls (NEMDI) positions. One usually will exit trading positions shortly after gap filling action is completed, unless there are very good reasons for remaining in the position(s). Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."

If it looks like the upside gap at 45.10 might not get filled until later I might exit before 45.10 gets filled. A trader should always be assessing the situation and should never be 100% sold on any scenario.

I bought NEM on 3-16 at 42.56, and, I bought NEM April 45 Calls (NEMDI) at a basis/average cost of 0.78, very close to 3-16's cycle lows at 42.51 and 0.75 (bought 40% of the contracts at 0.75 and 60% at 0.80), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

In the countertrend Wave B since 3-14 NEM will probably fill upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and possibly also at 47.06, and, the XAU will probably fill upside gaps at 136.66 (filled 3-20) and 139.66, but not the one at 147.75, because it's a likely bearish breakaway gap to the downside, and, the XAU would exceed 2-23-07's minor intermediate term cycle high if it filled 147.75. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= for the XAU's five day chart. So, watch NEM's upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10 (possibly also at 47.06), and, watch the XAU's upside gap at 139.66.

NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 139.66, and at 147.75 for the XAU. NEM has downside gaps at 41.44 and 42.14, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98 and a downside gap at 46.21. I need to check WMT's historical data further to see if there are more gaps.

In the next few months HUI/XAU should decline 40-45%+ (from 2-23-07's minor intermediate term cycle highs) to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since November/October 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI's target range is 200-220 (220 if the primary trendline turns up) and the XAU's is 85-90.

Annotated chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html shows HUI as of 3-2-07 with Elliott Wave count. HUI/XAU are in a major Wave C decline of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (Secular Bull Market since late 2000). It's Wave C of Wave C for HUI, and Wave C of Wave C of Wave C for the XAU.

Note how the gold ETF GLD (and HUI/NEM/XAU) tracks SPX due to program trading, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=GLD&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. This shows how clueless the manipulation theory gold writers are. There simply aren't any traders who can overcome the huge program trading money, 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, yet many gold writers harp on gold price suppression by some "cartel."

Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for HUI/XAU as well as for SPX (S & P 500), and, to a lesser extent for NEM, which should be in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for the stock market in general, meaning the major averages and nearly all sectors except a few defensive ones (despite what most gold "gurus" say gold isn't a safe haven/defensive sector, T Bills and T Bonds are, which run COUNTER to the precious metals sector, which does well in an inflationary rising interest rate environment).

Fed Credit is extremely important because it fuels index fund program traders, that account for about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE. Just look at what happened on Tuesday 2-27. THREE out of five hundred SPX components rose. Unreal.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU