The S & P 500 (SPX) Is In A Countertrend Wave B Type Upcycle

The S & P 500 (SPX) is in a countertrend Wave B type upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. It looked like a Wave B of Wave C cycle high occurred two days ago (bearish spike on black candle), but, it turns out that SPX is in a countertrend Wave B upcycle since 10-28. But, the situation is basically the same as discussed the past few days, the market/most sectors/indexes probably didn't bottom yet.

Sometimes unpredictable rollover upside action occurs, but, all it does is delay the expected weakness, and it creates a better shorting opportunity.

Starting the Elliott Wave count from the cycle high at 1044.31 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), SPX did a two week+ Wave A down (did Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern) to 845.27, that bottomed on 10-28, and, a countertrend Wave B type upcycle is in effect now, that probably didn't peak yet (WMT Lead Indicator was +0.40% versus SPX today/on 10-31), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

In the next few days to a week, SPX/NDX/RUT and most other indexes/sectors will probably take out their recent lows (10-10-08 for SPX/RUT and the XOI).

The Russell 2000 (RUT), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, like the gold/silver stock sector, APPEARS to have bottomed. Doubtful. The gold/silver stock sector is less doubtful, but still definitely doubtful.

The lead indicators jive with expected severe weakness in the near future, for most sectors/indexes.

The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is very bearish (+0.40% versus SPX today/on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish (which is very short term bullish, -1.11% versus the XAU today/on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is super bearish (-3.01% versus the XOI today/on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom. I'm looking to trade the XOI ultra short via DUG early next week, once the current countertrend action clearly breaks down and does a sharp Wave A down (of Wave C) type plunge.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) still probably need to do Wave 5 of the gigantic short term Wave 1 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c. The plunge early yesterday 10-30 was probably Wave A down of Wave 4 of Wave 1, not the entire Wave 4 of Wave 1 as previously discussed. Today 10-31's very bearish NEM Lead Indicator, at -1.11% versus the XAU on 10-31, points to early weakness on Monday. So, I might look to trade AEM or GDX long on Monday after likely early weakness.

The intraday chart Elliott Wave count above jives with the daily chart Elliott Wave count, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI, since 10-24's short term Wave 1 upcycle began (potential start of the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, if not, then the current upcycle is a monster short term Wave B), has done an up down up, and, is currently in Wave 4 down of Wave 1 (or a Wave B).

It looks like a GDX/HUI/XAU short term Wave 1 cycle high will occur early next week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Wave 1 up of Wave 1 peaked a third of the way into 10-24's session (150.27 HUI cycle low just after the open was probably a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low). Wave 2 down of Wave 1 bottomed just before 10-27's close. Wave 3 up of Wave 1 peaked just after 10-30's open. Wave A of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 bottomed a third of the way into 10-30's session, Wave B of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 peaked late today in rollover mode, Wave C of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 should bottom early Monday, and, Wave 5 up of Wave 1 looks like it'll peak early next week, so, there should be a good shorting opportunity early next week. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably/appears to be over (don't be shocked if it isn't), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI/XAU still need to hit a 5% major buy signal however, before Trade the Cycles indicates that they've very likely bottomed. This still could end up being the mother of all headfakes. Also, gold very likely hasn't bottomed.

Gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) lags GDX/HUI/XAU, and, will probably bottom at $500ish, maybe $450 or even lower.

There should be a good XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) shorting opportunity early next week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

The five day intraday XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator (-3.01% versus the XOI today/on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27, +3.46% on 10-24) suggests that there might be some early strength on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=xom.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% on 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.

SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in five consecutive sessions recently.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000, might have bottomed, doubtful), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU might still be in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market Since Mid March Is Probably Over

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably over, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI/XAU still need to hit a 5% major buy signal however, before Trade the Cycles indicates that they've very likely bottomed. This still could end up being the mother of all headfakes. Also, gold very likely hasn't bottomed.

It looks like a GDX/HUI/XAU short term Wave 1 cycle high will occur early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Wave 1 up of Wave 1 peaked a third of the way into 10-24's session (150.27 HUI cycle low just after the open was probably a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low). Wave 2 down of Wave 1 bottomed just before 10-27's close. Wave 3 up of Wave 1 peaked just after today 10-30's open. Wave 4 down of Wave 1 bottomed a third of the way into today's session, and, Wave 5 up of Wave 1 looks like it'll peak early tomorrow, so, there should be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

The five day NEM Lead Indicator (+2.34% versus the XAU today/on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27, -2.08% on 10-24) is super bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

Gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) lags GDX/HUI/XAU, and, will probably bottom at $500ish, maybe $450 or even lower.

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) appears to have put in a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type cycle high yesterday, as discussed yesterday, and, was doing an intraday Wave B of Wave C type move most of today, that appears to have peaked near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

So, there should be a good SPX/major averages shorting opportunity early tomorrow, which jives with the very bearish intraday five day broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (was -3.07% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27, +0.87% on 10-24), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Yesterday's SPX (S & P 500) cycle high was probably a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the bearish large spike on a bearish black candle (black indicates a close below the open) yesterday 10-29.

Starting the Elliott Wave count from the cycle high at 1044.31, SPX did a two day Wave A down to 867ish, then did a three day countertrend Wave B upcycle to 985.44, followed by a week long Wave A of Wave C downcycle to 845.27, that bottomed on 10-28, then, a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type cycle high probably occurred yesterday 10-29 at 969.97. The bearish large spike on a bearish black candle yesterday jives with this Elliott Wave count.

In the next few days to a week, SPX/NDX/RUT and most other indexes/sectors will probably take out their recent lows (10-10-08 for SPX/RUT and the XOI).

There should be a good XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) shorting opportunity early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I'll look to day trade the XOI ultra short via DUG early tomorrow, if I'm not day trading the major averages ultra short or day trading GDX or gold short. I day traded DUG twice today and netted over 27 cents per share.

The five day intraday XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator (-3.26% versus the XOI today/on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27, +3.46% on 10-24) suggests that there might be some early strength tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=xom.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% on 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.

SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in five consecutive sessions recently.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU might still be in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

Today's SPX (S & P 500) Cycle High Was Probably A Countertrend Wave B Of Wave C Cycle High

Today's SPX (S & P 500) cycle high was probably a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the bearish large spike on a bearish black candle (black indicates a close below the open) today 10-29.

Starting the Elliott Wave count from the cycle high at 1044.31, SPX did a two day Wave A down to 867ish, then did a three day countertrend Wave B upcycle to 985.44, followed by a week long Wave A of Wave C downcycle to 845.27, that bottomed yesterday 10-28, then, a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type cycle high occurred today 10-29 at 969.97. The bearish large spike on a bearish black candle today jives with this Elliott Wave count.

So, in the next few days to a week, SPX/NDX/RUT and most other indexes/sectors will probably take out their recent lows (10-10-08 for SPX/RUT and the XOI).

One exception APPEARS to be the gold/silver stock sector. GDX/HUI/XAU are in Wave 3 of a gigantic short term Wave 1 upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, ASSUMING they've bottomed/entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market. They still need to hit a 5% follow through major buy signal. The NEM Lead Indicator was a super bearish -12.86% versus the XAU today/on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27, -2.08% on 10-24, -0.85% on 10-23.

The five day broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish (+0.84% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27, +0.87% on 10-24, -0.32% on 10-23, +3.49% on 10-22, +1.68% on 10-21), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is a very short term bearish sign.

SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas)/other indexes did a Wave A down type move at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, it looks like there'll be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow. I'll look to day trade the XOI ultra short via DUG. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% yesterday 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.

SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in each of the prior five sessions.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU might still be in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

The 5 day XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator (-3.62% versus the XOI today/on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27, +3.46% on 10-24, +2.79% on 10-23, +0.47% on 10-22, +0.57% on 10-21) remains extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=xom.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

......."Stocks Soar on Hopes for Fed Rate Cut"

"Stocks Soar on Hopes for Fed Rate Cut," see http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/business/29markets.html. Part of the article is below.

"On a day when a consumer confidence report that showed Americans were more pessimistic about the economy in October than at anytime in 41 years, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 889.35 points, or 10.8 percent, to 9,065.12, closing above 9,000 for the first time in a week.

The broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was 10.79 percent or 91.59 points higher, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq was up 9.53 percent or 143.57 points.

Stock analysts struggled to make sense of the gains. Some attributed it to investors finally deciding to grab stocks at bargain prices, but others warned not to make too much of the rally — even one of almost 900 points — during a volatile month that has frequently seen steep gains and losses.

“To put this in perspective, we are still almost 22 percent down for the month, which is the worst month since 1940,” said Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at Standard & Poor’s. The gains, he said, come amid a month of record sell-offs in global markets and continued signs of a slowdown.

Despite Tuesday’s gains, the Nasdaq was on track for its biggest monthly drop since 2001. The S.&P. remained 35 percent down for the year.

“To say today is a turning point is no more than to say yesterday was the beginning of the end,” Mr. Silverblatt said. “I could make either argument, and I don’t believe either of them.”

Richard Sparks, an analyst at Schaeffer’s Investment Research, said, “The market is going to have to do a lot more to impress me.”

“We’ve seen these big rallies before,” Mr. Sparks said, “including the 900-point rally after the Oct. 10 drop, and they dissipated pretty quickly. I think this is a significant bounce in an overall down trend.”"

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Today's Monster Short Covering Spike Move Was Probably Countertrend Wave B Type Action

Today 10-28's monster short covering spike move, in anticipation of a Fed rate cut announcement tomorrow at 11:15 am EST, was probably countertrend Wave B type action for most indexes/sectors, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. I eagerly look forward to trading short tomorrow. Anyone who got or gets excited by this sucker's spike, and went long, is likely to get annihilated.

How do I "know" (very likely) that today 10-28's huge spike move was very likely countertrend Wave B type action. For one thing, huge spike moves like this tend to occur in countertrend type action, which tends to be much more vertical/spiking type action than what occurs in normal upcycles, except when important cycle highs occur. Basically, huge spike moves tend to mark important cycle highs, whether it's a countertrend Wave B type cycle high, or, a Wave 1, Wave 3, or Wave 5 type cycle high.

Also, the five day broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish (+0.28% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27, +0.87% on 10-24, -0.32% on 10-23, +3.49% on 10-22, +1.68% on 10-21), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is usually a very short term bearish sign.

It looks like the S & P 500 (SPX)/the market will follow through briefly to the upside early tomorrow (a big spike move is likely), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Then, a great shorting opportunity should arise early tomorrow. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

I'll be looking trade the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) ultra short via DUG (downside gaps at 47.70 and 45.20 got filled today 10-28, watch 39.50, 38.85 tomorrow) early tomorrow, or, I'll look to trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra short via SDS/QID/TWM, or, I'll look to short GDX or gold (via DZZ or shorting GLD).

Fellow gold bugs, it's POSSIBLE that GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since mid March 2008) cycle low/finally bottomed, but, it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% today 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before yesterday 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.

These are great signs (+22.89% NEM gain today 10-28, double bottom the prior two days) for gold bugs, as is the fact that the reliable NEM Lead Indicator was an off the charts super bullish +9.90% versus the XAU today/on 10-28. The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.

SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in each of the past five sessions.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

The 5 day XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator (-0.45% versus the XOI today/on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27, +3.46% on 10-24, +2.79% on 10-23, +0.47% on 10-22, +0.57% on 10-21) has turned "super bullish," see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=xom.

Concerning GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) the NEM Lead Indicator turned super bullish today (which is very short term very bearish), at +9.90% versus the XAU today/on 10-28, at -0.40% on 10-27, -2.08% on 10-24, and, -0.85% on 10-23. See HUI's five day chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

In order for HUI's Secular Bull Market to remain intact, all HUI has to do is to bottom above it's Secular Bear Market cycle low at 35.31 that occurred in November 2000 (HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) Very Long Term Upcycle/Secular Bull Market began on November 15, 2000 after the 35.31 very long term cycle low). If HUI's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 bottoms at 36 or even 35.32, then HUI will be in a Secular Bull Market/Very Long Term Upcycle as expected.

The HUI/XAU/GDX (Gold Miners ETF, based on the obscure AMEX Gold Miners Index) Secular Bull Market uptrend line isn't known/defined until the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low occurs.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

I'm Waiting For DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) To Complete An Intraday Elliott Wave ABC Down Up Down Pattern

I'm waiting for DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) to complete an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern (getting close as I write this, might have bottomed), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dug&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Wave A bottomed at 11:45 am. Wave B peaked at noon. Wave C should bottom at 51 to 52.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is a very short term bearish sign.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

SPX's (S & P 500) Wave C Type Move Since Friday's Open Will Probably Bottom Early Tomorrow

SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Wave C downcycle type move since Friday 10-24's open will probably bottom early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) did Wave A of Wave C in Friday 10-24's plunge at the open, in a which a bearish breakaway upside gap at 908.11 was created. The countertrend Wave B up of Wave C peaked late on Friday 10-24. Wave A of Wave C of Wave C bottomed when today 10-27's plunge at the open bottomed shortly after the open. Wave B of Wave C of Wave C peaked at 1:40ish, and, SPX ended the session in a final Wave C of Wave C of Wave C type move, that'll probably bottom early tomorrow.

SPX's bearish large spike on a bearish black (close below the open) candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, is a sign that early weakness is likely tomorrow.

SPX's (S & P 500) technical indicators like RSI (29.27) and Williams %R (-95.54 out of a maximum of -100) are very oversold, which points to a bounce after likely early weakness.

Looking at the five day broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (-0.19% versus SPX today/on 10-27, +0.87% on 10-24, -0.32% on 10-23, +3.49% on 10-22, +1.68% on 10-21), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, the fact that it's extremely bullish correctly pointed to very short term weakness. The past three sessions it's modestly bullish though, which jives with a bounce beginning probably early tomorrow, after likely early weakness.

SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX has put in lower cycle lows in each of the past four sessions.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is definitely in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. So, I'll look to day trade the XOI ultra long via DIG tomorrow, after likely early weakness. Today I day traded the XOI ultra short via DUG, buying at 53.11 and selling at 54.35.

The 5 day XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator (+1.46% versus the XOI today/on 10-27, +3.46% on 10-24, +2.79% on 10-23, +0.47% on 10-22, +0.57% on 10-21) has turned "super bullish," see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=xom, so maybe the XOI will put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low tomorrow.

Concerning GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) the NEM Lead Indicator remained bearish today, at a modestly bearish -0.40% versus the XAU today/on 10-27, -2.08% on 10-24, and, -0.85% on 10-23. It looks like HUI will take out Friday's cycle low at 150.27 early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

In order for HUI's Secular Bull Market to remain intact, all HUI has to do is to bottom above it's Secular Bear Market cycle low at 35.31 that occurred in November 2000 (HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) Very Long Term Upcycle/Secular Bull Market began on November 15, 2000 after the 35.31 very long term cycle low). If HUI's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 bottoms at 36 or even 35.32, then HUI will be in a Secular Bull Market/Very Long Term Upcycle as expected.

The HUI/XAU/GDX (Gold Miners ETF, based on the obscure AMEX Gold Miners Index) Secular Bull Market uptrend line isn't known/defined until the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low occurs.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

The S & P 500 (SPX) COT (Commitments of Traders) Data Jives With Expected Weakness

The S & P 500 (SPX) COT (Commitments of Traders) data jives with expected weakness early this week, see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm, scroll down about halfway to see the S & P 500 (SPX) COT (Commitments of Traders - Futures Only, October 21, 2008) data, and, the E-Mini S&P 500 and the E-Mini S&P 400 COT data directly below the S & P 500 (SPX) COT data.

The savvy non contrarian S & P 500 (SPX) Commercial Traders traded significantly net short. As I said on Friday (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/10/spx-s-p-500-and-xoi-amex-oil-gas-are.html), SPX and RUT/XOI etc probably didn't put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on 10-10-08. Buckle up!

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Silver Had Two Cyclical Bear Markets In The Prior Secular Bull Market

See http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/SI1970-80.gif to see silver's two Cyclical Bear Markets in the prior Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980 (the link might not work after a while, if so, see http://www.chartsrus.com/), corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles.

From the Spring of 1968 until late 1971 (3.5 years) silver experienced a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, and, in the mid 1970s silver experienced a Wave 4 Cyclical Bear Market, in which the multi year downtrend line that began in 1974 wasn't decisively broken until 1978.

Yes, Cyclical Bear Markets not only happen in a Secular Bull Market, but, they're likely to occur, and, are corrections from a generational point of view. Ignore the quacks.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

Both Gold and Silver Had Two Cyclical Bear Markets in the Prior Secular Bull Market That Peaked in 1980

Both gold and silver had two Cyclical Bear Markets in the prior Secular Bull Market that peaked in 1980, corresponding to Elliott Wave 2 and 4 downcycles, see gold's Wave 4 Cyclical Bear Market (-45%ish decline) from December 1974 until August 1976 at
http://www.chartsrus.com/chart.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/GC1976btm.gif.

There's nothing unusual at all about gold and silver experiencing a Cyclical Bear Market in a Secular Bull Market. They are corrections from a generational point of view, and, are to be EXPECTED, despite what the Adam Hamiltons of this world might say, see http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton102508.html.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) Are Probably Still in a Cyclical Bear Market

SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX took out yesterday 10-23's cycle low, that appeared to be a short term Wave 2 cycle low.

The five day broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is very short term bearish for SPX (S & P 500) and most indexes/sectors, because, SPX and the market didn't respond/rally as it normally would with such a bullish broad market lead indicator.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator, at an extremely bullish +3.46% versus the XOI today/on 10-24, and, at +2.79% on 10-23, is very bearish very short term, because, the XOI didn't respond/rally as it normally would with such a bullish sector lead indicator.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is definitely in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are GDX/HUI/XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

Looking at SPX's 5 day candlestick chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c, the crash at the open was very likely a Wave A down type move, the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up intraday upcycle, that failed to fill today's upside gap at 908.11, a bearish sign obviously, because, 908.11 is probably a bearish breakaway gap, is very likely a countertrend Wave B upcycle type move, and, SPX ended the session in Wave A down of a likely Wave C down type move.

I'll be looking to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra short via SDS/QID/TWM early on Monday, or, more likely, I'll look to day trade the XOI ultra short via DUG. DUG might have completed an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle shortly before session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dug&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bearish, at -2.08% versus the XAU today/on 10-24, and, it was a bearish -0.85% on 10-23. GDX/HUI/XAU still probably have substantial downside. I'll be looking to short GDX and/or gold (short GLD or trade DZZ, the double short gold Exchange Traded Note (ETN)) on Monday.

In order for HUI's Secular Bull Market to remain intact, all HUI has to do is to bottom above it's Secular Bear Market cycle low at 35.31 that occurred in November 2000 (HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) Very Long Term Upcycle/Secular Bull Market began on November 15, 2000 after the 35.31 very long term cycle low). If HUI's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 bottoms at 36 or even 35.32, then HUI will be in a Secular Bull Market/Very Long Term Upcycle as expected.

The HUI/XAU/GDX (Gold Miners ETF, based on the obscure AMEX Gold Miners Index) Secular Bull Market uptrend line isn't known/defined until the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low occurs.

Note that reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has a very large very bearish spike on today 10-24's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. However, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.87% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 10-24.

A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

I'm Looking To Trade DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF)

I'm looking to trade DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF), because, DUG created a huge bullish potential breakaway type gap up at the open (downside gap at 47.70), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dug&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. DUG is trying to fill today's downside gap at 47.70, in an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle. Once that downcycle bottoms I'll look to trade DUG.

Looking at the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas Index http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, the crash at today 10-24's open is very likely a Wave A down type move, the rebound is a countertrend Wave B type move, that I'm looking to ultra short via DUG, to catch the Wave C type decline.

The XOI's potential short term Wave 2 cycle low on 10-16-08 will probably get tested today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Of course, one also can't rule out that the potential Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on 10-10-08 gets tested also.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The S & P 500 (SPX) Put in a Short Term Wave 2 Cycle Low Today

The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low today, not on 10-16 as previously thought, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the large bullish inverse spike on today 10-23's candle.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) remains in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) until proven otherwise, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, putting in a lower cycle low today. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on today 10-23's candle.

The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) probably put in a Wave 2 cycle low yesterday 10-22, of the short term Wave 3 upcycle since 10-16-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. The XOI put in a slightly higher bullish double bottom cycle low today, so, I'll be looking to trade the XOI ultra long via DIG tomorrow (watch DIG's upside gap at 34.50 from yesterday 10-22's open). Since the short term cycles were unclear today, until very late in the session, I didn't do any trading. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas Index) appeared to be in Wave 5 of a big intraday Wave 3 type move (began at 2:50ish) at session's end today (Wave 1 peaked at 2:35ish), of the upcycle that began late today (2:20ish), see the one day chart http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. After today see the 5 day chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.

So, after an intraday Wave 4 down type move bottoms (Wave 5 of Wave 3 pop should occur at the open/very early on tomorrow), I'll look to trade the XOI ultra long via DIG tomorrow, to catch the final Wave 5 of Wave 5 upcycle. I'm using a large 10 minute chart, that's very useful for finetuning (via Elliott Wave patterns, they're very useful, even on a 10 minute chart) entry and exit points.

The intraday one and five day candlestick XOI (or whatever index I happen to be trading) charts (at Yahoo, many indexes are real time or nearly so) are very useful for determining and finetuning the Elliott Wave count. I also use real time ASKResearch.com charting ($25/month).

Concerning GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags) one should obviously wait for a 5% major buy signal. HUI (and GDX/XAU) doesn't appear to have bottomed yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

As bullish as the NEM Lead Indicator has become, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, at a bearish -0.85% versus the XAU today/on 10-23, at an extremely bullish (which was correctly very short term bearish) +2.21% on 10-22, +2.78% on 10-21, +2.23% on 10-20, -2.02% on 10-17, +3.23% on 10-16, +5.62% on 10-15, -0.20% on 10-14, +2.42% on 10-13, a very important Wave 2 (since mid March) Cyclical Bear Market cycle low could occur any day now for GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags and silver lags gold).

The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) probably put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low today/on 10-23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the large bullish inverse spike on 10-23's candle.

The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) put in a lower cycle low today/on 10-23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, that's potentially (doubtful) a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) cycle low. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-23's candle.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have (doubtful) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today/on 10-23-08 at 22.35, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (not NDX) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish
-0.32% versus SPX today/on 10-23, was an extremely bullish (correctly very short term bearish) +3.49% on 10-22, was a very bullish +1.68% on 10-21, was an extremely bearish -3.54% on 10-20, was a bearish -0.94% on 10-17, was an extremely bullish+4.88% on 10-16, was +0.98% on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.

A now probably defunct (except NDX) Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

The gold ETF GLD is trying to complete an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern (probably bottomed yesterday 10-22-08), that's Wave A of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08, since putting in a countertrend Wave B type monthly cycle high at 90.84 on 9-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.

The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.

Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (very short term bearish) +2.79% versus the XOI today/on 10-23, was a bullish +0.47% on 10-22, was a bullish +0.57% on 10-21, was a very bearish -1.47% on 10-20, was an extremely bearish -2.24% on 10-17 (which was correctly very short term bullish, pointing to strength on Monday 10-20), was an extremely bullish +5.22% on 10-16, was a bullish +0.72% on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

VIX fell a sharp -2.66% today 10-23 versus SPX rising a significant +1.26%, which is a significant +1.40% rise in complacency (-2.66% + +1.26% = -1.40% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Friday 10-24.

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 998.01, 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX's (S & P 500) Elliott Wave Count Might Change

SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Elliott Wave count might change, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, because, if 10-16's cycle low is taken out tomorrow 10-23, a definite and probably likely scenario, then SPX is in a short term Wave 2 down now, not, Wave 2 of a short term Wave 3. Of course, also watch the 10-10-08 cycle low, that's still just a potential Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.

Pointing to SPX/market/most sectors weakness tomorrow 10-23 is the extremely bullish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +3.49% versus SPX today/on 10-22 (+1.68% on 10-21), that's actually very short term bearish, because, the market didn't respond to such a bullish WMT Lead Indicator.

Also, VIX, the SPX Volatility Index, rose a dramatic
+31.14% today 10-22, which is an unusually large rise in fear that points to significant SPX/market weakness early tomorrow.

The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas Index, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) might also test 10-16's cycle low, that, like SPX, appears to be a short term Wave 2 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug) created a huge 9%ish very bullish breakaway type gap up at today 10-22's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dug&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, I traded DUG again today (should have done much better), buying at 51.267 and selling at 51.393, in a less than two minute day trade.

Early tomorrow, once I'm convinced that the XOI has bottomed, I'll be looking to trade the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) ultra long via DIG (watch the upside gap at 34.50 from today 10-22's open, and, the XOI's at 905.32), with backup trades being ultra long SPX/NDX/RUT via SSO/QLD/UWM. Obviously, if DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) creates another large bullish breakaway type gap at tomorrow's open, I'll look to trade DUG again. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

Concerning GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags) one should obviously wait for a 5% major buy signal. HUI (and GDX/XAU) doesn't appear to have bottomed yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

However, take it from a REAL market timer and a REAL trader, as opposed to a BSing gold charlatan quack, this might REALLY be it. As bullish as the NEM Lead Indicator has become, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, at an extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish) +2.21% versus the XAU today/on 10-22, +2.78% on 10-21, +2.23% on 10-20, -2.02% on 10-17, +3.23% on 10-16, +5.62% on 10-15, -0.20% on 10-14, +2.42% on 10-13, a very important Wave 2 (since mid March) Cyclical Bear Market cycle low could occur any day now for GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags).

Tomorrow 10-23 has a good chance of being the GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags) Wave 2 (since mid March) Cyclical Bear Market cycle low. HUI hit 167.61 today, -16.32%, very extreme volatility, which is a sign that HUI and GDX/XAU might finally bottom tomorrow.

That's the best good news I can provide right now. As spectacular as the gold sector is in a Cyclical Bull Market, it's just as spectacular on the downside, which makes sense. The bigger the party/bubble the bigger the hangover/bust tends to be. That's just the way commodity/stock market/economic cycles work.

The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) put in (doubtful now) a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.

The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) also put in (doubtful now) a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) put in a slightly lower bullish double bottom cycle low on 10-16, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, that's potentially a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) cycle low. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle. NDX is in (doubtful now) a short term Wave 2 downcycle.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have (doubtful obviously) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low on 10-22-08 at 24.38, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (NDX on 10-16) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (very short term bearish) +3.49% versus SPX today/on 10-22, was a very bullish +1.68% on 10-21, was an extremely bearish -3.54% on 10-20, was a bearish -0.94% on 10-17, was an extremely bullish+4.88% on 10-16, was +0.98% on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.

A now probably defunct Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

The gold ETF GLD is trying to complete an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that's Wave A of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08, since putting in a countertrend Wave B type monthly cycle high at 90.84 on 9-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.

The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.

Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.47% versus the XOI today/on 10-22, was a bullish +0.57% on 10-21, was a very bearish -1.47% on 10-20, was an extremely bearish -2.24% on 10-17 (which was correctly very short term bullish, pointing to strength on Monday 10-20), was an extremely bullish +5.22% on 10-16, was a bullish +0.72% on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

VIX rose an unusually large +31.14% today 10-22 versus SPX falling an unusually large -6.10%, which is an unusually large +25.04% rise in fear (+31.14% + -6.10% = +25.04% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Thursday 10-23.

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 998.01, 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

I'm Looking To Trade DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) Right Now

DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug) created a huge 9%ish very bullish breakaway type gap up at today 10-22's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dug&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, I'm looking to day trade DUG right now, not DIG (Ultra Oil & Gas ETF) yet, once DUG does an Elliott Wave ABC down up down intraday correction.

The XOI's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) crash at the open/early on was (very likely) an intraday Wave A downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, the rebound that began at 10:05 am is very likely an intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle, that I'm looking to day trade ultra short soon via DUG. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

SPX's (S & P 500) Wave 1 Of The Short Term Wave 3 Upcycle Since 10-16-08 Peaked Early Today

SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Wave 1 of the Short Term Wave 3 Upcycle since early on 10-16-08 peaked early today (triple top the past 3 days, 985.44 cycle high today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

Then, SPX did/is doing (probably still in a Wave C type move at session's end/early tomorrow) an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, which is Wave 2 down of the Short Term Wave 3 Upcycle, that will probably bottom early tomorrow. Remember to watch SPX's upside gap at 998.01 from 10-15's open, that should get filled in the next day or two.

Early tomorrow I'll be looking to trade the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) ultra long via DIG (watch the downside gap at 30.08 from yesterday 10-20's open), with backup trades being ultra long SPX/NDX/RUT via SSO/QLD/UWM. Today I "DUG it," with a less than 4 minute day trade, buying DUG at 44.69 and selling it a little above 45.

The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) put in a Wave 1 cycle high late yesterday of the short term Wave 3 upcycle since 10-16-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. It looks like the XOI, like SPX, was doing Wave C late today of Wave 2 down of the short term Wave 3 upcycle since 10-16, and, it looks like it'll bottom early tomorrow, well below today's likely Wave A type cycle low. The ultra long XOI ETF DIG looks good once the XOI bottoms (Wave 2 of a short term Wave 3), probably early tomorrow. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.

The highly useful 5 day intraday XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish (+0.57% versus the XOI today/on 10-21, -1.47% on 10-20, -2.24% on 10-17, +5.22% on 10-16, +0.72% on 10-15), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.

The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator, used in concert with the sector lead indicators, was a very bullish +1.68% versus SPX today/on 10-21.

Concerning the GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags) one has to wait for a 5% major buy signal. HUI (and GDX/XAU) doesn't appear to have bottomed yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

As bullish as the NEM Lead Indicator has become, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, at an extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish) +2.78% versus the XAU today/on 10-21, +2.23% on 10-20, -2.02% on 10-17, +3.23% on 10-16, +5.62% on 10-15, -0.20% on 10-14, +2.42% on 10-13, a very important Wave 2 (since mid March) Cyclical Bear Market cycle low could occur any day now for GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags).

That's the best good news I can provide right now. As spectacular as the gold sector is in a Cyclical Bull Market, it's just as spectacular on the downside, which makes sense. The bigger the party/bubble the bigger the hangover/bust tends to be. That's just the way commodity/stock market/economic cycles work.

The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.

The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) also put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) put in a slightly lower bullish double bottom cycle low on 10-16, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, that's potentially a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) cycle low. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle. NDX is in a short term Wave 2 downcycle.

Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have (doubtful obviously) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low on 10-17-08 at 26.42, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Note the large somewhat bullish inverse spike on 10-17's candle, that obviously isn't bullish enough to be a likely Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.

Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (NDX on 10-16) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a very bullish
+1.68% versus SPX today/on 10-21, was an extremely bearish (very short term bullish) -3.54% on 10-20, was a bearish -0.94% on 10-17, was an extremely bullish+4.88% on 10-16, was a nearly very bullish +0.98% on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.

A now probably defunct Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

The gold ETF GLD might have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern today/on 10-21 (Wave A of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08), since putting in a countertrend Wave B type monthly cycle high at 90.84 on 9-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.

The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.

Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.57% versus the XOI today/on 10-21, was a very bearish -1.47% on 10-20, was an extremely bearish -2.24% on 10-17 (which was correctly very short term bullish, pointing to strength on Monday 10-20), was an extremely bullish +5.22% on 10-16, was a bullish +0.72% on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.

Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.

VIX rose a modest +0.26% today 10-21 versus SPX falling a very sharp -3.08%, which is a sharp +2.82% rise in complacency (+0.26% + -3.08% = -2.82% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some severe weakness early on Wednesday 10-22.

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 998.01, 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI