The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market Since Mid March Is Probably Over
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably over, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI/XAU still need to hit a 5% major buy signal however, before Trade the Cycles indicates that they've very likely bottomed. This still could end up being the mother of all headfakes. Also, gold very likely hasn't bottomed.
It looks like a GDX/HUI/XAU short term Wave 1 cycle high will occur early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Wave 1 up of Wave 1 peaked a third of the way into 10-24's session (150.27 HUI cycle low just after the open was probably a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low). Wave 2 down of Wave 1 bottomed just before 10-27's close. Wave 3 up of Wave 1 peaked just after today 10-30's open. Wave 4 down of Wave 1 bottomed a third of the way into today's session, and, Wave 5 up of Wave 1 looks like it'll peak early tomorrow, so, there should be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The five day NEM Lead Indicator (+2.34% versus the XAU today/on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27, -2.08% on 10-24) is super bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) lags GDX/HUI/XAU, and, will probably bottom at $500ish, maybe $450 or even lower.
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) appears to have put in a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type cycle high yesterday, as discussed yesterday, and, was doing an intraday Wave B of Wave C type move most of today, that appears to have peaked near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
So, there should be a good SPX/major averages shorting opportunity early tomorrow, which jives with the very bearish intraday five day broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (was -3.07% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27, +0.87% on 10-24), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
Yesterday's SPX (S & P 500) cycle high was probably a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the bearish large spike on a bearish black candle (black indicates a close below the open) yesterday 10-29.
Starting the Elliott Wave count from the cycle high at 1044.31, SPX did a two day Wave A down to 867ish, then did a three day countertrend Wave B upcycle to 985.44, followed by a week long Wave A of Wave C downcycle to 845.27, that bottomed on 10-28, then, a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type cycle high probably occurred yesterday 10-29 at 969.97. The bearish large spike on a bearish black candle yesterday jives with this Elliott Wave count.
In the next few days to a week, SPX/NDX/RUT and most other indexes/sectors will probably take out their recent lows (10-10-08 for SPX/RUT and the XOI).
There should be a good XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) shorting opportunity early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I'll look to day trade the XOI ultra short via DUG early tomorrow, if I'm not day trading the major averages ultra short or day trading GDX or gold short. I day traded DUG twice today and netted over 27 cents per share.
The five day intraday XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator (-3.26% versus the XOI today/on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27, +3.46% on 10-24) suggests that there might be some early strength tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=xom.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% on 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in five consecutive sessions recently.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU might still be in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
It looks like a GDX/HUI/XAU short term Wave 1 cycle high will occur early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Wave 1 up of Wave 1 peaked a third of the way into 10-24's session (150.27 HUI cycle low just after the open was probably a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low). Wave 2 down of Wave 1 bottomed just before 10-27's close. Wave 3 up of Wave 1 peaked just after today 10-30's open. Wave 4 down of Wave 1 bottomed a third of the way into today's session, and, Wave 5 up of Wave 1 looks like it'll peak early tomorrow, so, there should be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The five day NEM Lead Indicator (+2.34% versus the XAU today/on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27, -2.08% on 10-24) is super bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) lags GDX/HUI/XAU, and, will probably bottom at $500ish, maybe $450 or even lower.
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) appears to have put in a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type cycle high yesterday, as discussed yesterday, and, was doing an intraday Wave B of Wave C type move most of today, that appears to have peaked near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
So, there should be a good SPX/major averages shorting opportunity early tomorrow, which jives with the very bearish intraday five day broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (was -3.07% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27, +0.87% on 10-24), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
Yesterday's SPX (S & P 500) cycle high was probably a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the bearish large spike on a bearish black candle (black indicates a close below the open) yesterday 10-29.
Starting the Elliott Wave count from the cycle high at 1044.31, SPX did a two day Wave A down to 867ish, then did a three day countertrend Wave B upcycle to 985.44, followed by a week long Wave A of Wave C downcycle to 845.27, that bottomed on 10-28, then, a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type cycle high probably occurred yesterday 10-29 at 969.97. The bearish large spike on a bearish black candle yesterday jives with this Elliott Wave count.
In the next few days to a week, SPX/NDX/RUT and most other indexes/sectors will probably take out their recent lows (10-10-08 for SPX/RUT and the XOI).
There should be a good XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) shorting opportunity early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I'll look to day trade the XOI ultra short via DUG early tomorrow, if I'm not day trading the major averages ultra short or day trading GDX or gold short. I day traded DUG twice today and netted over 27 cents per share.
The five day intraday XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator (-3.26% versus the XOI today/on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27, +3.46% on 10-24) suggests that there might be some early strength tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=xom.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% on 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in five consecutive sessions recently.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU might still be in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:21 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home