Today's SPX (S & P 500) Cycle High Was Probably A Countertrend Wave B Of Wave C Cycle High
Today's SPX (S & P 500) cycle high was probably a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the bearish large spike on a bearish black candle (black indicates a close below the open) today 10-29.
Starting the Elliott Wave count from the cycle high at 1044.31, SPX did a two day Wave A down to 867ish, then did a three day countertrend Wave B upcycle to 985.44, followed by a week long Wave A of Wave C downcycle to 845.27, that bottomed yesterday 10-28, then, a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type cycle high occurred today 10-29 at 969.97. The bearish large spike on a bearish black candle today jives with this Elliott Wave count.
So, in the next few days to a week, SPX/NDX/RUT and most other indexes/sectors will probably take out their recent lows (10-10-08 for SPX/RUT and the XOI).
One exception APPEARS to be the gold/silver stock sector. GDX/HUI/XAU are in Wave 3 of a gigantic short term Wave 1 upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, ASSUMING they've bottomed/entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market. They still need to hit a 5% follow through major buy signal. The NEM Lead Indicator was a super bearish -12.86% versus the XAU today/on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27, -2.08% on 10-24, -0.85% on 10-23.
The five day broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish (+0.84% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27, +0.87% on 10-24, -0.32% on 10-23, +3.49% on 10-22, +1.68% on 10-21), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is a very short term bearish sign.
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas)/other indexes did a Wave A down type move at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, it looks like there'll be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow. I'll look to day trade the XOI ultra short via DUG. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% yesterday 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in each of the prior five sessions.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU might still be in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The 5 day XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator (-3.62% versus the XOI today/on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27, +3.46% on 10-24, +2.79% on 10-23, +0.47% on 10-22, +0.57% on 10-21) remains extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=xom.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Starting the Elliott Wave count from the cycle high at 1044.31, SPX did a two day Wave A down to 867ish, then did a three day countertrend Wave B upcycle to 985.44, followed by a week long Wave A of Wave C downcycle to 845.27, that bottomed yesterday 10-28, then, a countertrend Wave B of Wave C type cycle high occurred today 10-29 at 969.97. The bearish large spike on a bearish black candle today jives with this Elliott Wave count.
So, in the next few days to a week, SPX/NDX/RUT and most other indexes/sectors will probably take out their recent lows (10-10-08 for SPX/RUT and the XOI).
One exception APPEARS to be the gold/silver stock sector. GDX/HUI/XAU are in Wave 3 of a gigantic short term Wave 1 upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, ASSUMING they've bottomed/entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market. They still need to hit a 5% follow through major buy signal. The NEM Lead Indicator was a super bearish -12.86% versus the XAU today/on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27, -2.08% on 10-24, -0.85% on 10-23.
The five day broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish (+0.84% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27, +0.87% on 10-24, -0.32% on 10-23, +3.49% on 10-22, +1.68% on 10-21), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is a very short term bearish sign.
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas)/other indexes did a Wave A down type move at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, it looks like there'll be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow. I'll look to day trade the XOI ultra short via DUG. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% yesterday 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in each of the prior five sessions.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU might still be in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The 5 day XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator (-3.62% versus the XOI today/on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27, +3.46% on 10-24, +2.79% on 10-23, +0.47% on 10-22, +0.57% on 10-21) remains extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=xom.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:37 PM
1 Comments:
HUI has a very bullish triple bottom from 10-24 until 10-28. HUI's 10-24-08 cycle low at 150.27 APPEARS to be a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-08) cycle low. There's a bullish large inverse spike on 10-24-08's bullish white (close above the open) candle.
HUI and GDX/XAU appear to have finally bottomed, but, they must hit a 5% major buy signal before Trade the Cycles indicates that a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low has very likely occurred.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 4:04 PM
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