Trade the Cycles

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Short SPX ETF SH's Elliott Wave Count

Short SPX ETF SH's Elliott Wave Count Since the 53.98 Cycle High, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=sh. Since the 53.98 Cycle High SH has done an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern (a huge Wave 3 Downcycle occurred, with it's own inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern), with a Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle in effect since shortly before Thursday 9-23-10's close.

It looks like SH's Monthly Downcycle will probably bottom and SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Monthly Upcycle since 8-27-10 will probably peak shortly after SPX probably fills the 1157.43 upside gap, possibly early on Monday. SPX's big spike move since just before Thursday 9-23-10's close is a sign of important peaking action, and, volume should spike on Monday, if SPX peaks.

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posted by Joe Ferrazzano at 8:21 PM | 0 comments

Thursday, August 26, 2010

SH ETF is Probably in a Big Short Term AND Intermediate Term Wave 3 Upcycle


SH ETF (short SPX/S & P 500) is probably in a big Short Term AND Intermediate Term Wave 3 Upcycle, very bearish for SPX, see http://yfrog.com/jt67wp.

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posted by Joe Ferrazzano at 9:20 AM | 0 comments

Thursday, March 25, 2010

SPX Put in a Bearish Daily Candle Today 3-25-10


SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) put in a bearish daily candle today 3-25-10, dark (close below the open) with a spike, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 2-5-10 (looks like an important final Wave 5 move), and, possibly also the SPX (S & P 500,http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Major Upcycle since 3-6-09, appears to have peaked. SPX closed very near the session cycle low today, which suggests that more downside is likely early tomorrow.

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posted by Joe Ferrazzano at 1:10 PM | 3 comments

Tuesday, March 02, 2010

The Much Updated Trade the Cycles Google Site

The much updated Trade the Cycles Google Site, see http://sites.google.com/site/tradethecycles/.

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posted by Joe Ferrazzano at 10:42 AM | 3 comments

Saturday, February 06, 2010

Why SPX Will Probably Take Out The 1150.45 1-19-10 Cycle High

Why will SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) probably take out the 1150.45 1-19-10 cycle high and fill upside gaps at 1097.28/1103.32/1116.48/1150.23 (SPX probably put in a Monthly Cycle Low onFriday 2-5-10)?
First, a very bullish daily white candle (close above the open) with a very large inverse spike occurred yesterday 2-5-10, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Candles usually provide good insight into the nature of cycles (candles are a very useful tool). The more bullish (or bearish) a candle is the stronger an upcycle (or weaker a downcycle) tends to be.
Second, on 1-19-10, when the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) 1150.45 1-19-10 Intermediate Term Cycle High (for cycle that began on 11-2-09) and potential Major Cycle High (cycle since 3-6-09) occurred, the candle not only isn't bearish, but, is a relatively bullish white candle (close above the open) with only a tiny spike, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
However, an obvious major negative is the fact that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) put in a very bearish triple top in mid January, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. However, while volume spiked dramatically in the two sessions after 1-19-10, it was a much smaller volume spike than occurred in mid December 2009 at a Short Term Cycle Low, see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which suggests that SPX probably didn't put in a Major Cycle High on 1-19-10.
Another major positive is that virtually all gaps have been getting filled since March 2009 (3-6-09 SPX Major Cycle Low occurred) or shortly thereafter, which means that the likelihood of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upside gaps at 1097.28/1103.32/1116.48/1150.23 getting filled is probably high, therefore, the 1150.45 cycle high that occurred on 1-19-10 will probably be taken out.

Even if SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) did put in a Major Cycle High at 1150.45 on 1-19-10, it's likely to closely approach that cycle high in the near future, since important downcycles or upcycles usually begin relatively flat.
A Fibonacci 0.618 retrace of the -909.30 point decline from 1576.09 on 10-11-07 to 666.79 on 3-6-09 puts SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) at 1228.55 (Major Cycle High "target." I'm skeptical of it's validity in this case, partly because of massive Fed Credit/Quantitative Easing in recent months).
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

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posted by Joe Ferrazzano at 4:19 PM | 2 comments