Trade the Cycles

Monday, June 14, 2010

SPX Barely Took Out 6-3-10's 1105.67 Cycle High Today


SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) barely took out 6-3-10's 1105.67 cycle high today 6-14-10, but, the upcycle since 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low appears to be bearish funky counter trend action (it's a bearish looking candle pattern); it's probably Wave 4 (and Wave B) up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

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15 Comments:

  • 6-14-10: SPX Appears to be Headed for the 900 to 950 Area!

    SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upcycle since 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low appears to be bearish funky counter trend action (it's a bearish looking candle pattern); it's probably Wave 4 (and Wave B) up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    The inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern (also an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, read on) from 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high to 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low was probably only Wave A down! (and Waves 1, 2, and 3/down (1065.79) up (1173.57) down (1040.78), labeled on StockCharts chart) of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heading for 900 to 950 in the upcoming Wave C/Wave 5 downcycle (a preliminary target range, that might/probably will get revised some after I get the gaps, do Fibonacci analysis, and put more thought into it). I need to get the SPX downside gaps in that area.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:03 PM  

  • 6-14-10: SPX Appears to be Headed for 900ish

    It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heading for 900ish in the upcoming Wave C/Wave 5 downcycle (might get revised some after I do Fibonacci analysis and put more thought into it), because, there are downside gaps (below 1000) at 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and at 676.53. 905.84 is the likely final gap to get filled in this Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, partly because there's a large distance from 905.84 until the next downside gap at 855.16.

    SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, and, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10, all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. The current upcycle since the 1040.78 cycle low on 5-25-10 is probably Wave 4 and Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:03 PM  

  • Wave 3 Up (Wave 1 peaked at 1105.67, labeled in the StockCharts chart) of SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Likely Counter Trend Move Since 5-25-10's 1040.78 Cycle Low is Peaking (might have yesterday 6-16-10 at 1118.74), see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    A very sharp decline/Wave 4 down move is likely the next few sessions, followed by a very sharp Wave 5 up move for (at least) a few sessions (watch the 1157.43 upside gap/magnet), in which SPX's upcycle since 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low should peak.

    SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, and, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10, all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. The current upcycle since the 1040.78 cycle low on 5-25-10 is probably Wave 4 and Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high. SPX Appears to be Headed for 900ish, see http://goo.gl/fb/XdaE7.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:03 PM  

  • 6-18-10: Some Very Bearish Short Term and Intermediate Term SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/Market Indications, see the six month SPX Wall of Worry's (SPX vs VIX) gigantic collapse (the VIX implosion points to dramatic weakness in the not too distant future) the past month at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix (jives with SPX hitting 900ish in the next month or two, see http://goo.gl/fb/XdaE7), see the very bearish six month Walmart (WMT)/Exxon Mobil (XOM) Lead Indicators at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=xom,wmt,^djusfn, and, see the aggressive short trade (51,340 short SPX futures contracts, SPX made little upside progress since Tuesday) made by the savvy non contrarian SPX Commercial Traders (they also traded aggressively long, 38,024 long SPX futures contracts) in the five day period ending 6-15-10 at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm (scroll down about 2/3 of the way).

    It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably experience a very sharp decline (a Short Term Wave 4 Downcycle, of the likely counter trend move/Monthly Upcycle since 5-25-10's 1040.78 Cycle Low) early next week, possibly until Wednesday 6-23's Fed FOMC rate decision/statement at 2:15 pm, then, a spectacular Short Term Wave 5 Upcycle is likely for at least a few days (could just be a day or two, but possibly a very large move), when an important Monthly Cycle High should occur, watch the 1157.43 upside gap/magnet.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:03 PM  

  • 6-22-10: Wave 4 Down (since 6-21-10's 1131.23 Wave 3 cycle high, Wave 1 peaked at 1105.67, labeled in the StockCharts chart) of SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Likely Counter Trend Move Since 5-25-10's 1040.78 Cycle Low Might Bottom Early Tomorrow, shortly after filling the 1089.63 downside gap magnet (the next gap is at 1055.69), see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and, note the bearish red candle (close below the open) with a spike yesterday and today. Then, a very sharp Wave 5 up move is likely for (at least) a few sessions (watch the 1157.43 upside gap/magnet), in which SPX's upcycle since 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low should peak.

    SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, and, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10, all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. The current upcycle since the 1040.78 cycle low on 5-25-10 is probably Wave 4 and Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high. SPX Appears to be Headed for 900ish, see http://goo.gl/fb/XdaE7.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:19 PM  

  • Wave 4 Down (since 6-21-10's 1131.23 Wave 3 cycle high, Wave 1 peaked at 1105.67, labeled in the StockCharts chart) of SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Likely Counter Trend Move Since 5-25-10's 1040.78 Cycle Low Might Bottom Tomorrow 6-24-10 (1089.63 downside gap/magnet got filled today; the next gap/magnet is at 1055.69), see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and, note the somewhat bearish red candle (close below the open) with a spike again today, that also has a larger inverse spike. Very light SPX volume today, about 3.7 billion shares, suggests that SPX is probably still in a Wave 4 down move. Then, a very sharp Wave 5 up move is likely for (at least) a few sessions (watch the 1157.43 upside gap/magnet), in which SPX's upcycle since 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low should peak.

    SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, and, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10, all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. The current upcycle since the 1040.78 cycle low on 5-25-10 is probably Wave 4 and Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high. SPX Appears to be Headed for 900ish, see http://goo.gl/fb/XdaE7.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:18 PM  

  • 6-25-10: Wave 4 Down (since 6-21-10's 1131.23 Wave 3 cycle high, Wave 1 peaked at 1105.67, labeled in the StockCharts chart) of SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Likely Counter Trend Move Since 5-25-10's 1040.78 Cycle Low Might Bottom on Monday 6-28-10 (VIX -4.07% today vs SPX up +0.29%, a very bearish indication), watch the gap/magnet at 1055.69, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and, note the modestly bullish white candle (close above the open) with a modestly bearish spike today.

    Heavy SPX volume today, about 4.9+ billion shares vs 4.1 billion shares yesterday 6-24-10, suggests that SPX's Wave 4 down move might have bottomed today, or, might do so on Monday, because, the big money appears to have been buying in a meaningful way. Then, a very sharp Wave 5 up move is likely for about a week (watch the 1157.43 upside gap/magnet), in which SPX's upcycle since 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low should peak.

    SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, and, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10, all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. The current upcycle since the 1040.78 cycle low on 5-25-10 is probably Wave 4 and Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high. SPX Appears to be Headed for 900ish, see http://goo.gl/fb/XdaE7.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:15 PM  

  • SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Big Wave A Down of Wave C/Wave 5 Down (Since 6-21-10's 1131.23 Cycle High) Might Have Bottomed Today 7-1-10, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. 6-29-10's extreme conditions (volatility/-3.10% and volume/5.30+ billion shares), plus, additional downside since then (-1.01% on 6-30 and -0.32% on 7-1), point to an imminent cycle low. Note today 7-1-10's bearish red (close below the open) candle, but, with a bullish large inverse spike (tends to mark important cycle lows (semi important in this case probably)). Also, SPX volume was high today, at about 5.50+ billion shares.

    Negative/bearish breadth today suggests that the big SPX Wave A Downcycle since 6-21-10 might not have bottomed today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances. Also, VIX fell -4.86% today vs SPX down -0.32%, which is a very bearish indication for early tomorrow 7-2-10.

    SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10, and, Wave 4 up to 1131.23 on 6-21-10 (the upcycle from 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low until 6-21-10 failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, which is a very bearish sign), all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    It looks like (likely scenario) SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heading for 900ish in this Wave C/Wave 5 downcycle since 6-21-10 (might get revised some after I do Fibonacci analysis and put more thought into it), because, there are downside gaps (below 1000) at 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and at 676.53. 905.84 is the likely final gap to get filled in this Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, partly because there's a large distance from 905.84 until the next downside gap at 855.16.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:23 PM  

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    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:31 PM  

  • 7-6-10: SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Bounce Since 7-1-10 Looks Like Wave 4 & Wave B Up of the Big Wave C/Wave 5 Down Move Since 6-21-10's 1131.23 cycle high (NOTE that Wave A of Wave C/Wave 5 down bottomed on 7-1-10), see http://bit.ly/i0nsT (Note the bearish medium spike today). SPX's likely counter trend move since 7-1-10 appears to have peaked, but, will probably try to do Wave 5 up early tomorrow 7-7-10 (there's an up down up down pattern since early 7-1-10), see http://yhoo.it/cz77F4. The 5 day WMT/XOM Lead Indicators correctly pointed to strength since 7-1-10, see http://yhoo.it/aMhVGZ.

    Negative/bearish breadth on 7-1-10, 7-2-10, and today 7-6-10 suggests that the big SPX Wave C/Wave 5 Downcycle since 6-21-10 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances. Also, VIX fell -4.86% on 7-1-10 vs SPX down -0.32%, which correctly was a very bearish indication for early 7-2-10. VIX fell -8.34% on 7-2-10 vs SPX down -0.47%, which correctly was a very bearish indication for early Today 7-6-10. VIX fell -1.56% today vs SPX up +0.54%, which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow.

    SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10, and, Wave 4 up to 1131.23 on 6-21-10 (the upcycle from 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low until 6-21-10 failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, which is (correctly was already) a very bearish sign), all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    It looks like (likely scenario) SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heading for 900ish in this Wave C/Wave 5 downcycle since 6-21-10 (might get revised some after I do Fibonacci analysis and put more thought into it), because, there are downside gaps (below 1000) at 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and at 676.53. 905.84 is the likely final gap to get filled in this Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, partly because there's a large distance from 905.84 until the next downside gap at 855.16.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:15 PM  

  • 7-8-10: SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Bounce Since 7-1-10 (Obviously) Appears to be Peaking, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Whenever a huge spike move like this occurs, it's almost always important peaking action. SPX's likely counter trend move since 7-1-10 is doing Wave 5 up now as expected, and, will probably peak early tomorrow 7-9-10 (there's an up down up down up pattern since early 7-1-10), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,fs,fs,w14&c=. Watch the upside gap/magnet at 1074.57.

    The close very near the session cycle high today 7-8-10, and, below average volume, about 3.80+ billion shares, suggest that SPX probably didn't peak today. Volume should spike tomorrow (confirm the likely price peak/huge spike move cycle high) as SPX probably peaks. The 5 day WMT/XOM Lead Indicators correctly pointed to strength since 7-1-10, see http://yhoo.it/aMhVGZ.

    SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Bounce Since 7-1-10 Looks Like Wave 4 & Wave B Up of the Big Wave C/Wave 5 Down Move Since 6-21-10's 1131.23 cycle high (NOTE that Wave A of Wave C/Wave 5 down bottomed on 7-1-10), see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    Negative/bearish breadth on 7-1-10, 7-2-10, and 7-6-10 suggests that the big SPX Wave C/Wave 5 Downcycle since 6-21-10 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$nyad. Also, VIX fell -4.86% on 7-1-10 vs SPX down -0.32%, which correctly was a very bearish indication for early 7-2-10. VIX fell -8.34% on 7-2-10 vs SPX down -0.47%, which correctly was a very bearish indication for early 7-6-10. VIX fell -1.56% on 7-6-10 vs SPX up +0.54%, VIX fell -9.48% vs SPX up +3.13% yesterday 7-7-10, and, VIX fell -4.21% vs SPX up +0.94% today 7-8-10, which is a very bearish indication for early tomorrow 7-9-10. I'll be looking to trade SPX short via the SH ETF and the long Bond long via the TLT ETF.

    SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10, and, Wave 4 up to 1131.23 on 6-21-10 (the upcycle from 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low until 6-21-10 failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, which is (correctly was already) a very bearish sign), all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    It looks like (likely scenario) SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heading for 900ish in this Wave C/Wave 5 downcycle since 6-21-10 (might get revised some after I do Fibonacci analysis and put more thought into it), because, there are downside gaps (below 1000) at 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and at 676.53. 905.84 is the likely final gap to get filled in this Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, partly because there's a large distance from 905.84 until the next downside gap at 855.16.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 4:35 PM  

  • 7-8-10: SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Bounce Since 7-1-10 (Obviously) Appears to be Peaking, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Whenever a huge spike move like this occurs, it's almost always important peaking action. SPX's likely counter trend move since 7-1-10 is doing Wave 5 up now as expected, and, will probably peak early tomorrow 7-9-10 (there's an up down up down up pattern since early 7-1-10), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,fs,fs,w14&c=. Watch the upside gap/magnet at 1074.57.

    The close very near the session cycle high today 7-8-10, and, below average volume, about 3.80+ billion shares, suggest that SPX probably didn't peak today. Volume should spike tomorrow (confirm the likely price peak/huge spike move cycle high) as SPX probably peaks. The 5 day WMT/XOM Lead Indicators correctly pointed to strength since 7-1-10, see http://yhoo.it/aMhVGZ.

    SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Bounce Since 7-1-10 Looks Like Wave 4 & Wave B Up of the Big Wave C/Wave 5 Down Move Since 6-21-10's 1131.23 cycle high (NOTE that Wave A of Wave C/Wave 5 down bottomed on 7-1-10), see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    Negative/bearish breadth on 7-1-10, 7-2-10, and 7-6-10 suggests that the big SPX Wave C/Wave 5 Downcycle since 6-21-10 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$nyad. Also, VIX fell -4.86% on 7-1-10 vs SPX down -0.32%, which correctly was a very bearish indication for early 7-2-10. VIX fell -8.34% on 7-2-10 vs SPX down -0.47%, which correctly was a very bearish indication for early 7-6-10. VIX fell -1.56% on 7-6-10 vs SPX up +0.54%, VIX fell -9.48% vs SPX up +3.13% yesterday 7-7-10, and, VIX fell -4.21% vs SPX up +0.94% today 7-8-10, which is a very bearish indication for early tomorrow 7-9-10. I'll be looking to trade SPX short via the SH ETF and the long Bond long via the TLT ETF.

    SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10, and, Wave 4 up to 1131.23 on 6-21-10 (the upcycle from 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low until 6-21-10 failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, which is (correctly was already) a very bearish sign), all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 4:36 PM  

  • 7-9-10: SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Bounce Since 7-1-10 (Obviously) Appears to be Peaking, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Whenever a huge spike move like this occurs, it's almost always important peaking action. SPX's likely counter trend move since 7-1-10 is doing Wave 5 up now as expected, and, may peak early Monday 7-12-10 (there's an up down up down up pattern since early 7-1-10), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,fs,fs,w14&c=. Watch the upside gap/magnet at 1092.04.

    The close very near the session cycle high today 7-9-10, and, well below average volume, about 3.00+ billion shares, suggest that SPX probably didn't peak today. Volume should spike on Monday/soon (confirm the likely price peak/huge spike move cycle high) as SPX probably peaks. The 5 day WMT/XOM Lead Indicators correctly pointed to strength since 7-1-10, see http://yhoo.it/aMhVGZ.

    SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Bounce Since 7-1-10 Looks Like Wave 4 & Wave B Up of the Big Wave C/Wave 5 Down Move Since 6-21-10's 1131.23 cycle high (NOTE that Wave A of Wave C/Wave 5 down bottomed on 7-1-10), see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    Negative/bearish breadth on 7-1-10, 7-2-10, and 7-6-10 suggests that the big SPX Wave C/Wave 5 Downcycle since 6-21-10 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$nyad. Also, VIX fell -4.86% on 7-1-10 vs SPX down -0.32%, which correctly was a very bearish indication for early 7-2-10. VIX fell -8.34% on 7-2-10 vs SPX down -0.47%, which correctly was a very bearish indication for early 7-6-10. VIX fell -1.56% on 7-6-10 vs SPX up +0.54%, VIX fell -9.48% vs SPX up +3.13% on 7-7-10, VIX fell -4.21% vs SPX up +0.94% yesterday 7-8-10, and, VIX fell -2.84% vs SPX up +0.72% today 7-9-10, which is a very bearish indication for early Monday 7-12-10 (Really, once Wave 5 up peaks; cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are primary, indicators are secondary.). I'll be looking to trade SPX short via the SH ETF and the long Bond long via the TLT ETF.

    SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10, and, Wave 4 up to 1131.23 on 6-21-10 (the upcycle from 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low until 6-21-10 failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, which is (correctly was already) a very bearish sign), all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:26 PM  

  • 7-10-10: SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave Count For the Intermediate Term Downcycle Since 4-26-10's 1219.80 Cycle High:

    SPX has done (likely scenario) Wave 1 down to 1065.79, Wave 2 up to 1173.57, Wave 3 down to 1040.78 on 5-25-10, which clearly looks like the Wave A Down cycle low in both the Daily and Weekly View charts, and, Wave 4/Wave B up to 1131.23 on 6-21-10 (the upcycle from 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low until 6-21-10 failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, which is (correctly was already) a very bearish sign), all labeled on StockCharts chart, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, see the Daily and Weekly View charts at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    The current SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Upcycle since 7-1-10 is probably/appears to be the counter trend Wave B Up of Wave C/Wave 5 Down (since the 1131.23 cycle high on 6-21-10). The Elliott Wave count looks pretty clear, and, it jives with bearish COT (Commitments of Traders) data. The savvy non contrarian SPX Commercial Traders have engaged in much more short covering in recent weeks, than adding to long positions.

    It looks like (likely scenario) SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heading for 900ish in this Wave C/Wave 5 downcycle since 6-21-10 (might get revised some after I do Fibonacci analysis and put more thought into it), because, there are downside gaps (below 1000) at 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and at 676.53. 905.84 is the likely final gap to get filled in this Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, partly because there's a large distance from 905.84 until the next downside gap at 855.16.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 8:51 PM  

  • 7-22-10:

    The 10 Year Treasury Note Yield's Elliott Wave Count, refer to the five year candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^TNX&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,fs,fs,w14&c=.

    From mid 2007 until very late 2008 the 10 Year Treasury Note's yield did a down up down Wave A Elliott Wave Major Downcycle (also did an Elliott Wave down up down up down pattern), that's also probably Waves 1 down, 2 up, and 3 down, of the Cyclical Bear Market (in yield) since mid 2007.

    From very late 2008 to June 2009/April 2010's bearish double top the 10 Year Treasury Note's yield did an Elliott Wave up down up down up Major Upcycle, that's probably/appears to be the counter trend Wave B and Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market (in yield) since mid 2007, which means that the 10 Year Treasury Note's yield is now probably in a huge Wave C and Wave 5 Downcycle since April 2010, which is very important, because, it's a very good SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/market lead indicator, see the six month 10 Year Treasury yield vs SPX Lead Indicator at http://yhoo.it/bYZcbZ.

    This means that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/market is probably heading much lower the next year or so.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:49 PM  

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