Trade the Cycles

Thursday, May 06, 2010

SPX's Major Upcycle Since 3-6-09 Probably Peaked at 1219.80 on 4-26-10


SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Major Upcycle Since 3-6-09 Probably Peaked at 1219.80 on 4-26-10, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. VIX rose an eye popping +31.67% today, which is a very bearish unusually large rise in fear that points to SPX/market weakness early tomorrow.

SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) huge intra day decline (range was 1167.57 to 1065.79), a crash/decline of -8.72%, is a sign that SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Major Upcycle Since 3-6-09 (666.79 Major Cycle Low) Probably Peaked at 1219.80 on 4-26-10, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

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posted by Joe Ferrazzano at 1:18 PM

14 Comments:

  • After yesterday 5-6-10's SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/market crash a huge snap back rebound peaked shortly before yesterday's close, and, a test of yesterday's cycle low is likely soon, with a Wave A down type move bottoming very early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=, followed by a counter trend Wave B type move that peaked early today, and, a final Wave C downcycle type move appears to be in effect now, that may bottom today or Monday.

    This Elliott Wave ABC down up down move since very late yesterday 5-6-10 is also following an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:11 AM  

  • The Bearish Unusually Large +24.85% Rise in VIX/Fear Today 5-7-10 Points to Early SPX/Market Weakness on Monday, which jives with the Elliott Wave count discussed in an earlier post today, see http://twitteresque.blogspot.com/2010/05/spx-crash-elliott-wave-count.html.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:23 PM  

  • Fed Securities Lending/Credit was a Very Light/Bearish $3.162 Billion Today 5-7-10/$3.130 Billion on 5-6-10 (Recent weeks average is about $6 Billion), see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/seclend/sec_lendop.cfm.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:12 PM  

  • Massive Commodity Deflation Began in Mid 2008, see CRB Weekly View chart two at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$crb. Stocks and real estate began to massively deflate in mid 2007 (Russell 2000/RUT) to late 2007 (SPX peaked on 10-11-07 at 1576.09).

    The powers that be worldwide are trying to inflate the world out of a massive deflationary economic bust/downcycle. The problem now is massive DEFLATION, though there will occasionally be mini inflationary booms within the massive bust, such as from 3-6-09 to 4-26-10 for SPX (SPX appears to have peaked/Major Cycle High at 1219.80). Two of the best investments and trading vehicles are gold (inflation protection, probably heading much lower the next year or two; I love gold at the RIGHT price) and US T Bonds (deflation protection).

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:12 PM  

  • 5-10-10: SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Probably Still Needs to Do Wave 5 Up of the Post Crash Bounce, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=. Since late Thursday 5-6-10's crash SPX has done an up down up down pattern, with a huge Wave 5 Upcycle probably still to come. Watch upside gaps at 1202.26 and 1212.05.

    VIX is down a humongous -26.30% right now, which is an unusually large rise in complacency that jives with SPX doing a huge Wave 5 up move in the very near future.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 12:26 PM  

  • Fed Securities Lending/Credit was a Very Light/Bearish $3.035 Billion Today 5-10-10/$3.162 Billion on 5-7-10/$3.130 Billion on 5-6-10 (Recent weeks average is/was about $6 Billion), see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/seclend/sec_lendop.cfm.

    Bernanke seems to be content with letting a substantial downcycle continue, with the current huge spike move probably being a counter trend Wave B type move.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 12:29 PM  

  • SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Probably Still Needs To Do Wave 5 Up of Wave 5 Up of the Post Crash Bounce since late 5-6-10, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=. Wave 5 Up began late yesterday 5-10-10, and, has done an up down up down pattern, with Wave 5 Up or Wave 4 Down of Wave 5 Up probably in effect right now.

    The fact that volume was very light today (about 4.700 to 4.800 Billion shares), relative to the past few sessions, is a clear sign that SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Post Crash Bounce since late 5-6-10 probably didn't peak yet, because, volume spikes almost always coincide closely with/confirm price spikes/inverse spikes (cycle highs/lows).

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:10 PM  

  • 5-12-10: SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is in Wave 5 Up of the Post Crash Bounce Since Late 5-6-10, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=. Wave 5 Up began late on 5-10-10.

    In the Daily View candlestick chart one can see the Wave 1 and Wave 3 cycle high red candles that occurred on 5-7-10 and 5-10-10, and, they have a bearish spike, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=spx. Watch upside gaps at 1202.26 and 1212.05. Light SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume today, about 4.200+ billion shares, indicates that SPX probably didn't peak today, because, volume spikes almost always coincide closely with/confirm price spikes/inverse spikes (cycle highs/lows).

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:23 PM  

  • 5-14-10: SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Will Probably Try to Fill Today's Upside Gap/Magnet at 1157.43 on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=. Also, keep in mind SPX's downside gap/magnet at 1110.88.

    VIX rose what's normally, except in this extreme volatility environment, an unusually large bearish +8.32% rise in fear today 5-14-10. However, in this extreme volatility/VIX volatility environment (VIX has been unusually volatile also) it's probably a bullish very sharp rise in fear, that points to likely early strength on Monday.

    I'll be looking to enter a modest-sized 3X Short Finance ETF (FAZ) trade on Monday, and, I'll also be looking to day trade the Long Bond ETF TLT for an upside gap fill at 95.58.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:40 PM  

  • SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Did An Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 Pattern Since 5-13-10, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=. From Thursday 5-13-10's cycle high to today 5-17-10's cycle low SPX did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern.

    SPX put in a bullish white daily candle (close above the open) with a bullish/large inverse spike today 5-17-10, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Watch the 1157.43 upside gap from Friday 5-14-10's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=. Also, keep in mind the 1110.88 downside gap.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:16 PM  

  • SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Also Did An Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 Pattern Today 5-17-10 (down up down up down, did one from 5-13's cycle high to today's cycle low), from the session cycle high to the cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:18 PM  

  • SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Failure to Fill the 1157.43 Upside Gap Today 5-18-10 is a Bearish Sign, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=, and, jives with the near term Elliott Wave count discussed at http://goo.gl/fb/XXQ8n. Watch the 1110.88 downside gap tomorrow, and, keep in mind the 1056.74 downside gap.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 4:23 PM  

  • Market Breadth Closed Very Negative/Bearish Today 5-19-10, see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances, which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow. I made +0.28 in a FAZ (3X Short Financials ETF) trade today. I'll look to trade it again early tomorrow.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:18 PM  

  • SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Appears To Have Bottomed Today 5-21-10 (likely Wave 1 Monthly Cycle Low), and, appears to have (barely) broken the downtrend on the five day chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=.

    SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) put in a bullish white (close above the open) daily candle today, with a medium inverse spike, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note that SPX bounced very soon after the 1056.74 downside gap got filled very early today. Often, important cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gap filling action (and Elliott Wave patterns) has been completed.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:48 PM  

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