Trade the Cycles

Friday, March 05, 2010

SPX's (S & P 500) Monthly Upcycle Since 2-5-10 is Probably Peaking

SPX's (S & P 500) Monthly Upcycle since 2-5-10 is probably peaking; SPX is probably in a Short Term Wave 5 Upcycle since 2-25-10, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

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posted by Joe Ferrazzano at 2:57 PM

39 Comments:

  • Trading Roadmap: WATCH SPX's 1150.23 upside gap/magnet; 5 day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3


    Trading Roadmap: WATCH SPX's 1122.97 downside gap/magnet from 3-5's open; 5 day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:02 PM  

  • 1115.71/1104.49 are more SPX (S & P 500) downside gaps.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:03 PM  

  • VIX -6.94% on 3-5, Williams %R closed at -1.13 on 3-5; very cautionary indications for early Monday.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:36 PM  

  • SPX downtrend since just after today 3-8's open, 5 day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:16 PM  

  • SPX's Monthly Upcycle since 2-5-10 might have peaked just after the open today 3-8-10. It was a bearish flat session with a negative bias.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:19 PM  

  • SPX volume was 3.220/3.453/3.352/3.365 billion 4 days ending 3-8 vs 3.806 60 day EMA, bearish indication, big $ not chasing strength.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 4:15 PM  

  • Fed's Daily Securities Lending Mon 03/08/10 was a very modest $3.781 billion, which is a bearish indication.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 4:26 PM  

  • Fed Credit fell a significant -$6.710 Billion in 5 day period ending 3-3-10; see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds, which is a bearish indication.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 4:26 PM  

  • Fed's Daily Securities Lending today/on 03/09/10 jumped to $6.457 billion from a very modest $3.781 billion on 3-8.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:26 PM  

  • SPX's volume spiked dramatically today to 4.505 billion shares from only 3.220/3.453/3.352/3.365 billion the prior 4 days, which points to important peaking action.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:44 PM  

  • SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume spiked dramatically to 4.674/4.505 billion shares the past 2 days, from only 3.220/3.453/3.352/3.365 billion shares the prior 4 days, which points to important peaking action.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:58 PM  

  • SPX might put in a very bearish quadruple top SOON with 1150.45 on 1-19-10, 1150.41 on 1-14-10 & 1149.74 on 1-11-10 see http://bit.ly/i0nsT

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:12 PM  

  • 1150.23 gap filled vs 1150.24 SPX close!, per StockCharts, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:08 PM  

  • Now that SPX filled 1150.23 upside gap, a Monthly Cycle High's probably imminent, if it didn't occur today.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:14 PM  

  • SPX's Williams' %R closed at the overbought extreme today, at 0. Fast Stochastics at overbought extreme = 100. RSI at 69.99.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:24 PM  

  • SPX volume spiked dramatically to 4.070/4.674/4.505 billion sh past 3 days, from only 3.220/3.453/3.352/3.365 bln prior 4; points to peaking action.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:54 PM  

  • Fed Credit fell very modest -$200 Million in 5 days ending 3-10-10, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds, a modestly bearish indication.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:10 PM  

  • SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) very bearish collapse since mid session 3-11, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:13 PM  

  • SPX (S & P 500) peaked (very short term at least, potential Monthly Cycle High) very early today 3-12, very soon (no coincidence) after filling the 1150.23 upside gap at yesterday's close.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:16 PM  

  • SPX volume spiked dramatically to 4.276/4.070/4.674/4.505 billion sh past 4 days, from only 3.220/3.453/3.352/3.365 bln prior 4; points to important peaking action.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:21 PM  

  • Today 3-12's Fed Credit was an (recent) average $5.431 Billion.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:43 PM  

  • Market breadth closed mixed today 3-12, a bearish indication; see http://bit.ly/lPIyW.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:06 PM  

  • 5 day DJUSFN/WMT/XOM Lead Indicators are/closed very bullish/very bearish/bearish, see http://bit.ly/90I4Mz

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:07 PM  

  • Three month WMT/XOM Lead Indicators are flashing caution; see http://bit.ly/df5I2d

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:09 PM  

  • SPX put in a bullish daily candle today 3-15-10, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:12 PM  

  • Intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) closed very bearish today 3-15: see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:13 PM  

  • Market breadth closed negative today 3-15, a bearish indication; see http://bit.ly/lPIyW

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:15 PM  

  • SPX's (S & P 500) volume today 3-15-10 was a bearish (big $ didn't chase the rebound since early in the session) below average 3.607 billion shares vs the 60 day EMA at 3.871 billion shares, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:45 PM  

  • VIX up +2.39% today 3-15 vs SPX up +0.05% is a bullish indication for early tomorrow, a +2.44% rise in fear.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:40 PM  

  • SPX (S & P 500) volume was near the average today 3-16-10, at 3.819 billion shares vs 60 Day EMA at 3.870 bln, which indicates that SPX probably didn't peak today 3-16-10.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:55 PM  

  • SPX's Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) experienced a very bearish collapse since Thursday 3-11; http://bit.ly/vryF4

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:56 PM  

  • No coincidence, SPX bounced/bottomed today, very soon after filling 1150.51 downside gap; see http://bit.ly/12SpXH

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:18 PM  

  • SPX's (S & P 500) very bullish white candles with very large inverse spikes on 2-5-10 and 2-25-10 correctly pointed to likely substantial strength,see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:24 PM  

  • Trading Roadmap: WATCH SPX's 1159.46 downside gap/magnet from 3-17's open; 5 day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:07 PM  

  • SPX volume was only modestly above average today 3-17, 4.120 bln sh vs 60 day EMA at 3.879, means SPX probably didn't peak today.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:09 PM  

  • SPX (S & P 500) has a clear Elliott Wave up down up down up pattern since March 6, 2009, see second Weekly View chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:10 PM  

  • SPX's volume was light today, at 3.579 billion shares vs 60 day EMA at 3.869 bln sh, which suggests that the Monthly Upcycle since 2-5-10 probably didn't peak yet, because, normally, a dramatic volume spike will confirm/coincide closely with a price spike/cycle high.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:55 PM  

  • The SPX (S & P 500) Major Upcycle/Cyclical Bull Market since 3-6-09 appears to be peaking, in the final Wave 5 Intermediate Term Upcycle now, see Trade the Cycles Charts.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:42 PM  

  • Today 3-19-10's Fed Credit was well below the recent average (about $5.300 Billion average), at $3.862 Billion, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/seclend/sec_lendop.cfm, coinciding (no coincidence, Fed Credit/liquidity fuels the large index-related program traders) with significant SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=spx) weakness today.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 4:15 PM  

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