Trade the Cycles

Monday, June 07, 2010

SPX is Probably in Wave 5 Down of the Intermediate Term Downcycle


SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is Probably in Wave 5 Down, since 6-3-10's 1105.67 cycle high, of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high (down up down up down pattern), see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Today's below average SPX volume, at 4.624 billion shares vs the 60 day EMA at 4.779 billion shares, indicates that more downside is likely short term, because, volume didn't spike dramatically today.

SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) appears to be in Wave 5 down of the Wave A Downcycle since 6-3-10 (down up down up down pattern), see the five day intra day action candlestick chart http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=. So, the Wave A Downcycle since 6-3-10 may bottom tomorrow.

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6 Comments:

  • SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wave A of Wave 5 Down, since 6-3-10's 1105.67 cycle high, Appears to Have Bottomed Today (Intermediate Term Downcycle since 4-26-10's 1219.80 cycle high, down up down up down pattern), see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bullish white candle with a small inverse spike today 6-8-10.

    Today's above average SPX volume, at about 5.100 billion shares vs the 60 day EMA at about 4.781 billion shares, indicates that today 6-8-10's cycle low probably wasn't an Intermediate Term Cycle Low, because, volume didn't spike dramatically today.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:21 PM  

  • 6-9-10: SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave Count Since 6-8-10's 1042.17 Cycle Low, refer to five day intra day candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=. Since 6-8-10's 1042.17 cycle low SPX has done an up down up down pattern, with today's sharp decline probably being a Wave 4 down type of move.

    So, SPX will probably experience a sharp Wave 5 up type of move tomorrow/the next few days (target 1105ish), and, watch the 1102.83 upside gap from 6-4-10's open the next few days. I'll probably be looking to trade SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) long via SPY the next few days. The five day WMT/XOM Lead Indicators are/closed extremely/very bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=xom,wmt,^djusfn.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:04 PM  

  • Weekly Fed Credit Fell a Bearish/Significant -$6.168 Billion in the Five Day Period Ending 6-9-10, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, after falling a Bearish/Significant -$3.999 Billion in the Five Day Period ending 6-2-10 and a Bearish/Substantial -$15.319 Billion in the Five Day Period ending 5-26-10.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:45 PM  

  • From the Twitteresque Blog 6-11-10: SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume is relatively light so far today 6-11-10 (http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX), so, the upcycle since 6-8-10's 1042.17 cycle low (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=) probably didn't peak yet. However, trading long now, partly due to the BP oil spill situation, is risky. One should keep a close eye on BP now.

    Also, the five day SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) is very bearish (Wall of Worry collapsed, VIX fell much more than SPX rose in recent days), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.

    Trading Roadmap: WATCH SPX's 1102.83 upside gap/magnet, 5 day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:07 AM  

  • 6-13-10: Take Note Gold Bugs - The Six Month NEM Lead Indicator is Very Bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,fs,w14&c=nem. The NEM Lead Indicator has worked well for the past six months, and, in my extensive experience, it has worked well for years.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:57 PM  

  • Today's SPX Cycle High Was Probably a Wave 3 Cycle High

    SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was very light today 6-14-10 (see http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX), so, the upcycle since 6-8-10's 1042.17 cycle low (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=) probably didn't peak yet (today's SPX cycle high was probably a Wave 3 cycle high, note the bearish dark/red candle with a spike today at http://bit.ly/i0nsT; the cycle high/bearish dark/red candle on 6-9 with a large spike was probably a Wave 1 cycle high), since dramatic volume spikes usually coincide closely with/confirm important price spikes/inverse spikes (cycle highs/lows). Trading long now, partly due to the BP oil spill situation, is risky. One should keep a close eye on BP now.

    The five day SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) is very bearish (Wall of Worry collapsed, VIX fell much more than SPX rose in recent days), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:27 PM  

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