Trade the Cycles

9 Comments:

• Now is NOT the time to buy gold AS A LONG TERM INVESTOR. Gold has done a great job of hedgng against inflationary pressures for a very long time, but, it should fall dramatically due to worldwide massive deflationary pressures, and, simply because it's rapidly approaching the start of a Major Downcycle.
  
  Gold appears to be in a final Wave 5 Intermediate Term Upcycle, of the Major Upcycle/Cyclical Bull Market since the $681 Major Cycle Low in October 2008, see Weekly View chart two at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=$gold.

  By  Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:25 AM  

• 5-26-10: SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Put In a Bearish Dark/Red Candle (close below the open) with a large spike today, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. I'm looking for SPX to probably hit 1045 to 1050 early tomorrow, versus the 1040.78 cycle low yesterday 5-25, then, I'll look to day trade the SPX ETF SPY long (possibly a gap fill trade, if SPX gaps down at the open and plunges to 1045-1050).

  By  Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:49 PM  

• Weekly Fed Credit Fell a Substantial/Bearish -$15.319 Billion in the Five Day Period Ending 5-26-10 (rose a massive/very bullish +$28.883 Billion in Five Day Period Ending 5-19-10), see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/.
  
  I'll look to day trade SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) or some other index/sector (ultra short for me) short after SPX probably fills the upside gap at 1115.05 tomorrow 5-28-10. Then, once 1115.05 probably gets filled, look for SPX to probably fill today's downside gap at 1067.95 in the next few sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=fs,w14&c=. Today's huge spike move (SPX up +3.29%) is a sign that SPX will probably put in an important (Short Term) Cycle High tomorrow.

  By  Joe Ferrazzano, at 4:15 PM  

• Today's SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Weakness Looks Like Wave 4 Down (up down up down pattern since 5-25-10, on the daily candlestick chart) of the Large Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle since 5-25-10 (likely Monthly Cycle Low at 1040.78 on 5-25-10), see Daily View chart one at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
  
  Trading Roadmap: WATCH SPX's 1103.06 upside gap/magnet from today's open (1115.05 is the next gap/magnet after that), see 5 day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.

  By  Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:33 PM  

• 6-1-10: SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Weakness Since 5-27-10 is Probably a Short Term Wave 2 Downcycle, of the Monthly Upcycle since 5-25-10 (up down pattern since 5-25-10, on the daily candlestick chart; likely Monthly Cycle Low at 1040.78 on 5-25-10), see Daily View chart one at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
  
  An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Wave 2 Cycle Low will probably occur shortly after the 1067.95 downside gap/magnet gets filled. I'll be looking to trade long via SPY after the 1067.95 downside gap/magnet probably gets filled.
  
  Trading Roadmap: WATCH SPX's 1067.95 downside gap/magnet, then, watch the 1103.06 upside gap/magnet, and, 1115.05 is the next gap/magnet after that, see 5 day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.

  By  Joe Ferrazzano, at 4:28 PM  

• 6-3-10: SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle May Peak Tomorrow, Dramatically Rolling Over versus the 1103.52 cycle high, of the Monthly Upcycle since 5-25-10 (likely Monthly Cycle Low at 1040.78 on 5-25-10), see Daily View chart one at http://bit.ly/i0nsT. There's a significant chance that the ENTIRE upcycle since 5-25-10 will peak tomorrow 6-4 (meaning that it's not just a Wave 1 move), when the important Monthly Employment Report is released before the open. I'll have to see what tomorrow's action, daily candle, volume, VIX, breadth, lead indicators, etc look like.
  
  An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Wave 1 Cycle High will probably occur shortly after the 1115.05 upside gap/magnet gets filled. I'll be looking to trade short via the SH ETF after the 1115.05 upside gap/magnet probably gets filled (1157.43 is the next upside gap/magnet), see 5 day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.

  By  Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:50 PM  

• Weekly Fed Credit Fell a Significant/Bearish -$3.999 Billion in the five day period ending 6-2-10, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, after falling a substantial/bearish -$15.319 Billion in the five day period ending 5-26-10.

  By  Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:50 PM  

• SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle Peaked at 1105.67 on Thursday 6-3-10, Dramatically Rolling Over versus the 1103.52 cycle high, of the Monthly Upcycle since 5-25-10 (potential/"likely" Monthly Cycle Low at 1040.78 on 5-25-10; less likely now, due to the continuing BP oil spill and new Europe debt/fiscal/economic fears), see Daily View chart one at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
  
  Note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern from 5-25-10's 1040.78 cycle low to 6-3-10's 1105.67 cycle high, with the first bearish red candle with a large spike being the first up down of that Elliott Wave 12345 pattern. Friday 6-4-10's very sharp decline is very likely a Wave A down type of move, of a Short Term Wave 2 Downcycle (if SPX bottomed at 1040.78 on 5-25-10) OR a Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle (of the Monthly Downcycle since the 4-26-10 1219.80 cycle high).

  By  Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:29 PM  

• if the dow tops today,it would be equal to september of 1937.up until now 2010 looks like 1937.if it topped today, 59%fall is next.

  By  antnyajp, at 1:42 PM  

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