Trade the Cycles

Saturday, January 31, 2009

.......Gold Hit a 5% Major Buy Signal This Week!

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal this week, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that
gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.


Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008.

Gold tends to lag GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM, so, it didn't peak on 1-26-09, when GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM did (Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high). Also, gold didn't hit a 5% major buy signal until this week, versus GDX/HUI/XAU doing so on 12-10-08, see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders expect gold to soon peak/put in a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high, lagging GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM, which did so on 1-26-09 (see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui), since they traded aggressively short in the five day period ending 1-27-09, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Labels: , , , , , , ,

Friday, January 30, 2009

SPX's (S & P 500) Short Term Countertrend Wave B Upcycle Might Not Have Peaked Yet

SPX's (S & P 500) Short Term Countertrend Wave B Upcycle (began last week) might not have peaked yet (Wave A Monthly Downcycle since 1-6-09), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) has done an up down up down pattern on the daily chart since last week, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, so, 1-28's cycle high normally would be a Wave 3 cycle high (of the Short Term Countertrend Wave B Upcycle), not a third/final Wave 5 cycle high. Also, note that 1-28's candle isn't bearish, there's a small spike on a bullish white (close above the open) candle. 1-28's candle would be unusual/atypical for an important cycle high.

Another bullish factor is that the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish (+0.73% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-30, +1.52% on 1-29) the past two days.

Also, Walmart (WMT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) is extremely oversold now, with RSI at 16.51 and the Stochastics below 10, which is unusually oversold. Rarely will a stock's (index, commodity, etc) RSI fall below 20 or Stochastics fall below 10.

Lastly, the SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX rose +5.18% today 1-30 and +7.49% yesterday 1-29, so, substantial strength is likely to begin/occur at some point on Monday, due to the substantial rise in fear/the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry.

So, there's a definite chance that SPX (S & P 500) might show surprising strength next week, and, it might do a very large Wave 5 spike move and try to fill it's upside gap at 934.70. Wave 3 (might be Wave 5) peaked on 1-28 shortly after filling the upside gap at 871.74. Often important or even semi important cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gap filling action has been completed.

On Walmart's (WMT) intraday chart it looks like might have bottomed late today 1-30, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

On Monday I might day trade SPX (S & P 500) ultra long via SSO, or, I might day trade ultra long via UWM (RUT), QLD (NDX), or DIG (Oil and Gas). I might also day trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (+5.18%) reveals a sharp rise in fear today, since SPX fell a sharp -2.28%, which is a sharp +2.90% rise in fear/+2.90% rise in the SPX wall of worry, that points to substantial SPX strength on Monday, after potential early weakness.

SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 874.09 and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness/short term Wave A downcycle for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.

There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low in the next few weeks (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).

Today 1-30-09's GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM cycle high was probably the countertrend Wave B up of the big short term Wave A downcycle since 1-26-09 (Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 1-26-09), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM didn't make a serious attempt at filling 1-28's very large very bearish breakaway upside gap at 41.71, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, which jives with GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM probably entering entering Wave C today, of the big short term Wave A downcycle since 1-26-09.

GDX/HUI/XAU (and NEM) peaked right after the open today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, then, they quickly did an intraday Wave A down type crash, followed by an intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle, note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, and, they very likely ended today 1-30's session in a Wave C down type move.

From the mid/late November 2008 (late October 2008 for GDX/HUI/XAU) likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 21.10 to the 1-26-09 cycle high at 45.45 NEM did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem), peaking in rollover mode, and, NEM created a very large very bearish breakaway type upside gap at 41.71 at 1-28's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

The reliable gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.04% versus the XAU today/on 1-30, which is a very short term bearish indication, and, it was super bearish prior to today, at -1.97% on 1-29, -5.87% on 1-28, -2.09% on 1-27, -1.35% on 1-26, -0.32% on 1-23.

Gold's near/might have hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, and, it might soon clearly do so. Gold appears to have broken out on Friday 1-23-09, and, followed through to the upside on 1-26 and today 1-30, which is a good sign. Gold tends to lag GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM (today's another example), so, it didn't peak on 1-26-09, when GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM did.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the potential/likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders expect gold to soon peak/put in a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high, lagging GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM, which did so on 1-26-09 (see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui), since they traded aggressively short in the five day period ending 1-27-09, see the third/last data at
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.92% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-30, it was +0.80% on 1-29, but, is extremely bearish recently, at -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Thursday, January 29, 2009

SPX's (S & P 500) Short Term Countertrend Wave B Upcycle Probably Peaked Yesterday 1-28-09

SPX's (S & P 500) Short Term Countertrend Wave B Upcycle probably peaked yesterday 1-28-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Since last week's short term wave A cycle low SPX (S & P 500) did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern on the daily chart.

Also, SPX (S & P 500) created a bearish breakaway upside gap at 874.09 at today 1-29's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, didn't make a serious attempt at filling it.

Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) was in Wave 5 down of an intraday Elliott Wave inverse 12345 down up down up down downcycle at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, early SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness is likely tomorrow 1-30.

Also, WMT has a bearish medium spike on today 1-29's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, and, appears to have entered Wave 5 down of the big short term Wave 5 downcycle since mid January (Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008).

The super bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +1.52% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 1-29, -3.48% on 1-28, -0.70% on 1-27, -0.04% on 1-26, -1.60% on 1-23, +0.97% on 1-22, -7.16% on 1-21, points to a great shorting opportunity (probably after tomorrow's countertrend Wave B type rebound) in the near future.

The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (+7.49%) reveals a very sharp rise in fear today, since SPX fell a very sharp -3.31%, which is a very sharp +4.18% rise in fear/+4.18% rise in the SPX wall of worry, that points to substantial SPX strength on Friday, after likely early weakness.

SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 874.09 and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness/short term Wave A downcycle for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.

There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low in the next few weeks (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).

A story today is NEM's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) massive volume of 42.20+ million shares, which is by far it's largest daily volume of the past five years.

Today 1-29-09's GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM cycle low was probably Wave A down of the big short term Wave A downcycle since 1-26-09 (Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 1-26-09), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

The reliable gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.97% versus the XAU today/on 1-29.

From the mid/late November 2008 (late October 2008 for GDX/HUI/XAU) likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 21.10 to the 1-26-09 cycle high at 45.45 NEM did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle, peaking in rollover mode, and, NEM created a very large very bearish breakaway type upside gap at 41.71 at yesterday 1-28's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

Gold didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, but, it might soon do so. Gold appears to have broken out on Friday 1-23-09, and, followed through to the upside on 1-26, which is a good sign. Gold tends to lag GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM, so, it might not have peaked on 1-26-09.

NEM has downside gaps at 40.90 (filled) and 37.83 (filled). GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.

With the gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator at a very bearish -1.97% versus the XAU today/on 1-29, and, super bearish recently (-5.87% on 1-28, -2.09% on 1-27, -1.35% on 1-26, -0.32% on 1-23), I'll look to day trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short tomorrow, if my broker has some stock available.

SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF) looks like it'll try to fill yesterday 1-28's upside gap at 58.48 tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=srs&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, SRS will probably be my primary trade early tomorrow, along with shorting GDX, which might happen later in the session.

Tomorrow I'll also possibly look to (early market weakness likely, that will probably be brief) day trade ultra short via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF), SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or TWM (UltraShort RUT ETF), QID (UltraShort NDX ETF), SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials ETF), etc.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

I made nearly 11 cents per share = nearly $110 per 1000 shares traded, in a 5+ minute DUG (UltraShort Oil and gas ETF) trade today (25,000 shares x 0.11 = $2750).

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.80% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-29, but, is extremely bearish recently, at -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

GDX/HUI/XAU and Reliable Gold/Silver Sector Lead Indicator NEM Appear to Have Entered a Wave 2 Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle on 1-26-09

GDX/HUI/XAU and reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM appear to have entered a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle on Monday 1-26-09, see GDX (Gold Miners Index ETF) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, and, see NEM at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

It's much more obvious in reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, that a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high very likely occurred on Monday 1-26-09 at 45.45.

From the mid/late November 2008 (late October 2008 for GDX/HUI/XAU) likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 21.10 to the 1-26-09 cycle high at 45.45 NEM did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle in rollover mode, and, NEM created a very large very bearish breakaway type upside gap at 41.71 at today 1-28's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. The fact that NEM didn't even try to fill today's upside gap at 41.71 is obviously a bearish sign.

Gold didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, but, it might soon do so. Gold appears to have broken out on Friday 1-23-09, and, followed through to the upside on 1-26, which is a good sign. Gold tends to lag GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM, so, it might not have peaked on 1-26-09.

NEM has downside gaps at 40.90 (filled today/yesterday after hours) and 37.83. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.

The reliable gold/silver sector Newmont Mining (NEM) Lead Indicator was super bearish today 1-28-09 and recently, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The NEM Lead Indicator was -5.87% versus the XAU today/on 1-28, -2.09% on 1-27, -1.35% on 1-26, -0.32% on 1-23.

Until proven otherwise SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) remains in a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle of the Wave A Monthly Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

The super bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at -3.48% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 1-28, -0.70% on 1-27, -0.04% on 1-26, -1.60% on 1-23, +0.97% on 1-22, -7.16% on 1-21, points to a great shorting opportunity in the near future.

The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (-6.13%) reveals a sharp rise in complacency today, since SPX rose a very sharp +3.36%, which is a sharp +2.77% rise in complacency/-2.77% decline in the SPX wall of worry, that points to severe SPX weakness early on Thursday.

SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 871.79 (filled today 1-28) and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

Looking at WMT's daily chart, it probably/very likely needs to do Wave 5 down of the Wave 5 downcycle since mid January (Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness/short term Wave A downcycle for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.

There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low in the next few weeks (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).

Tomorrow I'll look to day trade ultra short via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, XOM Lead Indicator was -2.15% versus the XOI today/on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23), SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or TWM (UltraShort RUT ETF), QID (UltraShort NDX ETF), SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF), SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials ETF), etc.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

I made nearly 9.50 cents per share = nearly $95 per 1000 shares traded, in a 48 second (yes) DUG (UltraShort Oil and gas ETF) trade early today (25,000 shares x 0.095 = $2375).

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.15% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, it was -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21, +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

.....A Cautionary Note Regarding GDX/HUI/XAU

If reliable gold/silver sector Newmont Mining (NEM, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) doesn't soon (today or tomorrow) fill today's very large upside gap at 41.71, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, it'll be a very large very bearish breakaway type gap, and, GDX/HUI/XAU's big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09, and, their Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle since late October 2008, will have probably peaked on Monday 1-26-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

GDX/HUI/XAU have done an up down up down pattern on the daily chart since 1-15-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, so, normally 1-26-09's cycle high would be a Wave 3 cycle high, not a final Wave 5 cycle high.

The reliable gold/silver sector Newmont Mining (NEM) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish today 1-28-09 and recently, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, so, if there's going to be the third huge Wave 5 spike move that normally would occur, the NEM Lead Indicator should turn very bullish today or tomorrow, and, NEM needs to fill today's upside gap at 41.71 quickly/today or tomorrow.

Between reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's very large very bearish breakaway upside gap at 41.71 from today 1-28's open, and, the extremely bearish NEM Lead Indicator today 1-28-09, one has to be cautious regarding the gold/silver sector right now. A positive note is that big money (some is short covering obviously) is coming into NEM, with 6.18 million shares traded at 11:51 am. Stay tuned.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

I made nearly 9.50 cents per share = nearly $95 per 1000 shares traded, in a 48 second (yes) DUG (UltraShort Oil and gas ETF) trade early today (25,000 shares x 0.095 = $2375).

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

SPX's (S & P 500) Countertrend Wave B Up Of The Wave A Monthly Downcycle Since 1-6-09 Appears To Have Peaked Yesterday

SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) countertrend Wave B up of the Wave A Monthly Downcycle since 1-6-09 appears to have peaked yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

After yesterday 1-26's cycle high SPX (S & P 500) did a likely Wave A down move that bottomed late yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, followed by a countertrend Wave B up move that peaked mid session today, so, SPX (S & P 500) was probably in a Wave C type downcycle at session's end today, and, probably entered Wave C down of the Wave A Monthly Downcycle (since 1-6-09) yesterday 1-26. Note that SPX put in a bearish spike shortly before session's end today 1-27.

The above analysis jives with the extremely bearish Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at -0.70% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-27, -0.04% on 1-26, -1.60% on 1-23, +0.97% on 1-22, -7.16% on 1-21, +3.34% on 1-20, -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15.

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) filled it's upside gaps at 840.24 and 850.12 yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, WMT filled it's upside gap at 48.87 yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, but, SPX probably/very likely remains in a Wave A monthly downcycle since 1-6-09, and, WMT probably/very likely remains in a Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008, partly because the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator remains extremely bearish recently.

Also, looking at WMT's daily chart, it probably needs to do Wave 5 down of the Wave 5 downcycle since mid January (Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.

There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500,
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low this week or next week (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).

The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (-7.53%) reveals an unusually large rise in complacency today, since SPX rose a significant +1.09%, which is an unusually large +6.44% rise in complacency/-6.44% decline in the SPX wall of worry, that typically points to significant SPX strength early on Wednesday, but, weakness appears likely.

SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 871.79 and 934.70, see
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.


GDX/HUI/XAU put in a very short term Wave 3 cycle high yesterday 1-26-09, of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 (Wave 5 of the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. Note the large bearish spike on HUI's red (close below the open) candle on 1-26.

Near session's end yesterday GDX/HUI/XAU entered Wave C of Wave 4 down of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Reliable gold/silver sector Lead Indicator NEM is down sharply after hours (39.80 cycle low in my quote streamer), due to news of a stock offering (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/090127/la63492.html?.v=1) and mine purchase. NEM probably would have fallen significantly/maybe sharply anyway early tomorrow.

Wave 4 down of the GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 will probably bottom early tomorrow. Watch downside gaps at 31.46 (might get filled tomorrow), 29.13 (shouldn't get filled until later) for GDX, and, at 40.90 (filled after hours today 1-27) and 37.83 (shouldn't get filled until later) for NEM.

GDX (Gold Miners Index ETF) long will probably be my primary day trade tomorrow, once it's Wave 4 down move bottoms, and, I'll possibly look to day trade ultra short via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, XOM Lead Indicator was +0.37% versus the XOI today/on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23), SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or TWM (UltraShort RUT ETF), QID (UltraShort NDX ETF), SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF), SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials ETF), etc.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

I made nearly 17.50 cents per share = nearly $175 per 1000 shares traded, in a two minute 34 second SDS (UltraShort SPX ETF) trade today.

GDX/HUI/XAU's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 probably still has substantial upside, because, they will probably do a huge Wave 5 move soon, and, the third/final Wave 5 upcycle of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 should be a spectacular huge blowoff spike move, that will probably begin tomorrow, so, buckle up!

Gold didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal yesterday 1-26, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, but, it has a good shot of doing so/probably will this week. Gold appears to have broken out on Friday 1-23-09, and, followed through to the upside yesterday 1-26, which is a good sign.

NEM has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 40.90 (filled after hours today) and 37.83. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.37% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-27, it was -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21, +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Monday, January 26, 2009

GDX/HUI/XAU Put In A Very Short Term Wave 3 Cycle High Today 1-26-09

GDX/HUI/XAU put in a very short term Wave 3 cycle high today 1-26-09, of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 (Wave 5 of the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. Note the large bearish spike on HUI's red (close below the open) candle today 1-26.

Near session's end GDX/HUI/XAU entered Wave C of Wave 4 down of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. So, severe weakness is likely for much of tomorrow 1-27's session.

One can tell by the five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator that GDX/HUI/XAU's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 probably still has substantial upside, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The third/final Wave 5 upcycle of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 should be a spectacular huge blowoff spike move, that will probably begin tomorrow, so, buckle up!

Gold didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal today 1-26, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, but, it has a good shot of doing so/probably will this week. Gold appears to have broken out on Friday 1-23-09, and, followed through to the upside today 1-26, which is a good sign.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the potential Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.35% versus the XAU today/on 1-26, it was -0.32% on 1-23, +2.53% on 1-22, -0.47% on 1-21, +4.26% on 1-20, -2.75% on 1-16, +0.25% on 1-15, +3.66% on 1-14.


SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) filled it's upside gaps at 840.24 and 850.12, today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, WMT filled it's upside gap at 48.87 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, but, SPX probably/very likely remains in a Wave A monthly downcycle since 1-6-09, and, WMT probably/very likely remains in a Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008, partly because the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator remains extremely bearish recently, at -0.04% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-26, -1.60% on 1-23, +0.97% on 1-22, -7.16% on 1-21, +3.34% on 1-20, -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15.

Also, looking at WMT's daily chart, it probably needs to do Wave 5 down of the Wave 5 downcycle since mid January (Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

On Tuesday I'll look to day trade ultra short via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, XOM Lead Indicator - -2.11% versus the XOI today/on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23), SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or TWM (UltraShort RUT ETF), QID (UltraShort NDX ETF), SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF), SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials ETF), etc.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.

There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low this week (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).

NEM has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 40.90 and 37.83. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.

The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (-3.34%) reveals a sharp rise in complacency today, since SPX rose a significant +0.56%, which is a sharp +2.78% rise in complacency/-2.78% decline in the SPX wall of worry, that points to severe SPX weakness early on Tuesday.

SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 871.79 and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54.


SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.11% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, it was -1.43% on 1-21, +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Saturday, January 24, 2009

GDX/HUI/XAU & Gold/Silver Thoughts and Info/Analysis

Since GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) and NEM have been extremely strong since late October 2008 (they've more than doubled, 100%+ gain), when a five to seven year Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market and a Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle began, this final Wave 5 short term upcycle since 1-15-09 (probably will be about two weeks (lasting another week or so), not three to four weeks, which is why I call it a short term upcycle and not a monthly upcycle), of the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle, has been extremely strong.

Also, the final Wave 5 of the GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) big Wave 5 short term upcycle since 1-15-09 (they were in Wave 3 of Wave 5 at Friday 1-23's close), that will mark the end/peak of the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008, should be a spectacular Wave 5 type blowoff spike move, that will leave a large bearish spike on GDX/HUI/XAU's candle after they peak.

It looks like Wave 5 of Wave 3 (since 1-21-09) of the big Wave 5 short term upcycle since 1-15-09 will peak on Monday (up down up down pattern since early 1-21-09), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.

Cyclewise Monday 1-26 should be another strong day (Wave 5 of Wave 3 (since 1-21-09) type move), though it could be a relatively brief large early spike followed by severe weakness (metals tend to lag), since the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.60% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) on Friday 1-23-09.

Since GDX/HUI/XAU lead the metals, the metals are likely to explode, and, the explosion probably began on Friday, when gold probably broke it's multi month downtrend since 3-17-08 (should follow through on Monday and maybe Tuesday, possibly triggering a 5% major buy signal), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. It isn't apparent in the second weekly view chart, because, it's logarithmic. One HAS to view linear charts to know what's going on. This means that the $681 cycle low in late October 2008 was probably a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the potential Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Friday, January 23, 2009

SPX (S & P 500) and Reliable Broad Market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) Probably Didn't Bottom Yet

SPX (S & P 500) and reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) probably didn't bottom yet, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see WMT at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

One has to look at WMT's chart (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) to see that they very likely didn't bottom yet, and, after knowing that today 1-23's WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.60% versus SPX (S & P 500), it becomes obvious.

Also, the fact that SPX again failed to fill yesterday's upside gap at 840.24 (created at the open), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, is another sign that it very likely didn't bottom yet, as is the fact that WMT failed to fill today's upside gap at 48.87, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, so, it's a bearish breakaway type gap.

Also, reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the current substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.

One exception to the rule that I know of is GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM (probably also the metals now, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/01/gold-appears-to-have-broken-out-in.html). There's a relatively small number of quality gold/silver stocks that one should consider trading or (especially) investing in, or, simply buy GDX (Gold Miners Index ETF).

Some names, not recommendations, are NEM, GG, ABX, AEM, EGO, IAG, SLW, SSRI, PAAS, HL. NEM is good partly because it's timely now, because, it reliably leads to the upside, and, the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late October 2008) is very young.

There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low next week (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).

SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 840.24, 850.12, 871.79 and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 48.87, 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54.

GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 5 (began 1-15-09, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) of the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle since late October 2008 could be a two weekish or less short term upcycle, instead of a three to four weekish monthly upcycle. The huge Wave 5 type spiking action that's occurring since 1-15-09 makes that a likely scenario.

Early today (scary sluggish action early on after a very early spike, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) I day traded GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and made a little over 5 cents/share = $50+ per 1000 shares traded. Trading 10,000 to 20,000 shares that's $500 to $1000+, which is still significant for one trade.

Because it's Wave 5 type spiking/peaking action since 1-15-09, of the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle since late October 2008, ascertaining entry and exit points is very difficult/counterintuitive now intraday, since there's a lot of spiking action going on, with brief very shallow downcycles, making entry points very difficult, and, the amount of time for decision making is very limited, so, one has to be very nimble now when day trading.

On Monday I'll look to day trade ultra short via SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or TWM (UltraShort RUT ETF), QID (UltraShort NDX ETF), SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF), SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials ETF), etc.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.


GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low (cycle began 1-20) on 1-21-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/galle.ry.html?%24gdx. GDX/HUI/XAU have a bullish large inverse spike on 1-21's candle.

GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high on 1-20, for the cycle that began on 1-15-09 (Wave 5 monthly upcycle began), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, note the bearish large spike on 1-20's bearish red (close below the open) candle. Also, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.32% versus the XAU today/on 1-23, it was +2.53% on 1-22, -0.47% on 1-21, +4.26% on 1-20, -2.75% on 1-16, +0.25% on 1-15, +3.66% on 1-14, -2.41% on 1-13, +3.59% on 1-12, +0.57% on 1-9, +2.02% on 1-8.

Today 1-23 GDX (Gold Miners ETF) filled upside gaps at 33.32 from 1-5's open, and, the one on 1-7 at 32.61.

NEM has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 40.90 and 37.83. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-23, it was +0.97% on 1-22, it was a super bearish -7.16% on 1-21, +3.34% on 1-20, -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15, +2.28% on 1-14, +1.24% on 1-13, +1.89% on 1-12, +2.52% on 1-9.

The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (-0.06%) reveals a modest rise in fear today, since SPX rose a significant +0.54%, which is a modest +0.48% rise in fear/+0.48% rise in the SPX wall of worry, that points to modest SPX strength early on Monday.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.41% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, it was -1.43% on 1-21, +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.

In the near future I also plan to start trading an income type ETF short term (a few days or just overnight). Some income type ETFs are as volatile as rockets (PFF, COY, EAD, PHK, HYG, JNK, etc). A reader suggested TLT (20 Year Treasury ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tlt, yield right now is about 3.50%, as best as I can tell based on a very quick look at Yahoo's info) a few months ago, which is a definite possibility, and, is one of the safer, more calm, low volatility income type ETF s.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Gold Appears To Have Broken Out In A Major Way Today

Gold appears to have broken out in a major way today, see the gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, breaking it's multi month downtrend since 3-17-08. It isn't apparent in the second weekly view chart, because, it's logarithmic. One HAS to view linear charts to know what's going on. This means that the $681 cycle low in late October 2008 was probably a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.

Gold might even hit a 5%+ follow through major buy signal today 1-23-09, but, I'll have to chart it, unless it's obvious by session's end.

Keep in mind that this is my preliminary thinking, and, a 5%+ follow through major buy signal must occur before Trade the Cycles turns bullish on gold. Human opinions are meaningless regarding timing major cycles. Cycle trendline major buy/sell signals completely filter out human noise.

GDX/HUI/XAU and reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM are going bananas today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, which makes sense cyclewise, since this is a Wave 5 type move since 1-15-09.

I have a significant NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) position in an IRA, so, I'm definitely benefitting from the GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM explosion since late October 2008, when a five to seven year Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market very likely began. NEM is leading to the upside so far today 1-23-09, up +8.40% right now on strong volume of 5.84 million shares.

GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 5 (began 1-15-09, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) of the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle since late October 2008 could be a two weekish or less short term upcycle, instead of a three to four weekish monthly upcycle. The huge Wave 5 type spiking action that's occurring since 1-15-09 makes that a likely scenario.

Early today (scary sluggish action early on after a very early spike, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) I day traded GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and made a little over 5 cents/share = $50+ per 1000 shares traded. Trading 10,000 to 20,000 shares that's $500 to $1000+, which is still significant for one trade.

Because it's Wave 5 type spiking/peaking action since 1-15-09, of the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle since late October 2008, ascertaining entry and exit points is very difficult/counterintuitive now intraday, since there's a lot of spiking action going on, with brief very shallow downcycles, making entry points very difficult, and, the amount of time for decision making is very limited, so, one has to be very nimble.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Labels: , , , , , , ,

Thursday, January 22, 2009

SPX (S & P 500) Might Not Have Bottomed Yesterday

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) might not have bottomed/entered a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle yesterday 1-21-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Today's early plunge looks like a Wave A type move, and, today's rebound looks like a countertrend Wave B type move, note the bearish spike late in the day.

So, a test of yesterday's potential SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) short term (might end up being more like a monthly downcycle) Wave A cycle low (cycle began 1-6-09) appears likely tomorrow.

SPX (S & P 500) has a bearish breakaway upside gap at 840.24 from today 1-22’s open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The fact that SPX came very close, but, failed to fill that upside gap today, supports the above analysis/conclusion, that SPX might not have bottomed yesterday.

Broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) appears to have put in an important Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low today/on 1-22-09 (completed an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle), for the cycle since early December 2008, note that there's a large bullish inverse spike on today's candle, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, and, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.97% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-22, so, maybe there won't be as much weakness as expected tomorrow.

Today I day traded SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF, three minute 41 second trade) and made a little over 31 cents/share = $310 per 1000 shares traded.

Tomorrow I'll look to trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF), SSO (Ultra Long SPX (S & P 500) ETF), or, maybe DIG (Ultra Long Oil and Gas ETF). It might be a good day to trade long, after likely early weakness.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

SPX (S & P 500) upside gaps to watch in the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle that might have begun yesterday 1-21-09 are 840.24, 850.12, 871.79 and 934.70. The important one to watch is obviously 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, since this SPX (S & P 500) short term countertrend Wave B upcycle should peak shortly after either filling or failing to fill 934.70.

Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) created a bearish breakaway gap at yesterday's open at 50.56, and, also has ones at 52.12 and 55.54.

GDX/HUI/XAU probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low (cycle began 1-20) yesterday/on 1-21-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/galle.ry.html?%24gdx. GDX/HUI/XAU have a bullish large inverse spike on 1-21's candle.

GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high on 1-20, for the cycle that began on 1-15-09 (Wave 5 monthly upcycle began), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, note the bearish large spike on 1-20's bearish red (close below the open) candle. Also, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.53% versus the XAU today/on 1-22, which is a very short term bearish indication, it was -0.47% on 1-21, +4.26% on 1-20, -2.75% on 1-16, +0.25% on 1-15, +3.66% on 1-14, -2.41% on 1-13, +3.59% on 1-12, +0.57% on 1-9, +2.02% on 1-8.

Gold might experience a major breakout in the next week or so (might decisively break the downtrend since 3-17-08), see the gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, see also http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/01/its-hard-now-to-imagine-how-gold-wont.html.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has upside gaps at 33.32 from 1-5's open, and, created one on 1-7 at 32.61. These upside gaps should get filled in the next few sessions.

NEM has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 37.83 from 1-20's open. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bullish
+0.97% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-22, it was a super bearish -7.16% on 1-21, +3.34% on 1-20, -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15, +2.28% on 1-14, +1.24% on 1-13, +1.89% on 1-12, +2.52% on 1-9.


The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (+1.87%) reveals a slight rise in fear today, relative to the significant SPX decline of -1.52%, which is a slight +0.25% rise in fear/+0.25% rise in the SPX wall of worry, that points to slight SPX strength early on Friday.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.36% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-22, it was -1.43% on 1-21, +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.

In the near future I also plan to start trading an income type ETF short term (a few days or just overnight). Some income type ETFs are as volatile as rockets (PFF, COY, EAD, PHK, HYG, JNK, etc). A reader suggested TLT (20 Year Treasury ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tlt, yield right now is about 3.50%, as best as I can tell based on a very quick look at Yahoo's info) a few months ago, which is a definite possibility, and, is one of the safer, more calm, low volatility income type ETF s.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,