SPX (S & P 500) Might Not Have Bottomed Yesterday
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) might not have bottomed/entered a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle yesterday 1-21-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Today's early plunge looks like a Wave A type move, and, today's rebound looks like a countertrend Wave B type move, note the bearish spike late in the day.
So, a test of yesterday's potential SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) short term (might end up being more like a monthly downcycle) Wave A cycle low (cycle began 1-6-09) appears likely tomorrow.
SPX (S & P 500) has a bearish breakaway upside gap at 840.24 from today 1-22’s open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The fact that SPX came very close, but, failed to fill that upside gap today, supports the above analysis/conclusion, that SPX might not have bottomed yesterday.
Broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) appears to have put in an important Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low today/on 1-22-09 (completed an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle), for the cycle since early December 2008, note that there's a large bullish inverse spike on today's candle, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, and, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.97% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-22, so, maybe there won't be as much weakness as expected tomorrow.
Today I day traded SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF, three minute 41 second trade) and made a little over 31 cents/share = $310 per 1000 shares traded.
Tomorrow I'll look to trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF), SSO (Ultra Long SPX (S & P 500) ETF), or, maybe DIG (Ultra Long Oil and Gas ETF). It might be a good day to trade long, after likely early weakness.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
SPX (S & P 500) upside gaps to watch in the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle that might have begun yesterday 1-21-09 are 840.24, 850.12, 871.79 and 934.70. The important one to watch is obviously 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, since this SPX (S & P 500) short term countertrend Wave B upcycle should peak shortly after either filling or failing to fill 934.70.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) created a bearish breakaway gap at yesterday's open at 50.56, and, also has ones at 52.12 and 55.54.
GDX/HUI/XAU probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low (cycle began 1-20) yesterday/on 1-21-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/galle.ry.html?%24gdx. GDX/HUI/XAU have a bullish large inverse spike on 1-21's candle.
GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high on 1-20, for the cycle that began on 1-15-09 (Wave 5 monthly upcycle began), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, note the bearish large spike on 1-20's bearish red (close below the open) candle. Also, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.53% versus the XAU today/on 1-22, which is a very short term bearish indication, it was -0.47% on 1-21, +4.26% on 1-20, -2.75% on 1-16, +0.25% on 1-15, +3.66% on 1-14, -2.41% on 1-13, +3.59% on 1-12, +0.57% on 1-9, +2.02% on 1-8.
Gold might experience a major breakout in the next week or so (might decisively break the downtrend since 3-17-08), see the gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, see also http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/01/its-hard-now-to-imagine-how-gold-wont.html.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has upside gaps at 33.32 from 1-5's open, and, created one on 1-7 at 32.61. These upside gaps should get filled in the next few sessions.
NEM has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 37.83 from 1-20's open. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bullish
+0.97% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-22, it was a super bearish -7.16% on 1-21, +3.34% on 1-20, -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15, +2.28% on 1-14, +1.24% on 1-13, +1.89% on 1-12, +2.52% on 1-9.
The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (+1.87%) reveals a slight rise in fear today, relative to the significant SPX decline of -1.52%, which is a slight +0.25% rise in fear/+0.25% rise in the SPX wall of worry, that points to slight SPX strength early on Friday.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.36% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-22, it was -1.43% on 1-21, +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.
In the near future I also plan to start trading an income type ETF short term (a few days or just overnight). Some income type ETFs are as volatile as rockets (PFF, COY, EAD, PHK, HYG, JNK, etc). A reader suggested TLT (20 Year Treasury ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tlt, yield right now is about 3.50%, as best as I can tell based on a very quick look at Yahoo's info) a few months ago, which is a definite possibility, and, is one of the safer, more calm, low volatility income type ETF s.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
So, a test of yesterday's potential SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) short term (might end up being more like a monthly downcycle) Wave A cycle low (cycle began 1-6-09) appears likely tomorrow.
SPX (S & P 500) has a bearish breakaway upside gap at 840.24 from today 1-22’s open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The fact that SPX came very close, but, failed to fill that upside gap today, supports the above analysis/conclusion, that SPX might not have bottomed yesterday.
Broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) appears to have put in an important Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low today/on 1-22-09 (completed an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle), for the cycle since early December 2008, note that there's a large bullish inverse spike on today's candle, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, and, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.97% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-22, so, maybe there won't be as much weakness as expected tomorrow.
Today I day traded SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF, three minute 41 second trade) and made a little over 31 cents/share = $310 per 1000 shares traded.
Tomorrow I'll look to trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF), SSO (Ultra Long SPX (S & P 500) ETF), or, maybe DIG (Ultra Long Oil and Gas ETF). It might be a good day to trade long, after likely early weakness.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
SPX (S & P 500) upside gaps to watch in the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle that might have begun yesterday 1-21-09 are 840.24, 850.12, 871.79 and 934.70. The important one to watch is obviously 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, since this SPX (S & P 500) short term countertrend Wave B upcycle should peak shortly after either filling or failing to fill 934.70.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) created a bearish breakaway gap at yesterday's open at 50.56, and, also has ones at 52.12 and 55.54.
GDX/HUI/XAU probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low (cycle began 1-20) yesterday/on 1-21-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/galle.ry.html?%24gdx. GDX/HUI/XAU have a bullish large inverse spike on 1-21's candle.
GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high on 1-20, for the cycle that began on 1-15-09 (Wave 5 monthly upcycle began), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, note the bearish large spike on 1-20's bearish red (close below the open) candle. Also, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.53% versus the XAU today/on 1-22, which is a very short term bearish indication, it was -0.47% on 1-21, +4.26% on 1-20, -2.75% on 1-16, +0.25% on 1-15, +3.66% on 1-14, -2.41% on 1-13, +3.59% on 1-12, +0.57% on 1-9, +2.02% on 1-8.
Gold might experience a major breakout in the next week or so (might decisively break the downtrend since 3-17-08), see the gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, see also http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/01/its-hard-now-to-imagine-how-gold-wont.html.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has upside gaps at 33.32 from 1-5's open, and, created one on 1-7 at 32.61. These upside gaps should get filled in the next few sessions.
NEM has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 37.83 from 1-20's open. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bullish
+0.97% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-22, it was a super bearish -7.16% on 1-21, +3.34% on 1-20, -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15, +2.28% on 1-14, +1.24% on 1-13, +1.89% on 1-12, +2.52% on 1-9.
The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (+1.87%) reveals a slight rise in fear today, relative to the significant SPX decline of -1.52%, which is a slight +0.25% rise in fear/+0.25% rise in the SPX wall of worry, that points to slight SPX strength early on Friday.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.36% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-22, it was -1.43% on 1-21, +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.
In the near future I also plan to start trading an income type ETF short term (a few days or just overnight). Some income type ETFs are as volatile as rockets (PFF, COY, EAD, PHK, HYG, JNK, etc). A reader suggested TLT (20 Year Treasury ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tlt, yield right now is about 3.50%, as best as I can tell based on a very quick look at Yahoo's info) a few months ago, which is a definite possibility, and, is one of the safer, more calm, low volatility income type ETF s.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, TAN, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:55 PM
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