SPX (S & P 500) and GDX/HUI/XAU Probably Bottomed Today
SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed and put in a short term Wave A cycle low today (cycle began 1-6-09), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, GDX/HUI/XAU probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low (cycle began yesterday), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/galle.ry.html?%24gdx.
Note that SPX (S & P 500) doesn't have a bullish large inverse spike on today 1-21's candle, but, it did put in a near perfect bullish double bottom yesterday and today, while GDX/HUI/XAU do have a bullish large inverse spike on today 1-21's candle.
Also, SPX (S & P 500) did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern since 1-6-09's countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) upside gaps to watch in the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle that began today 1-21-09 are 850.12, 871.79 and 934.70. The important one to watch is obviously 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, since this SPX (S & P 500) short term countertrend Wave B upcycle should peak shortly after either filling or failing to fill 934.70.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) created a bearish breakaway gap at today's open at 50.56, and, also has ones at 52.12 and 55.54.
WMT appears to/might have completed an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down minor intermediate term downcycle (since early December 2008) today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. Note the bullish large inverse spike on today 1-21's candle.
GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high yesterday 1-20, for the cycle that began on 1-15-09 (Wave 5 monthly upcycle began), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, note the bearish large spike on 1-20's bearish red (close below the open) candle. Also, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
Gold might experience a major breakout in the next week or so (might decisively break the downtrend since 3-17-08), see the gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, see also http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/01/its-hard-now-to-imagine-how-gold-wont.html.
Tomorrow 1-22 I'll look to day trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF) or iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index ETF long (PFF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?pff). PFF probably put in a Wave 4 monthly cycle low today 1-21 (there's an up down up down pattern since early October 2008). Note the bullish large inverse spike on today 1-21's candle.
Today I day traded SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) twice (one and two minute type quick hitters) and made 36 cents/share = $360 per 1000 shares traded.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has upside gaps at 33.32 from 1-5's open, and, created one on 1-7 at 32.61. These upside gaps should get filled this week.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a super bearish
-7.16% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-21, which is a very short term bullish (?, brief strength followed by weakness is likely tomorrow 1-22) indication, and, it was extremely bullish prior to today, at +3.34% on 1-20, -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15, +2.28% on 1-14, +1.24% on 1-13, +1.89% on 1-12, +2.52% on 1-9.
The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX reveals an unusually large rise in complacency today (-18.06%), relative to the very sharp SPX rise of +4.35%, which is an unusually large +13.71% rise in complacency/-13.71% decline in the SPX wall of worry, that points to significant SPX strength early on Thursday.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.43% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-21, it was +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.
In the near future I also plan to start trading an income type ETF short term (a few days or just overnight). Some income type ETFs are as volatile as rockets (PFF, COY, EAD, PHK, HYG, JNK, etc). A reader suggested TLT (20 Year Treasury ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tlt, yield right now is about 3.50%, as best as I can tell based on a very quick look at Yahoo's info) a few months ago, which is a definite possibility, and, is one of the safer, more calm, low volatility income type ETF s.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
NEM created a bearish breakaway upside gap at 37.04 at 1-12's open (filled), one at 39.55 at 1-7's open (filled), and, one at 40.33 (filled) at 1-5's open. NEM has a downside gap at 37.83 from 1-20's open.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 29.13, 28.67 (it got filled 1-13), 25.41, and 23.23. GDX created an upside gap at 33.32 at 1-5's open, that's a bearish breakaway upside gap, and, created ones on 1-7 at 32.61 and on 1-12 at 31.31 (filled).
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU (the major breakout is more obvious in the XAU's chart) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Note that SPX (S & P 500) doesn't have a bullish large inverse spike on today 1-21's candle, but, it did put in a near perfect bullish double bottom yesterday and today, while GDX/HUI/XAU do have a bullish large inverse spike on today 1-21's candle.
Also, SPX (S & P 500) did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern since 1-6-09's countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) upside gaps to watch in the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle that began today 1-21-09 are 850.12, 871.79 and 934.70. The important one to watch is obviously 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, since this SPX (S & P 500) short term countertrend Wave B upcycle should peak shortly after either filling or failing to fill 934.70.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) created a bearish breakaway gap at today's open at 50.56, and, also has ones at 52.12 and 55.54.
WMT appears to/might have completed an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down minor intermediate term downcycle (since early December 2008) today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. Note the bullish large inverse spike on today 1-21's candle.
GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high yesterday 1-20, for the cycle that began on 1-15-09 (Wave 5 monthly upcycle began), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, note the bearish large spike on 1-20's bearish red (close below the open) candle. Also, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
Gold might experience a major breakout in the next week or so (might decisively break the downtrend since 3-17-08), see the gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, see also http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/01/its-hard-now-to-imagine-how-gold-wont.html.
Tomorrow 1-22 I'll look to day trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF) or iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index ETF long (PFF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?pff). PFF probably put in a Wave 4 monthly cycle low today 1-21 (there's an up down up down pattern since early October 2008). Note the bullish large inverse spike on today 1-21's candle.
Today I day traded SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) twice (one and two minute type quick hitters) and made 36 cents/share = $360 per 1000 shares traded.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has upside gaps at 33.32 from 1-5's open, and, created one on 1-7 at 32.61. These upside gaps should get filled this week.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a super bearish
-7.16% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-21, which is a very short term bullish (?, brief strength followed by weakness is likely tomorrow 1-22) indication, and, it was extremely bullish prior to today, at +3.34% on 1-20, -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15, +2.28% on 1-14, +1.24% on 1-13, +1.89% on 1-12, +2.52% on 1-9.
The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX reveals an unusually large rise in complacency today (-18.06%), relative to the very sharp SPX rise of +4.35%, which is an unusually large +13.71% rise in complacency/-13.71% decline in the SPX wall of worry, that points to significant SPX strength early on Thursday.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.43% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-21, it was +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.
In the near future I also plan to start trading an income type ETF short term (a few days or just overnight). Some income type ETFs are as volatile as rockets (PFF, COY, EAD, PHK, HYG, JNK, etc). A reader suggested TLT (20 Year Treasury ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tlt, yield right now is about 3.50%, as best as I can tell based on a very quick look at Yahoo's info) a few months ago, which is a definite possibility, and, is one of the safer, more calm, low volatility income type ETF s.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
NEM created a bearish breakaway upside gap at 37.04 at 1-12's open (filled), one at 39.55 at 1-7's open (filled), and, one at 40.33 (filled) at 1-5's open. NEM has a downside gap at 37.83 from 1-20's open.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 29.13, 28.67 (it got filled 1-13), 25.41, and 23.23. GDX created an upside gap at 33.32 at 1-5's open, that's a bearish breakaway upside gap, and, created ones on 1-7 at 32.61 and on 1-12 at 31.31 (filled).
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU (the major breakout is more obvious in the XAU's chart) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, TAN, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:01 PM
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