What Will Turn Trade The Cycles Bullish On Gold?
What will turn Trade the Cycles bullish on gold? Many of you know the answer. A 5% follow through major buy signal, which is a clear major breakout, such as GDX/HUI/XAU experienced on 12-10-08, see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Gold has to break it's multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend since 3-17-08's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, and, it has to follow through by 5% or more after doing so, see the gold ETF GLD at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GLD&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
I suspect that gold's cycle low at $681 in late October 2008 is only a Wave A cycle low, of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08, not the final Wave C cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, since gold tends to lag GDX/HUI/XAU at important cycle highs/lows.
But, if gold can break it's multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend AND hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, Trade the Cycles will turn bullish on gold, and, therefore I obviously will turn bullish.
So, human opinion is not the important thing for important cycles. I have to be bearish regarding gold, because, it's still in a downtrend since 3-17-08 (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began). I have to be bullish regarding GDX/HUI/XAU, because, they experienced a major breakout/5% follow through major buy signal on 12-10-08, see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Pure science. I had to turn bearish regarding gold in March 2008 when a 5% follow through major sell signal occurred. There's obviously plenty of noise in this sector.
Investors and intermediate term cycle or longer traders can largely eliminate guesswork and risk, by buying and selling using well established cycle trendline buy/sell signals.
Short term and very short term traders like myself must rely on Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, knowledge of what all the cycles are, indicators, candlestick charts are very useful (provide good insight into the cycles), the nature of cycles (rolling over for example, Wave 3s tend to be large, etc), etc, for timing entry/exit points, which are also used obviously to finetune entry/exit points for investors and intermediate term cycle (maybe monthly cycles also) or longer traders.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Gold has to break it's multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend since 3-17-08's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, and, it has to follow through by 5% or more after doing so, see the gold ETF GLD at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GLD&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
I suspect that gold's cycle low at $681 in late October 2008 is only a Wave A cycle low, of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08, not the final Wave C cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, since gold tends to lag GDX/HUI/XAU at important cycle highs/lows.
But, if gold can break it's multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend AND hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, Trade the Cycles will turn bullish on gold, and, therefore I obviously will turn bullish.
So, human opinion is not the important thing for important cycles. I have to be bearish regarding gold, because, it's still in a downtrend since 3-17-08 (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began). I have to be bullish regarding GDX/HUI/XAU, because, they experienced a major breakout/5% follow through major buy signal on 12-10-08, see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Pure science. I had to turn bearish regarding gold in March 2008 when a 5% follow through major sell signal occurred. There's obviously plenty of noise in this sector.
Investors and intermediate term cycle or longer traders can largely eliminate guesswork and risk, by buying and selling using well established cycle trendline buy/sell signals.
Short term and very short term traders like myself must rely on Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, knowledge of what all the cycles are, indicators, candlestick charts are very useful (provide good insight into the cycles), the nature of cycles (rolling over for example, Wave 3s tend to be large, etc), etc, for timing entry/exit points, which are also used obviously to finetune entry/exit points for investors and intermediate term cycle (maybe monthly cycles also) or longer traders.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:49 PM
4 Comments:
You are the first person to mention that gold is in a wave A down. 3 impulse waves down cannot be the end of a correction so therefore we must be in wave A. Not one other gold analyst has even seen this. Basic stuff.
By
Sean, at 10:37 AM
Thanks Sean. I obviously need to read about impulse waves. I'm not really much of a student of Elliott Wave theory, I largely use the patterns, know that Wave 3s tend to be large, inverse 12345 patterns are highly useful, etc.
But, as a result of your insightful comment, I'm going to do some reading/study of Elliott Wave theory, at least regarding impulse waves. I periodically do some reading, but, not in the past year or more. Thanks! Joe
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:53 AM
Print this out as a good reference:www.geocities.com/neng_dyah/Elliott_Wave_Principle.pdf
Don't follow it slavishly, because you will find that your own analysis free from prior EW knowledge, will probably stand you in better stead. ie you will find waves overlapping where they should't ect. In fact you will find that you have discovered a bit more about EW theory than what is in fact written!
By
Sean, at 12:36 PM
Thanks for the link Sean, and, for more good insight. I love it. Please keep it coming!
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 12:40 PM
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