Trade the Cycles

Friday, January 02, 2009

Monday Should Be A Good Day To Trade Short

Monday should be a good day to trade short, since this likely final Wave 5 type rollover (versus the 12-17-08 cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) SPX (S & P 500) spike move since late on 12-29-08 will probably peak early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was very bearish today, and, is extremely bearish recently, at -1.16% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-2-09, +0.42% on 12-31, -2.55% on 12-30, -0.04% on 12-29, -0.70% on 12-26, +0.19% on 12-24, -0.28% on 12-23.

The gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator was bearish today, and, is extremely bearish recently, at -0.57% versus the XAU today/on 1-2-09, -0.53% on 12-31, -1.01% on 12-30, +1.71% on 12-29, -0.57% on 12-26, +0.16% on 12-24, -1.60% on 12-23, -0.95% on 12-22.

The oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was very bearish today, and, is extremely bearish recently, at -1.83% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-2-09, +0.55% on 12-31, -1.66% on 12-30, -0.83% on 12-29.

On Monday I'll look to day trade the major averages ultra short via SDS/TWM/QID, or, I might day trade SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF) or DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF).

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

I made nearly 13 cents/share = nearly $130 per 1000 shares traded in a 3 minute 29 second TWM (UltraShort RUT (Russell 2000)) trade today. Can you believe I ultra shorted today? Obviously, I've been keeping my trading timeframe extremely short in recent months, and, it's served me well.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

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