An SPX (S & P 500) Short Term Countertrend Wave B Upcycle Has Been In Effect Since 12-29-08
An SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) short term countertrend Wave B upcycle has been in effect since late on 12-29-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
Quarter and year end window dressing by mutual funds was probably a major factor behind the strength since late on 12-29-08.
An SPX (S & P 500) short term Wave A downcycle occurred from 12-17-08's cycle high at 918.85 until late on 12-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The upcycle since late on 12-29-08 looks like it'll peak below the 12-17-08 cycle high at 918.85, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, which means that it's probably a countertrend Wave B type upcycle as expected.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, at +0.42% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-31-08, -2.55% on 12-30, -0.04% on 12-29, -0.70% on 12-26.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator has turned very bearish, at -0.53% versus the XAU today/on 12-31, and -1.01% on 12-30.
The Oil and Gas Sector XOM Lead Indicator has turned very bearish, at +0.55% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) today/on 12-31, -1.66% on 12-30, -0.83% on 12-29.
On Friday, once I'm convinced that the countertrend Wave B upcycle (in effect since late on 12-29-08) has peaked, I'll look to day trade SPX or RUT ultra short via SDS or (probably) TWM. I also might day trade SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF) or DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF). I might hold a modest ultra short position overnight.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Today I day traded mid session weakness via TWM and made 12 cents/share = $120 per 1000 shares traded.
GDX/HUI/XAU's countertrend Wave B upcycle of the Wave 4 monthly downcycle since 12-17-08 appears to be peaking, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, their Wave 3 monthly upcycle (began in late November) might peak in rollover mode (GDX's did after I wrote this, and, it might end up being a near perfect bearish double top), especially in the case of GDX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
Thus ends today's market update. Ciao. Happy New Year!
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Quarter and year end window dressing by mutual funds was probably a major factor behind the strength since late on 12-29-08.
An SPX (S & P 500) short term Wave A downcycle occurred from 12-17-08's cycle high at 918.85 until late on 12-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The upcycle since late on 12-29-08 looks like it'll peak below the 12-17-08 cycle high at 918.85, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, which means that it's probably a countertrend Wave B type upcycle as expected.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, at +0.42% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-31-08, -2.55% on 12-30, -0.04% on 12-29, -0.70% on 12-26.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator has turned very bearish, at -0.53% versus the XAU today/on 12-31, and -1.01% on 12-30.
The Oil and Gas Sector XOM Lead Indicator has turned very bearish, at +0.55% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) today/on 12-31, -1.66% on 12-30, -0.83% on 12-29.
On Friday, once I'm convinced that the countertrend Wave B upcycle (in effect since late on 12-29-08) has peaked, I'll look to day trade SPX or RUT ultra short via SDS or (probably) TWM. I also might day trade SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF) or DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF). I might hold a modest ultra short position overnight.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Today I day traded mid session weakness via TWM and made 12 cents/share = $120 per 1000 shares traded.
GDX/HUI/XAU's countertrend Wave B upcycle of the Wave 4 monthly downcycle since 12-17-08 appears to be peaking, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, their Wave 3 monthly upcycle (began in late November) might peak in rollover mode (GDX's did after I wrote this, and, it might end up being a near perfect bearish double top), especially in the case of GDX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
Thus ends today's market update. Ciao. Happy New Year!
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, TAN, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:52 AM
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