SPX (S & P 500)/Major Averages Countertrend Spike Move And GDX/HUI/XAU Are Short Term Bearish
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is doing a big countertrend Wave B spike move since late yesterday 12-29-08, of the short term Wave A downcycle since 12-17-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, at -2.55% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-30, -0.04% on 12-29, -0.70% on 12-26, +0.19% on 12-24, -0.28% on 12-23, which jives with today's strength probably being a countertrend Wave B spike move.
Since SPX (S & P 500) appears to have been in Wave 5 peaking of the countertrend Wave B spike move since late yesterday 12-29-08 at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, a good shorting opportunity will probably present itself early tomorrow 12-31-08 (Happy New Year!).
I'll look to ultra short the major averages via SDS/TWM/QID or the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) via DUG early tomorrow. Today I day traded the mid session weakness, with a six minute six second TWM (UltraShort Russell 2000 (RUT) ETF) trade, in which I netted nearly 13 cents/share/nearly $130 per 1000 shares traded.
Now, GDX/HUI/XAU appear to be in a Wave 4 monthly downcycle since 12-17-08, not a short term Wave 5 upcycle of a Wave 3 monthly upcycle (started late November 2008), see GDX (Gold Miners ETF) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Note the bearish medium spike on 12-17-08's bearish red candle.
Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's cycle high on 12-17-08 (bearish large spike on a bearish red candle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, appears to be a Wave 1 monthly cycle high, which means that NEM is probably in a Wave 2 monthly downcycle.
Given that the gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.71% versus the XAU yesterday/on 12-29-08, and, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM created bullish breakaway gaps at yesterday's open at 32.25 and 38.85 respectively, today should have brought a big move up, if GDX/HUI/XAU were in a short term Wave 5 upcycle of a Wave 3 monthly upcycle. Today's action obviously confirmed the short term bearish case.
Also, the NEM Lead Indicator was very bearish today and recently, at -1.01% versus the XAU today/on 12-30-08, +1.71% on 12-29, -0.57% on 12-26, +0.16% on 12-24, -1.60% on 12-23, -0.95% on 12-22.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM should try to fill the downside gaps created at yesterday's open (at 32.25 and 38.85 respectively) tomorrow (GDX cycle low was 32.31 today, which strongly supports the short term bearish case). GDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 28.67, 25.41, and 23.23.
The good news is that, some time in the next week or so, there should be a good buying opportunity, to catch the Wave 5 monthly upcycle.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF)/HUI/XAU did an entire monthly cycle (very short but huge eight session Wave 1 monthly upcycle and a Wave 2 monthly downcycle) from late October until late November 2008, see GDX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
If SPX (S & P 500)/the market is about to experience (roughly within the next month or so) a substantial decline and take out the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which appears likely, then, this short term Wave A downcycle (since late 12-17-08) is probably part of a larger/longer Wave A downcycle.
Note that, since the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, SPX (S & P 500) did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern in very anemic rollover mode, with the Wave 5 cycle high being the bearish double top cycle high at 918.85 on 12-17-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
For you oil and gas sector aficionados, see the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi, obviously, like the major averages, waiting for a 5% major buy signal is the prudent thing to do.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish recently, at
-1.66% versus the XOI today/on 12-30, -0.83% on 12-29, +0.28% on 12-26, +1.17% on 12-24, +0.97% on 12-23, +1.65% on 12-22, -2.08% on 12-19, +0.09% on 12-18, -3.00% on 12-17, -1.09% on 12-16, -0.54% on 12-15, +1.67% on 12-12, -1.07% on 12-11, -1.61% on 12-10, -1.41% on 12-9, -2.20% on 12-8, -1.47% on 12-5.
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/the market/most sectors/indexes might have bottomed (very doubtful obviously, because, they didn't hit a 5% major buy signal yet, and, they appear to be breaking down), and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market, however, the Cyclical Bull Market for the major averages is likely to be a brief six to nine monthish one.
A bearish sign is that most of SPX's (S & P 500) gains since the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, came in the FIRST TWO SESSIONS of the upcycle.
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU (the major breakout is more obvious in the XAU's chart) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
It'll take time to inflate the world out of this deflationary mess/credit crisis. Yes, gold might hit $2000+ in about 10 years, but, it might hit $350-$400 next year, when it finally bottoms. Remember that HUI/XAU bottomed in late 2000, whereas, gold bottomed in April 2001 and silver didn't bottom until late 2001. The metals LAG.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, at -2.55% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-30, -0.04% on 12-29, -0.70% on 12-26, +0.19% on 12-24, -0.28% on 12-23, which jives with today's strength probably being a countertrend Wave B spike move.
Since SPX (S & P 500) appears to have been in Wave 5 peaking of the countertrend Wave B spike move since late yesterday 12-29-08 at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, a good shorting opportunity will probably present itself early tomorrow 12-31-08 (Happy New Year!).
I'll look to ultra short the major averages via SDS/TWM/QID or the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) via DUG early tomorrow. Today I day traded the mid session weakness, with a six minute six second TWM (UltraShort Russell 2000 (RUT) ETF) trade, in which I netted nearly 13 cents/share/nearly $130 per 1000 shares traded.
Now, GDX/HUI/XAU appear to be in a Wave 4 monthly downcycle since 12-17-08, not a short term Wave 5 upcycle of a Wave 3 monthly upcycle (started late November 2008), see GDX (Gold Miners ETF) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Note the bearish medium spike on 12-17-08's bearish red candle.
Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's cycle high on 12-17-08 (bearish large spike on a bearish red candle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, appears to be a Wave 1 monthly cycle high, which means that NEM is probably in a Wave 2 monthly downcycle.
Given that the gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.71% versus the XAU yesterday/on 12-29-08, and, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM created bullish breakaway gaps at yesterday's open at 32.25 and 38.85 respectively, today should have brought a big move up, if GDX/HUI/XAU were in a short term Wave 5 upcycle of a Wave 3 monthly upcycle. Today's action obviously confirmed the short term bearish case.
Also, the NEM Lead Indicator was very bearish today and recently, at -1.01% versus the XAU today/on 12-30-08, +1.71% on 12-29, -0.57% on 12-26, +0.16% on 12-24, -1.60% on 12-23, -0.95% on 12-22.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM should try to fill the downside gaps created at yesterday's open (at 32.25 and 38.85 respectively) tomorrow (GDX cycle low was 32.31 today, which strongly supports the short term bearish case). GDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 28.67, 25.41, and 23.23.
The good news is that, some time in the next week or so, there should be a good buying opportunity, to catch the Wave 5 monthly upcycle.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF)/HUI/XAU did an entire monthly cycle (very short but huge eight session Wave 1 monthly upcycle and a Wave 2 monthly downcycle) from late October until late November 2008, see GDX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
If SPX (S & P 500)/the market is about to experience (roughly within the next month or so) a substantial decline and take out the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which appears likely, then, this short term Wave A downcycle (since late 12-17-08) is probably part of a larger/longer Wave A downcycle.
Note that, since the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, SPX (S & P 500) did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern in very anemic rollover mode, with the Wave 5 cycle high being the bearish double top cycle high at 918.85 on 12-17-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
For you oil and gas sector aficionados, see the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi, obviously, like the major averages, waiting for a 5% major buy signal is the prudent thing to do.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish recently, at
-1.66% versus the XOI today/on 12-30, -0.83% on 12-29, +0.28% on 12-26, +1.17% on 12-24, +0.97% on 12-23, +1.65% on 12-22, -2.08% on 12-19, +0.09% on 12-18, -3.00% on 12-17, -1.09% on 12-16, -0.54% on 12-15, +1.67% on 12-12, -1.07% on 12-11, -1.61% on 12-10, -1.41% on 12-9, -2.20% on 12-8, -1.47% on 12-5.
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/the market/most sectors/indexes might have bottomed (very doubtful obviously, because, they didn't hit a 5% major buy signal yet, and, they appear to be breaking down), and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market, however, the Cyclical Bull Market for the major averages is likely to be a brief six to nine monthish one.
A bearish sign is that most of SPX's (S & P 500) gains since the November 2008 cycle low at 741.02, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, came in the FIRST TWO SESSIONS of the upcycle.
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU (the major breakout is more obvious in the XAU's chart) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
It'll take time to inflate the world out of this deflationary mess/credit crisis. Yes, gold might hit $2000+ in about 10 years, but, it might hit $350-$400 next year, when it finally bottoms. Remember that HUI/XAU bottomed in late 2000, whereas, gold bottomed in April 2001 and silver didn't bottom until late 2001. The metals LAG.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:34 PM
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