SPX (S & P 500) Entered Wave C of the Short Term Wave A Downcycle Since 1-6-09
SPX (S & P 500) entered Wave C of the Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 1-6-09 right after today's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX (S & P 500) did a Wave A type crash early on, after a slight pop at the open, then did countertrend Wave B action most of the remainder of the session, which made day trading ultra short difficult, and, late in the session SPX (S & P 500) did a little intraday Wave A type move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX (S & P 500) put in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term cycle (began in late November 2008) high on 1-6-09, and, GDX/HUI/NEM/XAU put in a bearish double top on 12-17-08/1-2-09, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
Shortly after an intraday countertrend Wave B type move, I'll look to enter an ultra short day trade, using SDS/TWM/QID or DUG/SRS. It'll probably be DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF) or TWM (UltraShort Russell 2000 (RUT) ETF).
Broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) experienced a very bearish huge gap down at yesterday 1-8's open, from 1-7's close at 55.54, to 1-8's open at 51.31, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which is keeping SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) bearish breakaway upside gap at 934.70 from 1-7's open company, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish
+2.52% versus the SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-9, which is a very short term bearish indication, and, it was super bearish prior to today, at -7.15% on 1-8, +2.14% on 1-7, -1.67% on 1-6, -0.68% on 1-5, -1.16% on 1-2, +0.42% on 12-31, -2.55% on 12-30, -0.04% on 12-29, -0.70% on 12-26, +0.19% on 12-24, -0.28% on 12-23.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
GDX/HUI/NEM/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) appear to be in Wave 5 down of the short term Wave A downcycle since 1-2-09, see GDX at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Wave A appears to be doing an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, which is a powerful timing tool.
GDX/HUI/NEM/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) put in a bearish double top on 12-17-08/1-2-09, and, are now declining/in a Wave 4 monthly downcycle, NEM is in a Wave 2 monthly downcycle. HUI peaked on 12-17-08, while GDX/NEM/XAU peaked on 1-2-09. HUI is in Wave C of a Wave 4 monthly downcycle since 12-17-08, GDX/XAU are in Wave A of a Wave 4 monthly downcycle since 1-2-09, and, reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM is in Wave A of a Wave 2 monthly downcycle since 1-2-09.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF)/HUI/XAU did an entire monthly cycle (very short but huge eight session Wave 1 monthly upcycle and a Wave 2 monthly downcycle) from late October until late November 2008, see GDX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
NEM created a bearish breakaway upside gap at 39.55 at 1-7's open, and, at 40.33 at 1-5's open, and, I'll have to see what NEM's downside gaps are. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 28.67, 25.41, and 23.23, some or all of which should get filled in the next week or two. GDX created an upside gap at 33.32 at 1-5's open, that's a bearish breakaway upside gap, and, created another one on 1-7 at 32.61.
GDX's (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) Wave 4 monthly downcycle since 1-2-09 might bottom at 22 to 23, shortly after filling the downside gap at 23.23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Often important cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gap filling action has been completed.
The gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator was bullish today, at
+0.57% versus the XAU today/on 1-9, and, is extremely bearish recently, at +2.02% on 1-8, -2.85% on 1-7, -0.37% on 1-6, +0.03% on 1-5, -0.57% on 1-2, -0.53% on 12-31, -1.01% on 12-30, +1.71% on 12-29, -0.57% on 12-26, +0.16% on 12-24, -1.60% on 12-23, -0.95% on 12-22.
The oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was very bullish today, at +1.33% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-9, and, is extremely bearish recently, at -1.23% on 1-8, +1.14% on 1-7, -1.66% on 1-6, -0.66% on 1-5, -1.83% on 1-2, +0.55% on 12-31, -1.66% on 12-30, -0.83% on 12-29.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU (the major breakout is more obvious in the XAU's chart) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
It'll take time to inflate the world out of this deflationary mess/credit crisis. Yes, gold might hit $2000+ in about 10 years, but, it might hit $350-$400 next year, when it finally bottoms. Remember that HUI/XAU bottomed in late 2000, whereas, gold bottomed in April 2001 and silver didn't bottom until late 2001. The metals LAG.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
SPX (S & P 500) did a Wave A type crash early on, after a slight pop at the open, then did countertrend Wave B action most of the remainder of the session, which made day trading ultra short difficult, and, late in the session SPX (S & P 500) did a little intraday Wave A type move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX (S & P 500) put in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term cycle (began in late November 2008) high on 1-6-09, and, GDX/HUI/NEM/XAU put in a bearish double top on 12-17-08/1-2-09, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
Shortly after an intraday countertrend Wave B type move, I'll look to enter an ultra short day trade, using SDS/TWM/QID or DUG/SRS. It'll probably be DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF) or TWM (UltraShort Russell 2000 (RUT) ETF).
Broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) experienced a very bearish huge gap down at yesterday 1-8's open, from 1-7's close at 55.54, to 1-8's open at 51.31, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which is keeping SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) bearish breakaway upside gap at 934.70 from 1-7's open company, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish
+2.52% versus the SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-9, which is a very short term bearish indication, and, it was super bearish prior to today, at -7.15% on 1-8, +2.14% on 1-7, -1.67% on 1-6, -0.68% on 1-5, -1.16% on 1-2, +0.42% on 12-31, -2.55% on 12-30, -0.04% on 12-29, -0.70% on 12-26, +0.19% on 12-24, -0.28% on 12-23.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
GDX/HUI/NEM/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) appear to be in Wave 5 down of the short term Wave A downcycle since 1-2-09, see GDX at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Wave A appears to be doing an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, which is a powerful timing tool.
GDX/HUI/NEM/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) put in a bearish double top on 12-17-08/1-2-09, and, are now declining/in a Wave 4 monthly downcycle, NEM is in a Wave 2 monthly downcycle. HUI peaked on 12-17-08, while GDX/NEM/XAU peaked on 1-2-09. HUI is in Wave C of a Wave 4 monthly downcycle since 12-17-08, GDX/XAU are in Wave A of a Wave 4 monthly downcycle since 1-2-09, and, reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM is in Wave A of a Wave 2 monthly downcycle since 1-2-09.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF)/HUI/XAU did an entire monthly cycle (very short but huge eight session Wave 1 monthly upcycle and a Wave 2 monthly downcycle) from late October until late November 2008, see GDX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
NEM created a bearish breakaway upside gap at 39.55 at 1-7's open, and, at 40.33 at 1-5's open, and, I'll have to see what NEM's downside gaps are. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 28.67, 25.41, and 23.23, some or all of which should get filled in the next week or two. GDX created an upside gap at 33.32 at 1-5's open, that's a bearish breakaway upside gap, and, created another one on 1-7 at 32.61.
GDX's (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) Wave 4 monthly downcycle since 1-2-09 might bottom at 22 to 23, shortly after filling the downside gap at 23.23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Often important cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gap filling action has been completed.
The gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator was bullish today, at
+0.57% versus the XAU today/on 1-9, and, is extremely bearish recently, at +2.02% on 1-8, -2.85% on 1-7, -0.37% on 1-6, +0.03% on 1-5, -0.57% on 1-2, -0.53% on 12-31, -1.01% on 12-30, +1.71% on 12-29, -0.57% on 12-26, +0.16% on 12-24, -1.60% on 12-23, -0.95% on 12-22.
The oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was very bullish today, at +1.33% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-9, and, is extremely bearish recently, at -1.23% on 1-8, +1.14% on 1-7, -1.66% on 1-6, -0.66% on 1-5, -1.83% on 1-2, +0.55% on 12-31, -1.66% on 12-30, -0.83% on 12-29.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU (the major breakout is more obvious in the XAU's chart) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
It'll take time to inflate the world out of this deflationary mess/credit crisis. Yes, gold might hit $2000+ in about 10 years, but, it might hit $350-$400 next year, when it finally bottoms. Remember that HUI/XAU bottomed in late 2000, whereas, gold bottomed in April 2001 and silver didn't bottom until late 2001. The metals LAG.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:50 PM
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