SPX's (S & P 500) Action Today Confirms That 1-6-09 Was A Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High
SPX's (S & P 500) action today confirms that 1-6-09 was a (probably/very likely countertrend Wave B) minor intermediate term cycle high (late November 2008 cycle low), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. So, SPX (S & P 500) is in a big short term Wave A type downcycle since 1-6-09.
GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high today, for the cycle that began on 1-15-09 (Wave 5 monthly upcycle began), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, note the bearish large spike on today 1-20's bearish red (close below the open) candle. Also, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
Gold might experience a major breakout this week (might decisively break the downtrend since 3-17-08), see the gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, see also
http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/01/its-hard-now-to-imagine-how-gold-wont.html.
Tomorrow 1-21, watch GDX's (Gold Miners ETF) downside gap at 29.13 from Friday 1-16's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, watch reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's downside gap at
37.83 from today 1-20's open, that might get filled. Obviously, it'll be more bullish if those downside gaps don't get filled and they end up being bullish breakaway gaps.
The reliable gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator was a super bullish +4.26% versus the XAU today/on 1-20, and, it looks like GDX/HUI/XAU will bottom early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, since they appeared to be in Wave 5 down of the short term Wave 2 downcycle (began mid session today 1-20) at session's end. A short term Wave 2 downcycle typically lasts one to three sessions, but, might be less than a session in this case.
The fact that SPX (S & P 500) is very oversold (RSI, Stochastics, William's %R), and, will probably become extremely oversold early tomorrow, jives with GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) probably putting in a short term Wave 2 cycle low early tomorrow, then, probably bouncing substantially, because, they'll be in Wave 3 up of the Wave 5 monthly upcycle since 1-15-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Wave 1 of Wave 5 (mid session 1-15 to mid session today 1-20, it lasted about two sessions) shot up like a rocket, and, Wave 3 of Wave 5 should be larger and possibly even stronger.
Tomorrow 1-21 I'll look to day trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF) long. Today was a difficult day to day trade, partly because of the major distraction created by the inauguration. GDX has upside gaps at 33.32 from 1-5's open, and, created one on 1-7 at 32.61. These upside gaps should get filled this week.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +3.34% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-20, which is a very short term bearish indication, and, it was extremely bullish prior to today, at -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15, +2.28% on 1-14, +1.24% on 1-13, +1.89% on 1-12, +2.52% on 1-9.
The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX reveals an unusually large rise in fear today (+22.86%), relative to the very sharp SPX decline of -5.28%, which is an unusually large +17.58% rise in fear/+17.58% rise in the SPX wall of worry, that points to significant and possibly severe SPX weakness early on Wednesday.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
The XOM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.78% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16, it was +1.55% on 1-15, it was +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.
In the near future I also plan to start trading an income type ETF short term (a few days or just overnight). Some income type ETFs are as volatile as rockets (COY, EAD, PHK, HYG, JNK, etc). A reader suggested TLT (20 Year Treasury ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tlt, yield right now is about 3.50%, as best as I can tell based on a very quick look at Yahoo's info) a few months ago, which is a definite possibility, and, is one of the safer, more calm, low volatility income type ETF s.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
NEM created a bearish breakaway upside gap at 37.04 at 1-12's open (filled), one at 39.55 at 1-7's open (filled), and, one at 40.33 (filled) at 1-5's open. NEM has a downside gap at 37.83 from today 1-20's open.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 29.13, 28.67 (it got filled 1-13), 25.41, and 23.23. GDX created an upside gap at 33.32 at 1-5's open, that's a bearish breakaway upside gap, and, created ones on 1-7 at 32.61 and on 1-12 at 31.31 (filled).
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU (the major breakout is more obvious in the XAU's chart) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high today, for the cycle that began on 1-15-09 (Wave 5 monthly upcycle began), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, note the bearish large spike on today 1-20's bearish red (close below the open) candle. Also, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
Gold might experience a major breakout this week (might decisively break the downtrend since 3-17-08), see the gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, see also
http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/01/its-hard-now-to-imagine-how-gold-wont.html.
Tomorrow 1-21, watch GDX's (Gold Miners ETF) downside gap at 29.13 from Friday 1-16's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, watch reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's downside gap at
37.83 from today 1-20's open, that might get filled. Obviously, it'll be more bullish if those downside gaps don't get filled and they end up being bullish breakaway gaps.
The reliable gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator was a super bullish +4.26% versus the XAU today/on 1-20, and, it looks like GDX/HUI/XAU will bottom early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, since they appeared to be in Wave 5 down of the short term Wave 2 downcycle (began mid session today 1-20) at session's end. A short term Wave 2 downcycle typically lasts one to three sessions, but, might be less than a session in this case.
The fact that SPX (S & P 500) is very oversold (RSI, Stochastics, William's %R), and, will probably become extremely oversold early tomorrow, jives with GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) probably putting in a short term Wave 2 cycle low early tomorrow, then, probably bouncing substantially, because, they'll be in Wave 3 up of the Wave 5 monthly upcycle since 1-15-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Wave 1 of Wave 5 (mid session 1-15 to mid session today 1-20, it lasted about two sessions) shot up like a rocket, and, Wave 3 of Wave 5 should be larger and possibly even stronger.
Tomorrow 1-21 I'll look to day trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF) long. Today was a difficult day to day trade, partly because of the major distraction created by the inauguration. GDX has upside gaps at 33.32 from 1-5's open, and, created one on 1-7 at 32.61. These upside gaps should get filled this week.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +3.34% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-20, which is a very short term bearish indication, and, it was extremely bullish prior to today, at -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15, +2.28% on 1-14, +1.24% on 1-13, +1.89% on 1-12, +2.52% on 1-9.
The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX reveals an unusually large rise in fear today (+22.86%), relative to the very sharp SPX decline of -5.28%, which is an unusually large +17.58% rise in fear/+17.58% rise in the SPX wall of worry, that points to significant and possibly severe SPX weakness early on Wednesday.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
The XOM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.78% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16, it was +1.55% on 1-15, it was +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.
In the near future I also plan to start trading an income type ETF short term (a few days or just overnight). Some income type ETFs are as volatile as rockets (COY, EAD, PHK, HYG, JNK, etc). A reader suggested TLT (20 Year Treasury ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tlt, yield right now is about 3.50%, as best as I can tell based on a very quick look at Yahoo's info) a few months ago, which is a definite possibility, and, is one of the safer, more calm, low volatility income type ETF s.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
NEM created a bearish breakaway upside gap at 37.04 at 1-12's open (filled), one at 39.55 at 1-7's open (filled), and, one at 40.33 (filled) at 1-5's open. NEM has a downside gap at 37.83 from today 1-20's open.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 29.13, 28.67 (it got filled 1-13), 25.41, and 23.23. GDX created an upside gap at 33.32 at 1-5's open, that's a bearish breakaway upside gap, and, created ones on 1-7 at 32.61 and on 1-12 at 31.31 (filled).
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU (the major breakout is more obvious in the XAU's chart) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, TAN, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:01 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home