GDX/HUI/XAU Put In A Very Short Term Wave 3 Cycle High Today 1-26-09
GDX/HUI/XAU put in a very short term Wave 3 cycle high today 1-26-09, of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 (Wave 5 of the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. Note the large bearish spike on HUI's red (close below the open) candle today 1-26.
Near session's end GDX/HUI/XAU entered Wave C of Wave 4 down of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. So, severe weakness is likely for much of tomorrow 1-27's session.
One can tell by the five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator that GDX/HUI/XAU's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 probably still has substantial upside, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The third/final Wave 5 upcycle of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 should be a spectacular huge blowoff spike move, that will probably begin tomorrow, so, buckle up!
Gold didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal today 1-26, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, but, it has a good shot of doing so/probably will this week. Gold appears to have broken out on Friday 1-23-09, and, followed through to the upside today 1-26, which is a good sign.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the potential Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.35% versus the XAU today/on 1-26, it was -0.32% on 1-23, +2.53% on 1-22, -0.47% on 1-21, +4.26% on 1-20, -2.75% on 1-16, +0.25% on 1-15, +3.66% on 1-14.
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) filled it's upside gaps at 840.24 and 850.12, today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, WMT filled it's upside gap at 48.87 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, but, SPX probably/very likely remains in a Wave A monthly downcycle since 1-6-09, and, WMT probably/very likely remains in a Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008, partly because the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator remains extremely bearish recently, at -0.04% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-26, -1.60% on 1-23, +0.97% on 1-22, -7.16% on 1-21, +3.34% on 1-20, -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15.
Also, looking at WMT's daily chart, it probably needs to do Wave 5 down of the Wave 5 downcycle since mid January (Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
On Tuesday I'll look to day trade ultra short via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, XOM Lead Indicator - -2.11% versus the XOI today/on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23), SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or TWM (UltraShort RUT ETF), QID (UltraShort NDX ETF), SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF), SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials ETF), etc.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.
There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low this week (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).
NEM has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 40.90 and 37.83. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (-3.34%) reveals a sharp rise in complacency today, since SPX rose a significant +0.56%, which is a sharp +2.78% rise in complacency/-2.78% decline in the SPX wall of worry, that points to severe SPX weakness early on Tuesday.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 871.79 and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.11% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, it was -1.43% on 1-21, +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Near session's end GDX/HUI/XAU entered Wave C of Wave 4 down of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. So, severe weakness is likely for much of tomorrow 1-27's session.
One can tell by the five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator that GDX/HUI/XAU's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 probably still has substantial upside, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The third/final Wave 5 upcycle of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 should be a spectacular huge blowoff spike move, that will probably begin tomorrow, so, buckle up!
Gold didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal today 1-26, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, but, it has a good shot of doing so/probably will this week. Gold appears to have broken out on Friday 1-23-09, and, followed through to the upside today 1-26, which is a good sign.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the potential Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.35% versus the XAU today/on 1-26, it was -0.32% on 1-23, +2.53% on 1-22, -0.47% on 1-21, +4.26% on 1-20, -2.75% on 1-16, +0.25% on 1-15, +3.66% on 1-14.
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) filled it's upside gaps at 840.24 and 850.12, today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, WMT filled it's upside gap at 48.87 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, but, SPX probably/very likely remains in a Wave A monthly downcycle since 1-6-09, and, WMT probably/very likely remains in a Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008, partly because the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator remains extremely bearish recently, at -0.04% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-26, -1.60% on 1-23, +0.97% on 1-22, -7.16% on 1-21, +3.34% on 1-20, -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15.
Also, looking at WMT's daily chart, it probably needs to do Wave 5 down of the Wave 5 downcycle since mid January (Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
On Tuesday I'll look to day trade ultra short via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, XOM Lead Indicator - -2.11% versus the XOI today/on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23), SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or TWM (UltraShort RUT ETF), QID (UltraShort NDX ETF), SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF), SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials ETF), etc.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.
There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low this week (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).
NEM has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 40.90 and 37.83. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (-3.34%) reveals a sharp rise in complacency today, since SPX rose a significant +0.56%, which is a sharp +2.78% rise in complacency/-2.78% decline in the SPX wall of worry, that points to severe SPX weakness early on Tuesday.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 871.79 and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.11% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, it was -1.43% on 1-21, +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:40 PM
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