SPX (S & P 500) and Reliable Broad Market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) Probably Didn't Bottom Yet
SPX (S & P 500) and reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) probably didn't bottom yet, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see WMT at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
One has to look at WMT's chart (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) to see that they very likely didn't bottom yet, and, after knowing that today 1-23's WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.60% versus SPX (S & P 500), it becomes obvious.
Also, the fact that SPX again failed to fill yesterday's upside gap at 840.24 (created at the open), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, is another sign that it very likely didn't bottom yet, as is the fact that WMT failed to fill today's upside gap at 48.87, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, so, it's a bearish breakaway type gap.
Also, reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the current substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.
One exception to the rule that I know of is GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM (probably also the metals now, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/01/gold-appears-to-have-broken-out-in.html). There's a relatively small number of quality gold/silver stocks that one should consider trading or (especially) investing in, or, simply buy GDX (Gold Miners Index ETF).
Some names, not recommendations, are NEM, GG, ABX, AEM, EGO, IAG, SLW, SSRI, PAAS, HL. NEM is good partly because it's timely now, because, it reliably leads to the upside, and, the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late October 2008) is very young.
There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low next week (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 840.24, 850.12, 871.79 and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 48.87, 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54.
GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 5 (began 1-15-09, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) of the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle since late October 2008 could be a two weekish or less short term upcycle, instead of a three to four weekish monthly upcycle. The huge Wave 5 type spiking action that's occurring since 1-15-09 makes that a likely scenario.
Early today (scary sluggish action early on after a very early spike, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) I day traded GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and made a little over 5 cents/share = $50+ per 1000 shares traded. Trading 10,000 to 20,000 shares that's $500 to $1000+, which is still significant for one trade.
Because it's Wave 5 type spiking/peaking action since 1-15-09, of the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle since late October 2008, ascertaining entry and exit points is very difficult/counterintuitive now intraday, since there's a lot of spiking action going on, with brief very shallow downcycles, making entry points very difficult, and, the amount of time for decision making is very limited, so, one has to be very nimble now when day trading.
On Monday I'll look to day trade ultra short via SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or TWM (UltraShort RUT ETF), QID (UltraShort NDX ETF), SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF), SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials ETF), etc.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low (cycle began 1-20) on 1-21-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/galle.ry.html?%24gdx. GDX/HUI/XAU have a bullish large inverse spike on 1-21's candle.
GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high on 1-20, for the cycle that began on 1-15-09 (Wave 5 monthly upcycle began), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, note the bearish large spike on 1-20's bearish red (close below the open) candle. Also, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.32% versus the XAU today/on 1-23, it was +2.53% on 1-22, -0.47% on 1-21, +4.26% on 1-20, -2.75% on 1-16, +0.25% on 1-15, +3.66% on 1-14, -2.41% on 1-13, +3.59% on 1-12, +0.57% on 1-9, +2.02% on 1-8.
Today 1-23 GDX (Gold Miners ETF) filled upside gaps at 33.32 from 1-5's open, and, the one on 1-7 at 32.61.
NEM has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 40.90 and 37.83. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-23, it was +0.97% on 1-22, it was a super bearish -7.16% on 1-21, +3.34% on 1-20, -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15, +2.28% on 1-14, +1.24% on 1-13, +1.89% on 1-12, +2.52% on 1-9.
The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (-0.06%) reveals a modest rise in fear today, since SPX rose a significant +0.54%, which is a modest +0.48% rise in fear/+0.48% rise in the SPX wall of worry, that points to modest SPX strength early on Monday.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.41% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, it was -1.43% on 1-21, +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.
In the near future I also plan to start trading an income type ETF short term (a few days or just overnight). Some income type ETFs are as volatile as rockets (PFF, COY, EAD, PHK, HYG, JNK, etc). A reader suggested TLT (20 Year Treasury ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tlt, yield right now is about 3.50%, as best as I can tell based on a very quick look at Yahoo's info) a few months ago, which is a definite possibility, and, is one of the safer, more calm, low volatility income type ETF s.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
One has to look at WMT's chart (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) to see that they very likely didn't bottom yet, and, after knowing that today 1-23's WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.60% versus SPX (S & P 500), it becomes obvious.
Also, the fact that SPX again failed to fill yesterday's upside gap at 840.24 (created at the open), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, is another sign that it very likely didn't bottom yet, as is the fact that WMT failed to fill today's upside gap at 48.87, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, so, it's a bearish breakaway type gap.
Also, reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the current substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.
One exception to the rule that I know of is GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM (probably also the metals now, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/01/gold-appears-to-have-broken-out-in.html). There's a relatively small number of quality gold/silver stocks that one should consider trading or (especially) investing in, or, simply buy GDX (Gold Miners Index ETF).
Some names, not recommendations, are NEM, GG, ABX, AEM, EGO, IAG, SLW, SSRI, PAAS, HL. NEM is good partly because it's timely now, because, it reliably leads to the upside, and, the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (began in late October 2008) is very young.
There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low next week (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 840.24, 850.12, 871.79 and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 48.87, 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54.
GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 5 (began 1-15-09, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) of the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle since late October 2008 could be a two weekish or less short term upcycle, instead of a three to four weekish monthly upcycle. The huge Wave 5 type spiking action that's occurring since 1-15-09 makes that a likely scenario.
Early today (scary sluggish action early on after a very early spike, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) I day traded GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and made a little over 5 cents/share = $50+ per 1000 shares traded. Trading 10,000 to 20,000 shares that's $500 to $1000+, which is still significant for one trade.
Because it's Wave 5 type spiking/peaking action since 1-15-09, of the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle since late October 2008, ascertaining entry and exit points is very difficult/counterintuitive now intraday, since there's a lot of spiking action going on, with brief very shallow downcycles, making entry points very difficult, and, the amount of time for decision making is very limited, so, one has to be very nimble now when day trading.
On Monday I'll look to day trade ultra short via SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or TWM (UltraShort RUT ETF), QID (UltraShort NDX ETF), SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF), SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials ETF), etc.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low (cycle began 1-20) on 1-21-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/galle.ry.html?%24gdx. GDX/HUI/XAU have a bullish large inverse spike on 1-21's candle.
GDX/HUI/XAU put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high on 1-20, for the cycle that began on 1-15-09 (Wave 5 monthly upcycle began), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, note the bearish large spike on 1-20's bearish red (close below the open) candle. Also, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.32% versus the XAU today/on 1-23, it was +2.53% on 1-22, -0.47% on 1-21, +4.26% on 1-20, -2.75% on 1-16, +0.25% on 1-15, +3.66% on 1-14, -2.41% on 1-13, +3.59% on 1-12, +0.57% on 1-9, +2.02% on 1-8.
Today 1-23 GDX (Gold Miners ETF) filled upside gaps at 33.32 from 1-5's open, and, the one on 1-7 at 32.61.
NEM has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 40.90 and 37.83. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.60% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-23, it was +0.97% on 1-22, it was a super bearish -7.16% on 1-21, +3.34% on 1-20, -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15, +2.28% on 1-14, +1.24% on 1-13, +1.89% on 1-12, +2.52% on 1-9.
The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (-0.06%) reveals a modest rise in fear today, since SPX rose a significant +0.54%, which is a modest +0.48% rise in fear/+0.48% rise in the SPX wall of worry, that points to modest SPX strength early on Monday.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.41% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, it was -1.43% on 1-21, +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.
In the near future I also plan to start trading an income type ETF short term (a few days or just overnight). Some income type ETFs are as volatile as rockets (PFF, COY, EAD, PHK, HYG, JNK, etc). A reader suggested TLT (20 Year Treasury ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tlt, yield right now is about 3.50%, as best as I can tell based on a very quick look at Yahoo's info) a few months ago, which is a definite possibility, and, is one of the safer, more calm, low volatility income type ETF s.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, TAN, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:23 PM
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