Trade the Cycles

Friday, January 23, 2009

Gold Appears To Have Broken Out In A Major Way Today

Gold appears to have broken out in a major way today, see the gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, breaking it's multi month downtrend since 3-17-08. It isn't apparent in the second weekly view chart, because, it's logarithmic. One HAS to view linear charts to know what's going on. This means that the $681 cycle low in late October 2008 was probably a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.

Gold might even hit a 5%+ follow through major buy signal today 1-23-09, but, I'll have to chart it, unless it's obvious by session's end.

Keep in mind that this is my preliminary thinking, and, a 5%+ follow through major buy signal must occur before Trade the Cycles turns bullish on gold. Human opinions are meaningless regarding timing major cycles. Cycle trendline major buy/sell signals completely filter out human noise.

GDX/HUI/XAU and reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM are going bananas today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, which makes sense cyclewise, since this is a Wave 5 type move since 1-15-09.

I have a significant NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) position in an IRA, so, I'm definitely benefitting from the GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM explosion since late October 2008, when a five to seven year Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market very likely began. NEM is leading to the upside so far today 1-23-09, up +8.40% right now on strong volume of 5.84 million shares.

GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 5 (began 1-15-09, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) of the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle since late October 2008 could be a two weekish or less short term upcycle, instead of a three to four weekish monthly upcycle. The huge Wave 5 type spiking action that's occurring since 1-15-09 makes that a likely scenario.

Early today (scary sluggish action early on after a very early spike, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) I day traded GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and made a little over 5 cents/share = $50+ per 1000 shares traded. Trading 10,000 to 20,000 shares that's $500 to $1000+, which is still significant for one trade.

Because it's Wave 5 type spiking/peaking action since 1-15-09, of the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle since late October 2008, ascertaining entry and exit points is very difficult/counterintuitive now intraday, since there's a lot of spiking action going on, with brief very shallow downcycles, making entry points very difficult, and, the amount of time for decision making is very limited, so, one has to be very nimble.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

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