GDX/HUI/XAU & Gold/Silver Thoughts and Info/Analysis
Since GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) and NEM have been extremely strong since late October 2008 (they've more than doubled, 100%+ gain), when a five to seven year Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market and a Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle began, this final Wave 5 short term upcycle since 1-15-09 (probably will be about two weeks (lasting another week or so), not three to four weeks, which is why I call it a short term upcycle and not a monthly upcycle), of the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle, has been extremely strong.
Also, the final Wave 5 of the GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) big Wave 5 short term upcycle since 1-15-09 (they were in Wave 3 of Wave 5 at Friday 1-23's close), that will mark the end/peak of the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008, should be a spectacular Wave 5 type blowoff spike move, that will leave a large bearish spike on GDX/HUI/XAU's candle after they peak.
It looks like Wave 5 of Wave 3 (since 1-21-09) of the big Wave 5 short term upcycle since 1-15-09 will peak on Monday (up down up down pattern since early 1-21-09), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
Cyclewise Monday 1-26 should be another strong day (Wave 5 of Wave 3 (since 1-21-09) type move), though it could be a relatively brief large early spike followed by severe weakness (metals tend to lag), since the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.60% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) on Friday 1-23-09.
Since GDX/HUI/XAU lead the metals, the metals are likely to explode, and, the explosion probably began on Friday, when gold probably broke it's multi month downtrend since 3-17-08 (should follow through on Monday and maybe Tuesday, possibly triggering a 5% major buy signal), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. It isn't apparent in the second weekly view chart, because, it's logarithmic. One HAS to view linear charts to know what's going on. This means that the $681 cycle low in late October 2008 was probably a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the potential Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Also, the final Wave 5 of the GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) big Wave 5 short term upcycle since 1-15-09 (they were in Wave 3 of Wave 5 at Friday 1-23's close), that will mark the end/peak of the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008, should be a spectacular Wave 5 type blowoff spike move, that will leave a large bearish spike on GDX/HUI/XAU's candle after they peak.
It looks like Wave 5 of Wave 3 (since 1-21-09) of the big Wave 5 short term upcycle since 1-15-09 will peak on Monday (up down up down pattern since early 1-21-09), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
Cyclewise Monday 1-26 should be another strong day (Wave 5 of Wave 3 (since 1-21-09) type move), though it could be a relatively brief large early spike followed by severe weakness (metals tend to lag), since the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.60% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) on Friday 1-23-09.
Since GDX/HUI/XAU lead the metals, the metals are likely to explode, and, the explosion probably began on Friday, when gold probably broke it's multi month downtrend since 3-17-08 (should follow through on Monday and maybe Tuesday, possibly triggering a 5% major buy signal), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. It isn't apparent in the second weekly view chart, because, it's logarithmic. One HAS to view linear charts to know what's going on. This means that the $681 cycle low in late October 2008 was probably a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the potential Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, TAN, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:41 PM
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