Trade the Cycles

Tuesday, February 28, 2006

NEM Lead Indicator = -1.69% Vs The XAU Today

And the XAU failed to fill it's upside gap from today's open at 135.67. Both obviously bearish signs, so tomorrow should be a very weak session. NEM and the XAU took out their cycle lows from two weeks ago, confirming that they were Wave A short term cycle lows and not Wave 4 minor intermediate term cycle lows. HUI should soon take out it's Wave A short term cycle low. There should be another 10-15% of downside before Wave 4's Wave C short term downcycle and therefore Wave 4 bottom. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs2Cw14&c= http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The XAU Is Trying To Fill It's Upside Gap Created At Today's Open

At 135.67 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= It's doubtful that it will fill the upside gap given a very bearish NEM Lead Indicator at about -2.00% vs the XAU right now. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

...............................Just Watch NEM

The NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish yesterday at -2.26% vs the XAU and remains so today at -1.25% vs the XAU right now. Not surprisingly the expected ABC correction scenario appears to be occurring and the cycle lows two weeks ago were in fact Wave A short term cycle lows not the start of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle. They occurred too far above the major upcycle trendlines to be likely Wave 4 cycle lows. NEM and the XAU are racing toward their downside gaps. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps to fill at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 48.75 from 12-7 and the XAU fills it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 Wave 4 should bottom. Based on that and the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI (was 240-250), 47-49 for NEM (was 45-47), and 117-122 for the XAU (was 112-117). XAU Implied Volatility rose less in % terms (to 35.925 on 2-27 from 35.260 on 2-24) than the XAU fell yesterday (-3.45%) which was a significant rise in complacency that portends some weakness today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) rose an unusually large > 6% today to 1.03355 from 0.91840 yesterday, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends some weakness today. Also, the Fed isn't spiking the index fund trader punch this week, with only $2 Billion in Repos yesterday and $3.5 Billion so far today: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Monday, February 27, 2006

NEM Down -5.71% And NEM Lead Indicator = -2.26% Vs The XAU Today

There should be another -10-15% downside before the Wave C short term downcycle and the Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle since 1-31-06 bottom. Shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 48.75 from 12-7 and the XAU fills it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 Wave 4 should bottom. Based on that and the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI (was 240-250), 47-49 for NEM (was 45-47), and 117-122 for the XAU (was 112-117). http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Newmont Mining (NEM) Disappoints And Wave C Short Term Downcycle

Now we know why many NEM execs sold in early February: http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_3551825 The Wave C short term downcycle probably began last Wednesday for HUI/XAU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) and on Friday for NEM. NEM is down -4.68% right now vs -2.92% for the XAU, so the NEM Lead Indicator is obviously very bearish. The parabolic/sharply declining Wave C short term downcycle of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle (since 1-31-06) is such a dominant factor right now that the indicators other than maybe the NEM Lead Indicator aren't that important right now. The main factor today is obviously NEM's earnings miss. The XAU Put/Call Ratio for the March expiration fell to 0.91840 from 0.92033 on Friday which portends some weakness today. XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.09% to 35.260 on Friday 2-24 from 35.650 on 2-23 versus a +2.53% rise in the XAU on 2-24, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.44% rise in fear (-1.09% + +2.53% = -+1.44%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +1.44%, therefore fear rose by +1.44%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Monday 2-27's session. Fed Credit to index fund traders grew by only $2 Billion so far today: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Sunday, February 26, 2006

................................Weekly Update Ready

At http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See 1 year charts that show the likely Elliot Wave points for the major upcycle since 5-16-05 and see the 1 month NEM chart dated 2-24-06 for Wave 4's Elliot Wave count. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you. Ciao

........................Disclaimer

Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered investment advisor. Investing in stocks involves risk. Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered broker or dealer. Each investor has to ascertain what percentage if any of one's investments should be allocated to growth stocks or gold/silver stocks. Please see a financial planner, registered investment advisor or at least do your homework and decide what is right for your situation. Growth stocks and gold/silver stocks tend to be extremely volatile which creates opportunities but also can be very painful and risky. Each investor must take complete responsibility for his or her investing actions. Joe Ferrazzano should be considered as one source of information out of many from which to derive a decision on investing.

Saturday, February 25, 2006

.......New Charts Uploaded Including THE Chart

See first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for reliable lead indicator NEM's 1 month chart showing the Elliot Wave Count for the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 down since 1-31-06. Monday 2-13 was probably NEM's Wave A down cycle low for Wave 4 and NOT the beginning of the major upcycle's Wave 5 because HUI/NEM/XAU's cycle lows occurred too far above the major upcycle trendlines to be Wave 4 cycle lows. Also, could the considerable excesses of Wave 3 be worked off in only nine sessions? Very unlikely. It appears that each of Wave 4's Waves will last about two weeks, for an approximate 6 week correction that began with Wave 3 cycle highs on 1-31-06. So, Wave 5 should begin in mid March, which is exactly when it began in the previous parabolic major upcycle in 2003 (on March 13, 2003). My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Friday, February 24, 2006

..............XAU Upside Gap Filling Action

The XAU is trying to fill it's upside gap at 141.76 from yesterday, so the Wave B short term upcycle of a likely ABC Wave 4 minor int term downcycle lives until proven otherwise, which is strongly supported by reliable lead indicator NEM making higher highs today and outperforming the XAU by +0.19%, and outperformed by a very bullish +1.72% yesterday which correctly portended strength today. The latest COT data http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm points to some modest strength next week in gold and some modest weakness in silver. The COT data in recent weeks has been modestly bullish which supports the Wave B scenario rather than the "lows are in " scenario. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

...............Wave B Short Term Upcycle Lives!

NEM took out the previous high at 57.75 so Wave B lives. NEM just hit 58.00. I imagine that 95%+ of those involved in this market think the lows are already in. They're probably in for a big nasty surprise the next few weeks. Calling tops is a fool's game, the important thing is that yesterday's Wave B 1% short term cycle sell signal indicates that risk is too high to trade long from a short term cycle perspective, especially since a Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle is in effect since 1-31-06. An Elliot Wave 5 long term upcycle of the first cyclical Bull Market of the Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market/very long term upcycle since late 2000 is in effect since 5-10-04 for HUI/NEM/XAU, and, the parabolic part of the long term upcycle, a major intermediate term upcycle, has been in effect since 5-16-05, with it's Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle in effect since 1-31-06.

So, the cycles are Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle, cyclical Bull Market, long term upcycle, major intermediate term upcycle, minor intermediate term upcycle, monthly upcycle, short term upcycle, and very short term upcycle. Each cycle is usually comprised of five Elliot Waves of the next shorter cycle. Each cycle is comprised of an up and down cycle of course, so really the complete cycles are very long term cycle (about 35 years up and down), cyclical cycle (about 7 years), long term cycle (about 2 years), major intermediate term cycle (about 6-12 months), minor intermediate term cycle (a few months), monthly cycle (1-2 months), short term cycle (2-3 weeks), and very short term cycle (a few days to a week). http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Perfect Double Top Occurred Early Today At 57.75

With yesterday's cycle high. The fact that NEM continues to outperform the XAU by a wide margin at +0.50% right now, +1.72% yesterday, and by +0.34% on Wednesday, combined with massive Fed lending to index fund traders, http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE , casts serious doubt on HUI/XAU having begun Wave C two days ago and NEM today, but yesterday's 1% Wave B short term cycle sell signal indicates that there's too much risk to trade long from a short term cycle perspective, and, since this is a Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle since 1-31-06, you shouldn't be aggressively trading long short term anyway, MAYBE a modest long trade short term, prior to the sell signal of course. The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose for a change to 0.92033 from 0.88985 yesterday which correctly portended some probably brief strength today and XAU Implied Volatility portends some weakness today, rising less in % terms than the XAU fell yesterday, to 35.65 from 35.22 on 2-22 vs a -3.32% decline in the XAU yesterday, which is a sharp rise in complacency that portends some weakness today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio's collapse from above 1.30000 for the final Feb value to well below 1.00000 now indicates that a substantial decline is likely soon which should be the Wave C short term downcycle. Many people think the lows are already in which is unlikely because they occurred much too far above the major upcycle trendlines (currently at about 255, 47, and 112 for HUI/NEM/XAU) to be likely Wave 4 cycle lows. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Thursday, February 23, 2006

Wave B 1% Short Term Cycle Sell Signal Occurred Today

Wave B broke down today since a 1% follow through sell signal occurred, which indicates that risk is far too high to trade long from a short term cycle perspective, but doesn't guarantee that HUI/NEM/XAU's Wave B has peaked. The XAU filled it's downside gaps at 138.93 and 137.38 today, and, given that NEM outperformed the XAU by a very bullish +1.72% today and the Fed's massive punch spiking, a sharp rebound is likely tomorrow at some point, possibly after early weakness. Often cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gaps get filled, so a very short term cycle low may have occurred near today's close or will probably occur early tomorrow. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Exceeded Yesterday's Cycle High By 5 Cents

So far and given that NEM outperformed yesterday by +0.34% vs the XAU and is outperforming today by a very bullish +1.60%, there's a good chance that HUI and the XAU will take out yesterday's cycle highs, which means that the Wave B short term upcycle probably lives. The Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle took 7 weeks in the prior parabolic major upcycle in 2003, and it looks like this one will be about that long. The Wave 4 cycle low in 2003 occurred on March 13 and that's about when this one should bottom. Wave 4 began in late January in 2003 as this one did (on 1-31-06). http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Wave C Short Term Downcycle Appears To Have Begun

The apocalyptic parabolic Wave C has probably begun for HUI/NEM/XAU, though the Fed massively spiked the index fund trader punch today as they always seem to do on Thursdays, with $21 Billion in Repos http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE , so a test of yesterday's likely Wave B short term cycle highs is possible and NEM has already approached yesterday's cycle high. The XAU Put/Call Ratio continues to dramatically collapse, which is a major negative for those that think the lows are already in, as is the massive insider selling by NEM execs in early February. The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.88985 from 0.93441 yesterday which correctly portended some weakness today, and, was at a much higher 1.30761 for the final February expiration last Friday, which is a dramatic collapse in the XAU wall of worry that points to substantial weakness soon. The 5 Yahoo chart is a highly useful tool I use to gauge short term and also longer cycles near important turning points: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= In the next week or two HUI, NEM, and the XAU are likely to fall about -15% to 255-265, 47-49, and 117-122. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Top NEM Execs May Be Reading My Stuff

They sold (or reported or both) en masse on 2-3-06, only THREE days after the 1-31-06 Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Cycle Highs for HUI, NEM, and the XAU http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=NEM The list includes the Chairman and the President and appears to be about 12 top execs all selling on the same day or reporting on the same day or both. It looks like they had a meeting and all decided to sell at the same time. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Wave 4's Wave B Short Term Upcycle May Have Peaked Today

The XAU has a perfect double top at 141.95 the past two days: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau that may be it's Wave B short term cycle high. HUI and NEM's Wave B short term upcycle may have peaked today also. The fact that NEM outperformed the XAU by +0.34% today castes some doubt on that, but they definitely appear to have peaked today and I Watch revealed strong NEM sell interest again http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem similar to yesterday's. The Fed's massive punch spiking in recent days has been a major factor propping up many indexes, including SPX, HUI, XAU, etc. and NEM is a component of SPX (S & P 500), so it benefits from index fund buying though SPX 's cycles are clearly different. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

HUI's Wave B Short Term Upcycle May Have Peaked Early Today

HUI made a slightly higher cycle high today http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Ehui that is probably it's Wave B Short Term Upcycle peaking. The 5 day chart is a great example of a cycle rolling over. The NEM Lead Indicator should soon turn negative versus the XAU (is modestly bullish right now), meaning that NEM is leading to the downside, if Wave C has in fact begun, which is the parabolic sharply declining part of the Wave 4 minor int term downcycle since 1-31-06. Even Wave C begins relatively flat though. Ciao. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ Note that NEM hit a Wave A short term cycle low on 2-13 versus HUI/XAU doing so on 2-15 and NEM and the NEM dominated XAU hit potential Wave B short term cycle highs on 2-21 vs 2-22 for HUI. Edit: After I wrote this NEM made a slightly higher cycle high today and the XAU put in a very rare perfect double top with yesterday's cycle high at 141.95. Buckle up!

...........Wave 4's Wave B Short Term Upcycle

And massive Fed Punch Spiking ($18.75 Billion in Repos last Thursday and Fed Credit rose by over $6 Billion the week ending 2-15-06) are the two most important factors right now. Wave B may have peaked very early yesterday. NEM filled yesterday's downside gap early today then filled it's upside gap created today as did the XAU. For the third straight session HUI, NEM, and the XAU spiked very early then declined. The downcycle since early yesterday's spike move appears to be the major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 4's Wave C short term downcycle beginning relatively flat, which means that the next week or two may be a substantial decline.

recent massive punch spiking: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE XAU Implied Volatility rose to 35.185 yesterday from 34.115 vs a +1.23% rise in the XAU yesterday which is a very sharp (3-6)% rise in fear that correctly portended some strength today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio continues to collapse, falling to 0.93441 today from 0.96608 yesterday which is a very sharp rise in complacency that portends some weakness today. The expired February XAU Put/Call Ratio was at 1.30761 on Friday, so the collapse in the XAU Put/Call Ratio is a sign of an impending substantial decline in the XAU which jives with the parabolic Wave C short term downcycle having begun or soon beginning. I suspect that Wave C started early yesterday. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

NEM Lead Indicator At -0.13% Vs The XAU Today

After being a very bearish -1.11% on Friday. Also, the collapse in the XAU Put/Call Ratio from the expired February expiration at 1.30761 on Friday to March's that fell to 0.96608 today, is a sign that the strength that began last week is probably Wave 4's Wave B short term upcycle and not the start of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, because the dramatic decline in the XAU Put/Call Ratio points to substantial weakness soon. It appears that downside gap filling action will occur in the next few days for NEM and the XAU. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Wave B Short Term Upcycle May Have Peaked

Early today shortly after the open because NEM is underperforming the XAU again today by a bearish -0.40% after a very bearish -1.11% on Friday, http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= and NEM/XAU appear to have begun downside gap filling action with new downside gaps created today and the XAU has one at 137.38 from Friday. Another very important factor is that SPX (S & P 500) began a short term downcycle today: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

...........Wave 4's Wave B Short Term Upcycle

And massive Fed Punch Spiking ($18.75 Billion in Repos last Thursday and Fed Credit rose by over $6 Billion the week ending 2-15-06) are the two most important factors right now. Fed Credit fuels SPX traders which moves other stocks/indexes such as HUI, NEM, and the XAU.

The NEM Lead Indicator is near neutral vs the XAU right now. XAU Implied Volatility fell -6.38% to 34.115 on Friday 2-17 from 36.440 on 2-16 versus a +1.13% rise in the XAU on 2-17, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +5.25% rise in complacency (-6.38% + +1.13% = -5.25%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -5.25%, therefore complacency rose by +5.25%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Tuesday 2-21's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio collapsed to 0.96608 today from 1.07156 on Friday which portends strength followed by weakness today. The unusually large > 6% decline is an unusually large rise in complacency that portends brief strength. The collapse in the XAU Put/Call Ratio from the expired February expiration at 1.30761 on Friday to March's that fell below 1.00000 today is a sign that this strength is probably Wave 4's Wave B short term upcycle and not the start of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, because the dramatic decline points to substantial weakness soon. I look at it pre open so no comparison with the XAU can be done. The Fed lent a $7.75 Billion 1 day Repo today ( http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm ). See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Monday, February 20, 2006

.....................Big Picture Elliot Wave Count

See the second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html I see no other interpretation than the one on the chart which indicates that HUI/NEM/XAU are in a Wave 5 long term upcycle since 5-10-04, which is the last Wave of the first cyclical Bull Market of the secular Bull Market/Very Long Term Upcycle that began in October 2000 for NEM/XAU and in November 2000 for HUI. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Secular Bull Market/Very Long Term Upcycle Elliot Wave Count

Elliot Wave indicates that there will be 3 cyclical Bulls (Waves 1, 3, and 5) and two cyclical Bears (Waves 2 and 4) in the 15-20+ year secular Bull that began in late 2000 for HUI/NEM/XAU. So far there have been two long term cycle highs, one in May 2002 and another on Dec 2, 2003 for HUI/NEM and on Jan 6, 2004 for the XAU. They were waves 1 and 3 of the first cyclical Bull, hence this long term upcycle is Wave 5 of the first cyclical Bull and a 12-18+ month cyclical Bear Market corresponding to Wave 2 down of the secular Bull looms after long term cycle highs occur later this year. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Sunday, February 19, 2006

................................Weekly Update Ready

At http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See 1 year charts that show the likely Elliot Wave points for the major upcycle since 5-16-05 and see the 1 month NEM chart dated 2-17-06 for Wave 4's likely Elliot Wave count. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you. Ciao

........................Disclaimer

Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered investment advisor. Investing in stocks involves risk. Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered broker or dealer. Each investor has to ascertain what percentage if any of one's investments should be allocated to growth stocks or gold/silver stocks. Please see a financial planner, registered investment advisor or at least do your homework and decide what is right for your situation. Growth stocks and gold/silver stocks tend to be extremely volatile which creates opportunities but also can be very painful and risky. Each investor must take complete responsibility for his or her investing actions. Joe Ferrazzano should be considered as one source of information out of many from which to derive a decision on investing.

The Latest COT Data (as of 2-14-06) is Bullish Short Term

The latest COT data (as of 2-14-06) is bullish short term since the gold Commercial Traders traded net long and the gold Speculators traded net short, both of which portend strength for part of this week, but the short selling by the gold Commercial Traders and the short covering by the gold Speculators points to some significant weakness. The gold Commercial Traders added 4848 (added 4679 the prior week, sold 15,347 the prior week, added 343, 10,554, 13,289, 6357 the prior four weeks,) long futures and options contracts and added 1765 (covered 9233, 18,701, 8435 the prior three weeks, added 11,306, 4626, 3299 the prior three weeks, covered 2036 the prior week) short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator), but the addition of 1765 short futures/options contracts points to some weakness. The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold a large 10,272 (sold 5910 the prior week, added 44 the prior week, sold 6157 the prior week, added 5541, 2975, 1521 the prior three weeks) long futures and options contracts and covered a large 3511 (added 5621, 1047, 1783, 3743, 9445, 5824 the prior six weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (contrarian indicator), but the short covering points to some weakness. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts). http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Saturday, February 18, 2006

New Wave 4 Cycle Low Target Ranges - Revised Upward

Shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 48.75 from 12-7 and the XAU fills it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 Wave 4 should bottom. Based on that and the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI versus the previous 240-250, 47-49 for NEM versus the previous 45-47, and 117-122 for the XAU versus the previous 112-117. This means that the maximum downside in Wave 4 for the more volatile HUI (than NEM/XAU) is about -27%, since HUI peaked very near 350 in Wave 3. NEM's Wave B short term upcycle of the Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle began at 53.21 on 2-13 shortly after filling it's downside gap at 53.40 from 1-3-06.
http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

.......New Charts Uploaded Including THE Chart

See first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for reliable lead indicator NEM's 1 month chart showing the new Elliot Wave Count for the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 down since 1-31-06. Monday 2-13 was probably NEM's Wave A down cycle low for Wave 4 and NOT the beginning of the major upcycle's Wave 5 because HUI/NEM/XAU's cycle lows occurred too far above the major upcycle trendlines to be Wave 4 cycle lows. Also, could the considerable excesses of Wave 3 be worked off in only nine sessions? Very unlikely. It appears that each of Wave 4's Waves will last about two weeks, for an approximate 6 week correction that began with Wave 3 cycle highs on 1-31-06. So, Wave 5 should begin in mid March, which is exactly when it began in the previous parabolic major upcycle in 2003 (on March 13, 2003).

My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Friday, February 17, 2006

My Elliot Wave Count Was Probably Off By 3 Sessions

I now believe (subject to change) that NEM's Wave A down of the Wave 4 minor int term downcycle since 1-31-06 bottomed on Monday 2-13 instead of on Wednesday 2-8 and that HUI/XAU's Wave A bottomed on Wed 2-15, which means that HUI/NEM/XAU are probably in Wave B up of the Wave 4 minor int term downcycle since 1-31-06. This makes a lot more sense than the anemic one day Wave B up from 2-8 until 2-9, given how long the cycles are now. I think Andy and others will be a lot happier with that count, assuming it's correct of course. Welcome to B up!
http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

...........NEM Filled It's Downside Gap At 56.20

Created at today's open. The XAU will probably fill it's downside gap from today's open at 137.38 in the next session or two because the NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.11% vs the XAU today. Less than an hour after NEM filled it's upside gap from last Friday at 56.53 it hit an intraday cycle high at 57.36 that appears to be a short term cycle high. Often shortly after gaps get filled a cycle high or low will occur. The COT data clearly points to strength, most of which probably occurred this week because the data is three days old when released. A good thing to note is that it clearly hasn't indicated in recent weeks that a major/final cycle high may have occurred on 1-31-06, so, it's very likely that my Elliot Wave count is correct for the major upcycle since 5-16-05, and that it's Wave 5 lies ahead of us in which HUI should rise to 400-450 and maybe even higher. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

..........NEM/XAU Downside Gap Filling Action

NEM and the XAU are trying to fill the downside gaps created at today's open. Wave C's Wave C may have begun early today. Note in the 5 day spx (^GSPC )versus HUI/NEM/XAU chart that downturns in SPX preceded downturns in HUI/NEM/XAU by about an hour, with SPX turning down mid and late session yesterday and early on Wednesday: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EGSPC&l=on&z=m&q=b&a=fs&a=w14&c=nem%2C+%5Ehui%2C+%5Exau
http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

.............Wave B Up Of Wave C May Be Peaking

NEM is underperforming the XAU by a very bearish -1.00% right now, so the major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 4's Wave C's Wave B (I'll have a 1 month chart showing this count) may be peaking today and the apocalypse, Wave C's Wave C, may begin today. NEM filled it's upside gap at 56.53 from last Friday early today. Wave C's Wave C will be the sharply declining phase of the sharply declining phase, which means that a huge decline should occur during the next week or two. Most of the bullishness in the gold/silver stock market should be purged in the next week or two. XAU Implied Volatility portends weakness today, falling over 6% to 36.440 yesterday from 38.780 on Wednesday vs a +2.31% rise in the XAU yesterday, which is a very sharp rise in complacency that portends some weakness today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell to 1.30761 today from 1.30824 yesterday which portends some weakness today. I look at it pre open so no comparison with the XAU can be done. The Fed lent a $5.25 Billion 5 day Repo today after a massive $18.75 Billion in Repos yesterday, once again massive lending on a Thursday, and lended a large $12.75 Billion Repo on Wednesday, so index funds are responsible for much of the strength in recent days( http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm ), but cycles portend a substantial decline during the next week or two. Option expiration today may have contributed to strength also. The primary considerations right now are the Wave 4 minor int term downcycle since 1-31-06 and Wave 4's Wave C short term downcycle since 2-9-06, which is the parabolic/sharply declining part of Wave 4. There is a small chance that the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 bottomed this week and that Wave 5 has begun, which would be confirmed by a 2% buy signal. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Thursday, February 16, 2006

NEM Outperformed The XAU By +0.21% Today

But modestly underperformed late in the session. NEM may fill it's upside gap at 56.53 from last Friday tomorrow. Fed Credit rose by +6.737 Billion in the week ending 2-15-06, which normally would portend strength for the next few days, but if Wave C is in effect then a substantial decline should soon begin. NEM took out yesterday's cycle high by 10 cents, so Wave C's Wave C may have begun today. Without the massive Fed lending the past two days ( http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm ) there wouldn't have been nearly this much strength, and even this strength should quickly fade. Note that the very bullish NEM Lead Indicator at +1.80% vs the XAU yesterday correctly pointed to strength today. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Appears To Have Failed Again To Fill It's Upside Gap

At 56.53 from last Friday, just as it did yesterday, which is a bearish sign. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Got More Strength Thanks To Massive Punch Spiking

NEM just took out yesterday's cycle high by 4 cents so far, so Wave C's Wave C will probably begin today. Without the massive Fed lending the past two days ( http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm ) there wouldn't have been nearly this much strength, and even this strength should quickly fade, similar to what happened yesterday, when NEM fell from 56.36 to 54.55ish very quickly. Note that the very bullish NEM Lead Indicator at +1.80% vs the XAU yesterday correctly pointed to strength today. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Early Strength Was Expected Due To The Very Bullish NEM Lead Indicator

Yesterday at +1.80% vs the XAU. But the fact that the strength has been modest, especially since the NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.80% yesterday vs the XAU, clearly indicates that a downcycle is in effect. This is Wave C's Wave C (since early yesterday) beginning relatively flat, of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 down. Wave C's Wave C is the sharply declining phase of the sharply declining phase, which means that a huge decline should occur during the next week or so. Most of the bullishness in the gold/silver stock market should be purged in the next week. Wave C's Wave C is such a dominant consideration now that the indicators are relatively minor for now. XAU Implied Volatility portends weakness, rising less than 1% to 38.780 yesterday from 38.455 on Tuesday vs a -2.42% decline in the XAU yesterday, which is a significant rise in complacency that portends some weakness today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell to 1.30824 today from 1.33617 yesterday which portends some weakness today. I look at it pre open so no comparison with the XAU can be done. The Fed lent a massive $18 Billion in Repos today, once again massive lending on a Thursday, and lended a large $12.75 Billion Repo yesterday so index funds should soften the decline some today ( http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm ), but cycles portend a substantial decline during the next week. Massive Fed lending to index fund traders isn't helping much which is another sign that a downcycle is in effect. Option expiration on Friday is likely to exacerbate the decline. The primary considerations right now are the Wave 4 minor int term downcycle since 1-31-06 and Wave 4's Wave C short term downcycle since 2-9-06, which is the parabolic/sharply declining part of Wave 4, so don't even think about trading long unless maybe you're a super daredevil and try a very quick day trade, but you really shouldn't be trading long at all right now. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

NEM Outperformed The XAU By +1.80% Today

On top of yesterday's +0.12% and Monday's +1.27% versus the XAU. So, the NEM Lead Indicator is very bullish which is a great sign once the Wave 4 minor int term downcycle since 1-31-06 bottoms, which probably isn't until there's another 10-20% of downside and HUI, NEM, and the XAU reach their major upcycle trendlines, currently at 250, 47, and 112. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for the latest 1 year charts that show the major upcycle trendline. It's possible that those trendlines will turn up, so Wave 4 may bottom above the current major upcycle trendlines. Wave C's Wave B peaked early today (of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 down) so Wave C's Wave C has begun. Wave C's Wave C is the sharply declining phase of the sharply declining phase, which means that a huge decline should occur during the next week or so. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Brief Spike Thanks To The Fed's Punch Spiking

Then an implosion. NEM fell from a likely Wave C's Wave B cycle high at 56.36 to the 54.60s right now very quickly, so it appears that the apocalypse has begun. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= Wave C's Wave B probably peaked early today (of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 down) so Wave C's Wave C has probably begun. Wave C's Wave C is the sharply declining phase of the sharply declining phase, which means that a huge decline should occur during the next week or so. Welcome to the apocalypse! Hooya! http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Nope, Wave C's Wave B Peaking But

Without the Fed's massive $12.75 Billion 1 day repo today to fuel index fund buying it probably would have been Wave C's Wave C since late yesterday. Also, the XAU filled it's upside gap created at today's open and NEM is trying to fill a recent upside gap at 56.53. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

...............................Wave C's Wave C Senor

Of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 down. Wave C's Wave C is the sharply declining phase of the sharply declining phase, which means that a huge decline should occur during the next week or so, and today's weak start jives with that. Most of the bullishness in the gold/silver stock market should be purged in the next week. Wave C's Wave C is such a dominant consideration now that the indicators are relatively minor for now. However, XAU Implied Volatility portends strength, rising to 38.455 yesterday from 38.025 on Monday despite a +1.86% rise in the XAU which is a sharp rise in fear that portends some probably short lived strength today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell to 1.33617 today from 1.38583 yesterday which portends some weakness today. I look at it pre open so no comparison with the XAU can be done. Yesterday however the XAU Put/Call Ratio fell more than the XAU rose % wise, so complacency crept into the gold/silver stock market. The Fed lent a large $12.75 Billion Repo today so index funds should soften the decline some today ( http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm ), but cycles portend a substantial decline during the next week. Option expiration on Friday is likely to exacerbate the decline and new Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks today which could exacerbate weakness. The primary considerations right now are the Wave 4 minor int term downcycle since 1-31-06 and Wave 4's Wave C short term downcycle since 2-9-06 (which began IT'S Wave C late yesterday), which is the parabolic/sharply declining part of Wave 4, so don't even think about trading long unless maybe you're a super daredevil and try a very quick day trade, but you really shouldn't be trading long at all right now. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Tuesday, February 14, 2006

Welcome To The Major Upcycle's Wave 4 Down Wave C's Wave C, Apocalypse Now

Wave C's Wave A down was from early last Thursday until late yesterday for HUI/NEM/XAU. Wave C's Wave B up appears to have broken down late today, so the apocalypse should have begun late today, Wave C's Wave C. In the next 3-5 days HUI, NEM, and the XAU should drop 10-20% if my Elliot Wave count is correct. NEM underperformed the XAU late in the session, leading to the downside. Buckle up! http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
http://www.JoeFRocks.com/http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=

.........................This Is Wave C's Wave B Up

Wave C's Wave A was from early last Thursday until late yesterday. Now Wave C's Wave B is in effect and once it breaks down the apocalypse should really begin, Wave C's Wave C. Buckle up! http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=

S & P 500 (SPX) Strength Resulted In Index Funds Buying Gold /Silver Stocks Today

And gold/silver stocks were oversold. Note that the very bullish NEM Lead Indicator at +1.27% vs the XAU yesterday correctly pointed to some strength today, though today's uptrend will probably break down soon. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Major Upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 Down Wave C

It looks like the Wave 4 Elliot Wave count in the 1 month NEM chart dated 2-10-06 is accurate and that Wave C began early last Thursday. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for the latest HUI/NEM/XAUcharts showing the Elliot Wave count for the major upcycle since 5-16-05 and for the major upcycle's Wave 4 down that began on 1-31-06. Combine Wave C with option expiration this Friday and this could be an apocalyptic week for gold/silver stocks that should be a great buying opportunity once a Wave 4 cycle low occurs. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 since 1-31 is doing an Elliot Wave A, B, C correction, with Wave C beginning early last Thursday. The Wave 4 correction may not even last 4 weeks the way it looks right now, with last Tuesday 2-7's huge declines probably speeding the process up dramatically. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 minor int term downcycle began on 1-31-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU and a 20-30% 1-2 month correction is probably underway. A Wave 3 2% sell signal occurred on Tuesday 2-7. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for the latest HUI/NEM/XAUcharts showing the Elliot Wave count. NEM's 1 year chart dated 2-3-06 has the clearest count for the major upcycle since 5-16-05. The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell to 1.38583 today from 1.43565 on Monday which portends some weakness today because it's a very sharp rise in complacency, and the Wave C parabolic/dramatic decline short term downcycle has begun, which is the dominant consideration (since cycles are the primary market timing consideration), so the XAU Put/Call Ratio portends more weakness than it normally would due to the parabolic Wave C down. XAU Implied Volatility rose +4.24% to 38.025 on Monday 2-13 from 36.480 on Friday 2-10 versus a -2.57% decline in the XAU on 2-13, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.67% rise in fear (+4.24% + -2.57% = +1.67%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +1.67%, therefore fear rose by +1.67%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Tuesday 2-14's session, but not much strength because the sharply declining Wave C down is in effect. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.40% right now vs the XAU after being a very bullish +1.27% yesterday. Fed Credit in the week ending 2-8-06 fell -$5.235 Billion which portends weakness for the next few days to a week. The Fed lent a small $2.25 Billion 1 day Repo so far today to index fund traders after a below average $6 Billion 1 day Repo yesterday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm , so the Fed didn't spike the index fund trader punch so far this week. HUI, NEM, and the XAU entered their major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 correction on 1-31-06 and are likely to decline -10-20% in the next week or two, similar to what occurred in 2003's Wave 4 when HUI fell -26.59% and the XAU fell -25.11% in 7 weeks. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps get filled, so one needs to track gaps closely. If gaps don't get filled that can be a bearish or bullish sign, as occurred recently when NEM twice closely approached (daily cycle lows at 48.88 and 48.89) but didn't fill it's downside gap at 48.75, then the recent explosive rally occurred. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Monday, February 13, 2006

.......................Dig Those Volatility Spikes Yall!

Tuesday 2-7's huge 7-8% declines in HUI/NEM/XAU as well as the huge volatility spike so far in the Wave C short term downcycle that began early last Thursday portend substantial strength in the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 5 ONCE the Wave 4 minor int term downcycle bottoms, which might not be until HUI hits 240-250, NEM 47ish and the XAU 112ish. The primary considerations right now are the Wave 4 minor int term downcycle since 1-31-06 and Wave 4's Wave C short term downcycle since 2-9-06, which is the parabolic/sharply declining part of Wave 4, so don't even think about trading long unless maybe you're a super daredevil and try a very quick day trade, but you really shouldn't be trading long at all right now. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

NEM Outperformed The XAU By +1.27% Today

So, a significant rebound is likely tomorrow at some point, but HUI, NEM, and the XAU have a way to go to reach their major upcycle trendlines at 250, 47, and 112, though those trendlines could turn up some. The very bullish NEM Lead Indicator today at +1.27% vs the XAU is something to watch. If it's clearly bullish again tomorrow (> +0.50%) then maybe Wave 4 will bottom above the current major upcycle trendlines. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Major Upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 Down Wave C

It looks like the Wave 4 Elliot Wave count in the 1 month NEM chart dated 2-10-06 is accurate and that Wave C began early last Thursday. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for the latest HUI/NEM/XAUcharts showing the Elliot Wave count for the major upcycle since 5-16-05 and for the major upcycle's Wave 4 down that began on 1-31-06. Combine Wave C with option expiration this Friday and this could be an apocalyptic week for gold/silver stocks that should be a great buying opportunity once a Wave 4 cycle low occurs.
The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 since 1-31 is doing an Elliot Wave A, B, C correction, with Wave C beginning early last Thursday. HUI, NEM, and the XAU fell 10-12% in Wave A, which was within the expected 10-15% range, and they rose about 5% in a brief 1 session duration Wave B upcycle. Wave A lasted a little over a week, beginning mid session on 1-31 and ending early last Wednesday. The Wave 4 correction may not even last 4 weeks the way it looks right now, with last Tuesday's huge declines probably speeding the process up dramatically. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 minor int term downcycle began on 1-31-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU and a 20-30% 1-2 month correction is probably underway. A Wave 3 2% sell signal occurred on Tuesday 2-7. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for the latest HUI/NEM/XAUcharts showing the Elliot Wave count. NEM's 1 year chart dated 2-3-06 has the clearest count. The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose to 1.43565 today from 1.43135 on Friday which portends some strength today because it's a modest rise in fear, but the Wave C parabolic/dramatic decline short term downcycle has begun, which is the dominant consideration since cycles are the primary market timing consideration. XAU Implied Volatility rose +1.69% to 36.480 on Friday 2-10 from 35.875 on 2-9 versus a -3.07% decline in the XAU on 2-10, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.38% rise in complacency (+1.69% + -3.07% = -1.38%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -1.38%, therefore complacency rose by +1.38%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 2-13's session. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.90% right now vs the XAU. Fed Credit in the week ending 2-8-06 fell -$5.235 Billion which portends weakness for the next few days to a week. The Fed lent a below average $6 Billion 1 day Repo so far today to index fund traders, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm , so the Fed didn't spike the index fund trader punch so far today. HUI, NEM, and the XAU entered their major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 correction on 1-31-06 and are likely to decline -10-20% in the next week or two, similar to what occurred in 2003's Wave 4 when HUI fell -26.59% and the XAU fell -25.11% in 7 weeks. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps get filled, so one needs to track gaps closely. If gaps don't get filled that can be a bearish or bullish sign, as occurred recently when NEM twice closely approached (daily cycle lows at 48.88 and 48.89) but didn't fill it's downside gap at 48.75, then the recent explosive rally occurred. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Sunday, February 12, 2006

................................Weekly Update Ready

At http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See 1 year charts that show the likely Elliot Wave points for the major upcycle since 5-16-05 and see the 1 month NEM chart dated 2-10-06 for Wave 4's likely Elliot Wave count. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you. Ciao ........................Disclaimer Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered investment advisor. Investing in stocks involves risk. Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered broker or dealer. Each investor has to ascertain what percentage if any of one's investments should be allocated to growth stocks or gold/silver stocks. Please see a financial planner, registered investment advisor or at least do your homework and decide what is right for your situation. Growth stocks and gold/silver stocks tend to be extremely volatile which creates opportunities but also can be very painful and risky. Each investor must take complete responsibility for his or her investing actions. Joe Ferrazzano should be considered as one source of information out of many from which to derive a decision on investing.

................Complacency Keeps A Creepin!

XAU Implied Volatility rose +1.69% to 36.480 on Friday 2-10 from 35.875 on 2-9 versus a -3.07% decline in the XAU on 2-10, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.38% rise in complacency (+1.69% + -3.07% = -1.38%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -1.38%, therefore complacency rose by +1.38%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 2-13's session (complacency is usually contrarian, therefore normally portends weakness, until it reachs an unusually large level (> 6% increase) where it becomes non contrarian). That weakness/a downtrend could follow a gap up at the open and early strength. XAU Implied Volatility tends to indicate a trend/tone rather than necessarily a simplistic up or down session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio is another very important indicator that may disagree with XAU Implied Volatility. These indicators must be used in concert with cycle channels/trendlines (very long term, long term, intermediate term, and short term).

Saturday, February 11, 2006

COT Data Points To Both Strength And Weakness This Week

The latest COT data (as of 2-7-06) is somewhat bullish short term since the gold Commercial Traders traded net long and the gold Speculators traded net short, both of which portend strength for part of this week, but the gold Speculators shorted an unusually large (> 10% increase in short contracts) 5621 futures/options contracts which portends some weakness. The gold Commercial Traders added 4679 (sold 15,347 the prior week, added 343, 10,554, 13,289, 6357 the prior four weeks,) long futures and options contracts and covered a large 9233 (covered 18,701, 8435 the prior two weeks, added 11,306, 4626, 3299 the prior three weeks, covered 2036 the prior week) short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator), but most of the strength probably occurred last week during Thursday's HUI/NEM/XAU Wave B upcycle, because the data is three days old when released and HUI/NEM/XAU Wave 4's Wave C downcycle appears to be in progress. The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold 5910 (added 44 the prior week, sold 6157 the prior week, added 5541, 2975, 1521 the prior three weeks) long futures and options contracts and added an unusually large (> 10% increase in short contracts) 5621 (added 1047, 1783, 3743, 9445, 5824 the prior five weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator), because the unusually large short trade is a short term non contrarian indication, but the long liquidation points to some strength, but most of the strength probably occurred last week during Thursday's HUI/NEM/XAU Wave B upcycle, because the data is three days old when released and HUI/NEM/XAU Wave 4's Wave C downcycle appears to be in progress. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts below).

.................................New Charts Uploaded

See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. Tuesday's huge decline triggered a Wave 3 2% sell signal. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Friday, February 10, 2006

NEM Underperformed The XAU Late In The Session

Leading to the downside, as can be seen at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem NEM outperformed the XAU by a miniscule +0.01% today. -15-20% declines in HUI/NEM/XAU may occur next week if my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are accurate. When NEM outperforms the XAU by over +1.00% in a session or two's time that will be a sign that an important Wave 4 cycle low is probably imminent, meaning that it'll probably occur in a day or two. The more substantial the correction the more the lag time between the NEM Lead Indicator and the cycle low would tend to be, but the lag time shouldn't be much more than a session or two. The COT data points to strength and weakness next week, with most of the metals strength probably occurring during yesterday's Wave B up, because the data is three days old when released. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Looks Like Institutions Are Selling And The Retail Sheep Are Buying

See http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=0&mgp=0&i=2&hdate=&x=12&y=10 Institutions did most of the selling yesterday and are probably doing so again today. Thanks to the very oversold condition gold/silver stocks bounced modestly off their session lows, but may have already resumed their downtrend. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

.........Wave 4's Wave C Began Early Yesterday

NEM and the XAU filled their downside gaps created at yesterday's open early today. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 since 1-31 is doing an Elliot Wave A, B, C correction, with Wave C beginning early yesterday. HUI, NEM, and the XAU fell 10-12% in Wave A, which was within the expected 10-15% range, and they rose about 5% in a brief 1 session duration Wave B upcycle. Wave A lasted a little over a week, beginning mid session on 1-31 and ending early on Wednesday. The Wave 4 correction may not even last 4 weeks the way it looks right now, with Tuesday's huge declines probably speeding the process up dramatically. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 minor int term downcycle began on 1-31-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU and a 20-30% 1-2 month correction is probably underway. A Wave 3 2% sell signal occurred on Tuesday. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for the latest HUI/NEM/XAUcharts showing the Elliot Wave count. NEM's 1 year chart dated 2-3-06 has the clearest count. The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell an unusually large > 6% to 1.43135 today from 1.54337 on Thursday which portends some strength today because it's an unusually large rise in complacency, but the Wave C parabolic/dramatic decline short term downcycle has begun, which is the dominant consideration since cycles are the primary market timing consideration. XAU Implied Volatility rose to 35.875 yesterday from 35.820 on Wednesday 2-8 versus a +1.60% rise in the XAU on 2-9, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) rise in fear that portends strength/an uptrend during part of today's session. The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.11% yesterday, a bearish -0.83% on Wednesday and is a bullish +0.40% right now vs the XAU. Fed Credit in the week ending 2-8-06 fell -$5.235 Billion which portends weakness for the next few days to a week. The The Fed lent a respectable $7.75 Billion 3 day Repo so far today after $18.25 Billion in Repos yesterday versus a modest $3.5 Billion 1 day Repo to index fund traders on Wednesday after a $5 Billion 1 day Repo Tuesday and a respectable $7 Billion 1 day Repo on Monday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm , so the Fed only spiked the index fund trader punch yesterday. HUI, NEM, and the XAU entered their major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 correction on 1-31-06 and are likely to decline -20-30% in the next 4-10 weeks, similar to what occurred in 2003's Wave 4 when HUI fell -26.59% and the XAU fell -25.11% in 7 weeks. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps get filled, so one needs to track gaps closely. If gaps don't get filled that can be a bearish or bullish sign, as occurred recently when NEM twice closely approached (daily cycle lows at 48.88 and 48.89) but didn't fill it's downside gap at 48.75, then the recent explosive rally occurred. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Thursday, February 09, 2006

.......................A One Session Wave B Upcycle?

That's what it looks like:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= The XAU peaked very early today and looks like it will fill it's downside gap created at today's open early tomorrow, along with NEM, which underperformed the XAU by a slight -0.11% today on top of yesterday's wide margin of -0.83%, so tomorrow could be a very sharp decline if the major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 4's Wave C has begun.

The next week or two will probably be very nasty if Wave C has begun and the XAU falls into or near my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 112-117, which implies downside from here of about -20% or more, which will catch a lot of people off guard. The Yahoo gold/silver stock message boards are full of Bulls with a modest degree of caution from a small % of people. A lot of lambs will probably be slaughtered in the next week or two, luckily Wave 5 will bail them out in most cases if they hang on to their positions. Many will be stopped out automatically of course.

Institutions were selling NEM big time today, over 8 million shares traded: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem

Buckle up! http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The Fed Added A $7.25 Billion 1 Day Repo

For a total of $18.25 Billion today, which is massive, and accounts for much of today's strength due to index fund trading/buying their gold/silver stock components. Without massive punch spiking the Wave B short term upcycle would probably have been pretty anemic. There's been massive punch spiking every Thursday for at least the past 4-5 weeks. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

....................Downside Gap Filling Action Now

NEM and the XAU are trying to fill the downside gaps created at today's open, which means they could turn negative at some point today. NEM is leading to the downside, well off it's session high of 57.62 at 56.48 right now, and is underperforming the XAU by a very bearish -1.10% on top of yesterday's bearish -0.83%. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

.......Wave 4's Wave B Up Began Early Yesterday

Thursday is punch spiking day for the Fed, they lent an $11 Billion 14 day Repo so far today which has led to an early spike move. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 since 1-31 should do an Elliot Wave A, B, C correction. HUI, NEM, and the XAU fell 10-12% in Wave A which was within the expected 10-15% range. Wave A lasted a little over a week, beginning mid session on 1-31 and ending early yesterday. The Wave 4 correction may not even last 4 weeks the way it looks right now, with Wednesday's huge declines probably speeding the process up dramatically. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 minor int term downcycle began on 1-31-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU and a 20-30% 1-2 month correction is probably underway. A Wave 3 2% sell signal occurred on Wednesday. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for the latest HUI/NEM/XAUcharts showing the Elliot Wave count. NEM's 1 year chart dated 2-3-06 has the clearest count. The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose to 1.54337 today from 1.47331 on Wednesday which correctly portended some strength today. XAU Implied Volatility fell to 35.820 yesterday from 36.740 on Tuesday 2-7 versus a -0.18% decline in the XAU on 2-8, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) rise in complacency that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of today's session. The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.83% yesterday and is a bearish -0.35% now vs the XAU. The Fed lent lent a $11 Billion 14 day Repo so far today versus a modest $3.5 Billion 1 day Repo to index fund traders yesterday after a $5 Billion 1 day Repo Tuesday and a respectable $7 Billion 1 day Repo on Monday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm , so the Fed didn't really spike the index fund trader punch until today. HUI, NEM, and the XAU entered their major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 correction on 1-31-06 and are likely to decline -20-30% in the next 4-10 weeks, similar to what occurred in 2003's Wave 4 when HUI fell -26.59% and the XAU fell -25.11% in 7 weeks. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 137.64 from 1-19, at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps get filled, so one needs to track gaps closely. If gaps don't get filled that can be a bearish or bullish sign, as occurred recently when NEM twice closely approached (daily cycle lows at 48.88 and 48.89) but didn't fill it's downside gap at 48.75, then the recent explosive rally occurred. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

There's An Elliot Wave A, B, C Pattern In Place

Since 1-31-06's Wave 3 minor int term cycle high, which is probably the Wave A short term downcycle's A, B, C pattern (see link, today's bar doesn't show), so it looks like Wave A will bottom in the next few days
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= An alternate much less likely scenario is that another huge down day or two occurs in the next few days and the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 bottoms much sooner than the expected 4-10 weeks. It appears right now that Wave 4 will be closer to a 4 week than a 10 week correction, but 2 weeks is very unlikely unless another 15-20% decline occurs in the next few days, which would bring the XAU close to or even into the Wave 4 cycle low target range of 112-117. It's unlikely that the huge excesses of Wave 3 would be corrected in about two weeks time, and, it'll probably be better if the Wave 4 correction does last over 4 weeks in order to wring the bullish excesses out of the gold/silver stock market and to set it up for another great rally in Elliot Wave 5, where HUI is expected to hit 400-450, NEM 70-75, and the XAU is expected to hit 180-200. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Underperformed The XAU By -0.83% Today

So, more and potentially severe weakness is likely tomorrow. The Wave A short term downcycle may bottom by week's end. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Lead Indicator Very Bearish Now At About -1.00% Vs The XAU

The downtrend should resume shortly. Note that SPX (S & P 500) strength coincided closely with HUI/NEM/XAU strength after early weakness. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Early Weakness Followed By Oversold Bounce

More Wave A down appears likely before the major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 4's Wave B up begins, because NEM is still leading to the downside early today. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 should do an Elliot Wave A, B, C correction is what I'm talking about. When the NEM Lead Indicator becomes > +0.50% vs the XAU then Wave B up will probably be imminent. The XAU has downside gaps at 137.64 from 1-19 and at 135.39 from 1-6 that may get filled in Wave A. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 minor int term downcycle began on 1-31-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU and a 20-30% 1-2 month correction is probably underway. A Wave 3 2% sell signal occurred yesterday. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for the latest HUI/NEM/XAUcharts showing the Elliot Wave count. NEM's 1 year chart dated 2-3-06 has the clearest count. The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose to 1.47331 today from 1.41244 on Tuesday which portends some strength today. XAU Implied Volatility rose to 36.740 yesterday from 35.385 on Monday 2-6 versus a -7.08% decline in the XAU on 2-7, which is a very sharp (3-6%) rise in complacency that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of today's session. The Fed lent a modest $3.5 Billion 1 day Repo to index fund traders so far today after a $5 Billion 1 day Repo yesterday and a respectable $7 Billion 1 day Repo on Monday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm , so the Fed isn't spiking the index fund trader punch so far this week. HUI, NEM, and the XAU probably entered their major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 correction on 1-31-06 and are likely to decline -20-30% in the next 4-10 weeks, similar to what occurred in 2003's Wave 4 when HUI fell -26.59% and the XAU fell -25.11% in 7 weeks. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 137.64 from 1-19, at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps get filled, so one needs to track gaps closely. If gaps don't get filled that can be a bearish or bullish sign, as occurred recently when NEM twice closely approached (daily cycle lows at 48.88 and 48.89) but didn't fill it's downside gap at 48.75, then the recent explosive rally occurred. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Tuesday, February 07, 2006

...........A Waterfall Declineeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

That's a nice way of saying crash. I'm glad I've got my shorts on! Actually XAU Put Options. NEM fell -6.96% vs the the XAU's -7.08%, so NEM only outperformed by a slight +0.12%. At this rate the major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 4's Wave A down could bottom tomorrow. A clearly bullish NEM Lead Indicator (> +0.50%) will be something to look for in the next day or two. Also, the Fed usually spikes the index fund trader punch on Thursdays, so that's something to look for also. A great indicator to watch is William's %R. When that hits an extremely oversold extreme at or near -100%, a short term cycle low will probably be imminent. It's at -85-90% for NEM/XAU and at -70% for HUI at today's close.

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 may be a quick violent 2-4 week -20-30% decline instead of a two month affair. It appears that way right now at least.

NEM has downside gaps to fill at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 137.64 from 1-19, at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps get filled, so one needs to track gaps closely. If gaps don't get filled that can be a bearish or bullish sign, as occurred recently when NEM twice closely approached (daily cycle lows at 48.88 and 48.89) but didn't fill it's downside gap at 48.75, then the recent explosive rally occurred.

See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

NEM Filled It's Downside Gap At 56.97 From 1-25

And the XAU filled it's downside gap at 141.29 from 1-25. As I've said before the bigger the spike the larger and faster the subsequent selloff/plunge tends to be, so today is no big surprise, given the monster Wave 3 spike in recent months that was partly due to the Fed's massive lending to index fund traders. NEM underperformed the XAU yesterday by a very bearish -1.30% which indicated that a very sharp decline might occur today, because the NEM Lead Indicator was very bearish. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

............................NEM Gapped Way Down

And filled it's downside gap at 59.20 from 1-30. The XAU filled it's downside gap at 146.79 from 1-30 shortly after the open. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 minor int term downcycle probably began on 1-31-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU and a 20-30% 1-2 month correction is probably underway. A Wave 3 2% sell signal could occur today or tomorrow, but Elliot Wave already identified 1-31-06 as the likely Wave 3 minor int term cycle high for HUI/NEM/XAU. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for their latest charts showing the Elliot Wave count. NEM's 1 year chart dated 2-3-06 has the clearest count.

It'll be interesting to see how the other analysts/timers handle this 20-30% 1-2 month correction. The vast majority are making educated guesses and don't have proven systems, with Jeff Kern being a notable exception ( http://www.skigoldstocks.com/ ). Check out Jeff's free area if you're into cutting edge market timing/research. I have no vested interest in promoting Jeff, I'm not an affliate for him. He's a truly great market timer/researcher as I say in the testimonial I gave him. We exchange occasional e mails, and, he said he'd do a weekly internet radio show with me when I decide to do that, maybe in the next long term upcycle. Analysts/timers tend to be contrarian indicators, becoming very bullish near important cycle highs and very bearish near important cycle lows, because, without a proven system, you're in the dark.

The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose to 1.41244 today from 1.40976 on Monday which portends some strength today. XAU Implied Volatility rose to 35.385 yesterday from 34.570 on Friday 2-3 versus a +2.74% risee in the XAU on 2-6, which is a very sharp (3-6%) rise in fear that portends strength/an uptrend during part of today's session.

The Fed lent a modest $5 Billion 1 day Repo to index fund traders so far today after a respectable $7 Billion 1 day Repo to index fund traders yesterday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm The S & P 500 was weak early today, which was a major contributor to early gold/silver stock weakness due to index fund selling. HUI, NEM, and the XAU probably entered their major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 correction on 1-31-06 and are likly to decline -20-30% in the next 4-10 weeks, similar to what occurred in 2003's Wave 4 when HUI fell -26.59% and the XAU fell -25.11% in 7 weeks.

NEM has downside gaps to fill at 56.97 from 1-25, at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 141.29 from 1-25, at 137.64 from 1-19, at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps get filled, so one needs to track gaps closely. If gaps don't get filled that can be a bearish or bullish sign, as occurred recently when NEM twice closely approached (daily cycle lows at 48.88 and 48.89) but didn't fill it's downside gap at 48.75, then the recent explosive rally occurred.

See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Monday, February 06, 2006

Now It Appears That The XAU's Upside Gap At 152.11 From Friday Will Get Filled

But the NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.30% vs the XAU today, so after likely early strength due to upside gap filling tomorrow, weakness will probably set in. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The XAU Has Failed (So Far) To Fill It's Upside Gap Near 152

And, NEM is underperforming the XAU by a wide margin of about -0.80% right now, so it appears the XAU won't fill it's upside gap from Friday just below 152, which is obviously a bearish sign, especially when combined with a bearish NEM Lead Indicator. A Bullish NEM Lead Indicator would have meant that the XAU would probably take another run at it's upside gap near 152. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ !

The XAU Is Trying To Fill An Upside Gap Near 152

Then the XAU and NEM have downside gaps created at today's open and many others. The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose to 1.40976 today from 1.38442 on Friday which correctly portended some strength today. XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.20% to 34.570 on Friday 2-3 from 34.990 on 2-2 versus a -2.87% decline in the XAU on 2-3, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +4.07% rise in complacency (-1.20% + -2.87% = -4.07%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -4.07%, therefore complacency rose by +4.07%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 2-6's session. The Fed lent a respectable $7 Billion 1 day Repo to index fund traders today, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm The S & P 500 began modestly higher today, which was a major contributor to early gold/silver stock strength due to index fund buying, but SPX has turned down so gold/silver stocks should soon turn down. HUI, NEM, and the XAU probably entered their major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 correction on 1-31-06 and are likly to decline -20-30% in the next 4-10 weeks, similar to what occurred in 2003's Wave 4 when HUI fell -26.59% and the XAU fell -25.11% in 7 weeks.

See
http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

Sunday, February 05, 2006

................................Weekly Update Ready

At http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See 1 year charts that show the likely Elliot Wave points for the major upcycle since 5-16-05 and see the 5 day XAU chart dated 2-3-06. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you. Ciao ........................Disclaimer Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered investment advisor. Investing in stocks involves risk. Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered broker or dealer. Each investor has to ascertain what percentage if any of one's investments should be allocated to growth stocks or gold/silver stocks. Please see a financial planner, registered investment advisor or at least do your homework and decide what is right for your situation. Growth stocks and gold/silver stocks tend to be extremely volatile which creates opportunities but also can be very painful and risky. Each investor must take complete responsibility for his or her investing actions. Joe Ferrazzano should be considered as one source of information out of many from which to derive a decision on investing.

.............Interesting COT Data Last Week

The latest COT data (as of 1-31-06) is bullish short term since the gold Commercial Traders traded net long and the gold Speculators traded net short, both of which portend strength for at least part of this week, but the data is three days old when released, so most of the strength may have occurred last week, given that gold stocks, which tend to lead gold, fell very sharply after last Tuesday 1-31's likely Elliot Wave 3 minor intermediate term cycle highs. The gold Commercial Traders sold an unusually large (> 10% decrease in long contracts) 15,347 (added 343, 10,554, 13,289, 6357 the prior four weeks, sold 1381, 8157 the prior two weeks) long futures and options contracts and covered a large 18,701 (covered 8435 the prior week, added 11,306, 4626, 3299 the prior three weeks, covered 2036 the prior week, added 4202, 2623 the prior two weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator), because the unusually large long liquidation is a short term contrarian indication, and the aggressive short covering also portends strength, but most of the strength probably occurred last week because the data is three days old when released. The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 44 (sold 6157 the prior week, added 5541, 2975, 1521 the prior three weeks, sold 3988, 5112, 19,247 the prior three weeks) long futures and options contracts and added 1047 (added 1783, 3743, 9445, 5824 the prior four weeks, covered 1535, 7432, 8720 the prior three weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (contrarian indicator), but most of the strength probably occurred last week because the data is three days old when released. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts below).