Trade the Cycles

Monday, February 27, 2006

Newmont Mining (NEM) Disappoints And Wave C Short Term Downcycle

Now we know why many NEM execs sold in early February: http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_3551825 The Wave C short term downcycle probably began last Wednesday for HUI/XAU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) and on Friday for NEM. NEM is down -4.68% right now vs -2.92% for the XAU, so the NEM Lead Indicator is obviously very bearish. The parabolic/sharply declining Wave C short term downcycle of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle (since 1-31-06) is such a dominant factor right now that the indicators other than maybe the NEM Lead Indicator aren't that important right now. The main factor today is obviously NEM's earnings miss. The XAU Put/Call Ratio for the March expiration fell to 0.91840 from 0.92033 on Friday which portends some weakness today. XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.09% to 35.260 on Friday 2-24 from 35.650 on 2-23 versus a +2.53% rise in the XAU on 2-24, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.44% rise in fear (-1.09% + +2.53% = -+1.44%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +1.44%, therefore fear rose by +1.44%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Monday 2-27's session. Fed Credit to index fund traders grew by only $2 Billion so far today: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

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