Trade the Cycles

Friday, February 24, 2006

NEM Perfect Double Top Occurred Early Today At 57.75

With yesterday's cycle high. The fact that NEM continues to outperform the XAU by a wide margin at +0.50% right now, +1.72% yesterday, and by +0.34% on Wednesday, combined with massive Fed lending to index fund traders, http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE , casts serious doubt on HUI/XAU having begun Wave C two days ago and NEM today, but yesterday's 1% Wave B short term cycle sell signal indicates that there's too much risk to trade long from a short term cycle perspective, and, since this is a Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle since 1-31-06, you shouldn't be aggressively trading long short term anyway, MAYBE a modest long trade short term, prior to the sell signal of course. The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose for a change to 0.92033 from 0.88985 yesterday which correctly portended some probably brief strength today and XAU Implied Volatility portends some weakness today, rising less in % terms than the XAU fell yesterday, to 35.65 from 35.22 on 2-22 vs a -3.32% decline in the XAU yesterday, which is a sharp rise in complacency that portends some weakness today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio's collapse from above 1.30000 for the final Feb value to well below 1.00000 now indicates that a substantial decline is likely soon which should be the Wave C short term downcycle. Many people think the lows are already in which is unlikely because they occurred much too far above the major upcycle trendlines (currently at about 255, 47, and 112 for HUI/NEM/XAU) to be likely Wave 4 cycle lows. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

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