...........Wave 4's Wave B Short Term Upcycle
And massive Fed Punch Spiking ($18.75 Billion in Repos last Thursday and Fed Credit rose by over $6 Billion the week ending 2-15-06) are the two most important factors right now. Fed Credit fuels SPX traders which moves other stocks/indexes such as HUI, NEM, and the XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator is near neutral vs the XAU right now. XAU Implied Volatility fell -6.38% to 34.115 on Friday 2-17 from 36.440 on 2-16 versus a +1.13% rise in the XAU on 2-17, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +5.25% rise in complacency (-6.38% + +1.13% = -5.25%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -5.25%, therefore complacency rose by +5.25%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Tuesday 2-21's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio collapsed to 0.96608 today from 1.07156 on Friday which portends strength followed by weakness today. The unusually large > 6% decline is an unusually large rise in complacency that portends brief strength. The collapse in the XAU Put/Call Ratio from the expired February expiration at 1.30761 on Friday to March's that fell below 1.00000 today is a sign that this strength is probably Wave 4's Wave B short term upcycle and not the start of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, because the dramatic decline points to substantial weakness soon. I look at it pre open so no comparison with the XAU can be done. The Fed lent a $7.75 Billion 1 day Repo today ( http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm ). See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.
The NEM Lead Indicator is near neutral vs the XAU right now. XAU Implied Volatility fell -6.38% to 34.115 on Friday 2-17 from 36.440 on 2-16 versus a +1.13% rise in the XAU on 2-17, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +5.25% rise in complacency (-6.38% + +1.13% = -5.25%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -5.25%, therefore complacency rose by +5.25%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Tuesday 2-21's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio collapsed to 0.96608 today from 1.07156 on Friday which portends strength followed by weakness today. The unusually large > 6% decline is an unusually large rise in complacency that portends brief strength. The collapse in the XAU Put/Call Ratio from the expired February expiration at 1.30761 on Friday to March's that fell below 1.00000 today is a sign that this strength is probably Wave 4's Wave B short term upcycle and not the start of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, because the dramatic decline points to substantial weakness soon. I look at it pre open so no comparison with the XAU can be done. The Fed lent a $7.75 Billion 1 day Repo today ( http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm ). See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:09 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home