Trade the Cycles

Friday, February 17, 2006

.............Wave B Up Of Wave C May Be Peaking

NEM is underperforming the XAU by a very bearish -1.00% right now, so the major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 4's Wave C's Wave B (I'll have a 1 month chart showing this count) may be peaking today and the apocalypse, Wave C's Wave C, may begin today. NEM filled it's upside gap at 56.53 from last Friday early today. Wave C's Wave C will be the sharply declining phase of the sharply declining phase, which means that a huge decline should occur during the next week or two. Most of the bullishness in the gold/silver stock market should be purged in the next week or two. XAU Implied Volatility portends weakness today, falling over 6% to 36.440 yesterday from 38.780 on Wednesday vs a +2.31% rise in the XAU yesterday, which is a very sharp rise in complacency that portends some weakness today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell to 1.30761 today from 1.30824 yesterday which portends some weakness today. I look at it pre open so no comparison with the XAU can be done. The Fed lent a $5.25 Billion 5 day Repo today after a massive $18.75 Billion in Repos yesterday, once again massive lending on a Thursday, and lended a large $12.75 Billion Repo on Wednesday, so index funds are responsible for much of the strength in recent days( http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm ), but cycles portend a substantial decline during the next week or two. Option expiration today may have contributed to strength also. The primary considerations right now are the Wave 4 minor int term downcycle since 1-31-06 and Wave 4's Wave C short term downcycle since 2-9-06, which is the parabolic/sharply declining part of Wave 4. There is a small chance that the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 bottomed this week and that Wave 5 has begun, which would be confirmed by a 2% buy signal. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

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