Early Strength Was Expected Due To The Very Bullish NEM Lead Indicator

Yesterday at +1.80% vs the XAU. But the fact that the strength has been modest, especially since the NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.80% yesterday vs the XAU, clearly indicates that a downcycle is in effect. This is Wave C's Wave C (since early yesterday) beginning relatively flat, of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 down. Wave C's Wave C is the sharply declining phase of the sharply declining phase, which means that a huge decline should occur during the next week or so. Most of the bullishness in the gold/silver stock market should be purged in the next week. Wave C's Wave C is such a dominant consideration now that the indicators are relatively minor for now. XAU Implied Volatility portends weakness, rising less than 1% to 38.780 yesterday from 38.455 on Tuesday vs a -2.42% decline in the XAU yesterday, which is a significant rise in complacency that portends some weakness today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell to 1.30824 today from 1.33617 yesterday which portends some weakness today. I look at it pre open so no comparison with the XAU can be done. The Fed lent a massive $18 Billion in Repos today, once again massive lending on a Thursday, and lended a large $12.75 Billion Repo yesterday so index funds should soften the decline some today ( http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm ), but cycles portend a substantial decline during the next week. Massive Fed lending to index fund traders isn't helping much which is another sign that a downcycle is in effect. Option expiration on Friday is likely to exacerbate the decline. The primary considerations right now are the Wave 4 minor int term downcycle since 1-31-06 and Wave 4's Wave C short term downcycle since 2-9-06, which is the parabolic/sharply declining part of Wave 4, so don't even think about trading long unless maybe you're a super daredevil and try a very quick day trade, but you really shouldn't be trading long at all right now. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.