Trade the Cycles

Friday, May 29, 2009

SPX (S & P 500) Is Simply Bouncing To The Top Of The Downtrending Channel, Of The Downcycle Since The 5-8-09 Cycle High At 930.17

SPX (S & P 500) is simply bouncing to the top of the downtrending channel, of the downcycle since the 5-8-09 cycle high at 930.17. A Short Term Wave 2 cycle high occurred at 924.60 on 5-20-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) ended the session late in Wave 2 up of the Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle that began very early on Wednesday 5-20, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

Today's SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) rebound to the downtrend line since 5-8-09 (930.17, 924.60, and 920.02 today) makes this a relatively flat downtrend since 5-8-09 (probably the start of Wave C down of the bear market since 10-11-07), which means that a large downcycle should soon crash and experience a substantial or even (the indicators point to) a dramatic decline.

Today's strength makes the
SPX (S & P 500) outlook even more bearish than if SPX had plunged today, because, it's a larger downcycle now, because the relatively flat segment of the downcycle since 5-8-09 is persisting.

Even if SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) surprises to the upside and takes out the 930.17 cycle high that occurred on 5-8-09, the indicators are off the charts bearish, as I discuss next. It would probably be a very short lived very modest breakout.

Check out the super bearish three month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC.

Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is off the charts bearish,
see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.

I'll be looking to trade ultra short via TZA, SRS, FAZ etc on Monday.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at bearish (nearly very bearish), at -0.98% versus SPX (S & P 500) today 5-29.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at extremely bearish (-2.00% to -3.99% versus SPX) today 5-29-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Check out the super bearish three month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC. (I know it repeated, leaving it in for next time).

SPX (S & P 500) experienced an unusually large +7.32% rise in complacency/-7.32% decline in the wall of worry today 5-29, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +1.36% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -8.68%, which typically points to some significant SPX (S & P 500)/market strength early on Monday 6-1-09, but, in this case the strength might only be very modest, followed possibly by severe weakness.

SPX's (S & P 500) cycle high/bearish spike/candle on Wednesday 5-20 was probably (very likely it appears, but, for the system I want to see 877.52 get filled for 75%+ confidence and 855.16 get filled for 90%+ confidence that SPX peaked at 930.17 on 5-8-09) a Short Term Wave 2 up cycle high (at 924.60), see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

SPX (S & P 500) has a bearish nearly perfect double top at 929.58/930.17 on 5-7/5-8-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which is probably the Wave B up cycle high of the bear market since 10-11-07.

See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.

The S & P 500 (SPX) Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle (since early 5-20) should bottom at 805ish (likely scenario), shortly after filling the downside gap at 811.08, chart at http://bit.ly/Ji24s.

An SPX (S & P 500,
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Short Term Wave 1 Downcycle (assumes SPX peaked at 930.17 on 5-8-09, likely) bottomed late on Friday 5-15-09 (down up down up down since 930.17 cycle high on 5-8-09), see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

The SPX (S & P 500) spike move that began late on Friday 5-15-09, very likely a countertrend Short Term Wave 2 Upcycle/upside gap filling action (
upside gap at 908.35 from 5-13-09 got filled late on 5-19),
peaked early on 5-20, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

Note
SPX's (S & P 500) bearish spike on a bearish dark candle Wednesday 5-20, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. A very large Short Term Wave 3 down move has probably begun.

Today's SPX (S & P 500) volume was below average (Yahoo's chart is a day behind right now, weird), which supports the bearish case, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, because, the big money didn't buy today's strength in a meaningful way. See the volume bars at the bottom of http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

There's a good chance that the 882.88 (filled on 5-21), 877.52 and 855.16
SPX (S & P 500) downside gaps will get filled soon. There are more downside gaps at 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, at 676.53.

Let me dispel the utter nonsense about a low VIX being bullish for stocks. The fact that VIX has dramatically collapsed RELATIVE to SPX (S & P 500) in recent months (SPX versus VIX is the Wall of Worry), fallen much more in % terms than SPX has risen, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, points to a likely dramatic SPX decline in the coming months.

If VIX had held up well compared to SPX
(S & P 500), then, a low VIX WOULD be bullish. It's the Wall of Worry, how well VIX holds up relative to SPX, that matters. Actually, very low VIX extremes/cycle lows tend to mark important SPX cycle highs, and, very high VIX extremes/cycle highs tend to mark important SPX cycle lows.

I'm officially adding volume to my arsenal. Volume reliably spikes near important cycle highs/lows. Since SPX (S & P 500) volume was average in late April, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, that was a sign that the market didn't peak yet. Since volume spiked on 5-7 and 5-8-09 (929.58/930.17 bearish SPX double top), that was potentially a sign of important peaking action.

Note also that the late April
SPX (S & P 500) spike/candle isn't that bearish/didn't look like an important cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

T
he S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 probably peaked at 930.17 very late on Friday 5-8 (probably also Wave B up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07), putting in a near perfect bearish double top with Thursday 5-7-09's cycle high at 929.58.

As I said at Twitter "If the S & P 500 (SPX) fills downside gap at 877.52, 75%+ chance rally ended, if 855.16 gets filled, then a 90%+ chance the rally's over."

Watch the SPX (S & P 500) downside gaps at 877.52, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, at 676.53.

When SPX (S & P 500) fills the downside gap at 855.16 (and hits 850ish shortly thereafter), then, it'll be very likely that the countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 has peaked, because, the uptrend line/channel since mid/late March will have clearly/decisively broken down, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, triggering an important sell signal/technical breakdown.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) probably peaked on Wednesday 5-6-09 just after the open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^ndx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

The S & P 500 (SPX) stochastics were extremely overbought on Friday 5-8-09, at 92.23 and 93.64, and, Williams %R was at -0.91, very close to the overbought maximum extreme at 0 (-100 is an oversold extreme).

The US Dollar's crash recently is a major negative for US equities near term, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd.

The recent huge S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Wave 5 (of Wave 5 really) type blowoff spike move of jives well with important peaking action.

Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data since 3-6-09, when a likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle began) is super bearish since 3-6-09, at -0.98% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-29, -1.07% on 5-28, +0.54% on 5-27, -1.11% on 5-26, +0.44% on 5-22, +2.03% on 5-21, -0.34% on 5-20, -0.95% on 5-19, +0.64% on 5-18, -0.79% on 5-15, -2.90% on 5-14, +0.98% on 5-13, +0.63% on 5-12, +3.13% on 5-11, -1.91% on 5-8, +2.09% on 5-7, -3.62% on 5-6, -0.37% on 5-5, -1.81% on 5-4, -1.23% on 5-1, +0.00% on 4-30, +1.92% on 4-29, +0.19% on 4-28, +2.35% on 4-27, -3.71% on 4-24, -1.19% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.

Additionally, the collapse of the S & P 500 wall of worry (SPX versus VIX) recently, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, points to a collapse in SPX soon. Note that when VIX substantially outperforms SPX for a while, substantial SPX strength tends to occur shortly thereafter (since 3-6-09 in this case), and, vice versa.

From the 1576.09 S & P 500 (SPX) Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 10-11-07 to the cycle low at 666.79 on 3-6-09 the S & P 500 (SPX) did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern, with 1256.98 being the Wave 1 down cycle low (inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern), 1440.24 being the Wave 2 up cycle high, 741.02 being the Wave 3 down cycle low (inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern), 943.85 being the Wave 4 up cycle high, and, with 666.79 being the Wave 5 down cycle low, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is probably Wave A down of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07.

The
likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was probably Wave B up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. It's the first meaningful S & P 500 (SPX) rally of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is a sign that it's Wave B up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The unusual amount of very large spiking action since 3-6-09, even very early on, also jives well with countertrend and important peaking action.

One of today's Tweets: "Thanks to crashing velocity of money in recent months increases in the money supply have minimal and decreasing effect. Any questions? LOL!"

Follow my live updates (the "play by play") at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.

As long as SPX (S & P 500) peaks below the 1-6-09 943.85 cycle high, see chart two at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, then, the upcoming cycle high (probably at 930.17 on Friday 5-8-09) will probably be, until proven otherwise, a countertrend Wave B type cycle high, that's probably Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, to be precise, and, is probably also Wave B up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07.

The Trade the Cycles system doesn't flash an important sell signal until the S & P 500 (SPX) uptrend line/channel since mid/late March clearly/decisively breaks down, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. However, given the extremely overbought condition on Friday 5-8-09/recently, the huge Wave 5 spike move recently, the other factors discussed above, and, caution is obviously in order.

The longer the lag time between when the super bearish
broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data beginning on 3-6-09) "kicks in," from when it originally became extremely bearish, the more important the upcoming cycle high will tend to be, because, the larger, longer, more important the upcycle or downcycle, the longer the lag time tends to be before an important indicator
"kicks in," and, the expected action (severe weakness in this case) begins.

Therefore
, the long lag time recently (recent weeks) points to an important cycle high occurring soon (probably at 930.17 on Friday 5-8-09), and, jives with it being a likely countertrend Wave B type cycle high, probably Wave B up of the intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, purchased on 4-22 at 8.85.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.65% versus the XOI today/on 5-29, -1.79% on 5-28, -1.27% on 5-27, -0.45% on 5-26, +0.67% on 5-22, +0.48% on 5-21, -1.97% on 5-20, -0.49% on 5-19, -1.02% on 5-18, +1.06% on 5-15, +0.11% on 5-14, +1.45% on 5-13, +1.65% on 5-12, +1.01% on 5-11, -1.79% on 5-8, +1.48% on 5-7, -2.03% on 5-6, +0.33% on 5-5, -2.76% on 5-4, -1.30% on 5-1, -0.45% on 4-30, -0.35% on 4-29, +0.92% on 4-28, +1.44% on 4-27, -1.72% on 4-24, -1.57% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.23% on 4-21, +2.60% on 4-20, -1.00% on 4-17, -1.62% on 4-16, +0.95% on 4-15, +0.96% on 4-14, -1.90% on 4-13, -0.66% on 4-9, -0.47% on 4-8, +0.61% on 4-7, +1.71% on 4-6, -0.57% on 4-3, -2.70% on 4-2, -0.27% on 4-1.

Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle, that began on 3-6-09, is probably Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.62 (filled), 51.53, 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 50.63 (filled), 49.51 (filled), 48.47 (filled), 48.15.

SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84 (filled 3-26-09), 815.94 (filled 4-2-09),
832.86 (filled 4-2-09), has upside gaps at 835.48 (filled), 842.50 (filled), 858.73 (filled), 869.89 (filled), 869.60 (filled), 908.35 (filled), 903.47 (filled), 929.23, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at
907.39 (filled 5-12), 903.80 (filled 5-7), 882.88 (filled 5-21), 877.52, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now/soon (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it. Not a recommendation.

Follow my live updates at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow after doing a search for tradethecycles. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. I just started using Twitter recently. I'm going to try to make timely live updates at Twitter and make it a real time extension of this Blog. Also, I opine about other subjects.

GDX/HUI/XAU's rollover upcycle since 4-17-09 is peaking/might have peaked (great opportunity to take profits, if that's your intention, I'm not suggesting what anyone should do), see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart. The strength since 4-17-09 is peaking in rollover mode/upside surprise, of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU.

The five day intraday NEM Lead Indicator closed at very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.

GDX/HUI/XAU are/were doing a rollover upcycle since 4-17-09 (
the NEM Lead Indicator closed at +0.11% versus the XAU today/on 5-29, -1.01% on 5-28, -1.17% on 5-27, +0.26% on 5-26, -0.11% on 5-22, +0.96% on 5-21, -0.61% on 5-20, +0.37% on 5-19, -0.94% on 5-18, -0.98% on 5-15, +0.92% on 5-14, -0.21% on 5-13, +0.20% on 5-12, -1.41% on 5-11, -1.04% on 5-8, +1.53% on 5-7, -1.70% on 5-6, -0.03% on 5-5, -0.46% on 5-4, -4.10% on 5-1, +1.00% on 4-30, -1.03% on 4-29, -0.56% on 4-28, +2.63% on 4-27, +1.22% on 4-24, -1.75% on 4-23, -1.37% on 4-22, +0.95% on 4-21, -0.02% on 4-20, -0.93% on 4-17, -0.89% on 4-16, -0.03% on 4-15, +0.23% on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7) of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 43.01, 41.22, 38.43, 33.11 (filled), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 34.87 and 34.37 (both filled 5-4), and, NEM has one at 43.89 (filled 5-7) and one at 41.68 (filled 5-5). NEM has downside gaps at 47.35, 45.87, 43.57, 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 (filled) from 3-19's open.

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal 17 weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/


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Thursday, May 28, 2009

SPX (S & P 500) Simply Bounced To The Top Of The Downtrending Channel

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) simply bounced to the top of the downtrending channel, of the downcycle since the 5-8-09 cycle high at 930.17. A Short term Wave 2 cycle high occurred at 924.60. A Wave 2 up cycle high occurred at 913.84 yesterday, of the Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle since early 5-20, see http://bit.ly/ggZoR.

SPX's (S & P 500,
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) upcycle today, that might have peaked at 2:35 pm or should do so very early tomorrow, was probably Wave 2 up of Wave 3 down (began yesterday) of the Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle since early 5-20, see http://bit.ly/ggZoR. If so, then a very large Wave 3 down of Wave 3 down move should occur tomorrow, of the Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle since early 5-20. Watch the 877.52 downside gap. 855.16 is the next one after that.

Yesterday's
indicators pointed to substantial strength today (broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at bullish, +0.54% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 5-27 and VIX rose +5.68% on 5-27), and, the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator also did, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Today's SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) action is bearish, because, the downtrend since 5-8-09 is still relatively flat, which points to a large downcycle, that's probably the start of Wave C down of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The power of cycles.

I'll be looking to trade ultra short via TZA, SRS, FAZ etc tomorrow.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at very bearish, at -1.07% versus SPX (S & P 500) today 5-28.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at neutral (near +0.00% versus SPX) today 5-28-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Check out the super bearish three month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC.

SPX (S & P 500) experienced a significant +0.59% rise in complacency/-0.59% decline in the wall of worry today 5-28, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +1.54% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -2.13%, which points to some significant SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness early on Friday 5-29-09, possibly after very early strength.

SPX's (S & P 500) cycle high/bearish spike/candle on Wednesday 5-20 was probably (very likely it appears, but, for the system I want to see 877.52 get filled for 75%+ confidence and 855.16 get filled for 90%+ confidence that SPX peaked at 930.17 on 5-8-09) a Short Term Wave 2 up cycle high (at 924.60), see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

SPX (S & P 500) has a bearish nearly perfect double top at 929.58/930.17 on 5-7/5-8-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which is probably the Wave B up cycle high of the bear market since 10-11-07.

See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.

The S & P 500 (SPX) Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle (since early 5-20) should bottom at 805ish (likely scenario), shortly after filling the downside gap at 811.08, chart at http://bit.ly/Ji24s.

An SPX (S & P 500,
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Short Term Wave 1 Downcycle (assumes SPX peaked at 930.17 on 5-8-09, likely) bottomed late on Friday 5-15-09 (down up down up down since 930.17 cycle high on 5-8-09), see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

The SPX (S & P 500) spike move that began late on Friday 5-15-09, very likely a countertrend Short Term Wave 2 Upcycle/upside gap filling action (
upside gap at 908.35 from 5-13-09 got filled late on 5-19),
peaked early on 5-20, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

Note
SPX's (S & P 500) bearish spike on a bearish dark candle Wednesday 5-20, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. A very large Short Term Wave 3 down move has probably begun.

SPX (S & P 500) ended the session late in Wave 2 up or early in Wave 3 down of Wave 3 down (probably began yesterday 5-27) of the Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle that began very early on Wednesday 5-20, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

Today's SPX (S & P 500) volume was below average (Yahoo's chart is a day behind right now, weird), which supports the bearish case, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, because, the big money didn't buy today's strength in a meaningful way. See the volume bars at the bottom of http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

There's a good chance that the 882.88 (filled on 5-21), 877.52 and 855.16
SPX (S & P 500) downside gaps will get filled soon. There are more downside gaps at 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, at 676.53.

Let me dispel the utter nonsense about a low VIX being bullish for stocks. The fact that VIX has dramatically collapsed RELATIVE to SPX (S & P 500) in recent months (SPX versus VIX is the Wall of Worry), fallen much more in % terms than SPX has risen, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, points to a likely dramatic SPX decline in the coming months.

If VIX had held up well compared to SPX
(S & P 500), then, a low VIX WOULD be bullish. It's the Wall of Worry, how well VIX holds up relative to SPX, that matters. Actually, very low VIX extremes/cycle lows tend to mark important SPX cycle highs, and, very high VIX extremes/cycle highs tend to mark important SPX cycle lows.

I'm officially adding volume to my arsenal. Volume reliably spikes near important cycle highs/lows. Since SPX (S & P 500) volume was average in late April, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, that was a sign that the market didn't peak yet. Since volume spiked on 5-7 and 5-8-09 (929.58/930.17 bearish SPX double top), that was potentially a sign of important peaking action.

Note also that the late April
SPX (S & P 500) spike/candle isn't that bearish/didn't look like an important cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

T
he S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 probably peaked at 930.17 very late on Friday 5-8 (probably also Wave B up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07), putting in a near perfect bearish double top with Thursday 5-7-09's cycle high at 929.58.

As I said at Twitter "If the S & P 500 (SPX) fills downside gap at 877.52, 75%+ chance rally ended, if 855.16 gets filled, then a 90%+ chance the rally's over."

Watch the SPX (S & P 500) downside gaps at 877.52, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, at 676.53.

When SPX (S & P 500) fills the downside gap at 855.16 (and hits 850ish shortly thereafter), then, it'll be very likely that the countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 has peaked, because, the uptrend line/channel since mid/late March will have clearly/decisively broken down, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, triggering an important sell signal/technical breakdown.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) probably peaked on Wednesday 5-6-09 just after the open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^ndx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

The S & P 500 (SPX) stochastics were extremely overbought on Friday 5-8-09, at 92.23 and 93.64, and, Williams %R was at -0.91, very close to the overbought maximum extreme at 0 (-100 is an oversold extreme).

The US Dollar's crash recently is a major negative for US equities near term, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd.

The recent huge S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Wave 5 (of Wave 5 really) type blowoff spike move of jives well with important peaking action.

Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data since 3-6-09, when a likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle began) is super bearish since 3-6-09, at -1.07% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-28, +0.54% on 5-27, -1.11% on 5-26, +0.44% on 5-22, +2.03% on 5-21, -0.34% on 5-20, -0.95% on 5-19, +0.64% on 5-18, -0.79% on 5-15, -2.90% on 5-14, +0.98% on 5-13, +0.63% on 5-12, +3.13% on 5-11, -1.91% on 5-8, +2.09% on 5-7, -3.62% on 5-6, -0.37% on 5-5, -1.81% on 5-4, -1.23% on 5-1, +0.00% on 4-30, +1.92% on 4-29, +0.19% on 4-28, +2.35% on 4-27, -3.71% on 4-24, -1.19% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.

Additionally, the collapse of the S & P 500 wall of worry (SPX versus VIX) recently, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, points to a collapse in SPX soon. Note that when VIX substantially outperforms SPX for a while, substantial SPX strength tends to occur shortly thereafter (since 3-6-09 in this case), and, vice versa.

From the 1576.09 S & P 500 (SPX) Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 10-11-07 to the cycle low at 666.79 on 3-6-09 the S & P 500 (SPX) did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern, with 1256.98 being the Wave 1 down cycle low (inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern), 1440.24 being the Wave 2 up cycle high, 741.02 being the Wave 3 down cycle low (inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern), 943.85 being the Wave 4 up cycle high, and, with 666.79 being the Wave 5 down cycle low, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is probably Wave A down of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07.

The
likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was probably Wave B up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. It's the first meaningful S & P 500 (SPX) rally of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is a sign that it's Wave B up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The unusual amount of very large spiking action since 3-6-09, even very early on, also jives well with countertrend and important peaking action.

One of today's Tweets: "UNG's doing a large countertrend spike, see http://bit.ly/U9Uw7."

Follow my live updates (the "play by play") at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.

As long as SPX (S & P 500) peaks below the 1-6-09 943.85 cycle high, see chart two at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, then, the upcoming cycle high (probably at 930.17 on Friday 5-8-09) will probably be, until proven otherwise, a countertrend Wave B type cycle high, that's probably Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, to be precise, and, is probably also Wave B up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07.

The Trade the Cycles system doesn't flash an important sell signal until the S & P 500 (SPX) uptrend line/channel since mid/late March clearly/decisively breaks down, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. However, given the extremely overbought condition on Friday 5-8-09/recently, the huge Wave 5 spike move recently, the other factors discussed above, and, caution is obviously in order.

The longer the lag time between when the super bearish
broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data beginning on 3-6-09) "kicks in," from when it originally became extremely bearish, the more important the upcoming cycle high will tend to be, because, the larger, longer, more important the upcycle or downcycle, the longer the lag time tends to be before an important indicator
"kicks in," and, the expected action (severe weakness in this case) begins.

Therefore
, the long lag time recently (recent weeks) points to an important cycle high occurring soon (probably at 930.17 on Friday 5-8-09), and, jives with it being a likely countertrend Wave B type cycle high, probably Wave B up of the intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, purchased on 4-22 at 8.85.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.79% versus the XOI today/on 5-28, -1.27% on 5-27, -0.45% on 5-26, +0.67% on 5-22, +0.48% on 5-21, -1.97% on 5-20, -0.49% on 5-19, -1.02% on 5-18, +1.06% on 5-15, +0.11% on 5-14, +1.45% on 5-13, +1.65% on 5-12, +1.01% on 5-11, -1.79% on 5-8, +1.48% on 5-7, -2.03% on 5-6, +0.33% on 5-5, -2.76% on 5-4, -1.30% on 5-1, -0.45% on 4-30, -0.35% on 4-29, +0.92% on 4-28, +1.44% on 4-27, -1.72% on 4-24, -1.57% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.23% on 4-21, +2.60% on 4-20, -1.00% on 4-17, -1.62% on 4-16, +0.95% on 4-15, +0.96% on 4-14, -1.90% on 4-13, -0.66% on 4-9, -0.47% on 4-8, +0.61% on 4-7, +1.71% on 4-6, -0.57% on 4-3, -2.70% on 4-2, -0.27% on 4-1.

Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle, that began on 3-6-09, is probably Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.62 (filled), 51.53, 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 50.63 (filled), 49.51 (filled), 48.47 (filled), 48.15.

SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84 (filled 3-26-09), 815.94 (filled 4-2-09),
832.86 (filled 4-2-09), has upside gaps at 835.48 (filled), 842.50 (filled), 858.73 (filled), 869.89 (filled), 869.60 (filled), 908.35 (filled), 903.47 (filled), 929.23, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at
907.39 (filled 5-12), 903.80 (filled 5-7), 882.88 (filled 5-21), 877.52, 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now/soon (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it. Not a recommendation.

Follow my live updates at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow after doing a search for tradethecycles. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. I just started using Twitter recently. I'm going to try to make timely live updates at Twitter and make it a real time extension of this Blog. Also, I opine about other subjects.

GDX/HUI/XAU's rollover upcycle since 4-17-09 is peaking/might have peaked (great opportunity to take profits, if that's your intention, I'm not suggesting what anyone should do), see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart. The strength since 4-17-09 is peaking in rollover mode/upside surprise, of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU.

The five day intraday NEM Lead Indicator closed at bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.

GDX/HUI/XAU are/were doing a rollover upcycle since 4-17-09 (
the NEM Lead Indicator closed at -1.01% versus the XAU today/on 5-28, -1.17% on 5-27, +0.26% on 5-26, -0.11% on 5-22, +0.96% on 5-21, -0.61% on 5-20, +0.37% on 5-19, -0.94% on 5-18, -0.98% on 5-15, +0.92% on 5-14, -0.21% on 5-13, +0.20% on 5-12, -1.41% on 5-11, -1.04% on 5-8, +1.53% on 5-7, -1.70% on 5-6, -0.03% on 5-5, -0.46% on 5-4, -4.10% on 5-1, +1.00% on 4-30, -1.03% on 4-29, -0.56% on 4-28, +2.63% on 4-27, +1.22% on 4-24, -1.75% on 4-23, -1.37% on 4-22, +0.95% on 4-21, -0.02% on 4-20, -0.93% on 4-17, -0.89% on 4-16, -0.03% on 4-15, +0.23% on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7) of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 41.22, 38.43, 33.11 (filled), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 34.87 and 34.37 (both filled 5-4), and, NEM has one at 43.89 (filled 5-7) and one at 41.68 (filled 5-5). NEM has downside gaps at 45.87, 43.57, 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 (filled) from 3-19's open.

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal 17 weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/



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