GDX (Gold Miners ETF) Will Probably Try To Fill Today 7-31's Downside Gap At 43.19 Early Tomorrow

GDX (Gold Miners ETF) will probably try to fill today 7-31's downside gap at 43.19 early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. There are downside gaps at 402.30 for HUI and at 89.52 for GLD.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's big short term Wave A downcycle since 7-15 very likely bottomed yesterday 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, note the very large bullish inverse spike on 7-30's candle.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.08% versus the XAU today/on 7-31.

The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.41% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 7-31.

The dramatic rebound after brief early severe weakness yesterday is a sign that GDX/HUI/XAU (maybe GLD) have probably bottomed short term/entered a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle yesterday 7-30, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low yesterday 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, note the very large bullish inverse spike on 7-30's candle.

I'll be looking to trade NEM long early tomorrow. NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

Waiting for NEM to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle (hit a 2% follow through buy signal), then, waiting to buy shortly after a short term Wave 2 downcycle bottoms is a good strategy.

NEM filled it's downside gap at 46.95 from 7-24 yesterday 7-30, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06. There are downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 (filled 7-30) for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.

Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave 1 up of a Wave 3 minor intermediate term upcycle that began 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.

Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered a Short Term Wave B Upcycle early on 7-30-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.08% versus the XAU today/on 7-31, was a bearish -0.55% on 7-30, was +0.05% on 7-29, was -0.42% on 7-28, was +0.12% on 7-25, was an extremely bullish +5.67% on 7-24, was a bullish +0.83% on 7-23, was an extremely bullish +2.51% on 7-22, was +0.71% on 7-21, was +0.62% on 7-18, was a very bearish -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15, -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.

SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B of the Short Term Wave 2 Downcycle since 7-23 probably peaked today 7-31 in rollover mode, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

I'll look to ultra short SPX or RUT via SDS or TWM in an intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle (probably early to mid session) tomorrow. SPX created a downside gap at 1263.20 on 7-30, that might get filled early tomorrow.

The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.41% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 7-31, and, obviously should turn bearish tomorrow.

It looks like there will be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

RUT's short term Wave 2 downcycle should bottom well below the Wave A of Wave 2 cycle low that occurred Monday 7-28, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.

Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23 and a downside gap at 57.45 on 7-30. SPX created a downside gap at 1263.20 on 7-30.

VIX rose an unusually large +8.20% today 7-31 versus SPX falling a significant -1.31%, which is an unusually large +6.89% rise in fear (+8.20% + -1.31% = +6.89% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Friday 8-1.

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.

SPX's big short term Wave 1 upcycle peaked in rollover mode on 7-23, and, is doing Wave C of the short term Wave 2 downcycle that began early on 7-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.

SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.41% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 7-31, was +0.26% on 7-30, was +0.21% on 7-29, was +0.43% on 7-28, was a bearish -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).

Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).

At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX's (S & P 500) Wave B Of The Short Term Wave 2 Downcycle Peaked Today In Rollover Mode

SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B of the Short Term Wave 2 Downcycle since 7-23 probably peaked today 7-31 in rollover mode, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. I'll look to ultra short SPX or RUT via SDS or TWM in an intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's Big Short Term Wave A Downcycle Very Likely Bottomed

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's big short term Wave A downcycle since 7-15 very likely bottomed, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, note the very large bullish inverse spike on today 7-30's candle.

The dramatic rebound after brief early severe weakness today is a sign that GDX/HUI/XAU (maybe GLD) have probably bottomed short term/entered a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle today 7-30, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low today 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, note the very large bullish inverse spike on today 7-30's candle. I'll be looking to trade NEM long. Waiting for NEM to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, then, waiting to buy shortly after a short term Wave 2 downcycle bottoms is a good strategy.

NEM's filled it's downside gap at 46.95 from 7-24 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06. There are downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 (filled 7-30) for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.

Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave 1 up of a Wave 3 minor intermediate term upcycle that began 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.

Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered a Short Term Wave B Upcycle early on 7-30-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.55% versus the XAU today/on 7-30, was +0.05% on 7-29, was a modestly bearish -0.42% on 7-28, was +0.12% on 7-25, was an extremely bullish +5.67% on 7-24, was a bullish +0.83% on 7-23, was an extremely bullish +2.51% on 7-22, was +0.71% on 7-21, was +0.62% on 7-18, was a very bearish -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15, -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.

SPX (S & P 500) is in Wave B peaking of the short term Wave 2 downcycle since Wednesday 7-23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. I'll look to trade RUT's (Russell 2000) short term Wave 2 downcycle ultra short via TWM tomorrow, once I'm convinced that Wave B of Wave 2 has peaked.

It looks like there will be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

RUT's short term Wave 2 downcycle should bottom well below the Wave A of Wave 2 cycle low that occurred Monday 7-28, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.

Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23 and a downside gap at 57.45 on 7-30. SPX created a downside gap at 1263.20 on 7-30.

VIX fell a very sharp -3.50% today 7-30 versus SPX rising a significant +1.67%, which is a significant +1.83% rise in complacency (-3.50% + +1.67% = -1.83% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Thursday 7-31.

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.

SPX's big short term Wave 1 upcycle peaked in rollover mode on 7-23, and, is doing Wave B of a short term Wave 2 downcycle since early on 7-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.

SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.26% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today 7-30, was +0.21% on 7-29, was +0.43% on 7-28, was a bearish -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).

Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).

At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's Big Short Term Wave A Downcycle Might Have But Probably Didn't Bottom

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's big short term Wave A downcycle since 7-15 might have (doubtful) bottomed today 7-29, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

However, since reliable lead indicator NEM doesn't appear to have bottomed (Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since early July (53.77 cycle high)) on it's daily chart (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) it's doubtful that GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's big short term Wave A downcycle since 7-15 has bottomed.

However, NEM's breakaway gap at 46.95 from 7-24 held today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, we'll see what happens tomorrow. I'll probably be looking to short NEM or GDX (Gold Miners ETF) tomorrow. I might also trade DZZ, the double short gold ETN.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.05% versus the XAU today/on 7-29, and, was a modestly bearish -0.42% versus the XAU yesterday/on 7-28.

NEM's cycle low last Thursday 7-24 appears to be Wave A of Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since early July (53.77 cycle high). NEM's bearish large spikes on it's daily candles the previous three days correctly pointed to weakness today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

The XAU had a bearish large spike on yesterday 7-28's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.

Watch downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.

Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.

Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the big Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 7-15-08 early on 7-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.05% versus the XAU today/on 7-29, was a modestly bearish -0.42% on 7-28, was +0.12% on 7-25, was an extremely bullish +5.67% on 7-24, was a bullish +0.83% on 7-23, was an extremely bullish +2.51% on 7-22, was +0.71% on 7-21, was +0.62% on 7-18, was a very bearish -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15, -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.

SPX (S & P 500) is in Wave B of the short term Wave 2 downcycle since Wednesday 7-23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

I'll look to trade RUT's (Russell 2000) short term Wave 2 downcycle ultra short via TWM tomorrow, once I'm convinced that Wave B of Wave 2 has peaked. It looks like there will be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

RUT's short term Wave 2 downcycle should bottom well below the Wave A of Wave 2 cycle low that occurred yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.

VIX fell an unusually large -9.25% today 7-29 versus SPX rising a sharp +2.34%, which is an unusually large +6.91% rise in complacency (-9.25% + +2.34% = -6.91% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant strength early on Wednesday 7-30, followed by weakness.

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.

SPX's big short term Wave 1 upcycle peaked in rollover mode on 7-23, and, is doing Wave B of a short term Wave 2 downcycle since early on 7-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23.

7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.

SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.21% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today 7-29, was a modestly bullish +0.43% on 7-28, was a bearish -0.67% on 7-25, was +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, was +0.39% on 7-18, was +0.06% on 7-17, was -0.32% on 7-16, was +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).

Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).

At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

Today's Early SPX (S & P 500) Strength Is Wave B Of Wave 2 Down (Update)

Update: Today 7-29's strength is Wave B of the short term Wave 2 downcycle since 7-23, not Wave B of Wave C of Wave 2. This makes sense, because Friday's very anemic bounce would have been an extremely anemic Wave B type move of the Wave 2 down, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Neither the intraday or the daily candlestick charts look like SPX's short term Wave 2 downcycle since 7-23 has bottomed. The candle on both the daily and the intraday chart yesterday would be unusual for an important cycle low. SPX's daily chart has a black candle with no inverse spike yesterday 7-28, let alone the usual large bullish inverse spike that normally/often occurs at important cycle lows.

Also, today's early action is spiking/peaking parabolic/vertical type action that looks like countertrend Wave B type action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, I'm looking to ultra short RUT (Russell 2000) via TWM.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's Big Short Term Wave A Downcycle Might Have Bottomed

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's big short term Wave A downcycle since 7-15 might have (doubtful) bottomed on Friday 7-25, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

They did an Elliott Wave up down up down pattern since early on 7-25, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, they will probably complete Wave 5 up early tomorrow 7-29, and, there might be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow. The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.42% versus the XAU today/on 7-28.

If NEM is in (but, NEM created a bullish breakaway gap at 46.95 late last week and the NEM Lead Indicator is "off the charts" bullish short term) a countertrend Wave B of Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since early July (53.77 cycle high), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's big short term Wave A downcycle since 7-15 didn't bottom yet.

NEM's cycle low last Thursday 7-24 appears to be Wave A of Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since early July (53.77 cycle high). NEM has been putting in bearish large spikes on it's daily candles the past three days, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

The XAU has a bearish large spike on today 7-28's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. I'll look to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) early tomorrow. I might also trade DZZ, the double short gold ETN.

NEM might also be but probably isn't in Wave B of Wave C not Wave B of Wave C of Wave C. This might be the correct count, because GDX/HUI/XAU might have entered a short term Wave B upcycle. The action tomorrow will probably clear up the very short term picture.

Watch downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.

Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.

Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the big Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 7-15-08 early on 7-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.42% versus the XAU today/on 7-28, was a slightly bullish +0.12% on 7-25, was an extremely bullish +5.67% on 7-24, was a bullish +0.83% on 7-23, was an extremely bullish +2.51% on 7-22, was +0.71% on 7-21, was +0.62% on 7-18, was a very bearish -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15, -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.

SPX (S & P 500) is probably in Wave C of the short term Wave 2 downcycle since Wednesday 7-23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Friday's very modest bounce was probably an extremely anemic countertrend Wave B of the short term Wave 2 downcycle. RUT's (Russell 2000) chart has a much more pronounced countertrend Wave B on Friday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.

It looks like the short term Wave 2 downcycle since Wednesday 7-23 will bottom tomorrow 7-29, and, RUT (Russell 2000) looks like the best long trade now. I'll look to trade RUT's short term Wave 3 upcycle ultra long via UWM. The Walmart Lead Indicator should be bullish tomorrow, if the short term Wave 2 downcycle has bottomed. It was a modestly bullish +0.43% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today 7-28.

VIX rose a very sharp +5.81% today 7-28 versus SPX falling a significant -1.86%, which is a very sharp +3.95% rise in fear (+5.81% + -1.86% = +3.95% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some substantial strength on Tuesday 7-29, following likely early weakness.

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.

SPX's big short term Wave 1 upcycle peaked in rollover mode on 7-23, and, is doing Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle since early on 7-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23.

7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.

SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.43% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today 7-28, was a bearish -0.67% on 7-25, was +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, was +0.39% on 7-18, was +0.06% on 7-17, was -0.32% on 7-16, was +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).

Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).

At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000

http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

The NEM Lead Indicator Is "Off The Charts" Bullish Short Term

The NEM Lead Indicator is "off the charts" bullish short term, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, NEM created a bullish breakaway gap at 46.95 late last week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, this early strength isn't that surprising.

Based on NEM's Elliott Wave count discussed below, plus GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's discussed in recent posts, I'm still looking to/might short NEM or GDX today. Today 7-28's intraday NEM Lead Indicator should turn clearly bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.

NEM is probably (but, NEM created a bullish breakaway gap at 46.95 late last week and the NEM Lead Indicator is "off the charts" bullish short term) in a countertrend Wave B of Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since early July (53.77 cycle high), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

NEM might also be in Wave B of Wave C not Wave B of Wave C of Wave C. This might be the correct count, because GDX/HUI/XAU might have entered a short term Wave B upcycle. I need to look at GDX/HUI/XAU's charts and NEM's chart and put more thought into it.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Weakness Is Likely Early On Monday (Updated, See Paragraph 6)

After maybe a pop at the open/brief strength early on GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) weakness is likely early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Today 7-25's strength following a plunge at the open is probably a countertrend Wave B type move, so, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) should try to fill it's downside gap at 42.65 early on Monday. I'll look to short GDX early on Monday, then, I'll look to trade reliable lead indicator NEM long later on.

After the session cycle high GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD did an intraday Wave A move down followed by an anemic intraday countertrend Wave B move up that was peaking near session's end, so, there might be a good shorting opportunity early on Monday, which jives with the slightly bullish NEM Lead Indicator today, at +0.12% versus the XAU, that became less bullish near session's end (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem), and, the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.67% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 7-25, so, the lead indicators jive with weakness early on Monday.

Reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining's (NEM) early cycle low at 48.10 today is very likely a Wave A type cycle low, following yesterday 7-24's gap up and early huge spike move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

NEM's session cycle high today at 50.01 is very likely a countertrend Wave B type cycle high, so, on Monday NEM should take out it's Wave A type cycle low that occurred at 48.10 early today, and, may bottom at 47.50ish, which assumes that yesterday 7-24's downside gap at 46.95 is a bullish breakaway gap.

Especially if yesterday 7-24's downside gap at 46.95 is a bullish breakaway gap, I'll look to trade NEM long on Monday, once I'm convinced it bottomed, that is, once I'm convinced that a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low has occurred, of a Wave 3 major intermediate term upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

However, NEM's cycle low on Wednesday 7-23 is probably only a Wave A cycle low of Wave C of Wave C down of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since early July, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, so, I'll have to rethink trading NEM long. The downside gap at 45.10 will probably get filled in the next week or two.

Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.

Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

Watch downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.

Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the big Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 7-15-08 early on 7-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.12% versus the XAU today/on 7-25, was an extremely bullish +5.67% on 7-24, was a bullish +0.83% on 7-23, was an extremely bullish +2.51% on 7-22, was +0.71% on 7-21, was +0.62% on 7-18, was a very bearish -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15, -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.

SPX's big short term Wave 1 upcycle peaked in rollover mode on 7-23, and, is doing Wave A of a short term Wave 2 downcycle since early on 7-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. I'll be looking to trade SPX, NDX, or RUT ultra short via SDS, QID or TWM, once Wave B of the short term Wave 2 downcycle peaks.

Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23.

7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.

SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.67% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 7-25, was +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, was +0.39% on 7-18, was +0.06% on 7-17, was -0.32% on 7-16, was +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).

Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).

At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

VIX fell a sharp -2.99% today 7-25 versus SPX rising a modest +0.42%, which is a sharp +2.57% rise in complacency (-2.99% + +0.42% = -2.57% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some severe weakness early on Monday 7-28.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

The NEM Lead Indicator Was An Extremely Bullish +5.67% Versus The XAU Today/on 7-24

The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +5.67% versus the XAU today/on 7-24. The fact that GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) didn't respond/rally today as they normally would, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, with a super bullish NEM Lead Indicator points to more downside tomorrow.

NEM created what appears to be a bullish breakaway gap at 46.95 at today 7-24's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. NEM obviously had a very big rally today. In the next session or two I'll look to trade NEM long, once I'm convinced that a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low has occurred, of a Wave 3 major intermediate term upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

I day traded NEM short today, with an entry point at 48.8301 and an exit point at 48.517. I might day trade NEM or GDX (Gold Miners ETF) or WMT short early tomorrow. I'll look to go long DZZ/double short gold (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dzz&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, double short gold ETN) early on Friday.

Watch downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed, see the last gold sector paragraph if you're a first time reader), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled today 7-24) and 42.65 for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are very oversold right now, with Williams %R near an extremely oversold -100, so, a significant bounce is likely at some point tomorrow.

Upside gaps were created yesterday at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the big Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 7-15-08 early on 7-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +5.67% versus the XAU today/on 7-24, was a bullish +0.83% on 7-23, was an extremely bullish +2.51% on 7-22, was +0.71% on 7-21, was +0.62% on 7-18, was a very bearish -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15, -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.

The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short!, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The 51,879 increase in the short gold futures and options contracts is one of the largest I've ever seen. They also traded aggressively long during the recent countertrend strength, adding 23,089 long gold futures and options contracts in the 5 day period ending 7-15-08.

Note that the savvy US Dollar Commercial Traders traded aggressively net long in the 5 day period ending 7-15-08, see the second from the last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.

Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.

SPX's big short term Wave 1 upcycle peaked in rollover mode yesterday 7-23, and, is doing Wave A of a short term Wave 2 downcycle since early yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. I'll be looking to trade SPX, NDX, or RUT ultra short via SDS, QID or TWM, once Wave B of the short term Wave 2 downcycle peaks.

Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 yesterday 7-23.

7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.

SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.38% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, was +0.39% on 7-18, was +0.06% on 7-17, was -0.32% on 7-16, was +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).

Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).

At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

VIX rose an unusually large +10.42% today 7-24 versus SPX falling a sharp -2.31%, which is an unusually large +8.11% rise in fear (+10.42% + -2.31% = +8.11% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Friday 7-25, followed by strength.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

GDX Filled 45.36 And NEM Filled 47.01 Today

GDX (Gold Miners ETF) filled it's downside gap at 45.36, HUI filled it's downside gap at 419.06, the XAU filled it's downside gap at 182.27, GLD filled it's downside gap at 91.50, and, NEM filled it's downside gap at 47.01 today.

I covered my GDX short at 44.95 versus an entry point at 46.341. Now watch downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed, see the last gold sector paragraph if you're a first time reader), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 and 42.65 for GDX.

Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD are very oversold right now, with Williams %R near an extremely oversold -100, so, a significant bounce is likely at some point early tomorrow. I'll look to reshort GDX early tomorrow.

Upside gaps were created today at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06. If GDX tries and fails to fill 47 early tomorrow, that will be a sign to go short.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the big Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 7-15-08 early yesterday 7-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

Yesterday 7-22's substantial decline was a Wave A type decline. The fact that the NEM Lead Indicator was able to become extremely bullish yesterday 7-22, at +2.51% versus the XAU on 7-22, and GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD didn't respond, was a very short term bearish sign.

GDX filled it's downside gap at 46.67, GLD filled it's downside gap at 93.53, and, HUI filled it's downside gap at 432.61 yesterday.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) very early on 7-15-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.83% versus the XAU today/on 7-23, was an extremely bullish +2.51% on 7-22, was a bullish +0.71% on 7-21, was a bullish +0.62% on 7-18, was a very bearish -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15, -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.

The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short!, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The 51,879 increase in the short gold futures and options contracts is one of the largest I've ever seen. They also traded aggressively long during the recent countertrend strength, adding 23,089 long gold futures and options contracts in the 5 day period ending 7-15-08.

Note that the savvy US Dollar Commercial Traders traded aggressively net long in the 5 day period ending 7-15-08, see the second from the last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm.

I'll look to go long DZZ/double short gold (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dzz&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, double short gold ETN) early on Thursday.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

In the second set of data at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/ in the far right column (not seasonally adjusted data) note that M2 money supply is contracting in recent months. Welcome to deflation and the gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 3-17-08.

Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.

Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.

SPX's big short term Wave 1 upcycle is peaking in rollover mode. I'll be looking to trade SPX, NDX, or RUT ultra short tomorrow 7-24 via SDS, QID or TWM.

Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 today 7-23.

7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.

SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.05% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, was a modestly bullish +0.39% on 7-18, was +0.06% on 7-17, was -0.32% on 7-16, was a bullish +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).

Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).

At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which is occurring) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

VIX rose a significant +1.09% today 7-23 versus SPX rising a modest +0.41%, which is a significant +1.50% rise in fear (+1.09% + +0.41% = +1.50% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant strength early on Thursday 7-24.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Entered Wave C Of The Big Short Term Wave A Downcycle Since 7-15-08

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the big Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 7-15-08 early today 7-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

Today's substantial decline appears to be a Wave A type decline, that might not have bottomed yet. The fact that the NEM Lead Indicator was able to become extremely bullish today, at +2.51% versus the XAU today/on 7-22, and GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD didn't respond, is a very short term bearish sign.

I shorted GDX (Gold Miners ETF) recently at 46.3401. NEM might fill downside gaps at 47.54 (filled 7-18) and 47.01, and, GDX might fill downside gaps at 46.67 (filled 7-22) and 45.36. Then watch downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed, see the last gold sector paragraph if you're a first time reader), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 and 42.65 for GDX.

GDX filled it's downside gap at 46.67, GLD filled it's downside gap at 93.53, and, HUI filled it's downside gap at 432.61 today.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) very early on 7-15-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.51% versus the XAU today/on 7-22, was a bullish +0.71% on 7-21, was a bullish +0.62% on 7-18, was a very bearish -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15, -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.

The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short!, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The 51,879 increase in the short gold futures and options contracts is one of the largest I've ever seen. They also traded aggressively long during the recent countertrend strength, adding 23,089 long gold futures and options contracts in the 5 day period ending 7-15-08.

Note that the savvy US Dollar Commercial Traders traded aggressively net long in the 5 day period ending 7-15-08, see the second from the last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm.

I'll look to go long DZZ/double short gold (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dzz&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, double short gold ETN) early on Wednesday. The worst thing that happens if I miss another big move is I buy DZZ when it does a short term Wave 2 downcycle.

HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.

In the second set of data at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/ in the far right column (not seasonally adjusted data) note that M2 money supply is contracting in recent months. Welcome to deflation and the gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 3-17-08.

Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.

GDX, HUI, and GLD created downside gaps at 46.67 (filled 7-22), 432.61 (filled 7-22), 93.53 (filled 7-22) at 7-11's open. The XAU doesn't have one according to Yahoo's data.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD created downside gaps at 7-10's open at 45.36, 419.06, 182.27, 91.50. NEM created a downside gap recently at 47.54 (filled).

Reliable lead indicator NEM's downside gaps to watch are 49.18 (filled 7-17), 47.54 (filled 7-18), 47.01, 45.10, 42.29, and 41.52. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 93.53 (filled), 91.50, 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.

Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. SPX's big short term Wave 1 upcycle is peaking in rollover mode. I'll be looking to trade SPX or RUT ultra short tomorrow 7-23 via SDS or TWM, or, I might trade NDX ultra long via QLD.

7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.

SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.

The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.70% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, was a modestly bullish +0.39% on 7-18, was +0.06% on 7-17, was -0.32% on 7-16, was a bullish +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).

Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).

At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which is occurring) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).

Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.

Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.

VIX fell an unusually large -8.42% today 7-22 versus SPX rising a significant +1.35%, which is an unusually large +7.07% rise in complacency (-8.42% + +1.35% = -7.07% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant strength early on Wednesday 7-23, followed by weakness.

The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

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