GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's Big Short Term Wave A Downcycle Very Likely Bottomed
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's big short term Wave A downcycle since 7-15 very likely bottomed, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, note the very large bullish inverse spike on today 7-30's candle.
The dramatic rebound after brief early severe weakness today is a sign that GDX/HUI/XAU (maybe GLD) have probably bottomed short term/entered a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle today 7-30, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low today 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, note the very large bullish inverse spike on today 7-30's candle. I'll be looking to trade NEM long. Waiting for NEM to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, then, waiting to buy shortly after a short term Wave 2 downcycle bottoms is a good strategy.
NEM's filled it's downside gap at 46.95 from 7-24 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06. There are downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 (filled 7-30) for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.
Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave 1 up of a Wave 3 minor intermediate term upcycle that began 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered a Short Term Wave B Upcycle early on 7-30-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.55% versus the XAU today/on 7-30, was +0.05% on 7-29, was a modestly bearish -0.42% on 7-28, was +0.12% on 7-25, was an extremely bullish +5.67% on 7-24, was a bullish +0.83% on 7-23, was an extremely bullish +2.51% on 7-22, was +0.71% on 7-21, was +0.62% on 7-18, was a very bearish -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15, -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.
SPX (S & P 500) is in Wave B peaking of the short term Wave 2 downcycle since Wednesday 7-23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. I'll look to trade RUT's (Russell 2000) short term Wave 2 downcycle ultra short via TWM tomorrow, once I'm convinced that Wave B of Wave 2 has peaked.
It looks like there will be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
RUT's short term Wave 2 downcycle should bottom well below the Wave A of Wave 2 cycle low that occurred Monday 7-28, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23 and a downside gap at 57.45 on 7-30. SPX created a downside gap at 1263.20 on 7-30.
VIX fell a very sharp -3.50% today 7-30 versus SPX rising a significant +1.67%, which is a significant +1.83% rise in complacency (-3.50% + +1.67% = -1.83% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Thursday 7-31.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
SPX's big short term Wave 1 upcycle peaked in rollover mode on 7-23, and, is doing Wave B of a short term Wave 2 downcycle since early on 7-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.26% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today 7-30, was +0.21% on 7-29, was +0.43% on 7-28, was a bearish -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
The dramatic rebound after brief early severe weakness today is a sign that GDX/HUI/XAU (maybe GLD) have probably bottomed short term/entered a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle today 7-30, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low today 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, note the very large bullish inverse spike on today 7-30's candle. I'll be looking to trade NEM long. Waiting for NEM to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, then, waiting to buy shortly after a short term Wave 2 downcycle bottoms is a good strategy.
NEM's filled it's downside gap at 46.95 from 7-24 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06. There are downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 (filled 7-30) for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.
Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave 1 up of a Wave 3 minor intermediate term upcycle that began 7-30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered a Short Term Wave B Upcycle early on 7-30-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.55% versus the XAU today/on 7-30, was +0.05% on 7-29, was a modestly bearish -0.42% on 7-28, was +0.12% on 7-25, was an extremely bullish +5.67% on 7-24, was a bullish +0.83% on 7-23, was an extremely bullish +2.51% on 7-22, was +0.71% on 7-21, was +0.62% on 7-18, was a very bearish -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15, -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.
SPX (S & P 500) is in Wave B peaking of the short term Wave 2 downcycle since Wednesday 7-23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. I'll look to trade RUT's (Russell 2000) short term Wave 2 downcycle ultra short via TWM tomorrow, once I'm convinced that Wave B of Wave 2 has peaked.
It looks like there will be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
RUT's short term Wave 2 downcycle should bottom well below the Wave A of Wave 2 cycle low that occurred Monday 7-28, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23 and a downside gap at 57.45 on 7-30. SPX created a downside gap at 1263.20 on 7-30.
VIX fell a very sharp -3.50% today 7-30 versus SPX rising a significant +1.67%, which is a significant +1.83% rise in complacency (-3.50% + +1.67% = -1.83% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Thursday 7-31.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
SPX's big short term Wave 1 upcycle peaked in rollover mode on 7-23, and, is doing Wave B of a short term Wave 2 downcycle since early on 7-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.26% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today 7-30, was +0.21% on 7-29, was +0.43% on 7-28, was a bearish -0.67% on 7-25, +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, +0.39% on 7-18, +0.06% on 7-17, -0.32% on 7-16, +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:22 PM
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