GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD Weakness Is Likely Early On Monday (Updated, See Paragraph 6)
After maybe a pop at the open/brief strength early on GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) weakness is likely early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Today 7-25's strength following a plunge at the open is probably a countertrend Wave B type move, so, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) should try to fill it's downside gap at 42.65 early on Monday. I'll look to short GDX early on Monday, then, I'll look to trade reliable lead indicator NEM long later on.
After the session cycle high GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD did an intraday Wave A move down followed by an anemic intraday countertrend Wave B move up that was peaking near session's end, so, there might be a good shorting opportunity early on Monday, which jives with the slightly bullish NEM Lead Indicator today, at +0.12% versus the XAU, that became less bullish near session's end (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem), and, the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.67% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 7-25, so, the lead indicators jive with weakness early on Monday.
Reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining's (NEM) early cycle low at 48.10 today is very likely a Wave A type cycle low, following yesterday 7-24's gap up and early huge spike move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
NEM's session cycle high today at 50.01 is very likely a countertrend Wave B type cycle high, so, on Monday NEM should take out it's Wave A type cycle low that occurred at 48.10 early today, and, may bottom at 47.50ish, which assumes that yesterday 7-24's downside gap at 46.95 is a bullish breakaway gap.
Especially if yesterday 7-24's downside gap at 46.95 is a bullish breakaway gap, I'll look to trade NEM long on Monday, once I'm convinced it bottomed, that is, once I'm convinced that a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low has occurred, of a Wave 3 major intermediate term upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
However, NEM's cycle low on Wednesday 7-23 is probably only a Wave A cycle low of Wave C of Wave C down of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since early July, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, so, I'll have to rethink trading NEM long. The downside gap at 45.10 will probably get filled in the next week or two.
Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
Watch downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.
Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the big Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 7-15-08 early on 7-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.12% versus the XAU today/on 7-25, was an extremely bullish +5.67% on 7-24, was a bullish +0.83% on 7-23, was an extremely bullish +2.51% on 7-22, was +0.71% on 7-21, was +0.62% on 7-18, was a very bearish -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15, -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
SPX's big short term Wave 1 upcycle peaked in rollover mode on 7-23, and, is doing Wave A of a short term Wave 2 downcycle since early on 7-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. I'll be looking to trade SPX, NDX, or RUT ultra short via SDS, QID or TWM, once Wave B of the short term Wave 2 downcycle peaks.
Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.67% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 7-25, was +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, was +0.39% on 7-18, was +0.06% on 7-17, was -0.32% on 7-16, was +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
VIX fell a sharp -2.99% today 7-25 versus SPX rising a modest +0.42%, which is a sharp +2.57% rise in complacency (-2.99% + +0.42% = -2.57% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some severe weakness early on Monday 7-28.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
After the session cycle high GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD did an intraday Wave A move down followed by an anemic intraday countertrend Wave B move up that was peaking near session's end, so, there might be a good shorting opportunity early on Monday, which jives with the slightly bullish NEM Lead Indicator today, at +0.12% versus the XAU, that became less bullish near session's end (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem), and, the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.67% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 7-25, so, the lead indicators jive with weakness early on Monday.
Reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining's (NEM) early cycle low at 48.10 today is very likely a Wave A type cycle low, following yesterday 7-24's gap up and early huge spike move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
NEM's session cycle high today at 50.01 is very likely a countertrend Wave B type cycle high, so, on Monday NEM should take out it's Wave A type cycle low that occurred at 48.10 early today, and, may bottom at 47.50ish, which assumes that yesterday 7-24's downside gap at 46.95 is a bullish breakaway gap.
Especially if yesterday 7-24's downside gap at 46.95 is a bullish breakaway gap, I'll look to trade NEM long on Monday, once I'm convinced it bottomed, that is, once I'm convinced that a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low has occurred, of a Wave 3 major intermediate term upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
However, NEM's cycle low on Wednesday 7-23 is probably only a Wave A cycle low of Wave C of Wave C down of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since early July, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, so, I'll have to rethink trading NEM long. The downside gap at 45.10 will probably get filled in the next week or two.
Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
Watch downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.
Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the big Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 7-15-08 early on 7-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.12% versus the XAU today/on 7-25, was an extremely bullish +5.67% on 7-24, was a bullish +0.83% on 7-23, was an extremely bullish +2.51% on 7-22, was +0.71% on 7-21, was +0.62% on 7-18, was a very bearish -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15, -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
SPX's big short term Wave 1 upcycle peaked in rollover mode on 7-23, and, is doing Wave A of a short term Wave 2 downcycle since early on 7-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. I'll be looking to trade SPX, NDX, or RUT ultra short via SDS, QID or TWM, once Wave B of the short term Wave 2 downcycle peaks.
Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.67% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 7-25, was +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, was +0.39% on 7-18, was +0.06% on 7-17, was -0.32% on 7-16, was +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
VIX fell a sharp -2.99% today 7-25 versus SPX rising a modest +0.42%, which is a sharp +2.57% rise in complacency (-2.99% + +0.42% = -2.57% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some severe weakness early on Monday 7-28.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:37 PM
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