SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) Probably Bottomed Yesterday 7-15
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed yesterday 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
Yesterday 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart, then, NDX's chart and candle on 7-15 looks better than SPX's.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low yesterday 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low yesterday 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
So, once NDX and RUT pull back and do a short term Wave 2 downcycle the next few days, after probably more short term Wave 1 during part of tomorrow 7-17's session, I'll look to trade ultra long via QLD and UWM early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle in the middle to late part of this week. I might day trade ultra short via SDS, QID, or TWM tomorrow, once I'm convinced that the short term Wave 1 upcycle has peaked.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.32% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 7-16, was a bullish +0.97% on 7-15, was a bullish +0.94% on 7-14, was a bearish -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, if a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurs, then SPX has probably bottomed (probably did on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which is occurring now/since 7-15-08) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
VIX fell an unusually large -9.38% today 7-16 versus SPX rising a significant +1.60%, which is an unusually large +7.78% rise in complacency (-9.38% + +1.60% = -7.78% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant strength early on Thursday 7-17, followed by weakness.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) very early yesterday 7-15-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The severe weakness after very brief strength yesterday 7-15-08 looks like the start of the Wave C minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Today's NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.31% versus the XAU on 7-16, it was a bullish +0.52% on 7-15, but, it's extremely bearish recently, at -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.
My GDX short at 46.3401 is looking a lot better, and, it could be near break even or in plus territory tomorrow or Friday. The volatility of gold stocks makes them great trading vehicles, but, they are obviously very risky if you get the cycles wrong. My mistake was day trading GDX short before knowing that the Wave B upcycle had peaked, and, I also mistakenly held it overnight because the trade was underwater, but, because of the great Trade the Cycles system, even when I screw up I usually still make money.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD (GLD might not have peaked yet/could lag the stocks as it tends to do) peaked in rollover mode early yesterday 7-15 versus the May and July 1 Cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, which jives with the extremely bearish NEM Lead Indicator recently, at a modestly bullish +0.31% versus the XAU on 7-16, at a bullish +0.52% on 7-15, at -1.91% on 7-14, at +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.
It also jives with the extremely bearish gold COT data in recent weeks, since the savvy gold Commercial Traders added a massive 43,755 short gold futures and options contracts in the 5 day period ending 7-1-08, and, they added 9,009 short gold futures and options contracts in the 5 day period ending 7-8-08.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
In the second set of data at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/ in the far right column (not seasonally adjusted data) note that M2 money supply is contracting in recent months. Welcome to deflation and the gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 3-17-08.
Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.
GDX, HUI, and GLD created downside gaps at 46.67, 432.61, 93.53 at 7-11's open. The XAU doesn't have one according to Yahoo's data.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD created downside gaps at 7-10's open at 46.35, 419.06, 182.27, 91.50. NEM created a downside gap today at 47.54.I shorted GDX at 46.3401 on 7-10.
I'll look to cover GDX after it probably fills downside gaps at 46.67 and 45.36 in the next week or so. 43.88 and 42.65 are also downside gaps for GDX.Reliable lead indicator NEM's downside gaps to watch are 49.18, 47.54, 47.01, 45.10, 42.29, and 41.52. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 93.53, 91.50, 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Yesterday 7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart, then, NDX's chart and candle on 7-15 looks better than SPX's.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low yesterday 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low yesterday 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
So, once NDX and RUT pull back and do a short term Wave 2 downcycle the next few days, after probably more short term Wave 1 during part of tomorrow 7-17's session, I'll look to trade ultra long via QLD and UWM early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle in the middle to late part of this week. I might day trade ultra short via SDS, QID, or TWM tomorrow, once I'm convinced that the short term Wave 1 upcycle has peaked.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.32% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 7-16, was a bullish +0.97% on 7-15, was a bullish +0.94% on 7-14, was a bearish -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, if a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurs, then SPX has probably bottomed (probably did on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which is occurring now/since 7-15-08) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
VIX fell an unusually large -9.38% today 7-16 versus SPX rising a significant +1.60%, which is an unusually large +7.78% rise in complacency (-9.38% + +1.60% = -7.78% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant strength early on Thursday 7-17, followed by weakness.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) very early yesterday 7-15-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The severe weakness after very brief strength yesterday 7-15-08 looks like the start of the Wave C minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Today's NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.31% versus the XAU on 7-16, it was a bullish +0.52% on 7-15, but, it's extremely bearish recently, at -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.
My GDX short at 46.3401 is looking a lot better, and, it could be near break even or in plus territory tomorrow or Friday. The volatility of gold stocks makes them great trading vehicles, but, they are obviously very risky if you get the cycles wrong. My mistake was day trading GDX short before knowing that the Wave B upcycle had peaked, and, I also mistakenly held it overnight because the trade was underwater, but, because of the great Trade the Cycles system, even when I screw up I usually still make money.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD (GLD might not have peaked yet/could lag the stocks as it tends to do) peaked in rollover mode early yesterday 7-15 versus the May and July 1 Cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, which jives with the extremely bearish NEM Lead Indicator recently, at a modestly bullish +0.31% versus the XAU on 7-16, at a bullish +0.52% on 7-15, at -1.91% on 7-14, at +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.
It also jives with the extremely bearish gold COT data in recent weeks, since the savvy gold Commercial Traders added a massive 43,755 short gold futures and options contracts in the 5 day period ending 7-1-08, and, they added 9,009 short gold futures and options contracts in the 5 day period ending 7-8-08.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
In the second set of data at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/ in the far right column (not seasonally adjusted data) note that M2 money supply is contracting in recent months. Welcome to deflation and the gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 3-17-08.
Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.
GDX, HUI, and GLD created downside gaps at 46.67, 432.61, 93.53 at 7-11's open. The XAU doesn't have one according to Yahoo's data.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD created downside gaps at 7-10's open at 46.35, 419.06, 182.27, 91.50. NEM created a downside gap today at 47.54.I shorted GDX at 46.3401 on 7-10.
I'll look to cover GDX after it probably fills downside gaps at 46.67 and 45.36 in the next week or so. 43.88 and 42.65 are also downside gaps for GDX.Reliable lead indicator NEM's downside gaps to watch are 49.18, 47.54, 47.01, 45.10, 42.29, and 41.52. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 93.53, 91.50, 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:18 PM
1 Comments:
I'll be looking to go long GMO, SUF, and, WWAT (needs to establish a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low) appears to have put in a slightly higher bullish double bottom, but, at least waiting for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle/buy signal, then buying after a short term Wave 2 downcycle/early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, makes sense.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:31 PM
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