GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's Big Short Term Wave A Downcycle Might Have Bottomed
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's big short term Wave A downcycle since 7-15 might have (doubtful) bottomed on Friday 7-25, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
They did an Elliott Wave up down up down pattern since early on 7-25, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, they will probably complete Wave 5 up early tomorrow 7-29, and, there might be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow. The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.42% versus the XAU today/on 7-28.
If NEM is in (but, NEM created a bullish breakaway gap at 46.95 late last week and the NEM Lead Indicator is "off the charts" bullish short term) a countertrend Wave B of Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since early July (53.77 cycle high), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's big short term Wave A downcycle since 7-15 didn't bottom yet.
NEM's cycle low last Thursday 7-24 appears to be Wave A of Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since early July (53.77 cycle high). NEM has been putting in bearish large spikes on it's daily candles the past three days, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
The XAU has a bearish large spike on today 7-28's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. I'll look to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) early tomorrow. I might also trade DZZ, the double short gold ETN.
NEM might also be but probably isn't in Wave B of Wave C not Wave B of Wave C of Wave C. This might be the correct count, because GDX/HUI/XAU might have entered a short term Wave B upcycle. The action tomorrow will probably clear up the very short term picture.
Watch downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.
Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the big Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 7-15-08 early on 7-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.42% versus the XAU today/on 7-28, was a slightly bullish +0.12% on 7-25, was an extremely bullish +5.67% on 7-24, was a bullish +0.83% on 7-23, was an extremely bullish +2.51% on 7-22, was +0.71% on 7-21, was +0.62% on 7-18, was a very bearish -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15, -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.
SPX (S & P 500) is probably in Wave C of the short term Wave 2 downcycle since Wednesday 7-23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Friday's very modest bounce was probably an extremely anemic countertrend Wave B of the short term Wave 2 downcycle. RUT's (Russell 2000) chart has a much more pronounced countertrend Wave B on Friday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
It looks like the short term Wave 2 downcycle since Wednesday 7-23 will bottom tomorrow 7-29, and, RUT (Russell 2000) looks like the best long trade now. I'll look to trade RUT's short term Wave 3 upcycle ultra long via UWM. The Walmart Lead Indicator should be bullish tomorrow, if the short term Wave 2 downcycle has bottomed. It was a modestly bullish +0.43% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today 7-28.
VIX rose a very sharp +5.81% today 7-28 versus SPX falling a significant -1.86%, which is a very sharp +3.95% rise in fear (+5.81% + -1.86% = +3.95% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some substantial strength on Tuesday 7-29, following likely early weakness.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
SPX's big short term Wave 1 upcycle peaked in rollover mode on 7-23, and, is doing Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle since early on 7-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.43% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today 7-28, was a bearish -0.67% on 7-25, was +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, was +0.39% on 7-18, was +0.06% on 7-17, was -0.32% on 7-16, was +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000
http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
They did an Elliott Wave up down up down pattern since early on 7-25, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, they will probably complete Wave 5 up early tomorrow 7-29, and, there might be a good shorting opportunity early tomorrow. The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.42% versus the XAU today/on 7-28.
If NEM is in (but, NEM created a bullish breakaway gap at 46.95 late last week and the NEM Lead Indicator is "off the charts" bullish short term) a countertrend Wave B of Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since early July (53.77 cycle high), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD's big short term Wave A downcycle since 7-15 didn't bottom yet.
NEM's cycle low last Thursday 7-24 appears to be Wave A of Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since early July (53.77 cycle high). NEM has been putting in bearish large spikes on it's daily candles the past three days, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
The XAU has a bearish large spike on today 7-28's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. I'll look to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) early tomorrow. I might also trade DZZ, the double short gold ETN.
NEM might also be but probably isn't in Wave B of Wave C not Wave B of Wave C of Wave C. This might be the correct count, because GDX/HUI/XAU might have entered a short term Wave B upcycle. The action tomorrow will probably clear up the very short term picture.
Watch downside gaps at 45.10, 42.29 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed), and 41.52 (shouldn't get filled as previously discussed) for NEM, and, at 43.88 (filled on 7-24) and 42.65 for GDX. Downside gaps to watch for GLD (Gold ETF) are 91.50 (filled 7-23), 87.42, 85.83, and, 84.58. Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06.
Reliable lead indicator NEM is in Wave C down of a Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 45.10 on 5-15 and 47.90 on 6-6 (filled 6-10), and, another one at 46.73 on 5-16 that got filled on 5-29 (46.50 cycle low on 5-29). NEM filled it's bearish upside breakaway gap at 48.72 from 3-20 on 5-15, which confirmed the 5% follow through major buy signal.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a Wave 2 major intermediate term cycle low on 5-1 at 42.36 (StockCharts uses slightly different price data ???, for reasons which escape me, there obviously needs to be consistency), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, then, obviously 42.29 and 41.52 shouldn't get filled/should be bullish breakaway gaps. Wave 1 peaked in January at 57.44 and NEM entered a Cyclical Bull Market in June 2007 after putting in a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 37.84.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the big Short Term Wave A Downcycle since 7-15-08 early on 7-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD entered Wave C of the Wave A Major Intermediate Term Downcycle (since mid March) on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.42% versus the XAU today/on 7-28, was a slightly bullish +0.12% on 7-25, was an extremely bullish +5.67% on 7-24, was a bullish +0.83% on 7-23, was an extremely bullish +2.51% on 7-22, was +0.71% on 7-21, was +0.62% on 7-18, was a very bearish -1.91% on 7-17, +0.31% on 7-16, +0.52% on 7-15, -1.91% on 7-14, +0.22% on 7-11, +0.65% on 7-10, -0.71% on 7-9, -0.28% on 7-8, -0.85% on 7-7, -0.80% on 7-3, -0.82% on 7-2, +1.15% on 7-1, -1.38% on 6-30, -2.45% on 6-27, -0.95% on 6-26, -0.08% on 6-25.
SPX (S & P 500) is probably in Wave C of the short term Wave 2 downcycle since Wednesday 7-23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Friday's very modest bounce was probably an extremely anemic countertrend Wave B of the short term Wave 2 downcycle. RUT's (Russell 2000) chart has a much more pronounced countertrend Wave B on Friday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
It looks like the short term Wave 2 downcycle since Wednesday 7-23 will bottom tomorrow 7-29, and, RUT (Russell 2000) looks like the best long trade now. I'll look to trade RUT's short term Wave 3 upcycle ultra long via UWM. The Walmart Lead Indicator should be bullish tomorrow, if the short term Wave 2 downcycle has bottomed. It was a modestly bullish +0.43% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today 7-28.
VIX rose a very sharp +5.81% today 7-28 versus SPX falling a significant -1.86%, which is a very sharp +3.95% rise in fear (+5.81% + -1.86% = +3.95% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some substantial strength on Tuesday 7-29, following likely early weakness.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) probably finally bottomed on 7-15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut.
SPX's big short term Wave 1 upcycle peaked in rollover mode on 7-23, and, is doing Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle since early on 7-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Walmart (WMT) created an upside gap at 59.06 on 7-23.
7-15's very bullish candles and the strong short term Wave 1 upcycle suggest that SPX/NDX/RUT probably finally bottomed. RUT's chart is the most bullish, with the largest bullish inverse spike and best chart.
SPX probably put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low on 7-15-08, and, NDX/RUT probably put in a Wave 2 minor intermediate term cycle low on 7-15-08, for the countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 3-17-08 for NDX and since 3-10-08 for RUT.
The WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.43% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today 7-28, was a bearish -0.67% on 7-25, was +0.38% on 7-24, was an extremely bearish -2.05% on 7-23, was a very bullish +1.70% on 7-22, was a very bearish -1.00% on 7-21, was +0.39% on 7-18, was +0.06% on 7-17, was -0.32% on 7-16, was +0.97% on 7-15, +0.94% on 7-14, -0.50% on 7-11, was a very bearish -1.50% on 7-10, -0.16% on 7-9, +2.16% on 7-8, +1.39% on 7-7, +0.07% on 7-3, +0.89% on 7-2, +1.10% on 7-1, -0.31% on 6-30, -0.56% on 6-27, +0.72% on 6-26, +0.82% on 6-25, +1.48% on 6-24, +0.67% on 6-23. The more important/longer the cycle is that's bottoming or peaking the longer the lag time tends to be before the indication kicks in, in this case strength (began on 7-15-08).
Trade the Cycles won't indicate that a major cycle low very likely occurred until a 5% follow through major buy signal occurs, but, since a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred, then SPX has probably bottomed (on 7-15-08).
At least waiting for a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle (typically about 2 to 3 sessions, which occurred/peaked on 7-23) before looking to trade long overnight, then, one should wait for a pullback/short term Wave 2 downcycle (typically about 1.5 to 3 sessions, began early on 7-23) before trading long overnight (look to go long early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, that typically lasts 3 to 5 sessions).
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low (probably did on 7-15-08) watch upside gaps at 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000
http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:34 PM
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