Trade the Cycles

Monday, August 31, 2009

SPX's Wave B Intermediate Term Upcycle Since 3-6-09 Might Have Peaked Friday 8-28-09

SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wave B/Wave 4 Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 (see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/08/spx-s-p-500-cyclical-bear-market-since.html, The SPX Cyclical Bear Market Elliott Wave Count) might have peaked on Friday 8-28-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, rolling over dramatically the prior week, which is a very bearish sign. Also, SPX's Monthly Upcycle since 7-8-09 is rolling over.

There was massive Fed Credit (Crack) as usual today 8-31-09 ($14.735 Billion), see http://bit.ly/9lBIG. This means that today's SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upside gap at 1028.93 might get filled tomorrow.

Also, the SPX
(S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Volatility Index VIX rose +5.05% today (versus SPX's -0.81% decline, it's really the relative aspect that's important), which is a very sharp rise in fear that may result in substantial strength early tomorrow.

SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength since very early in the session appears to be an intraday countertrend Wave 4 up (implies that 1028.93 upside gap from today's open won't get filled; if it wasn't for massive Fed Credit it probably wouldn't get filled. Friday's strength from mid session to shortly before the close was probably Wave 2 up, NOT Wave 4 up as discussed on Friday), see http://bit.ly/ggZoR, which means that there should be some SPX/market strength early on Tuesday. Use the one day chart to do the Elliott Wave count, see http://bit.ly/A9Qr5.

An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Rollover Upcycle, fueled by massive Fed Credit, +$45.433 Billion in the five day period ending 8-19-09 and much more since then (massive propping by Benny & Feds, see http://bit.ly/9lBIG), that had been in effect since very late on Monday 8-17-09, see http://bit.ly/ggZoR, appears to have possibly peaked very early on Friday 8-28-09, rolling over dramatically versus Tuesday 8-25-09's cycle high. Watch SPX's downside gap at 1007.37 now, and, watch the upside gap at 1028.93 from today's open.

SPX's
(S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap at 975.15 will probably get filled in the next week or so. 940.38 and 905.84 are the next downside gaps after that.

Benny will soon have to yield to the power of cycles and the natural way of things!
(From Moi on Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles). I'm looking forward to this.

Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a very large bearish spike on a bearish black candle (close below the open) on 8-25-09, WMT put in another bearish spike on 8-26, and, WMT put in another large bearish spike today 8-31, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

The
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Rollover Upcycle since very late on Monday 8-17-09 appears to have been both the Monthly Upcycle since 7-8-09 and the likely countertrend Wave B/Wave 4 Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 peaking in rollover mode, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upcycle since very late on Monday 8-17 did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (large Wave 5 up began very late 8-19), see http://bit.ly/ggZoR.

The fact that SPX
(S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume picked dramatically on Friday 8-21 and Friday 8-28, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT (volume bar at bottom of chart and volume data at top left hand side), to 4.836 billion shares and 4.744 billion shares respectively, from 3.948 billion shares on Thursday 8-20 (4.279 billion shares today 8-31 versus EMA (60) at 4.451 billion shares), is probably a bearish sign, indicating that major and smart traders are/were heading for the exits.

"Fed pumping" was probably/very likely a major factor the past few weeks (at least), see
http://bit.ly/9lBIG. Also, futures and options expiration (occurred Friday 8-21, usually the third Friday of the month, unless it's a holiday) might have been a factor.

Fed Credit spiked by a substantial +$14.161 Billion in the five day period ending 8-26-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, which explains some/much of the recent SPX/market strength. Even though the daily credit injections were huge in the five day period ending 8-26-09, the same was true of the previous week, see below, so, the delta/change from the previous week wasn't massive, but, it was substantial.

Fed Credit spiked by a massive
+$45.433 Billion in the five day period ending 8-19-09, which explains some/much of the recent SPX/market strength.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at bearish (-0.50% to -0.99% vs SPX) today 8-31-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.

Today 8-31's broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at modestly bullish, +0.30% vs SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT).

The market had clearly negative breadth today 8-31-09 (NYSE up to down volume appears to be incorrect again), see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances, which is a bearish (breadth has generally been deteriorating in recent weeks) indication.

The way SPX
(S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) defied gravity in the Wave 5 Monthly Rollover Upcycle that began on 7-8-09 and is peaking in rollover mode (compare the declines in July/August (until 8-7-09) to those that occurred in March, April, May, and June), see http://bit.ly/ggZoR, jives with it being a final Wave 5 type of blowoff spike move, of the likely countertrend Wave B/Wave 4 Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09.

The intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs/relative to VIX) collapsed (the relative aspect is what's important) since very early in the session today 8-31-09, which is a bearish indication for early Tuesday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc. Also, the huge very early VIX spike is a bearish unusually large rise in fear.

The five day intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry chart (SPX vs VIX) points to some potentially severe weakness early on Tuesday (watch the 1007.37 downside gap and the 1028.93 upside gap, strength followed by weakness is a likely scenario), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, because, it collapsed (the relative aspect is what's important) since very early in the session today 8-31-09.

SPX (S & P 500) experienced a very sharp +4.24% rise in fear/+4.24% rise in the Wall of Worry today 8-31, since SPX (S & P 500) fell -0.81% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX rising +5.05%, which (typically) points to substantial SPX (S & P 500)/market strength early on Tuesday 9-1-09.

Normally (I'm leaving this in for reference purposes) an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).

Follow my live updates (the "play by play") at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.

I'll be looking to trade ultra short via QID, SDS, ERY, TZA, SRS, FAZ etc this week/soon.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

Keep in mind that the market tends to fall faster than it rises, larger % declines than % gains tend to occur, and, some of those declines will probably be from high levels.

The three month indicators are off the charts bearish.

Check out the super bearish three month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC.

Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is off the charts bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.

There may be clear signs after an important
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) cycle high occurs, such as a very sharp decline shortly after SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) peaks, that may leave a very bearish spike/candle, and, a large bearish breakaway upside gap may occur.

Data and indicators can only be evaluated after (are secondary to) understanding SPX's (or whatever index, stock or commodity you're trading or investing in) cycles, Elliott Wave count, and gaps, which are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system.


Gaps tend to provide a roadmap for where an index/stock/commodity will go, when used in concert with cycles and Elliott Wave patterns (basis/crux of Trade the Cycles). In the upcoming Short Term Wave A Downcycle SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably fill some or all of the 1025.57 (filled), 1007.37, 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, and 811.08 downside gaps.

Fed Credit spiked by a substantial +$14.161 Billion in the five day period ending 8-26-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ (Following the money, Fed and Consumer Credit data, and, insider trading activity, is obviously very important).

Weekly Fed Credit data is very important, because, it provides a good idea of how much ammo the large and small program traders have.

SPX (S & P 500) will probably try to fill downside gaps at 1025.57 (filled), 1007.37, 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, and 811.08 in the near future. There are more downside gaps at 768.54, and, at 676.53.

"The SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market (Since 10-11-07) Elliott Wave Count," see http://bit.ly/1036Td (The Bear lives).

SPX's (S & P 500) bearish double top in March 2000/October 2007 is the bull market since 1932 peaking, which is the main problem that the US and the world faces, see http://bit.ly/FypjN.

Keep in mind that cycles plus the Elliott Wave count and gaps are the primary market timing consideration. They are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system. Indicators, data, tools, etc are used/evaluated after knowing what the cycles, Elliott Wave count, and gaps are.

However, an exception to the above is that candlestick charts help to determine or finetune what the cycles and
Elliott Wave count are.

See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.

Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data since 3-6-09, when a likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle began) is super bearish since 3-6-09, at +0.30% versus the S & P 500 today/on 8-31, -0.01% on 8-28, -1.36% on 8-27, +0.24% on 8-26, -0.01% on 8-25, +0.42% on 8-24, -2.54% on 8-21, -1.01% on 8-20, -0.09% on 8-19, -1.42% on 8-18, +2.01% on 8-17, +0.68% on 8-14, +2.02% on 8-13, -0.21% on 8-12, +1.91% on 8-11, +1.20% on 8-10, -0.71% on 8-7, +0.11% on 8-6, -1.01% on 8-5, -0.28% on 8-4, -1.61% on 8-3, -0.27% on 7-31, +0.05% on 7-30, +1.38% on 7-29, +0.16% on 7-28, -0.24% on 7-27, +0.07% on 7-24, -3.16% on 7-23, +0.68% on 7-22, -0.28% on 7-21, -0.46% on 7-20, +0.00% on 7-17, -0.94% on 7-16, -2.09% on 7-15, +0.10% on 7-14, -1.94% on 7-13, -0.66% on 7-10, -0.95% on 7-9, +1.28% on 7-8, +2.20% on 7-7, -0.39% on 7-6, +1.76% on 7-2, -0.58% on 7-1, +0.19% on 6-30, -0.64% on 6-29, -0.91% on 6-26, -0.82% on 6-25, -0.32% on 6-24, -0.72% on 6-23, +3.93% on 6-22, -1.36% on 6-19, -0.59% on 6-18, +0.78% on 6-17, +0.84% on 6-16, -0.39% on 6-15, +0.91% on 6-12, -2.09% on 6-11, -0.74% on 6-10, -0.74% on 6-9, -0.41% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -1.17% on 6-4, +3.27% on 6-3, -1.50% on 6-2, -0.87% on 6-1, -0.98% on 5-29, -1.07% on 5-28, +0.54% on 5-27, -1.11% on 5-26, +0.44% on 5-22, +2.03% on 5-21, -0.34% on 5-20, -0.95% on 5-19, +0.64% on 5-18, -0.79% on 5-15, -2.90% on 5-14, +0.98% on 5-13, +0.63% on 5-12, +3.13% on 5-11, -1.91% on 5-8, +2.09% on 5-7, -3.62% on 5-6, -0.37% on 5-5, -1.81% on 5-4, -1.23% on 5-1, +0.00% on 4-30, +1.92% on 4-29, +0.19% on 4-28, +2.35% on 4-27, -3.71% on 4-24, -1.19% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.

The
likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. It's the first meaningful S & P 500 (SPX) rally of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is a sign that it's Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The unusual amount of very large spiking action since 3-6-09, even very early on, also jives well with countertrend and important peaking action.

The longer the lag time between when the super bearish
broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator "kicks in," from when it originally became extremely bearish, the more important the cycle high tends to be, because, the larger, longer, more important the upcycle or downcycle, the longer the lag time tends to be before an important indicator
"kicks in," and, the expected action (severe weakness in this case) begins.

I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, purchased on 4-22 at 88.50 (1:10 stock split on 7-9).

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.09% versus the XOI today/on 8-31, -0.69% on 8-28, -0.94% on 8-27, +0.33% on 8-26, -0.42% on 8-25, +1.26% on 8-24, -0.95% on 8-21, -0.08% on 8-20, +0.69% on 8-19, -1.35% on 8-18, +0.68% on 8-17, +0.23% on 8-14, -1.13% on 8-13, +0.30% on 8-12, -0.20% on 8-11, -0.47% on 8-10, -0.18% on 8-7, +0.42% on 8-6, +0.22% on 8-5, +0.21% on 8-4, -1.65% on 8-3, -1.19% on 7-31, -2.21% on 7-30, +1.39% on 7-29, +0.18% on 7-28, -0.04% on 7-27, +0.14% on 7-24, -0.31% on 7-23, +0.08% on 7-22, +1.52% on 7-21, -1.51% on 7-20, +0.08% on 7-17, -0.82% on 7-16, -0.09% on 7-15, -0.19% on 7-14, -1.21% on 7-13, +0.01% on 7-10, -1.56% on 7-9, -0.07% on 7-8, -0.24% on 7-7, +0.96% on 7-6, +0.74% on 7-2, +0.55% on 7-1, -0.21% on 6-30, +0.71% on 6-29, -0.54% on 6-26, +0.33% on 6-25, -0.90% on 6-24, -1.22% on 6-23, +1.36% on 6-22, -0.40% on 6-19, +0.10% on 6-18, +1.47% on 6-17, -0.25% on 6-16, +1.45% on 6-15, +0.93% on 6-12, -0.53% on 6-11, +0.39% on 6-10, -0.90% on 6-9, +0.37% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -0.59% on 6-4, +3.51% on 6-3, +2.44% on 6-2, +0.17% on 6-1, -1.65% on 5-29, -1.79% on 5-28, -1.27% on 5-27, -0.45% on 5-26, +0.67% on 5-22, +0.48% on 5-21, -1.97% on 5-20, -0.49% on 5-19, -1.02% on 5-18, +1.06% on 5-15, +0.11% on 5-14, +1.45% on 5-13, +1.65% on 5-12, +1.01% on 5-11, -1.79% on 5-8, +1.48% on 5-7, -2.03% on 5-6, +0.33% on 5-5, -2.76% on 5-4, -1.30% on 5-1.

Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 49.15 (filled), 49.84 (filled), 51.07 (filled), 51.80, 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 51.55 (filled), 50.51, 49.76, 49.37 (filled).

SPX (S & P 500) has a bearish breakaway upside gap at
1028.93, 1012.73 (filled), 1010.48 (filled), 1004.09 (filled), 979.62 (filled), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at
1025.57 (filled), 1007.37, 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now/soon (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it. Not a recommendation.

Follow my live updates at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow after doing a search for tradethecycles. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. I just started using Twitter recently. I'm going to try to make timely live updates at Twitter and make it a real time extension of this Blog. Also, I opine about other subjects.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 probably peaked on 6-1-09, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.

GDX/HUI/XAU's rollover upcycle since 4-17-09 peaked on 6-1-09, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

Wave 5/Wave C down of the huge
GDX/HUI/XAU Monthly Wave A Downcycle since 6-1-09 BOTTOMED on 7-13-09, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Monthly
/Short Term (countertrend) Wave B/Wave 2 Upcycle since 7-13-09 (peaked on 8-4-09) PEAKED IN ROLLOVER MODE (GDX 40.18 (from 8-31), 39.21 (filled), 39.98 (filled), 39.24 (filled), 39.10 (filled) bearish breakaway upside gaps), and, was an opportunity to take profits/exit. See the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

The strength from 4-17-09 to 6-1-09 was peaking in rollover mode/upside surprise,
of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU.

GDX/HUI/XAU are (Wave 2 Monthly Upcycle peaked on 8-4-09) in a Short Term/Monthly Wave A of Wave C/Wave 3 Downcycle since 8-4-09 (the NEM Lead Indicator closed at -0.68% versus the XAU today/on 8-31, +0.28% on 8-28, -0.15% on 8-27, +0.23% on 8-26, +0.37% on 8-25, -1.38% on 8-24, -0.18% on 8-21, -0.03% on 8-20 (yes, the same as 8-19), -0.03% on 8-19, -0.31% on 8-18, +0.05% on 8-17 (yes, the same as 8-14), +0.05% on 8-14, -0.52% on 8-13, -0.12% on 8-12, +0.30% on 8-11, +0.10% on 8-10, +0.64% on 8-7, +1.25% on 8-6, +0.05% on 8-5, +0.37% on 8-4, -2.10% on 8-3, -0.08% on 7-31, -1.76% on 7-30, +0.36% on 7-29, +1.04% on 7-28, -0.03% on 7-27, -0.14% on 7-24, -1.30% on 7-23, -0.63% on 7-22, +1.03% on 7-21, -1.05% on 7-20, -0.81% on 7-17, +0.22% on 7-16, -1.20% on 7-15, -0.27% on 7-14, -0.26% on 7-13, -0.16% on 7-10, -0.53% on 7-9, -0.46% on 7-8, +0.30% on 7-7, +2.14% on 7-6, -1.30% on 7-2, -0.61% on 7-1) of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 6-1-09, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

The five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator closed at/near modestly bullish (+0.25% to +0.49% vs XAU) today 8-31-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, that must be used in concert with the sector lead indicator, closed at bearish (-0.50% to -0.99% vs SPX) today 8-31-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 39.76 (filled), 39.57 (filled), 38.79 (filled), 38.89 (filled), 38.61 (filled), 37.30 (filled), 37.18 (filled), 36.76, 35.93, 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. NEM has downside gaps at 40.47 (filled), 40.04 (filled), 39.94 (filled), 39.37 (filled), 38.77 (filled), 38.45, and TBD.

GDX has very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 44.55, 43.51, 40.92
(filled), 40.18 (from 8-31), 39.98 (filled), 39.24 (filled), 39.21 (filled), 39.10 (filled), and, NEM has ones at 47.44, 44.11, 41.54 (filled), 41.42 (from 8-31), 40.63 (filled), 40.30 (filled).

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal 31 weeks ago, see annotated chart three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Friday, August 28, 2009

SPX's Wave B Intermediate Term Upcycle Since 3-6-09 Might Have Peaked Today

SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wave B/Wave 4 Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 (see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/08/spx-s-p-500-cyclical-bear-market-since.html, The SPX Cyclical Bear Market Elliott Wave Count) might have peaked today 8-28-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, rolling over dramatically the past week, which is a very bearish sign. Also, SPX's Monthly Upcycle since 7-8-09 is rolling over.

There was much less Fed Credit (Crack) today 8-28-09, see http://bit.ly/9lBIG.

SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength since mid session appears to be an intraday countertrend Wave 4 up, see http://bit.ly/ggZoR, which means that there should be significant SPX/market weakness early on Monday. Use the one day chart to do the Elliott Wave count, see http://bit.ly/A9Qr5.

An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Rollover Upcycle, fueled by massive Fed Credit, +$45.433 Billion in the five day period ending 8-19-09 and much more since then (massive propping by Benny & Feds, see http://bit.ly/9lBIG), that had been in effect since very late on Monday 8-17-09, see http://bit.ly/ggZoR, appears to have possibly peaked very early today 8-28-09, rolling over dramatically versus Tuesday 8-25-09's cycle high. Watch SPX's downside gap at 1007.37 now.

SPX's
(S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap at 975.15 will probably get filled in the next week or so. 940.38 and 905.84 are the next downside gaps after that.

Benny will soon have to yield to the power of cycles and the natural way of things!
(From Moi on Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles).

Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a very large bearish spike on a bearish black candle (close below the open) on 8-25-09, and, put in another bearish spike on 8-26, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

The
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Rollover Upcycle since very late on Monday 8-17-09 appears to have been both the Monthly Upcycle since 7-8-09 and the likely countertrend Wave B/Wave 4 Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 peaking in rollover mode, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upcycle since very late on Monday 8-17 did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (large Wave 5 up began very late 8-19), see http://bit.ly/ggZoR.

The fact that SPX
(S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume picked dramatically on Friday 8-21 and today Friday 8-28, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT (volume bar at bottom of chart and volume data at top left hand side), to 4.836 billion shares and 4.744 billion shares respectively, from 3.948 billion shares on Thursday 8-20 (EMA (60) at 4.457 billion shares), is probably a bearish sign, indicating that major and smart traders are heading for the exits.

"Fed pumping" was probably/very likely a major factor the past few weeks (at least), see
http://bit.ly/9lBIG. Also, futures and options expiration (occurred Friday 8-21, usually the third Friday of the month, unless it's a holiday) might have been a factor.

Fed Credit spiked by a substantial +$14.161 Billion in the five day period ending 8-26-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, which explains some/much of the recent SPX/market strength. Even though the daily credit injections were huge in the five day period ending 8-26-09, the same was true of the previous week, see below, so, the delta/change from the previous week wasn't massive, but, it was substantial.

Fed Credit spiked by a massive
+$45.433 Billion in the five day period ending 8-19-09, which explains some/much of the recent SPX/market strength.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at slightly bearish (+0.00% to -0.24% vs SPX) today 8-28-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.

Today 8-28's broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at slightly bearish, -0.01% vs SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT).

The market had mixed breadth today 8-28-09 (NYSE up to down volume obviously appears to be incorrect), see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances, which is a somewhat bearish (breadth has generally been deteriorating in recent weeks) indication.

The way SPX
(S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) defied gravity in the Wave 5 Monthly Rollover Upcycle that began on 7-8-09 and is peaking in rollover mode (compare the declines in July/August (until 8-7-09) to those that occurred in March, April, May, and June), see http://bit.ly/ggZoR, jives with it being a final Wave 5 type of blowoff spike move, of the likely countertrend Wave B/Wave 4 Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09.

The intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs/relative to VIX) collapsed (the relative aspect is what's important) since mid session today 8-28-09, which is a bearish indication for early Monday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.

The five day intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry chart (SPX vs VIX) points to some potentially severe weakness early on Monday (watch the 1007.37 downside gap), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, because, it collapsed (the relative aspect (VIX crashed relative to SPX intraday today) is what's important) since mid session today 8-28-09.

SPX (S & P 500) experienced a slight +0.12% rise in fear/+0.12% rise in the Wall of Worry today 8-28, since SPX (S & P 500) fell -0.20% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX rising +0.32%, which points to some very modest SPX (S & P 500)/market strength early on Monday 8-31-09.

Normally (I'm leaving this in for reference purposes) an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).

Follow my live updates (the "play by play") at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.

I'll be looking to trade ultra short via QID, SDS, ERY, TZA, SRS, FAZ etc this week/soon.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

Keep in mind that the market tends to fall faster than it rises, larger % declines than % gains tend to occur, and, some of those declines will probably be from high levels.

The three month indicators are off the charts bearish.

Check out the super bearish three month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC.

Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is off the charts bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.

There may be clear signs after an important
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) cycle high occurs, such as a very sharp decline shortly after SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) peaks, that may leave a very bearish spike/candle, and, a large bearish breakaway upside gap may occur.

Data and indicators can only be evaluated after (are secondary to) understanding SPX's (or whatever index, stock or commodity you're trading or investing in) cycles, Elliott Wave count, and gaps, which are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system.


Gaps tend to provide a roadmap for where an index/stock/commodity will go, when used in concert with cycles and Elliott Wave patterns (basis/crux of Trade the Cycles). In the upcoming Short Term Wave A Downcycle SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably fill some or all of the 1025.57 (filled), 1007.37, 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, and 811.08 downside gaps.

Fed Credit spiked by a substantial +$14.161 Billion in the five day period ending 8-26-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ (Following the money, Fed and Consumer Credit data, and, insider trading activity, is obviously very important).

Weekly Fed Credit data is very important, because, it provides a good idea of how much ammo the large and small program traders have.

SPX (S & P 500) will probably try to fill downside gaps at 1025.57 (filled), 1007.37, 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, and 811.08 in the near future. There are more downside gaps at 768.54, and, at 676.53.

"The SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market (Since 10-11-07) Elliott Wave Count," see http://bit.ly/1036Td (The Bear lives).

SPX's (S & P 500) bearish double top in March 2000/October 2007 is the bull market since 1932 peaking, which is the main problem that the US and the world faces, see http://bit.ly/FypjN.

Keep in mind that cycles plus the Elliott Wave count and gaps are the primary market timing consideration. They are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system. Indicators, data, tools, etc are used/evaluated after knowing what the cycles, Elliott Wave count, and gaps are.

However, an exception to the above is that candlestick charts help to determine or finetune what the cycles and
Elliott Wave count are.

See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.

Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data since 3-6-09, when a likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle began) is super bearish since 3-6-09, at -0.01% versus the S & P 500 today/on 8-28, -1.36% on 8-27, +0.24% on 8-26, -0.01% on 8-25, +0.42% on 8-24, -2.54% on 8-21, -1.01% on 8-20, -0.09% on 8-19, -1.42% on 8-18, +2.01% on 8-17, +0.68% on 8-14, +2.02% on 8-13, -0.21% on 8-12, +1.91% on 8-11, +1.20% on 8-10, -0.71% on 8-7, +0.11% on 8-6, -1.01% on 8-5, -0.28% on 8-4, -1.61% on 8-3, -0.27% on 7-31, +0.05% on 7-30, +1.38% on 7-29, +0.16% on 7-28, -0.24% on 7-27, +0.07% on 7-24, -3.16% on 7-23, +0.68% on 7-22, -0.28% on 7-21, -0.46% on 7-20, +0.00% on 7-17, -0.94% on 7-16, -2.09% on 7-15, +0.10% on 7-14, -1.94% on 7-13, -0.66% on 7-10, -0.95% on 7-9, +1.28% on 7-8, +2.20% on 7-7, -0.39% on 7-6, +1.76% on 7-2, -0.58% on 7-1, +0.19% on 6-30, -0.64% on 6-29, -0.91% on 6-26, -0.82% on 6-25, -0.32% on 6-24, -0.72% on 6-23, +3.93% on 6-22, -1.36% on 6-19, -0.59% on 6-18, +0.78% on 6-17, +0.84% on 6-16, -0.39% on 6-15, +0.91% on 6-12, -2.09% on 6-11, -0.74% on 6-10, -0.74% on 6-9, -0.41% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -1.17% on 6-4, +3.27% on 6-3, -1.50% on 6-2, -0.87% on 6-1, -0.98% on 5-29, -1.07% on 5-28, +0.54% on 5-27, -1.11% on 5-26, +0.44% on 5-22, +2.03% on 5-21, -0.34% on 5-20, -0.95% on 5-19, +0.64% on 5-18, -0.79% on 5-15, -2.90% on 5-14, +0.98% on 5-13, +0.63% on 5-12, +3.13% on 5-11, -1.91% on 5-8, +2.09% on 5-7, -3.62% on 5-6, -0.37% on 5-5, -1.81% on 5-4, -1.23% on 5-1, +0.00% on 4-30, +1.92% on 4-29, +0.19% on 4-28, +2.35% on 4-27, -3.71% on 4-24, -1.19% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.

The
likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. It's the first meaningful S & P 500 (SPX) rally of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is a sign that it's Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The unusual amount of very large spiking action since 3-6-09, even very early on, also jives well with countertrend and important peaking action.

The longer the lag time between when the super bearish
broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator "kicks in," from when it originally became extremely bearish, the more important the cycle high tends to be, because, the larger, longer, more important the upcycle or downcycle, the longer the lag time tends to be before an important indicator
"kicks in," and, the expected action (severe weakness in this case) begins.

I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, purchased on 4-22 at 88.50 (1:10 stock split on 7-9).

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.69% versus the XOI today/on 8-28, -0.94% on 8-27, +0.33% on 8-26, -0.42% on 8-25, +1.26% on 8-24, -0.95% on 8-21, -0.08% on 8-20, +0.69% on 8-19, -1.35% on 8-18, +0.68% on 8-17, +0.23% on 8-14, -1.13% on 8-13, +0.30% on 8-12, -0.20% on 8-11, -0.47% on 8-10, -0.18% on 8-7, +0.42% on 8-6, +0.22% on 8-5, +0.21% on 8-4, -1.65% on 8-3, -1.19% on 7-31, -2.21% on 7-30, +1.39% on 7-29, +0.18% on 7-28, -0.04% on 7-27, +0.14% on 7-24, -0.31% on 7-23, +0.08% on 7-22, +1.52% on 7-21, -1.51% on 7-20, +0.08% on 7-17, -0.82% on 7-16, -0.09% on 7-15, -0.19% on 7-14, -1.21% on 7-13, +0.01% on 7-10, -1.56% on 7-9, -0.07% on 7-8, -0.24% on 7-7, +0.96% on 7-6, +0.74% on 7-2, +0.55% on 7-1, -0.21% on 6-30, +0.71% on 6-29, -0.54% on 6-26, +0.33% on 6-25, -0.90% on 6-24, -1.22% on 6-23, +1.36% on 6-22, -0.40% on 6-19, +0.10% on 6-18, +1.47% on 6-17, -0.25% on 6-16, +1.45% on 6-15, +0.93% on 6-12, -0.53% on 6-11, +0.39% on 6-10, -0.90% on 6-9, +0.37% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -0.59% on 6-4, +3.51% on 6-3, +2.44% on 6-2, +0.17% on 6-1, -1.65% on 5-29, -1.79% on 5-28, -1.27% on 5-27, -0.45% on 5-26, +0.67% on 5-22, +0.48% on 5-21, -1.97% on 5-20, -0.49% on 5-19, -1.02% on 5-18, +1.06% on 5-15, +0.11% on 5-14, +1.45% on 5-13, +1.65% on 5-12, +1.01% on 5-11, -1.79% on 5-8, +1.48% on 5-7, -2.03% on 5-6, +0.33% on 5-5, -2.76% on 5-4, -1.30% on 5-1.

Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 49.15 (filled), 49.84 (filled), 51.07 (filled), 51.80, 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 51.55 (filled), 50.51, 49.76, 49.37 (filled).

SPX (S & P 500) has a bearish breakaway upside gap at
1012.73 (filled), 1010.48 (filled), 1004.09 (filled), 979.62 (filled), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at
1025.57 (filled), 1007.37, 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now/soon (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it. Not a recommendation.

Follow my live updates at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow after doing a search for tradethecycles. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. I just started using Twitter recently. I'm going to try to make timely live updates at Twitter and make it a real time extension of this Blog. Also, I opine about other subjects.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 probably peaked on 6-1-09, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.

GDX/HUI/XAU's rollover upcycle since 4-17-09 peaked on 6-1-09, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

Wave 5/Wave C down of the huge
GDX/HUI/XAU Monthly Wave A Downcycle since 6-1-09 BOTTOMED on 7-13-09, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Monthly
/Short Term (countertrend) Wave B/Wave 2 Upcycle since 7-13-09 (peaked on 8-4-09) PEAKED IN ROLLOVER MODE (GDX 39.21 (filled), 39.98 (filled), 39.24 (filled), 39.10 (filled) bearish breakaway upside gaps), and, was an opportunity to take profits/exit. See the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

The strength from 4-17-09 to 6-1-09 was peaking in rollover mode/upside surprise,
of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU.

GDX/HUI/XAU are (Wave 2 Monthly Upcycle peaked on 8-4-09) in a Short Term/Monthly Wave A of Wave C/Wave 3 Downcycle since 8-4-09 (the NEM Lead Indicator closed at +0.28% versus the XAU today/on 8-28, -0.15% on 8-27, +0.23% on 8-26, +0.37% on 8-25, -1.38% on 8-24, -0.18% on 8-21, -0.03% on 8-20 (yes, the same as 8-19), -0.03% on 8-19, -0.31% on 8-18, +0.05% on 8-17 (yes, the same as 8-14), +0.05% on 8-14, -0.52% on 8-13, -0.12% on 8-12, +0.30% on 8-11, +0.10% on 8-10, +0.64% on 8-7, +1.25% on 8-6, +0.05% on 8-5, +0.37% on 8-4, -2.10% on 8-3, -0.08% on 7-31, -1.76% on 7-30, +0.36% on 7-29, +1.04% on 7-28, -0.03% on 7-27, -0.14% on 7-24, -1.30% on 7-23, -0.63% on 7-22, +1.03% on 7-21, -1.05% on 7-20, -0.81% on 7-17, +0.22% on 7-16, -1.20% on 7-15, -0.27% on 7-14, -0.26% on 7-13, -0.16% on 7-10, -0.53% on 7-9, -0.46% on 7-8, +0.30% on 7-7, +2.14% on 7-6, -1.30% on 7-2, -0.61% on 7-1) of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 6-1-09, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

The five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator closed at/near modestly bearish (-0.25% to -0.49% vs XAU) today 8-28-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, that must be used in concert with the sector lead indicator, closed at slightly bearish (+0.00% to -0.24% vs SPX) today 8-28-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 39.76 (filled), 39.57 (on 8-28), 38.79 (filled), 38.89 (filled), 38.61 (filled), 37.30 (filled), 37.18 (filled), 36.76, 35.93, 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. NEM has downside gaps at 40.47 (filled), 40.04 (filled), 39.94 (filled), 39.37 (filled), 38.77 (filled), 38.45, and TBD.

GDX has very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 44.55, 43.51, 40.92
(filled), 39.98 (filled), 39.24 (filled), 39.21 (filled), 39.10 (filled), and, NEM has ones at 47.44, 44.11, 41.54 (filled), 40.63 (filled), 40.30 (filled).

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal 30 weeks ago, see annotated chart three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/