A Very Short Term Cycle Low Appears To Have Occurred Near Session's End For SPX/NDX/RUT

A very short term cycle low appears to have occurred near session's end for SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. SPX has done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since Wednesday 2-27's very short term cycle high, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.52% versus SPX today, which jives with a very short term cycle low occurring late today.

In order for the short term Wave 2 cycle lows on 2-7 for SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/NDX and on 2-22 for RUT to hold SPX/NDX/RUT almost have to have hit a very short term cycle low today.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 2-7-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx for NDX.

RUT (Russell 2000) however probably just put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on Friday 2-22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday 2-22's candle.

I'll look to day trade the major averages ultra long early on Monday (using the intraday/very short term Elliott Wave count) via QLD, UWM, or SSO.

Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.

The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at neutral, since Fed credit declined by a modest -$253 Million in the five day period ending 2-27-08, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ . However, Fed credit was a humongous $41 Billion on 2-28, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, so, there might be a good entry point to trade the major averages long on Monday.

HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) has only risen +1.97% the past six weeks, from 1-14-08's cycle high at 489.49 to yesterday 2-28's cycle high at 499.12, which is obviously not a healthy linear upcycle, but is bearish dramatic rollover action.

A Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high is probably imminent for HUI/XAU, and, might have occurred yesterday 2-28. The way that HUI/XAU's peaks have rolled over/flattened out since September/October 2007, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, is consistent with a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high possibly occurring yesterday 2-28. Today's cycle high at 498.07 is a bearish slightly lower double top cycle high with yesterday's cycle high at 499.12.

Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market obviously implies that there should a Wave 3 and a Wave 5 Cyclical Bull Market in the future, but, a 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should soon begin if it didn't already.

Gold fell from $730 on 5-11-06 to $542 in mid June 2006, which is only one month's time, so, if you think gold can't fall to $500-525 in 12-18 months, think again. Gold's primary trendline is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Beware of all the gold nitwits and scam artists. Trust me.

See the five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at -0.07% versus the XAU on 2-29, at +0.29% on 2-28, at -0.58% on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

................Ignore The Goofy Gold Noise!

Gold should fall to $500-525 in the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, where one can see that gold's primary Secular Bull Market uptrend line is at $500ish right now. It's so easy to disprove the gold nitwits.

The gold nitwits would have you buy at the wrong time, and, you'd have to wait years just to get back to break even. They don't even understand BASIC TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, let alone high powered stuff like Trade the Cycles. Charts don't lie, gold nitwits try to make a living from it (telling lies).

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

The Major Averages Will Probably Be Weak Early Tomorrow

It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entered a very short term Wave C downcycle late today of the very short term downcycle that began yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, which jives with the WMT Lead Indicator becoming more bearish toward session's end (-0.53% versus SPX (S & P 500) today 2-28), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

There might be an opportunity to day trade the major averages short early tomorrow, but, I'm more interested in looking to trade the major averages ultra long via QLD, SSO, or UWM once a very short term cycle low occurs (probably early to mid session tomorrow), because, SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) are probably in a short term Wave 3 upcycle now.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 2-7-08, and, probably put in a Wave 2 down cycle low on Friday 2-22 (note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle) of a short term Wave 3 upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx for NDX.

RUT (Russell 2000) however probably just put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on Friday 2-22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle.

I'll look to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Friday (using the intraday/very short term Elliott Wave count) via QID, TWM, or SDS.

Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.

The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at neutral, since Fed credit declined by a modest -$253 Million in the five day period ending 2-27-08, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ . However, Fed credit was a humongous $41 Billion today 2-28, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, so, there might be a good entry point to trade the major averages long tomorrow, as discussed earlier.

HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) has only risen +1.97% the past six weeks, from 1-14-08's cycle high at 489.49 to today 2-28's cycle high at 499.12, which is obviously not a healthy linear upcycle, but is bearish dramatic rollover action.

A Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high is probably imminent for HUI/XAU. Wave 1 obviously implies that there should a Wave 3 and a Wave 5 Cyclical Bull Market in the future, but, a 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should soon begin.

See the extremely bearish five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at +0.29% versus the XAU on 2-28, at -0.58%, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

............Interpreting The NEM Lead Indicator

The more important the cycle high (or cycle low) the longer the lag time tends to be between what the NEM Lead Indicator indicates (severe weakness/a dramatic decline in this case) and when it occurs, because, a longer upcycle (or downcycle bottoming) is peaking.

There's a definite chance that HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began November 2000) cycle high today at 495.78, rolling over versus the 1-14-08, 11-7-07, and 5-11-06 cycle highs.

The major intermediate term upcycle since 8-16-07 is probably the final Wave 5 spike move that punctuates/marks the end of the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market. Sometimes, long after an upcycle appears to have peaked (in this case 5-11-06) a huge spike move occurs that marks the end of the upcycle. The larger the spike move the more important the peaking action usually is. The huge spike move since 8-16-07 for HUI/XAU clearly points to very important peaking action.

Since 1-30-08's cycle high at 489.49 to today 2-28's cycle high at 495.78 HUI has risen only +1.29% in about a month's time, which is obviously dramatic rollover action that points to important peaking action. The bullish agenda nitwits are getting excited about a very anemic gold stock market.

See the extremely bearish five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at -0.58% versus the XAU on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.......The NEM Lead Indicator Is Extremely Bearish

See the extremely bearish five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at -0.58% versus the XAU today/on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.

Obviously I'll be looking to day trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short tomorrow.

If it wasn't for massive Fed credit the past two weeks that fueled program trading in a big way, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ and see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, HUI/XAU probably wouldn't have taken out the 1-14-08 or the 1-30-08 cycle highs.

HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) might have put in Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs today, rolling over dramatically versus the 1-14-08 and the 11-7-07 cycle highs.

It's obviously bearish when rollover action occurs, because, an upcycle is weakening, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. From the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high HUI only made upside progress in three sessions, while the XAU only made upside progess in one session, which was obviously bearish dramatic rollover action.

One thing that can't really be predicted is if rollover action will occur, and, how much will occur if it does (no way to know in advance how much the Fed will spike the program trader punch). Watching Fed credit can help a lot in that regard, and, I need to start closely watching it again. Also, the more important the cycle high the more rollover action is possible timewise and pricewise.

I'm bringing back the Rollover Barometer, which is largely based on the weekly Fed credit data, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, but, I also look at the daily Fed credit data at http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and RUT's (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) upcycle since late Friday peaked early today in dramatic rollover mode, while NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) peaked yesterday. All look like good shorts tomorrow. I'll be looking to day trade ultra short tomorrow via SDS, TWM, or QID. I day traded QID today, buying at 50.2699 and selling at 50.4201.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.15% versus SPX today/on 2-27, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, but, WMT put in a very large bearish spike on the intraday chart today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, WMT looked like it was about to enter an intraday Wave C downcycle at session's end.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 2-7-08, and, probably put in a Wave 2 down cycle low on Friday 2-22 (note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle) of a short term Wave 3 upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx for NDX.

RUT (Russell 2000) however probably just put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on Friday 2-22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle.

I'll look to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Thursday (using the intraday/very short term Elliott Wave count) via QID, TWM, or SDS.

Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

......HUI/XAU Took Out Their 1-14-08 Cycle Highs

HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) took out their 1-14-08 cycle highs that appeared to be Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs, but, they are dramatically rolling over versus the 1-14-08 and the 11-7-07 cycle highs, which is a bearish situation. That's not an opinion, that's a fact.

One thing that can't really be predicted is if rollover action will occur, and, how much will occur if it does (no way to know in advance how much the Fed will spike the program trader punch). Watching Fed credit can help a lot in that regard, and, I probably need to start closely watching it again. Also, the more important the cycle high the more rollover action is possible timewise and pricewise.

Note in the latest weekly Fed Credit data that the Fed spiked the program trader punch, with a large +$8.524 Billion increase in credit in the five day period ending 2-20-08, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, which is a large weekly increase.

It's obviously bearish when rollover action occurs, because, an upcycle is weakening, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. From the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high HUI only made upside progress in three sessions, while the XAU only made upside progess in one session, which was obviously bearish dramatic rollover action.

Trade the Cycles and the methods that I use kept me out of losing trades even though the short term picture didn't go as expected. THAT'S the important thing. I'm not a psychic and either is Trade the Cycles, but it's a great market timing/trading system. I'd pit it against any other market timing/trading system.

No trader or investor worth his or her salt will have a goofy bullish agenda and always be bullish. It's financial suicide to do so and extremely irresponsible. The rank amateur bozos that litter the gold sector are usually easy to spot (There's a few that waste their time doing what looks like great timing work/research, but, they always arrive at a bullish or at least sugarcoated conclusion). I hope you haven't been duped by one of those nitwits. Good luck.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Bullish Agendas Are For Bozos And Scam Artists

The fact is that HUI and the XAU remain below their 1-14-08 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high HUI only made upside progress in three sessions, while the XAU only made upside progess in one session, which was obviously bearish dramatic rollover action.

There's no room for subjectivity with these facts. They're BEARISH. HUI and the XAU are BELOW where they were over a month ago. FACT. The gold clowns and con artists are WRONG. FACT. The fact that gold is dramatically lagging HUI/XAU is bearish, because, it's a sign of important peaking action. FACT. The people with the (mindless and/or corrupt) bullish gold agenda are DOOMED. FACT.

People know BS and dogcrap when they see it. Just like I know many of the comments I'm getting are from friends of the gold clowns and scam artists (preying on the unsuspecting). If you get so delusional that you ignore obvious extremely important facts (HUI/XAU below where they were over a month ago) you have a major problem and are in need of serious help/soul searching. Good luck.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

GLD (Gold ETF) Might Be A Good Short Early Tomorrow

GLD (Gold ETF) might be a good short early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gld&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Note that GLD put in a very large bearish spike today just before session's end, and, the very short term countertrend Wave B type move that began early yesterday appears to have peaked when that very large bearish spike occurred.

If you're not using the highly useful Yahoo one and five day intraday candlestick charts you should be. I use them and ASKResearch.com real time charts to assess the Elliott Wave count, cycles, look for bullish large inverse spikes/bearish large spikes, etc.

It looks like GLD will probably experience a very short term 1-2 day Wave C type downcycle in the next session or two, in which it should bottom in the 90.50 to 91.50 range, well below yesterday 2-25's very short term Wave A cycle low at 92.11.

Looking at gold's daily chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, it looks like gold might have put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $958.40 on Thursday 2-21-08 versus one probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU. The dramatic lag time between HUI/XAU and gold is a clear sign that important peaking action is occurring. Notice that the cycle high at $958.40 rolled over/flattened out versus the previous cycle highs in January, and, the very flat declining peaks downtrend since last Thursday 2-21 is a bad sign also.

A lot of people are soon going to find out how costly a mindless bullish agenda (or being plain LAZY or ignorant) can be. Get real before you get wiped out. Keeping your head in the sand is no way to live. Too many of the gold writers are ignorant nitwits (or worse) that only care about their own best interests and don't give a damn about yours. Trust me.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

The Major Averages Upcycle That Began Late Friday Might Have Peaked Today

The major averages' upcycle that began late Friday might have peaked today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. It looked like it might have peaked late yesterday as expected, when today's early weakness occurred, but then what's probably a big Wave 5 type spike move occurred for a few hours.

Sometimes when an upcycle looks like it's peaked it'll surprise to the upside with a large Wave 5 spike move. Large spike moves tend to mark important cycle highs.

Since the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.44% versus SPX (S & P 500) today and got more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, more upside surprise is obviously a possibility tomorrow.

However, WMT appears to have turned down at mid session and might have been in a countertrend Wave B move at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Most or all of the strength indicated by today's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator might already be priced in.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 2-7-08, and, probably put in a Wave 2 down cycle low on Friday 2-22 (note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle) of a short term Wave 3 upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx for NDX.

RUT (Russell 2000) however probably just put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on Friday 2-22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle.

I'll look to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Wednesday (using the intraday/very short term Elliott Wave count) via QID, TWM, or SDS. I'll also be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) early on, for what might just be a day trade.

Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.

Today HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) put in a slightly higher countertrend Wave B of a short term Wave C (began 1-30-08 after hitting a short term Wave B cycle high at 478.70) bearish double top (assuming it turns down tomorrow) cycle high at 478.13 versus last Thursday 2-21's cycle high at 477.73.

HUI is now in the "apocalyptic" Wave C of a short term Wave C downcycle, in which the XAU should bottom at 161ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 161.75, and GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 42.87.

HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) is probably early in a very short term Wave C move since putting in a likely Wave B of a short term Wave C (began 1-30-08) cycle high at 478.13 today 2-26, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.

I'll be looking to go short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, on Wednesday, and, I might buy some XAU put options. Since the major averages are in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, I might just day trade a GDX short position versus holding it for a few days. However, the NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, so, it might make sense to hold on to a GDX short position for a few days or at least overnight. I'll try to remember to post my thoughts on this tomorrow, well before the session ends.

It's very likely that HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entered a 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-14-08. I've known this since shortly after the 1-14-08 cycle highs occurred. The obvious sign was the dramatic rollover action by HUI/XAU, in which HUI only made upside progress in three sessions from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high, and, the XAU only made upside progress in one session from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.09% versus the XAU today 2-26, it was a bearish -0.96% versus the XAU on 2-25, it was a bearish -0.84% versus the XAU on Friday 2-22, and, the five day NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.

Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold.

Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).

The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar did not put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08 since it closed (I think) today at 74.75, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (might have entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

The Major Averages Upcycle That Began Late Friday Should Turn Down Early Tomorrow

The major averages' upcycle that began late on Friday 2-22 should turn down early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX (S & P 500) appeared to be completing an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle pattern at session's end, for the spike move that began late on Friday. This jives with the WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator turning bearish late in the session (closed at a bearish -0.66% versus SPX (S & P 500) today 2-25), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 2-7-08, and, probably put in a Wave 2 down cycle low on Friday 2-22 (note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle) of a short term Wave 3 upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx for NDX.

RUT (Russell 2000) however probably just put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on Friday 2-22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle.

I'll look to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Tuesday (using the intraday/very short term Elliott Wave count) via QID, TWM, or SDS, and, I'll look to trade the major averages ultra long (might hold overnight, depending on what the Elliott Wave count, daily/intraday charts, cycles, WMT Lead Indicator, and daily/intraday candles look like) via QLD, UWM, or SSO shortly after possibly day trading ultra short, since the major averages are probably in a short term Wave 3 upcycle now. I'll also be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) early on, for what might just be a day trade.

Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.

It's very likely that HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entered a 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-14-08. I've known this since shortly after the 1-14-08 cycle highs occurred. The obvious sign was the dramatic rollover action by HUI/XAU, in which HUI only made upside progress in three sessions from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high, and, the XAU only made upside progress in one session from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high.

HUI is now in the "apocalyptic" Wave C of a short term Wave C downcycle, in which the XAU should bottom at 161ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 161.75, and GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 42.87.

HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) is in a very short term countertrend Wave B move (might be early in a very short term Wave C move) since putting in a Wave B of a short term Wave C (began 1-30-08) cycle high at 477.73 on Thursday 2-21, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.

The nearly -5% Wave A move from 477.73 to 454.23 in less than a session's time bottomed early on Friday 2-22. I'll be looking to go short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, on Tuesday, and, I might buy some XAU put options. Since the major averages are in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, I might just day trade a GDX short position versus holding it for a few days. However, the NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, so, it might make sense to hold on to a GDX short position for a few days or at least overnight. I'll try to remember to post my thoughts on this tomorrow, well before the session ends.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.96% versus the XAU today 2-25, it was a bearish -0.84% versus the XAU on Friday 2-22, and, the five day NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.

Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.

Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).

The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Check Out The Extremely Bearish NEM Lead Indicator

Check out the extremely bearish NEM Lead Indicator in the three month chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.

The mindless gold cheerleaders, gold pumper nitwits, and babbling senile gold pimps are about to be put out of their misery.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.84% versus the XAU on Friday 2-22, and, the five day NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Concerning The Major Averages Short Term Outlook

Concerning the major averages short term outlook, which has obviously been very hazy recently, it looks like SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably did put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 2-7-08, and, probably put in a Wave 2 down cycle low on Friday 2-22 (note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle) of a short term Wave 3 upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx for NDX.

RUT (Russell 2000) however probably just put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on Friday 2-22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle.

So, I'll probably still look to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Monday (using the intraday/very short term Elliott Wave count) via QID, TWM, or SDS, and, I'll probably look to day trade the major averages ultra long via QLD, UWM, or SSO shortly after possibly day trading ultra short, since the major averages are probably in a short term Wave 3 upcycle now.

Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

An Article With More Detailed Info Re Ambac Bailout Plan

An article with more detailed info re Ambac bailout plan, see http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/23/business/23bond.html.

Here's part of the article:

"Under Ambac’s plan, one part of the company would guarantee relatively safe municipal bonds, while the other would insure more complex securities backed by mortgages and other debt. In all, Ambac guarantees about $556.2 billion of securities.

The company also hopes to raise $2.5 billion through a rights offering to its existing shareholders; the sale will be backed by banks. Ambac also plans to raise roughly $500 million in new debt, according to the person who has seen the plan, who was not authorized to talk about it."

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

Here's What Led To Friday's Session End Short Covering Spike

Here's what led to Friday's session end short covering spike, see http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080223/wall_street.html.

"Wall Street staged a dramatic turnaround Friday, shooting higher in the last half-hour of trading after word that a bailout plan for troubled bond insurer Ambac Financial could be announced next week."

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

The US Dollar COT (Commitments Of Traders) Data Points To Strength Next Week

The US Dollar COT (Commitments Of Traders) data points to strength next week, see the last/sixth data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm, since the savvy non contrarian USD Commercial Traders traded aggressively net long in the five day period ending 2-19-08, as they've done nearly every week for the past few months, and, the US Dollar probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Cyclical Bear Market that began in late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd.

Even the usually clueless/contrarian USD Speculators expect some significant strength next week, since they increased their long position by over 20%, which makes them short term non contrarian. They also increased their short position by over 20%, which means they correctly expected some weakness, which was probably the weakness that already occurred this week.

The gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data points to weakness next week, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, since the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded significantly net short in the five day period ending 2-19-08. They correctly anticipated some strength, with the significant long trade, which was the strength that occurred this week, and, they expect a sharp decline, since they traded aggressively short, which appears to have begun late this week.

It's very likely that HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entered a 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-14-08. I've known this since shortly after the 1-14-08 cycle highs occurred. The obvious sign was the dramatic rollover action by HUI/XAU, in which HUI only made upside progress in three sessions from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high, and, the XAU only made upside progress in one session from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high.

HUI is now in the "apocalyptic" Wave C of a short term Wave C downcycle, in which the XAU should bottom at 161ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 161.75, and GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 42.87.

HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) is in a second/Wave 3 of a very short term countertrend Wave B move since putting in a Wave B of a short term Wave C (began 1-30-08) cycle high at 477.73 on Thursday 2-21, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. The nearly -5% Wave A move from 477.73 to 454.23 in less than a session's time bottomed early Friday 2-22. I'll be looking to go short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, on Monday, and, I might buy some XAU put options.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.84% versus the XAU on Friday 2-22, and, the five day NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

A Short Covering Spike Occurred At Session's End

A short covering spike occurred at session's end, after SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) had failed to rally significantly up to that point, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The large spike is a countertrend Wave B move, so, a good shorting opportunity should present itself early on Monday. I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra short via SDS, QID, or TWM early on Monday.

The reliable WMT Lead Indicator turned bearish at session's end after being bullish for most of the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and, closed at a bearish -0.43% versus SPX (S & P 500) today 2-22.

HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) is in a second/Wave 3 of a very short term countertrend Wave B move since putting in a Wave B of a short term Wave C (began 1-30-08) cycle high at 477.73 yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. The nearly -5% Wave A move from 477.73 to 454.23 in less than a session's time bottomed early today. I'll be looking to go short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, on Monday, and, I might buy some XAU put options.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.84% versus the XAU today/2-22, and, the five day NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at
-0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

The Babbling Senile Gold Pimps Are Having A BAD Day!

The babbling senile gold pimps are having a BAD day! In an obvious very short term Wave A type move HUI has fallen nearly -5% in less than a session's time, from yesterday's Wave B of a short term Wave C (began 1-30-08) cycle high at 477.73 to today's cycle low so far at 454.29, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.

HUI is now in the "apocalyptic" Wave C of a short term Wave C downcycle, in which the XAU should bottom at 161ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 161.75, and GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 42.87.

It's very likely that HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entered a 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-14-08. I've known this since shortly after the 1-14-08 cycle highs occurred. The obvious sign was the dramatic rollover action by HUI/XAU, in which HUI only made upside progress in three sessions from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high and the XAU only made upside progress in one session from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high. Also, the US Dollar probably bottomed/entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Cyclical Bear Market that began in late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. Got cycles?

The babbling senile gold pimps are no better than the mortgage pimps who hung out so many homebuyers to dry. Money/greed brings out the worst in many people. Also, remember that professionals focus on risk and amateurs focus on reward.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Concerning Today's Very Bullish WMT Lead Indicator

Concerning today's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.47% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 2-21 (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), it should turn bearish again tomorrow, because, today 2-21's WMT candle is black, indicating a bearish close below the open, and, it has a bearish large spike, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

Tomorrow I'll be looking to day trade NDX (NASDAQ 100) ultra long early on via QLD, then I'll be looking to day trade RUT (Russell 2000) ultra short via TWM, because, RUT has a medium/large bearish spike on today's bearish black candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. I'll also be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF tomorrow, and, I might buy some XAU put options. Ciao

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

HUI's Countertrend Wave B Of The Short Term Wave C Downcycle Since 1-30-08 Probably Peaked Today

HUI's countertrend Wave B of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08 probably peaked today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

HUI's sharp -2.69% intraday decline, from today's session cycle high at 477.73 to the session cycle low at 464.88, plus the very large bearish spike on today's daily candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, indicate that HUI's countertrend Wave B of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08 probably peaked today.

Also, more downside appears likely early tomorrow, since today's NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish again late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The XAU's short term countertrend Wave B upcycle probably peaked today in dramatic rollover mode, modestly higher than the cycle high on 1-30-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. Note the very large very bearish spike on today's daily candle.

The above jives with the extremely bearish NEM Lead Indicator recently, it was a very bearish -1.53% versus the XAU today/on 2-21, and, in February (-1.53% versus the XAU today/on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1). The five day NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, tomorrow, and, I might buy some XAU put options.

A very sharp/substantial decline is likely to occur for HUI/XAU (short Wave C downcycle began 1-30-08) in the near future (since Wave B of Wave C probably peaked today/on 2-21 for HUI), in which the XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) will probably fill it's downside gaps at 177.34 and at 161.75 (bottom at 161ish shortly after filling 161.75).

GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, will probably fill downside gaps at 47.75, 44.33 and 42.87, and, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling 42.87. HUI will probably fill it's downside gaps at 435.06 and at 425.04. NEM has downside gaps at 47.89 and at 47.39 that will probably get filled.

The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).

One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.

Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then probably put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 2-21-08.

Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.

Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).

The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).

The market/SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) was weak as expected today after very brief early strength, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. SPX might have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down intraday downcycle late in the session.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.47% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/2-21 (became more bullish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), it was a bearish -0.75% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-20, and, for the five day WMT Lead Indicator see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The WMT Lead Indicator was +0.54% on 2-19, -1.14% on 2-15, -0.02% on 2-14, -0.54% on 2-13.

(S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) are in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle, or, they're in a short term Wave 3 upcycle. The short term cycles of the major averages have been very difficult to gauge recently. There's been a lot of funky choppy action in recent weeks.

I'll be looking to go ultra long NDX (NASDAQ 100) or SPX/RUT early tomorrow via QLD or SSO/UWM, for what will probably be a day trade.

I ironically (weak session) day traded QLD today, but, I looked to trade QID for much of the session (it moved fast today as it often does due to the ultra "times 2" (200%) volatility and I barely missed a few entry points), with an entry point at 70.9499 and an exit point at 71.10.

Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.................."Driving to the Gold Rush"

"Driving to the Gold Rush," see http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/20/business/worldbusiness/20gold.html.

Here's some of the article:

"Just to start exploring, it takes tens of millions of dollars. The cost of finding and then mining gold has increased about 25 percent in the last year, a result of soaring costs for the energy, steel and cement used in mining.

Specialized equipment and qualified personnel are also in short supply. Modern-day exploration requires aerial mapping and sophisticated sensors.

Even with the most sophisticated sounding and drilling equipment, only one of every 1,000 exploration projects becomes a working mine, said Peter K. M. Megaw, president of Imdex, a consulting and contracting firm based in Tucson that helps foreign companies exploring in Mexico. "

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.......The Market Was Firm As Expected Today

The market/SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) was firm as expected today after brief early weakness, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. SPX might have completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up intraday upcycle late in the session.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.75% versus SPX (S & P 500) today 2-20 (became more bearish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), and, the five day WMT Lead Indicator points to severe weakness, beginning probably tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The WMT Lead Indicator was -0.75% on 2-20, +0.54% on 2-19, -1.14% on 2-15, -0.02% on 2-14, -0.54% on 2-13.

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) are probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle. The sharp decline in early February appears to be a Wave A type decline (of a short term Wave 2 downcycle).

I'll be looking to go ultra short NDX (NASDAQ 100) or SPX/RUT early tomorrow via QID or SDS/TWM, for what will probably be a day trade.

I day traded QID today, with an entry point at 51.30 and an exit point at 51.51. I also sold my tiny LTXX position at 3.41, within less than 1% of the session cycle high at 3.44, thanks to the Elliott Wave count, versus a purchase price at 3.00 in January.

Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle. SPX/NDX/RUT are probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle, as opposed to Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 3 upcycle.

HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were firm as expected today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, the countertrend Wave B upcycle of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08 appears to be peaking.

Since Wave A of the short term Wave C downcycle bottomed in early February at 424.53 HUI has done an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern on the daily chart, that appears to be peaking, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

The five day NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, as is the five day WMT Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which clearly points to severe weakness soon, since they strongly agree.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.53% versus the XAU today/on 2-20, it was +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8.

I'll be looking to day trade GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, short tomorrow.

A very sharp/substantial decline is likely to occur for HUI/XAU (short Wave C downcycle began 1-30-08) in the near future (after Wave B of Wave C peaks), in which the XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) will probably fill it's downside gaps at 177.34 and at 161.75 (bottom at 161ish shortly after filling 161.75). GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, will probably fill downside gaps at 47.75, 44.33 and 42.87, and, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling 42.87. HUI will probably fill it's downside gaps at 435.06 and at 425.04. NEM has downside gaps at 47.89 and at 47.39 that will probably get filled.

The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).

One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.

Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.

Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).

The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT's (Russell 2000) Countertrend Wave B Move That Began On Friday 2-15 Peaked Today

SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT's (Russell 2000) countertrend Wave B move that began on Friday 2-15 peaked today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c. Note SPX's bearish large spike on today's black candle, which indicates (the black candle does, not the bearish large spike) a close below the open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

The WMT Lead Indicator turned clearly bullish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and closed at a bullish +0.54% versus SPX ( S & P 500) today, which jives with a likely countertrend Wave B rebound early tomorrow for SPX/NDX/RUT, in which the WMT Lead Indicator should turn bearish again. It was -1.14% versus SPX on 2-15, -0.02% on 2-14, -0.54% on 2-13.

I'll be looking to go ultra short NDX (NASDAQ 100) early tomorrow via QID, for what will probably be a day trade.

Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle. SPX/NDX/RUT are probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle.

To the bozos who keep leaving phony comments, Trade the Cycles also nailed the cycle highs mentioned in the previous paragraph. Go back to October/November on this Blog and check the posts.

For HUI/XAU, the countertrend Wave B of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08 probably has more upside, because, the XAU still looks like it needs to do a very short term Wave 5 upcycle, from looking at the daily chart, which has an up down up pattern since Wave A of Wave C bottomed at 172.36 (labeled in the chart), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, which jives with the modestly bullish NEM Lead Indicator today at +0.46% versus the XAU on 2-19.

Also, the very large gap up at the open by HUI/XAU/NEM probably points to more upside, because, they're probably very short term bullish breakaway gaps, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

The NEM Lead Indicator was very bearish before today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. It was a very bearish -1.65% versus the XAU on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, and -1.51% on 2-8.

A very sharp/substantial decline is likely to occur for HUI/XAU (short Wave C downcycle began 1-30-08) in the near future (after Wave B of Wave C peaks), in which the XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) will probably fill it's downside gaps at 177.34 and at 161.75 (bottom at 161ish shortly after filling 161.75). GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, will probably fill downside gaps at 47.75, 44.33 and 42.87, and, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling 42.87. HUI will probably fill it's downside gaps at 435.06 and at 425.04. NEM has downside gaps at 47.89 and at 47.39 that will probably get filled.

The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).

One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.

Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.

Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).

The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

To Those Leaving Incorrect Agenda Type Comments

To those leaving incorrect agenda type comments (followers of the babbling senile gold pimps probably) regarding gold, I've been saying for about a month that HUI/XAU put in a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 (rolling over versus the 11-7-07 and the 5-11-06 cycle highs), and, that gold might lag by a few months as it tends to do at important cycle highs/lows (April 2004 versus January 6, 2004 for the XAU and December 2, 2003 for HUI).

I'm NOT precisely timing gold, I'm timing HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui)/XAU.

Trade the Cycles has worked very well, it also nailed the short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08 (it also nailed the 1-14-08 cycle high, at least on an intermediate term basis, and, I'm very confident it's also a bull market cycle high), see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html that I did on 1-30-08, the same day the short term countertrend Wave B cycle high occurred, the large bearish spike on 1-30-08's candle was a good clue.

I'd pit Trade the Cycles and my work against the best mutual funds, hedge funds, market timing systems, traders, etc. I can't remember the last time I lost money on a trade, literally. I KNOW how good my work is and how incredibly goofy most gold writers are.

Most people know BS when they see it. Agendas are for RANK AMATEURS. Professionals focus on risk, amateurs focus on reward. Remember that!

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.......HUI/XAU Wave B Of Wave C Is Still In Effect

HUI/XAU's Wave B of a short term Wave C since 1-30-08 is still in effect (HUI might have put in a double top with last week's cycle high that looked like the Wave B of Wave C cycle high), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI's short term Wave B peaked at 478.70 on 1-30-08, it's labeled in the StockCharts chart. Today's spike move changes nothing cyclewise, and, it obviously makes for a better shorting opportunity.

Reliable lead indicator NEM is strong early on and the NEM Lead Indicator is very bullish right now, but, should turn very bearish again soon, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.

The Fed spiked the program trader punch today with a large $10.75 Billion 1 day Repo, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, and, Walmart (WMT) beat their earnings estimate, which is helping market psychology early today.

I'm looking to go ultra short NDX (NASDAQ 100) via QID. When NDX does an intraday countertrend Wave B, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ENDX&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, I'll look to go short, probably for a day trade.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.......The NEM Lead Indicator Is Very Bearish

The NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. It was a very bearish -1.65% versus the XAU on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, and -1.51% on 2-8.

A very sharp/substantial decline is likely to occur for HUI/XAU (short Wave C downcycle began 1-30-08) this week, in which the XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) will probably fill it's downside gap at 161.75 (bottom at 161ish shortly after filling 161.75), versus a close on Friday 2-15 at 177.33, for a substantial decline of about -9.21% in the next week or so. GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, will probably fill downside gaps at 44.33 and 42.87, and, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling 42.87.

The WMT Lead Indicator turned bearish the past three sessions, it was a very bearish -1.14% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-15, -0.02% on 2-14, and, was a bearish -0.54% on 2-13. When the NEM and WMT Lead Indicators strongly agree, as they obviously do now, severe weakness becomes very likely short term.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

"Arcane Market Is Next to Face Big Credit Test"

"Arcane Market Is Next to Face Big Credit Test," see http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/17/business/17swap.html.

Here's a snippet from the article:

"And last week, the American International Group said that it had incorrectly valued some of the swaps it had written and that sharp declines in some of these instruments had translated to $3.6 billion more in losses than the company had previously estimated. Its stock dropped 12 percent on the news but edged up in the days after."

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

The US Dollar Put In A Wave 2 Intermediate Term Cycle Low At 74.85 On Friday 2-1-08

The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).

Note the very large bullish inverse spike on the candle of the November 2007 likely Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 74.48, and, note the large bullish inverse spike on the candle of the Friday 2-1-08 Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85.

As I said before, pay close attention to the bearish large spikes and bullish large inverse spikes on the daily and intraday candlestick charts for important indexes, commodities, lead indicators NEM/WMT, and, for trading stocks/ETFs etc.

The US Dollar bottomed about three months ago, after being in a Cyclical Bear Market since late 2005, and, the babbling senile gold pimps are still frothing at the mouth. No surprise really. We should be hearing a lot about how gold is "manipulated" in the next 12-18 months by the "evil" Hank Paulson at the US Treasury.

They won't explain how gold nearly doubled from May 2004 until May 2006, or, how gold rose dramatically since the 8-16-07 cycle low if it's being suppressed. Gold averaged +30-35% each year from April 2001 until now, which is a period of nearly SEVEN YEARS. +30-35% each year on average is an amazing rate of return for a nearly seven year stretch. Not many mutual funds have matched that rate of return over that timeframe, if any.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU