......HUI/XAU Took Out Their 1-14-08 Cycle Highs
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) took out their 1-14-08 cycle highs that appeared to be Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs, but, they are dramatically rolling over versus the 1-14-08 and the 11-7-07 cycle highs, which is a bearish situation. That's not an opinion, that's a fact.
One thing that can't really be predicted is if rollover action will occur, and, how much will occur if it does (no way to know in advance how much the Fed will spike the program trader punch). Watching Fed credit can help a lot in that regard, and, I probably need to start closely watching it again. Also, the more important the cycle high the more rollover action is possible timewise and pricewise.
Note in the latest weekly Fed Credit data that the Fed spiked the program trader punch, with a large +$8.524 Billion increase in credit in the five day period ending 2-20-08, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, which is a large weekly increase.
It's obviously bearish when rollover action occurs, because, an upcycle is weakening, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. From the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high HUI only made upside progress in three sessions, while the XAU only made upside progess in one session, which was obviously bearish dramatic rollover action.
Trade the Cycles and the methods that I use kept me out of losing trades even though the short term picture didn't go as expected. THAT'S the important thing. I'm not a psychic and either is Trade the Cycles, but it's a great market timing/trading system. I'd pit it against any other market timing/trading system.
No trader or investor worth his or her salt will have a goofy bullish agenda and always be bullish. It's financial suicide to do so and extremely irresponsible. The rank amateur bozos that litter the gold sector are usually easy to spot (There's a few that waste their time doing what looks like great timing work/research, but, they always arrive at a bullish or at least sugarcoated conclusion). I hope you haven't been duped by one of those nitwits. Good luck.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
One thing that can't really be predicted is if rollover action will occur, and, how much will occur if it does (no way to know in advance how much the Fed will spike the program trader punch). Watching Fed credit can help a lot in that regard, and, I probably need to start closely watching it again. Also, the more important the cycle high the more rollover action is possible timewise and pricewise.
Note in the latest weekly Fed Credit data that the Fed spiked the program trader punch, with a large +$8.524 Billion increase in credit in the five day period ending 2-20-08, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, which is a large weekly increase.
It's obviously bearish when rollover action occurs, because, an upcycle is weakening, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. From the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high HUI only made upside progress in three sessions, while the XAU only made upside progess in one session, which was obviously bearish dramatic rollover action.
Trade the Cycles and the methods that I use kept me out of losing trades even though the short term picture didn't go as expected. THAT'S the important thing. I'm not a psychic and either is Trade the Cycles, but it's a great market timing/trading system. I'd pit it against any other market timing/trading system.
No trader or investor worth his or her salt will have a goofy bullish agenda and always be bullish. It's financial suicide to do so and extremely irresponsible. The rank amateur bozos that litter the gold sector are usually easy to spot (There's a few that waste their time doing what looks like great timing work/research, but, they always arrive at a bullish or at least sugarcoated conclusion). I hope you haven't been duped by one of those nitwits. Good luck.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:40 AM
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