The Major Averages Upcycle That Began Late Friday Should Turn Down Early Tomorrow
The major averages' upcycle that began late on Friday 2-22 should turn down early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX (S & P 500) appeared to be completing an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle pattern at session's end, for the spike move that began late on Friday. This jives with the WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator turning bearish late in the session (closed at a bearish -0.66% versus SPX (S & P 500) today 2-25), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 2-7-08, and, probably put in a Wave 2 down cycle low on Friday 2-22 (note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle) of a short term Wave 3 upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx for NDX.
RUT (Russell 2000) however probably just put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on Friday 2-22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle.
I'll look to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Tuesday (using the intraday/very short term Elliott Wave count) via QID, TWM, or SDS, and, I'll look to trade the major averages ultra long (might hold overnight, depending on what the Elliott Wave count, daily/intraday charts, cycles, WMT Lead Indicator, and daily/intraday candles look like) via QLD, UWM, or SSO shortly after possibly day trading ultra short, since the major averages are probably in a short term Wave 3 upcycle now. I'll also be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) early on, for what might just be a day trade.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
It's very likely that HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entered a 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-14-08. I've known this since shortly after the 1-14-08 cycle highs occurred. The obvious sign was the dramatic rollover action by HUI/XAU, in which HUI only made upside progress in three sessions from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high, and, the XAU only made upside progress in one session from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high.
HUI is now in the "apocalyptic" Wave C of a short term Wave C downcycle, in which the XAU should bottom at 161ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 161.75, and GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 42.87.
HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) is in a very short term countertrend Wave B move (might be early in a very short term Wave C move) since putting in a Wave B of a short term Wave C (began 1-30-08) cycle high at 477.73 on Thursday 2-21, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
The nearly -5% Wave A move from 477.73 to 454.23 in less than a session's time bottomed early on Friday 2-22. I'll be looking to go short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, on Tuesday, and, I might buy some XAU put options. Since the major averages are in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, I might just day trade a GDX short position versus holding it for a few days. However, the NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, so, it might make sense to hold on to a GDX short position for a few days or at least overnight. I'll try to remember to post my thoughts on this tomorrow, well before the session ends.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.96% versus the XAU today 2-25, it was a bearish -0.84% versus the XAU on Friday 2-22, and, the five day NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 2-7-08, and, probably put in a Wave 2 down cycle low on Friday 2-22 (note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle) of a short term Wave 3 upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx for NDX.
RUT (Russell 2000) however probably just put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on Friday 2-22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle.
I'll look to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Tuesday (using the intraday/very short term Elliott Wave count) via QID, TWM, or SDS, and, I'll look to trade the major averages ultra long (might hold overnight, depending on what the Elliott Wave count, daily/intraday charts, cycles, WMT Lead Indicator, and daily/intraday candles look like) via QLD, UWM, or SSO shortly after possibly day trading ultra short, since the major averages are probably in a short term Wave 3 upcycle now. I'll also be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) early on, for what might just be a day trade.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
It's very likely that HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entered a 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-14-08. I've known this since shortly after the 1-14-08 cycle highs occurred. The obvious sign was the dramatic rollover action by HUI/XAU, in which HUI only made upside progress in three sessions from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high, and, the XAU only made upside progress in one session from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high.
HUI is now in the "apocalyptic" Wave C of a short term Wave C downcycle, in which the XAU should bottom at 161ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 161.75, and GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 42.87.
HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) is in a very short term countertrend Wave B move (might be early in a very short term Wave C move) since putting in a Wave B of a short term Wave C (began 1-30-08) cycle high at 477.73 on Thursday 2-21, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
The nearly -5% Wave A move from 477.73 to 454.23 in less than a session's time bottomed early on Friday 2-22. I'll be looking to go short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, on Tuesday, and, I might buy some XAU put options. Since the major averages are in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, I might just day trade a GDX short position versus holding it for a few days. However, the NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, so, it might make sense to hold on to a GDX short position for a few days or at least overnight. I'll try to remember to post my thoughts on this tomorrow, well before the session ends.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.96% versus the XAU today 2-25, it was a bearish -0.84% versus the XAU on Friday 2-22, and, the five day NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:39 PM
3 Comments:
YES! Gold is the only option. Its not being a crackpot to play it safe. All that wave stuff is hogwash. Gold has reached its permanent upcycle as the dollar reaches the toilet paper stage.
Save yourself, Heathen. Ye of little faith, REPENT!
By
Anonymous, at 10:57 PM
The US Dollar bottomed/probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007. I'm a REAL goldbug, I don't need some queer oddball LOSER bullish agenda.
Any worthwhile investment/trading vehicle can stand plenty of good honest scrutiny. People/losers like you are like Al Qaeda trying to hijack the Islamic faith.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 6:51 AM
How are you playing it safe by buying gold at $940 versus it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendline at $500ish? I wouldn't invest in gold until it approached $500.
This is very basic stuff, primary trendlines. I realize that you obviously were just messing with me, but this sector is littered with bullish agenda BS. It's an offense to REAL goldbugs like myself.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:10 AM
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