HUI's Countertrend Wave B Of The Short Term Wave C Downcycle Since 1-30-08 Probably Peaked Today
HUI's countertrend Wave B of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08 probably peaked today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
HUI's sharp -2.69% intraday decline, from today's session cycle high at 477.73 to the session cycle low at 464.88, plus the very large bearish spike on today's daily candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, indicate that HUI's countertrend Wave B of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08 probably peaked today.
Also, more downside appears likely early tomorrow, since today's NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish again late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The XAU's short term countertrend Wave B upcycle probably peaked today in dramatic rollover mode, modestly higher than the cycle high on 1-30-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. Note the very large very bearish spike on today's daily candle.
The above jives with the extremely bearish NEM Lead Indicator recently, it was a very bearish -1.53% versus the XAU today/on 2-21, and, in February (-1.53% versus the XAU today/on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1). The five day NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, tomorrow, and, I might buy some XAU put options.
A very sharp/substantial decline is likely to occur for HUI/XAU (short Wave C downcycle began 1-30-08) in the near future (since Wave B of Wave C probably peaked today/on 2-21 for HUI), in which the XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) will probably fill it's downside gaps at 177.34 and at 161.75 (bottom at 161ish shortly after filling 161.75).
GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, will probably fill downside gaps at 47.75, 44.33 and 42.87, and, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling 42.87. HUI will probably fill it's downside gaps at 435.06 and at 425.04. NEM has downside gaps at 47.89 and at 47.39 that will probably get filled.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then probably put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 2-21-08.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
The market/SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) was weak as expected today after very brief early strength, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. SPX might have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down intraday downcycle late in the session.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.47% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/2-21 (became more bullish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), it was a bearish -0.75% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-20, and, for the five day WMT Lead Indicator see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The WMT Lead Indicator was +0.54% on 2-19, -1.14% on 2-15, -0.02% on 2-14, -0.54% on 2-13.
(S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) are in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle, or, they're in a short term Wave 3 upcycle. The short term cycles of the major averages have been very difficult to gauge recently. There's been a lot of funky choppy action in recent weeks.
I'll be looking to go ultra long NDX (NASDAQ 100) or SPX/RUT early tomorrow via QLD or SSO/UWM, for what will probably be a day trade.
I ironically (weak session) day traded QLD today, but, I looked to trade QID for much of the session (it moved fast today as it often does due to the ultra "times 2" (200%) volatility and I barely missed a few entry points), with an entry point at 70.9499 and an exit point at 71.10.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
HUI's sharp -2.69% intraday decline, from today's session cycle high at 477.73 to the session cycle low at 464.88, plus the very large bearish spike on today's daily candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, indicate that HUI's countertrend Wave B of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08 probably peaked today.
Also, more downside appears likely early tomorrow, since today's NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish again late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The XAU's short term countertrend Wave B upcycle probably peaked today in dramatic rollover mode, modestly higher than the cycle high on 1-30-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. Note the very large very bearish spike on today's daily candle.
The above jives with the extremely bearish NEM Lead Indicator recently, it was a very bearish -1.53% versus the XAU today/on 2-21, and, in February (-1.53% versus the XAU today/on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1). The five day NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, tomorrow, and, I might buy some XAU put options.
A very sharp/substantial decline is likely to occur for HUI/XAU (short Wave C downcycle began 1-30-08) in the near future (since Wave B of Wave C probably peaked today/on 2-21 for HUI), in which the XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) will probably fill it's downside gaps at 177.34 and at 161.75 (bottom at 161ish shortly after filling 161.75).
GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, will probably fill downside gaps at 47.75, 44.33 and 42.87, and, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling 42.87. HUI will probably fill it's downside gaps at 435.06 and at 425.04. NEM has downside gaps at 47.89 and at 47.39 that will probably get filled.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then probably put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 2-21-08.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
The market/SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) was weak as expected today after very brief early strength, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. SPX might have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down intraday downcycle late in the session.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.47% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/2-21 (became more bullish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), it was a bearish -0.75% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-20, and, for the five day WMT Lead Indicator see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The WMT Lead Indicator was +0.54% on 2-19, -1.14% on 2-15, -0.02% on 2-14, -0.54% on 2-13.
(S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) are in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle, or, they're in a short term Wave 3 upcycle. The short term cycles of the major averages have been very difficult to gauge recently. There's been a lot of funky choppy action in recent weeks.
I'll be looking to go ultra long NDX (NASDAQ 100) or SPX/RUT early tomorrow via QLD or SSO/UWM, for what will probably be a day trade.
I ironically (weak session) day traded QLD today, but, I looked to trade QID for much of the session (it moved fast today as it often does due to the ultra "times 2" (200%) volatility and I barely missed a few entry points), with an entry point at 70.9499 and an exit point at 71.10.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:37 PM
2 Comments:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/roslin/feb192008.html
COT bullish for gold
By
Anonymous, at 7:46 AM
The savvy gold Commercial Traders have gone massively short in recent months, and, have begun to aggressively liquidate their long position in recent weeks, which is very bearish. Good luck.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 8:10 AM
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