.......The Market Was Firm As Expected Today
The market/SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) was firm as expected today after brief early weakness, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. SPX might have completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up intraday upcycle late in the session.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.75% versus SPX (S & P 500) today 2-20 (became more bearish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), and, the five day WMT Lead Indicator points to severe weakness, beginning probably tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The WMT Lead Indicator was -0.75% on 2-20, +0.54% on 2-19, -1.14% on 2-15, -0.02% on 2-14, -0.54% on 2-13.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) are probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle. The sharp decline in early February appears to be a Wave A type decline (of a short term Wave 2 downcycle).
I'll be looking to go ultra short NDX (NASDAQ 100) or SPX/RUT early tomorrow via QID or SDS/TWM, for what will probably be a day trade.
I day traded QID today, with an entry point at 51.30 and an exit point at 51.51. I also sold my tiny LTXX position at 3.41, within less than 1% of the session cycle high at 3.44, thanks to the Elliott Wave count, versus a purchase price at 3.00 in January.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle. SPX/NDX/RUT are probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle, as opposed to Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were firm as expected today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, the countertrend Wave B upcycle of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08 appears to be peaking.
Since Wave A of the short term Wave C downcycle bottomed in early February at 424.53 HUI has done an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern on the daily chart, that appears to be peaking, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The five day NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, as is the five day WMT Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which clearly points to severe weakness soon, since they strongly agree.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.53% versus the XAU today/on 2-20, it was +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8.
I'll be looking to day trade GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, short tomorrow.
A very sharp/substantial decline is likely to occur for HUI/XAU (short Wave C downcycle began 1-30-08) in the near future (after Wave B of Wave C peaks), in which the XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) will probably fill it's downside gaps at 177.34 and at 161.75 (bottom at 161ish shortly after filling 161.75). GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, will probably fill downside gaps at 47.75, 44.33 and 42.87, and, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling 42.87. HUI will probably fill it's downside gaps at 435.06 and at 425.04. NEM has downside gaps at 47.89 and at 47.39 that will probably get filled.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.75% versus SPX (S & P 500) today 2-20 (became more bearish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), and, the five day WMT Lead Indicator points to severe weakness, beginning probably tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The WMT Lead Indicator was -0.75% on 2-20, +0.54% on 2-19, -1.14% on 2-15, -0.02% on 2-14, -0.54% on 2-13.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) are probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle. The sharp decline in early February appears to be a Wave A type decline (of a short term Wave 2 downcycle).
I'll be looking to go ultra short NDX (NASDAQ 100) or SPX/RUT early tomorrow via QID or SDS/TWM, for what will probably be a day trade.
I day traded QID today, with an entry point at 51.30 and an exit point at 51.51. I also sold my tiny LTXX position at 3.41, within less than 1% of the session cycle high at 3.44, thanks to the Elliott Wave count, versus a purchase price at 3.00 in January.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle. SPX/NDX/RUT are probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle, as opposed to Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) were firm as expected today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, the countertrend Wave B upcycle of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08 appears to be peaking.
Since Wave A of the short term Wave C downcycle bottomed in early February at 424.53 HUI has done an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern on the daily chart, that appears to be peaking, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The five day NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, as is the five day WMT Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which clearly points to severe weakness soon, since they strongly agree.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.53% versus the XAU today/on 2-20, it was +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8.
I'll be looking to day trade GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, short tomorrow.
A very sharp/substantial decline is likely to occur for HUI/XAU (short Wave C downcycle began 1-30-08) in the near future (after Wave B of Wave C peaks), in which the XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) will probably fill it's downside gaps at 177.34 and at 161.75 (bottom at 161ish shortly after filling 161.75). GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, will probably fill downside gaps at 47.75, 44.33 and 42.87, and, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling 42.87. HUI will probably fill it's downside gaps at 435.06 and at 425.04. NEM has downside gaps at 47.89 and at 47.39 that will probably get filled.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:22 PM
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