SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT's (Russell 2000) Countertrend Wave B Move That Began On Friday 2-15 Peaked Today
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT's (Russell 2000) countertrend Wave B move that began on Friday 2-15 peaked today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c. Note SPX's bearish large spike on today's black candle, which indicates (the black candle does, not the bearish large spike) a close below the open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The WMT Lead Indicator turned clearly bullish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and closed at a bullish +0.54% versus SPX ( S & P 500) today, which jives with a likely countertrend Wave B rebound early tomorrow for SPX/NDX/RUT, in which the WMT Lead Indicator should turn bearish again. It was -1.14% versus SPX on 2-15, -0.02% on 2-14, -0.54% on 2-13.
I'll be looking to go ultra short NDX (NASDAQ 100) early tomorrow via QID, for what will probably be a day trade.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle. SPX/NDX/RUT are probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle.
To the bozos who keep leaving phony comments, Trade the Cycles also nailed the cycle highs mentioned in the previous paragraph. Go back to October/November on this Blog and check the posts.
For HUI/XAU, the countertrend Wave B of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08 probably has more upside, because, the XAU still looks like it needs to do a very short term Wave 5 upcycle, from looking at the daily chart, which has an up down up pattern since Wave A of Wave C bottomed at 172.36 (labeled in the chart), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, which jives with the modestly bullish NEM Lead Indicator today at +0.46% versus the XAU on 2-19.
Also, the very large gap up at the open by HUI/XAU/NEM probably points to more upside, because, they're probably very short term bullish breakaway gaps, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The NEM Lead Indicator was very bearish before today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. It was a very bearish -1.65% versus the XAU on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, and -1.51% on 2-8.
A very sharp/substantial decline is likely to occur for HUI/XAU (short Wave C downcycle began 1-30-08) in the near future (after Wave B of Wave C peaks), in which the XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) will probably fill it's downside gaps at 177.34 and at 161.75 (bottom at 161ish shortly after filling 161.75). GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, will probably fill downside gaps at 47.75, 44.33 and 42.87, and, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling 42.87. HUI will probably fill it's downside gaps at 435.06 and at 425.04. NEM has downside gaps at 47.89 and at 47.39 that will probably get filled.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The WMT Lead Indicator turned clearly bullish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and closed at a bullish +0.54% versus SPX ( S & P 500) today, which jives with a likely countertrend Wave B rebound early tomorrow for SPX/NDX/RUT, in which the WMT Lead Indicator should turn bearish again. It was -1.14% versus SPX on 2-15, -0.02% on 2-14, -0.54% on 2-13.
I'll be looking to go ultra short NDX (NASDAQ 100) early tomorrow via QID, for what will probably be a day trade.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle. SPX/NDX/RUT are probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle.
To the bozos who keep leaving phony comments, Trade the Cycles also nailed the cycle highs mentioned in the previous paragraph. Go back to October/November on this Blog and check the posts.
For HUI/XAU, the countertrend Wave B of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08 probably has more upside, because, the XAU still looks like it needs to do a very short term Wave 5 upcycle, from looking at the daily chart, which has an up down up pattern since Wave A of Wave C bottomed at 172.36 (labeled in the chart), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, which jives with the modestly bullish NEM Lead Indicator today at +0.46% versus the XAU on 2-19.
Also, the very large gap up at the open by HUI/XAU/NEM probably points to more upside, because, they're probably very short term bullish breakaway gaps, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The NEM Lead Indicator was very bearish before today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. It was a very bearish -1.65% versus the XAU on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, and -1.51% on 2-8.
A very sharp/substantial decline is likely to occur for HUI/XAU (short Wave C downcycle began 1-30-08) in the near future (after Wave B of Wave C peaks), in which the XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) will probably fill it's downside gaps at 177.34 and at 161.75 (bottom at 161ish shortly after filling 161.75). GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, will probably fill downside gaps at 47.75, 44.33 and 42.87, and, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling 42.87. HUI will probably fill it's downside gaps at 435.06 and at 425.04. NEM has downside gaps at 47.89 and at 47.39 that will probably get filled.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:17 PM
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