Trade the Cycles

Friday, February 15, 2008

............I Did Another Day Trade With NEM

As reliable HUI/XAU lead indicator NEM tried to fill it's downside gap at 47.39 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, I shorted NEM at 47.70 and had to cover at 47.65 for a modest profit, as NEM basically turned sideways. Combined with the earlier GDX day trade I had a good day.

I didn't see GDX's huge spike on the intraday chart that occurred at the open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, or, I would have held GDX longer, and, probably would have covered in the 47 area versus covering at 47.4799 (shorted at 47.84).

Definitely watch for large spikes/inverse spikes on the daily and intraday charts for trading stocks, lead indicators NEM/WMT, and, for the indexes. The candlestick charts are very useful, partly because they reveal the large spikes/inverse spikes.

Both the WMT (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) and the NEM (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem) Lead Indicators were very bearish today, and, they became more bearish as the session progressed. The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.14% versus SPX (S & P 500) today 2-15, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.65% versus the XAU today 2-15.

Early on Tuesday I'll be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) or NEM/GLD, and, I'll be looking to trade the major averages ultra short via SDS, QID, or, TWM.

NEM will probably fill it's downside gap at 47.39 early on Tuesday and HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) will probably fill it's downside gap at 425.04 versus today's close at 435.06, so, GDX should be a good short again early on Tuesday. I'll look for HUI to probably fill 425.04, then I'll cover GDX shortly thereafter.

The NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bearish, which jives with HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entering Wave C of the short term Wave C downcycle (since 1-30-08) just after 2-12's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. It was a very bearish -1.65% versus the XAU today/on 2-15, was -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, was a very bearish -1.79% versus the XAU on 2-12, was a very bearish -1.18% versus the XAU on 2-11, and, was a very bearish -1.51% on Friday 2-8.

See yesterday's post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/02/spxndxrut-and-huixau-did-very-short.html for all the pertinent Trade the Cycles info.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

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