The Gold Miners ETF GDX Filled It's Downside Gap At 46.86 Today
The Gold Miners ETF GDX filled it's downside gap at 46.86 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
GDX/HUI/XAU's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle of the short term Wave C downcycle (since 1-30-08) peaked just after today's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), RUT (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut), all hit short term Wave 2 cycle lows last Thursday 2-7, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Today's cycle high was probably a Wave 1 cycle high of the short term Wave 3 upcycle
The reliable WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.58% versus SPX (S & P 500) today 2-12, and, was a very bullish +1.13% versus SPX (S & P 500) yesterday 2-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
Based on SPX's intraday chart some (probably brief) strength is likely early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX bottomed and put in a large bullish inverse spike near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Also, note SPX's Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern today, prior to the large bullish inverse spike near session's end.
Since SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and RUT (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) have large bearish spikes on today's daily candle, I'll be looking to day trade SPX or RUT ultra short tomorrow via SDS or TWM. I might also day trade NDX (NASDAQ 100) ultra short via QID.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
I shorted GDX at 48.54 today and covered it at 46.90, shortly after GDX filled it's downside gap at 46.86. Since the NEM Lead Indicator turned bullish (gap narrowed dramatically) near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, it looks like GDX/HUI/XAU will bounce early tomorrow.
I expect the NEM Lead Indicator to turn bearish again early tomorrow after a likely brief pop. I'll be looking to short GDX again early tomorrow.
The NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bearish, which jives with HUI/XAU entering Wave C of the short term Wave C downcycle (since 1-30-08) just after today's open. It was a very bearish -1.79% versus the XAU today/on 2-12, was a very bearish -1.18% versus the XAU on 2-11, and, was a very bearish -1.51% on Friday 2-8.
The XAU has a downside gap at 174.88, HUI has downside gaps at 428.45 and 425.04.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has downside gaps at 44.33 and 42.87 that will probably get filled in the short term Wave C downcycle (cycle low target 42.50), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Also, watch the XAU's downside gap at 161.75, and, watch NEM's downside gap at 47.39.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui). PowerShares DB Gold Fund (DGL) Put/Call Ratio = 28/64 = 0.4375 on 2-11 (http://www.cboe.com/data/mktstat5.aspx#DGL), which is an extremely complacent level. Below 0.5000 reveals a very high level of complacency.
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursay 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
For the fourth time in five weeks, the savvy non contrarian US Dollar Commercial Traders traded aggressively net long, see the last/sixth data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
GDX/HUI/XAU's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle of the short term Wave C downcycle (since 1-30-08) peaked just after today's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), RUT (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut), all hit short term Wave 2 cycle lows last Thursday 2-7, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Today's cycle high was probably a Wave 1 cycle high of the short term Wave 3 upcycle
The reliable WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.58% versus SPX (S & P 500) today 2-12, and, was a very bullish +1.13% versus SPX (S & P 500) yesterday 2-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
Based on SPX's intraday chart some (probably brief) strength is likely early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX bottomed and put in a large bullish inverse spike near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Also, note SPX's Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern today, prior to the large bullish inverse spike near session's end.
Since SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and RUT (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) have large bearish spikes on today's daily candle, I'll be looking to day trade SPX or RUT ultra short tomorrow via SDS or TWM. I might also day trade NDX (NASDAQ 100) ultra short via QID.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
I shorted GDX at 48.54 today and covered it at 46.90, shortly after GDX filled it's downside gap at 46.86. Since the NEM Lead Indicator turned bullish (gap narrowed dramatically) near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, it looks like GDX/HUI/XAU will bounce early tomorrow.
I expect the NEM Lead Indicator to turn bearish again early tomorrow after a likely brief pop. I'll be looking to short GDX again early tomorrow.
The NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bearish, which jives with HUI/XAU entering Wave C of the short term Wave C downcycle (since 1-30-08) just after today's open. It was a very bearish -1.79% versus the XAU today/on 2-12, was a very bearish -1.18% versus the XAU on 2-11, and, was a very bearish -1.51% on Friday 2-8.
The XAU has a downside gap at 174.88, HUI has downside gaps at 428.45 and 425.04.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has downside gaps at 44.33 and 42.87 that will probably get filled in the short term Wave C downcycle (cycle low target 42.50), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Also, watch the XAU's downside gap at 161.75, and, watch NEM's downside gap at 47.39.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui). PowerShares DB Gold Fund (DGL) Put/Call Ratio = 28/64 = 0.4375 on 2-11 (http://www.cboe.com/data/mktstat5.aspx#DGL), which is an extremely complacent level. Below 0.5000 reveals a very high level of complacency.
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursay 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
For the fourth time in five weeks, the savvy non contrarian US Dollar Commercial Traders traded aggressively net long, see the last/sixth data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:01 PM
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