SPX (S & P 500) Appears To Have Hit A Short Term Wave 2 Cycle Low Early Today
SPX (S & P 500) (and probably most major averages) appears to have hit a short term Wave 2 cycle low early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
This jives with today/2-7's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.28% versus SPX (S & P 500), that got more bullish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
I was looking to trade RUT's (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) intraday Wave 5 long near session's end, but, by the time RUT clearly entered an intraday Wave 5, then pulled back, there wasn't enough time left to do a day trade, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Tomorrow SPX/NDX/RUT should put in higher/Wave 5 cycle highs early on, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, with today's cycle high being the Wave 3 cycle high of the very short term upcycle that began shortly after today's session opened, and, is probably the start of a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
Tomorrow, after SPX/NDX/RUT do an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle, I'll probably be looking to trade RUT's (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) short term Wave 3 upcycle ultra long via UWM, because, RUT had the healthiest looking upcycle today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
HUI/XAU probably entered (or soon will) a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle of the short term Wave C that began on 1-30-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, which jives with the expected strength in the major averages/short term Wave 3 upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator has turned bullish the past few days, at +0.75% versus the XAU today/on 2-7, at -0.21% on 2-6, and, at +1.08% on 2-5.
NEM filled it's downside gap at 49.48 today, GDX filled it's downside gap at 46.75 today, the XAU filled it's downside gap at 173.22 today, and, HUI didn't fill it's downside gap at 325.04, but, may do so tomorrow.
The XAU's upside gap at 180.24 remains unfilled, GDX's upside gap at 48.15 remains unfilled, they were created 2-5. HUI has an upside gap at 451.56, GDX has an upside gap at 49.15, NEM has an upside gap at 53.23, all created 2-4.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has downside gaps at 44.33 and 42.87 that will probably get filled in the short term Wave C downcycle (cycle low target 42.50), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Also, watch the XAU's downside gap at 161.75, and, watch NEM's downside gap at 47.39.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The US Dollar was up sharply today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
Have you seen a single gold writer point out the fact that the US Dollar appears to have put in a very important bottom/cycle low? Goofiness and corruption tends to become rampant near very important cycle highs.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
This jives with today/2-7's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.28% versus SPX (S & P 500), that got more bullish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
I was looking to trade RUT's (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) intraday Wave 5 long near session's end, but, by the time RUT clearly entered an intraday Wave 5, then pulled back, there wasn't enough time left to do a day trade, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Tomorrow SPX/NDX/RUT should put in higher/Wave 5 cycle highs early on, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, with today's cycle high being the Wave 3 cycle high of the very short term upcycle that began shortly after today's session opened, and, is probably the start of a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
Tomorrow, after SPX/NDX/RUT do an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle, I'll probably be looking to trade RUT's (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) short term Wave 3 upcycle ultra long via UWM, because, RUT had the healthiest looking upcycle today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Erut&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
HUI/XAU probably entered (or soon will) a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle of the short term Wave C that began on 1-30-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, which jives with the expected strength in the major averages/short term Wave 3 upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator has turned bullish the past few days, at +0.75% versus the XAU today/on 2-7, at -0.21% on 2-6, and, at +1.08% on 2-5.
NEM filled it's downside gap at 49.48 today, GDX filled it's downside gap at 46.75 today, the XAU filled it's downside gap at 173.22 today, and, HUI didn't fill it's downside gap at 325.04, but, may do so tomorrow.
The XAU's upside gap at 180.24 remains unfilled, GDX's upside gap at 48.15 remains unfilled, they were created 2-5. HUI has an upside gap at 451.56, GDX has an upside gap at 49.15, NEM has an upside gap at 53.23, all created 2-4.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has downside gaps at 44.33 and 42.87 that will probably get filled in the short term Wave C downcycle (cycle low target 42.50), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Also, watch the XAU's downside gap at 161.75, and, watch NEM's downside gap at 47.39.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The US Dollar was up sharply today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
Have you seen a single gold writer point out the fact that the US Dollar appears to have put in a very important bottom/cycle low? Goofiness and corruption tends to become rampant near very important cycle highs.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:59 PM
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