I'm Looking To Short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) And NDX (NASDAQ 100) Today
I'm looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, closely tracks HUI, but is based on the AMEX Gold Miners Index, not the Gold Bugs Index (HUI)), to trade the short term Wave C downcycle that began 1-30, and, I'm looking to go ultra short NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) via QID today, to trade the short term Wave 2 downcycle that began early on Friday.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) filled it's downside gap at 48.19 early today, and, has more downside gaps at 44.33 and 42.87 that will probably get filled in the short term Wave C downcycle (cycle low target 42.50), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
Also, watch the XAU's downside gaps at 175.65 and 161.75, and, watch NEM's downside gaps at 50.50 and 47.39. I'm looking to short GDX after HUI does a countertrend Wave B rebound today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Upside gaps to watch today (created at today 2-4's open) are HUI's upside gap at 451.56, GDX's upside gap at 49.15, and, NEM's upside gap at 53.23. If they get filled or clearly don't, that will be a sign to look to go short.
The NEM Lead Indicator is bearish intraday right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, was a bearish -0.97% versus the XAU on Friday/on 2-1, and, was a bearish -0.87% versus the XAU on Thursday/on 1-31.
The WMT Lead Indicator is bearish intraday right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and, was a modestly bearish -0.35% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) on Friday 2-1.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
NDX entered a short term Wave 2 downcycle early on Friday 2-1, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, that should bottom in the 1725 to 1750 range, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
NDX did an intraday Wave A down then Wave B up on Friday, and, is in a Wave C down type move now, having probably completed an intraday Wave A (of Wave C) early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I'll look to go ultra short via QID in a countertrend intraday Wave B upcycle, that might have begun as I write this.
The Fed added an unusually large (for a Monday) $18 Billion (1 day Repo, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE) in credit today after adding a large $12 Billion on Friday, which should fuel index fund program buying. They desperately want it to look like their rate cuts worked, but, the drastic rate cuts are because the economy/credit market is in "bad shape," so, why should the market rally right now if the Fed is behind the curve and panicing, and, the economy/credit market is in bad shape?
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) filled it's downside gap at 48.19 early today, and, has more downside gaps at 44.33 and 42.87 that will probably get filled in the short term Wave C downcycle (cycle low target 42.50), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
Also, watch the XAU's downside gaps at 175.65 and 161.75, and, watch NEM's downside gaps at 50.50 and 47.39. I'm looking to short GDX after HUI does a countertrend Wave B rebound today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. Upside gaps to watch today (created at today 2-4's open) are HUI's upside gap at 451.56, GDX's upside gap at 49.15, and, NEM's upside gap at 53.23. If they get filled or clearly don't, that will be a sign to look to go short.
The NEM Lead Indicator is bearish intraday right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, was a bearish -0.97% versus the XAU on Friday/on 2-1, and, was a bearish -0.87% versus the XAU on Thursday/on 1-31.
The WMT Lead Indicator is bearish intraday right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and, was a modestly bearish -0.35% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) on Friday 2-1.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
NDX entered a short term Wave 2 downcycle early on Friday 2-1, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, that should bottom in the 1725 to 1750 range, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
NDX did an intraday Wave A down then Wave B up on Friday, and, is in a Wave C down type move now, having probably completed an intraday Wave A (of Wave C) early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I'll look to go ultra short via QID in a countertrend intraday Wave B upcycle, that might have begun as I write this.
The Fed added an unusually large (for a Monday) $18 Billion (1 day Repo, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE) in credit today after adding a large $12 Billion on Friday, which should fuel index fund program buying. They desperately want it to look like their rate cuts worked, but, the drastic rate cuts are because the economy/credit market is in "bad shape," so, why should the market rally right now if the Fed is behind the curve and panicing, and, the economy/credit market is in bad shape?
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:34 AM
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