A Very Strong Walmart (WMT) Led To A Strong SPX/NDX/RUT Rebound Today (Edited - Added Paragraphs 3 And 4)
A very strong Walmart (WMT, +3.21%) led to a strong SPX/NDX/RUT rebound today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
SPX (S & P 500) appears to have put in a very short term bearish double top countertrend Wave B cycle high today (Wave B of a short term Wave 2) versus yesterday's late short term Wave 1 cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX is probably in a short term Wave 2 downcycle, as discussed yesterday, if today was Wave B of Wave 2.
The short term Wave 2 downcycle should bottom tomorrow/Friday or Monday. It looks like SPX entered Wave C of Wave 2 just before today's close, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
In the next session or two I'll be looking to trade SPX (S & P 500) ultra long via SSO, NDX (NASDAQ 100) ultra long via QLD, or RUT (Russell 2000) ultra long via UWM. It looks like SPX and NDX will bottom before RUT, because RUT's short term Wave 1 peaked in rollover mode today, so, I'll probably trade SSO or QLD.
The cycles/Elliott Wave count discussed yesterday is basically the same for NDX/RUT, except that NDX's countertrend Wave B of a short term Wave 2 downcycle probably peaked today in rollover mode versus yesterday's cycle high (see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), and, RUT's short term Wave 1 upcycle probably peaked today in rollover mode versus yesterday's cycle high (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut).
The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.53% versus SPX (S & P 500) today, BUT, WMT was peaking in rollover mode on the intraday chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, has a bearish large spike on the daily candlestick chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, so, the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator probably doesn't portend much if any upside tomorrow for the market. Indicators are secondary to cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps, which are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
As I said before, likely Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000).
I did a new annotated XAU candlestick chart, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The XAU's intermediate term upcycle that began 8-16-07 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since October 2000 (HUI's started November 2000) probably peaked in dramatic rollover mode on 1-14-08 versus the 11-7-07 and the 5-11-06 cycle highs (5-11-06 obviously applies to only the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market).
Yesterday 1-30's HUI/XAU cycle high was the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 1-25's cycle high, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
HUI/XAU put in bearish slightly higher double top cycle highs yesterday 1-30 versus the 1-25 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
HUI/XAU's short term countertrend Wave B upcycle clearly broke down today, so, tomorrow I'll be looking to hold a short position (short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF) overnight. There might be a good entry point for shorting GDX early tomorrow.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.87% versus the XAU today/on 1-31.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high yesterday/on 1-30-08.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
SPX (S & P 500) appears to have put in a very short term bearish double top countertrend Wave B cycle high today (Wave B of a short term Wave 2) versus yesterday's late short term Wave 1 cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX is probably in a short term Wave 2 downcycle, as discussed yesterday, if today was Wave B of Wave 2.
The short term Wave 2 downcycle should bottom tomorrow/Friday or Monday. It looks like SPX entered Wave C of Wave 2 just before today's close, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
In the next session or two I'll be looking to trade SPX (S & P 500) ultra long via SSO, NDX (NASDAQ 100) ultra long via QLD, or RUT (Russell 2000) ultra long via UWM. It looks like SPX and NDX will bottom before RUT, because RUT's short term Wave 1 peaked in rollover mode today, so, I'll probably trade SSO or QLD.
The cycles/Elliott Wave count discussed yesterday is basically the same for NDX/RUT, except that NDX's countertrend Wave B of a short term Wave 2 downcycle probably peaked today in rollover mode versus yesterday's cycle high (see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), and, RUT's short term Wave 1 upcycle probably peaked today in rollover mode versus yesterday's cycle high (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut).
The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.53% versus SPX (S & P 500) today, BUT, WMT was peaking in rollover mode on the intraday chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, has a bearish large spike on the daily candlestick chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, so, the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator probably doesn't portend much if any upside tomorrow for the market. Indicators are secondary to cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps, which are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
As I said before, likely Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000).
I did a new annotated XAU candlestick chart, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The XAU's intermediate term upcycle that began 8-16-07 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since October 2000 (HUI's started November 2000) probably peaked in dramatic rollover mode on 1-14-08 versus the 11-7-07 and the 5-11-06 cycle highs (5-11-06 obviously applies to only the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market).
Yesterday 1-30's HUI/XAU cycle high was the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 1-25's cycle high, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
HUI/XAU put in bearish slightly higher double top cycle highs yesterday 1-30 versus the 1-25 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
HUI/XAU's short term countertrend Wave B upcycle clearly broke down today, so, tomorrow I'll be looking to hold a short position (short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF) overnight. There might be a good entry point for shorting GDX early tomorrow.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.87% versus the XAU today/on 1-31.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high yesterday/on 1-30-08.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:37 PM
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