Trade the Cycles

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

The Fed's 50 Basis Point Rate Cut Led To A Transitory Blowoff Short Covering Spike

The Fed's 50 basis point (0.50%) rate cut led to a transitory blowoff short covering large spike, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I'm still looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, but, it probably won't be today.

I'm getting comments regarding gold. Gold lags HUI/XAU at important cycle highs/lows (by months sometimes) as I've said many times.

Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high at 191.58 on 1-25-08, and, probably put in a very short term countertrend Wave B cycle high at 190.09 yesterday/on 1-29-08.

The 5 day Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish (was neutral at +0.00% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday/1-29), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

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