HUI/XAU Short Term Countertrend Wave B Upcycle Probably/Very Likely Peaked Today
HUI/XAU's brief but substantial short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (since 1-22 for HUI and since 1-23 for the XAU) probably/very likely peaked today, right after the open, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. Note the large bearish spike on today's daily candle, and, the bearish black candle indicates a close below the open.
Today's HUI/XAU decline was probably a Wave A type decline. Based on the intraday cycles/Elliott Wave count (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c), and, today's bullish NEM Lead Indicator, at +0.74% versus the XAU today/1-25, HUI/XAU will probably experience a (probably brief) countertrend Wave B rebound early on Monday, in which I'm going to look to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.74% versus the XAU today/1-25, was a very bearish -0.94% versus the XAU on 1-24, was a very bearish -1.92% on 1-23, -1.69% on 1-22, -1.11% on 1-18.
A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.
HUI/XAU peaked in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs, and, peaked in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX's (NASDAQ 100) monster short term Wave 1 upcycle since 1-23 peaked just after today's open (RUT's (Russell 2000) began 1-22 and peaked 1-24), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Note the bearish large spike on today 1-25's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, the bearish black candle indicates a close below the open.
The short term Wave 2 downcycle that began just after the open probably didn't bottom yet. SPX/NDX probably need to complete Wave B of Wave 2 and then do Wave C of Wave 2 on Monday. It looks like SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT's (Russell 2000) short term Wave 2 downcycle will probably bottom on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, after which I'll be looking to go "ultra" long via probably UWM, or, QLD, SSO.
Since SPX/NDX/RUT probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle lows this week (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), it's likely that they will put in modestly higher cycle lows than the intermediate term cycle lows that occurred this week, since cycle uptrends usually begin relatively flat, which is another factor pointing to likely additional weakness/downside on Monday for SPX/NDX/RUT. Always keep in mind the nature of cycles.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.09% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-25, and, was an extremely bearish -3.50% on 1-24.
Likely Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000).
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Today's HUI/XAU decline was probably a Wave A type decline. Based on the intraday cycles/Elliott Wave count (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c), and, today's bullish NEM Lead Indicator, at +0.74% versus the XAU today/1-25, HUI/XAU will probably experience a (probably brief) countertrend Wave B rebound early on Monday, in which I'm going to look to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.74% versus the XAU today/1-25, was a very bearish -0.94% versus the XAU on 1-24, was a very bearish -1.92% on 1-23, -1.69% on 1-22, -1.11% on 1-18.
A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.
HUI/XAU peaked in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs, and, peaked in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX's (NASDAQ 100) monster short term Wave 1 upcycle since 1-23 peaked just after today's open (RUT's (Russell 2000) began 1-22 and peaked 1-24), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Note the bearish large spike on today 1-25's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, the bearish black candle indicates a close below the open.
The short term Wave 2 downcycle that began just after the open probably didn't bottom yet. SPX/NDX probably need to complete Wave B of Wave 2 and then do Wave C of Wave 2 on Monday. It looks like SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT's (Russell 2000) short term Wave 2 downcycle will probably bottom on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, after which I'll be looking to go "ultra" long via probably UWM, or, QLD, SSO.
Since SPX/NDX/RUT probably put in Wave A intermediate term cycle lows this week (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), it's likely that they will put in modestly higher cycle lows than the intermediate term cycle lows that occurred this week, since cycle uptrends usually begin relatively flat, which is another factor pointing to likely additional weakness/downside on Monday for SPX/NDX/RUT. Always keep in mind the nature of cycles.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.09% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-25, and, was an extremely bearish -3.50% on 1-24.
Likely Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000).
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:14 PM
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